No, no I’m not asking for that. I mean, I would if you’d let me and if you are one of the four girl readers but if I did that, then I’d go from four girl readers to zero pretty quickly.  At the very least if I WERE suggesting that, I’d end it with a ‘please’. What can I say, I’m a very polite, disgusting male pig.  Nah, what I’m really telling you to do is hop aboard the Jon Niese bandwagon.  Didn’t know there was one, you say?  I can’t say I blame you, I think it’s probably more of a run down parade float with a missing wheel if it exists at all.  Really, what I’m having you think about here is three things.  One, Niese actually is pitching well at this point in the year so there’s merit in that alone.  Two, the Rockies are horrendous on the road this year as they rank in the bottom 10 of wRC+ away from Coors and have the highest K% of any team away from their own friendly confines.  Three, well, this is where it gets beautiful.  The Rockies also happen to be terrible against left-handed pitching which is exactly what Niese is.  The Rockies trail only the Padres and the Mets for K% against southpaws and are dead last against them in wRC+ at a dreadful 61.  It’s not very often a Niese can get you excited (PS, don’t read that out loud in public, especially near a school yard; just a friendly warning), but today is one of those days.  So get on your Niese (PPS, yeah, back to not reading out loud) and ride him to profit.  But enough about weird familial relations, lets’ get to it.  Here’s my kissing cousin hot takes for this Monday DK slate…

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Ian Kennedy, SP: $8,200 – Today is a messy pitching slate.  Not really hip on Johnny Cueto since his move to the Royals and though I like Chris Sale and his matchup, I’m assuming you already know he’s good so I’d rather talk a little about a possibly dead Kennedy.  The matchup isn’t perfect but I’m hoping Petco helps soften the lefty power against Ian today.  If you’re wondering, yes, I’m intrigued by Jay Bruce and even Joey Votto but if I’m doing multiple lineups, I’m on Ian in at least one LU today.

Brett Anderson, SP: $7,100 – If you place a mirror below the nose of the Nationals offense, you’ll wonder why there’s no fogged glass.  That’s because it’s been dead for a while.  Like, longer than you’re willing to admit a while.  I’m not putting Brett in every LU today but I have to bring him up based on merit alone.  Maybe he was a Boy Scout in his past?  I’m not sure, not something I try and concern myself with when awarding merit badges.

David Holmberg, SP: $4,700 – Not sure how closely you read the opening…heck, not sure you read the opening at all but teh Padres vs teh left are teh suck, much like teh Rockies.  I’m really hoping after 4 misspellings you’d realize that I was being teh intentional.  The Padres rank worst in the league vs LHP with K%.  At his price, you’re planning for 15 but have good reason to hope for more.  Or as I like to call it, punt with panache.  No, that’s not French for pancakes but I could see the confusion.  I mean, French is really English when you’re too drunk to pronounce the consonants.

Welington Castillo, C: $3,600 – He’s not a steal but given you don’t need to overpay at pitcher today, paying ‘up’ for Welington at home vs Harang won’t break your wallet.  Since we’re here, might as well just say an Arizona Diamondback stack is a good get.  At the very least, consider Paul Goldschmidt and David Peralta.

Jesus Montero, 1B/C: $3,000 – Scaling down just a tad more, the second coming of Jesus is a good call.  No, I don’t mean that in a religious way.  Mariners have Jesus Sucre already on their roster.  How many Jesuses (Jesusi?) does it take to make the Mariners a good team?  That’s more a philosophical question than it is a joke but I’m gonna say one since this one homered last night and has looked really good since his call up and lefty Wei-Yin Chen has experienced regression pretty hard of late.  Wait, he’s a lefty?  Yeah, don’t need to mention him later, Nelson Cruz and his hot bat is in play today as well.

Ryan Howard, 1B: $4,000 – I’m not all about picking on Rubby De La Rosa as his splits has settled a tad of late but I’m more than willing to take on old man Howard for the solo shot potential.  Why you ask?  Because Rubby has a 2.48 HR/9 rate against lefties on the year, dawg.  I’m sorry for calling you dawg.  I felt a close moment with you there.

Jonathan Schoop, 2B/3B: $3,900 – He has reverse splits so far this year but I thought it would be fun to point out what Schoop has done in limited play so far this year.  He has 8 HRs in just 37 games and is hitting above .300 while slugging .576.  So basically, he’s hitting like a 30 HR slugger right now and that’s a pretty cool thing at this price at 2B.  The reverse splits don’t get to play out immediately with Vidal Nuno on the mound but I don’t believe he survives the 5th.  I’d love a better park factor but Baltimore bats will most likely be underowned on a day where there’s slim pickins and I plan to take advantage.

Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B: $2,700 – Probably the only Padre to fear if you’re rolling Holmberg out there, Gyorko owns a 124 wRC+ for his career against lefties.  This could be one of the few days I don’t call Jedd by his nickname: Gyorkoff.

Cody Asche, 3B/OF: $2,900 – Remember those HR/9 numbers I mentioned about Rubby?  Yup.

Alex Guerrero, 3B/OF: $2,300 – Not gonna lie, hate 3B today.  I’ll either take advantage of Schoop or Gyorko’s 3B status or look to Guerrero so I can pay up elsewhere.

Kike Hernandez, OF/SS: $2,200 – Howie Kendrick pulled up lame last night with a hamstring injury so Kike should get some run.  You wanna pay up for SS, you go ahead.  Me, I’ll just roll with the kid who has a very unfortunate spelling of a Spanish nickname when you don’t add the accent marks.

Domonic Brown, OF: $3,600 – Ok, maybe I AM picking on Rubby today.  Sorry for all the lies, just wasn’t expecting to see Brown still under $4K at this point.  You hit 2 HRs in Petco over the weekend, you get my attention.  That’s just how life works.

Scott Van Slyke, OF: $2,600 – Scott hasn’t been the lefty killer he was last year but at this price, a double with an RBI or two will fill the stat sheet just fine for SVS.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

There doesn’t seem to be any weather issues to be concerned with for today’s slate which is how it should be.  It’s August, my only weather report should be what Paris Hilton would say: that’s hot.  Speaking of, it’ll be around 100 at game time for ARIvsPHI.  I know there’s a retractable roof there, see if they’ll let the heat creep in or not.  Could give some rise to those earlier HR suggestions off Rubby and Harang above.

Doing Lines In Vegas

The great minds in Vegas have Cueto at the biggest winning line of the day at -200.  Given that he’s facing Matt Boyd, it’s hard not to agree that KC will win but that doesn’t mean Cueto will fan enough bats to be worth it.  Just throwing that out there.  It is a bit worrisome to see Chris Sale in the CWSvsLAA tilt at only a -138 favorite after his recent blow ups but he doesn’t have to win to be effective and the o/u is still 7 so I’m staying in.  Just be leery an watch that line over the course of the day if you’re gonna come Sale away with me.  The SEAvsBAL game has seen a .5 run increase to its opening total and has been deemed a pick’em which furthers my interest in bats from both sides.  To no one’s surprise, the highest o/u on the day is ARIvsPHI at 8.5.  I expect runs o’plenty to be had there.  Finally, my Niese call feels a bit more cozy as the Mets are a -175 favorite vs Colorado.

 
  1. Big Money Matt says:
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    If you were streaming for deep mixed league would you stream Holmberg over Nuno or better off benching both?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Deep league, I’d consider Holmberg. Wouldn’t go near Nuno, personally.

  2. J-FOH says:
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    I can’t believe I’m hoping for Callapso to get the start today vs. Gio, he kills him for his career and might be a nice hail mary punt play.

    I hope you don’t get knocked on your Niese(ter)

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      What is Callaspo hitting as a Dodger? I wouldn’t think he’s done much, maybe I’m wrong. Either way, I have a hard enough time investing into BvP data, you’re sure not gonna get me pulled in with a guy like Callaspo…

      I kinda hope you get knocked on your Niese(ter) for forcing that pun, TBH. I say that with love…I expect better from you!

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Sky: you have always been my Mr Miagi of puns and I am Daniel-Son. I will shame myself with 20 slaps to the face

        I my 50/50 on BvP, when I need a punt play I go with it and thats all I was saying about Callapso.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          I’d suggest 20 slaps to the nuts, personally.

          I hear ya on BvP. Just so rare there’s enough data to use it for and by the time there is enough data, it always feels like ‘old data’. Like, yeah, Chase Utley is 25/87 against x pitcher with 4 HRs…but Utley is old so does the data matter now? And the pitcher lost velocity on his fastball and now throws his curveball more…does the data matter anymore? That’s all, wasn’t trying to pick on ya.

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Sky: I do the nut slaps every day to keep me grounded

  3. Teddy Heater says:
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    Sky,
    I liked Niese today as well, but I’m a little concerned about Sale, as he’s been hit the last 2 times out. LAA has the 2nd lowest Team BA & lowest K rate vs LH pitching out of today’s matchups (btw there’s 8 lefties going today on a short schedule, what are the odds on that?) You concerned about running Sale out there tonight? The 1st pitch went great, I threw a perfect sidearm strike and was complimented by Hector Santiago & Artie Moreno! It was an awesome experience and I wanted to thank you again for talking me out of Chavez as I chose Quintana, who brought home the victory. J-Foh got some great pics and I’m waiting for the Angels to email me the pics and video, so hopefully that will come this week. Tip of the cap to you & Thanks Again!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Sale is definitely a concern but all those reasons you mentioned are why I’m looking at him for tourneys along with Niese. His talent trumps the situational data for me with him. I wouldn’t roll him in cash, though, just so we’re clear.

      I saw the pic, that Razzball jersey was effing sweet! It’s beyond awesome that you got to go and I’m glad I could play some small part in getting you there. It’s so cool you got a compliment from Hector/Moreno as well. Looking forward to the vid!

      • Teddy Heater says:
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        @Sky: J-Foh and I were talking about DFS on Saturday at the game and he was talking a little strategy with me and I just wanted to pick your brain a little bit, because I do play everyday. Tourney’s are moonshots, hot corner etc. Cash games are leagues, 50/50’s and h2h? J was saying that the 50/50’s are solid plays and that you can actually see the % of started in DFS-Bot which blew me away because I didn’t realize that was a category on DFS-Bot (awesome job Rudy) Generally speaking in a cash game you want to go away from the majority for better odds? I’ve been doing ok in the tourney’s, but I rarely play the cash games. From what J was saying I’d like to start doing the cash games, because that seems like better odds. The inaugural Razzball jersey came out pretty good! I used to have a semi-pro team down here in LA and I have a handful of really nice jerseys, so I went to work and put together a AAA worthy jersey. I did all the lettering by hand & thankfully my wife agreed to sew all of it on and she did it all by hand! When I came up with the idea, she wanted nothing to do with it, because she knew how much work was involved. After seeing how much time I put into, she couldn’t let me ruin it with crooked stitching.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          I wouldn’t say ‘leagues’ are cash games. It’s more about how many people win money from it. Tourneys, you’re looking at probably 18% of the pool making money. H2H, 50/50, triple ups are more in line as cash games.

          The % started I believe is pulling from ESPN leagues, not from DK. I just now noticed that row since it’s not one I actually pay attention to; I’m not fully certain it’s context for DFS, maybe Rudy could shine some light on it!

          About cash games: it’s actually a majority rules scenario, don’t fight the trend, live it. So everyone talks up the best pitcher for the night, you should probably make him your SP1 and then look for variance elsewhere. Same goes for hitters. ‘Josh Donaldson is facing a lefty at Rogers Centre tonight and is $5300’ Those are the plays you’re trying to ‘match the consensus’. You’re going for the block and not the win with some of your cash game lineup moves. Your variance should come from lesser known plays or without having as much heat on them. And you want to aim for and take advantage of guys higher up in the lineup, which is less of a concern for tourneys since you’re just taking a guy for his upside rather than how many opportunities he’s going to get. It’s very much a different mentality but if you’re going to have long, sustained gains, it’s the way to play the game.

          And you have an excellent wife, Mr. Heater! I probably would’ve painted the letters on.

          • Teddy Heater says:
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            @Sky: THANK YOU for clarifying, that all makes perfect sense! One other question, I’m having an issue trying to sortable split stats post allstar break vs Left or Right handed pitching. It seems like every site has the splits, but I can’t them together. Ex; Nelly Cruz is hitting .381 18/12/16 post allstar, but how can I find what he’s done vs lefties only. Its seems like that would be an easy thing to find, but I’m having trouble locating it.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              No worries. Actually, not sure about those splits you’re searching for. I usually use Fangraphs and I’ve never parsed it down that far. Sorry man, wish I could help!

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