Welcome back to MLB DFS, Money Monday edition. It’s me, Cousin Timmy, and I’m here to keep your Monday nice and green. We have a seven-game main slate on FanDuel tonight with first pitch set for 7:10PM ET in Miami. LAD @ PIT and MIL @ CIN start a bit earlier and are not on the main slate. If you are so inclined to play those games, they are on the main slate for DraftKings. I won’t be covering them but If you are playing DK today, check out the DFSBot to help build your lineups there. We have one true ace today, two young wannabe aces, and one former ace hoping to get back there. Which Rodon will you choose? I’ll help you out with my favorite plays of the day. Ready to win some money? Let’s go!
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Rodon gets Rocky Road today in San Francisco. Randal Grichuk, Jose Iglesias, and Connor Joe are all in the top-16 in hitting vs. LHP, Grichuk is second with a .478 BA. Colorado is hitting .311 vs LHP and an even better .326 on the road, both tops in the majors and. Did I just talk myself out of playing Rodon, mid-thought? I did, and that’s a first. I’m on the wrong Rodon here, where the F*** am I going? Happens to me all the time when Google maps decides to have shitty reception. New thought, play some Rockies, and fade 40% owned Carlos Rodon. Ok, so here is who I really like on the mound today.
Once top prospect has finally reached the majors with no pitch-count limitations. He’s thrown over 100 pitches in each of his last two starts. Gore has been solid in 21 innings so far. 1.71 ERA with a 25.9% K rate. For someone who’s thrown over 100 pitches twice and has not reached six innings yet concerns me a bit. 9 BB in 21 innings isn’t terrible but he needs to throw a few more strikes to make it easier for himself. I think tonight he can do that vs. the struggling Cubs. Over the past two weeks, the Cubs have a 24% K rate and a 78 wRC+ vs LHP. This Cubs lineup will be pretty weak today. Suzuki is the only guy that scares me of even getting a hit today. Heyward, Frazier, Schwindel, and now Wisdom are all hurt, so I’m not sure what kind of AAA lineup we are going to see but even more reason to like Gore.
The A’s are bottom of the barrel in many offensive categories this season but who’s right there with them? Detroit. Paul Blackburn has been stellar this season, throwing 5 innings in 4 of 5 starts. He’s supporting a 25% K rate with a 32.5 CSW%. He has not thrown more than 84 pitches, which concerns me a bit on FanDuel for the quality start points but I think he’s got a good chance to get through six tonight. The addition of Javier Baez has not helped the offense yet. Detroit has a 25.1% K rate (25th) with a .085 ISO and only 11 HR, both worst in the majors. This is a great spot for Blackburn tonight.
Catchers are pretty awful this year, if you’re playing season long you’re lucky to have one who’s batting above the Mendoza line, that’s .200. Varsho happens to be one catcher who is pretty good. He’s riding an eight-game hit streak and get’s Elisser Hernandez today. I had high hopes for Hernandez this season but he’s disappointed me time and time again. He’s only thrown one quality start in five appearances and just gave up 5 ER to these same snakes in his last start. Varsho in the leadoff spot is a solid option for us tonight.
My man! Aguilar is the reason I got into DFS. No joke. He hit two bombs playing for the Brewers back in 2019 that I saw live in Minnesota. I won big that night off his bat and never looked back. Well, he’s hot again and for this price against Hum-baby Castellanos, he’s a great play. Humberto Castellanos already has two starts where he’s recorded negative points. Jesus leads all 1B with a .529 OBP and 290 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
My favorite type of music is Jazz. Well, not really, but I do like it, and tonight I like it a lot. Jazz is taking the MLB by storm. He leads all 2B with a .412 wOBA has a hard contact rate of 36.9%, second only to Gleyber Torres. Castellanos is not a great pitcher, or even good right now, and even though Jazz is the highest priced 2B on the slate, he’s well worth it. A leadoff HR is in play today and if the Marlins are going to reach their 4.4 implied run total Jazz is likely to score one of those runs.
After a lengthy stint on the IL to start the season Rojas is back in action for the D-backs. The snakes tend to mix up their lineup based on matchups but vs. RHP (E. Hernandez tonight) Rojas should bat 5th in the lineup. For minimum price against a struggling pitcher, this is a great place for us to get some savings. If we are stacking Arizona, which I will in some lineups, Rojas is a solid play.
Flores smashes LHP. That has been his mantra since he was born. Smash lefties he says to himself all day long. Unfortunately for ownership purposes, Flores hit a Grand Slam last night so people will be excited about him today. That’s ok because he might hit another one tonight vs Austin Gomber. He does have a HR off Gomber already on his resume and the Giants should score some runs today in San Francisco.
Ok, if I’m fading Rodon then I should not be afraid to play guys against him right? Right. Randal Grichuk has a .500 OBP and .478 BA vs LHP, both top-10 in the majors. I have a feeling Rodon is going to get into some trouble today and Randal is the guy to take advantage of men on base. He’s pricey and going against the best pitcher on the slate and for that reason, he could win us a GPP.
There are a number of solid OF options today and while the Phillies will be popular, I prefer the White Sox and Luis Robert vs. Zach Plesac. This current Chicago lineup is hitting .301 vs Plesac, led by Robert who’s hitting .538 against him in his young career. Plesac made four starts vs. CWS in 2021. He gave up 23 hits and had a 7.56 ERA in 16.2 innings. I also like Jose Abreu and Tim Anderson today but Robert is my favorite play from this team. Luis has a .505 wOBA and a 247 wRC+ in the past two weeks.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Clear path to victory tonight with one dome game. Here comes the sun!
Doing Lines In Vegas
This is as close as I’ve got to doing lines in Vegas in over six years, so let’s make it count. I like the Padres run line tonight (-1.5) at (+135).
Good luck tonight and feel free to hit me up @TimmySperos on Twitter with any questions!