What does Josh Naylor (1B, $3900) have to do to earn DraftKings’ respect?
Over his last seven games, Naylor is hitting .444 with five extra-base hits while rocking just a 7% K rate. That’s a 240 wRC+, if you’re into that kind of thing. And he’s still under $4K.
Tonight he faces the Pirates’ Quinn Priester, who is making his MLB debut. Priester is a first-round talent, but with his 22% triple-A K rate he’s nothing Naylor can’t handle. PNC Park also plays nicely for lefty power.
Josh will be a fixture in my DFS lineups tonight, as will his brother, Bo Naylor (C, $2,600), another hot lefty.
Let’s see what else there is to like on tonight’s 10-game DraftKings slate:
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The Core (Players who will appear in most of my lineups):
Logan Gilbert, P: $9,800 – His last two starts against the Giants and Astros: 16 IP, 1ER, no walks. Gilbert might be finding another level, and he feels like a safe port on a stormy pitching slate.
Nick Pivetta, P: $7,300 – He’s been great in long relief and now he gets to start against the lowly athletics. Pivetta got up to 76 pitches last time out, so he should be able to give us enough length to justify his modest salary.
Matt Manning, P: $6,800 – He dominated the Blue Jays last time out and gets a much easier assignment today in the Royals. It feels kind of trappy, but on a slate where I want to spend up on bats, I’ll bite.
Mookie Betts, 2B/OF: $6,400 – The Dodgers would be some of those bats I want to pay for. Grayson Rodriguez is back, and his 7% K-BB rate in Triple-A tells me there’s still much to learn. I’m stacking Dodgers and hoping they take him to school.
Anthony Santander, OF: $4,500 – Let’s not ignore the other side of that game. It’s going to be 88 degrees in Baltimore with the wind blowing out. At this point, Emmet Sheehan is a decent pitcher but he lacks an out pitch and is susceptible to the long ball.
Zach Neto, SS: $2,800 – Leadoff, gettin’ hot, and he doesn’t cost a lot, Pump It Up!
Shohei Ohtani, 1B/OF: $5,800 – Our DFSBot is digging the Angels today and I can’t say I blame it. Luis Severino’s velocity is down and he’s given up 7 ER in each of his last two starts. I think the Angels end up as the chalk stack of the slate.
The Fades (Highly-owned players I will mostly avoid):
Shane McClanahan, P: $11,600 – Sugar Shane is my dude but I can’t pay nearly 12K for him coming off a DL stint to face the Rangers. Even if he’s successful, I think the Rays will be cautious here and get him out fairly early.
Jesus Luzardo, P: $10,200 – I think he’ll be the go-to guy for the field tonight, and I get it – he’s been money. The Cardinals have struggled against lefties lately, but they have a number of historic lefty mashers in ‘Nado, Goldy, and company. I’ll side with the larger sample here.
The Pivots (low-owned plays I’ll take a chance on):
Sonny Gray, P: $9,600 – The Mariners continue to struggle against right-handed pitching, yielding strong performances to Michael Lorenzen and Reese Olson in their last two games. Gray hasn’t been in top form lately but hopefully, he’ll come out strong from the All-Star break.
Jeimer Candelario, 3B: $3,700 – This is really about the whole Nationals/Cubs game. Here we have two pitchers in poor form and two stacks that are cheap enough to allow a spend-up at both pitcher spots but will be practically unowned.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 3B: $2,000 – We may lose this game to rain, but this is a general reminder to play the good rookies while they’re underpriced and underowned. Same can be said for Tyler Soderstrom (C, $2,600) and Zack Gelof (2B, $2,700). Hopefully, you’ll catch one of these guys for their Star Mitzvah!
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s a good chance the Giants/Reds gets rained out, either beforehand or during play.
Other games that bear watching are Dodgers/Orioles, Guardians/Pirates and Marlins/Reds.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I’m going to take two slight home underdogs that I think should be slight favorites. Give me the Rangers and Royals on the moneyline.
