Corners Report: Let’s Get Real

Here we are, May, and hopefully your team isn’t dropping in the standings like Spencer Torkelson’s batting average!

Not to brag, but also to brag, my TGFBI team is like good good. This morning, my team was second in the league and 6th place overall. What’s the point of doing well in this if you can’t brag on it, right? So, how did I, an obvious fantasy baseball savant, attack the corner infield spots to get to a top ten ranking?

Third base, in retrospect, was a fade in drafts. Jose Ramirez isn’t performing at a top 10 pick level; he’s eighth at the position and 95th overall on the player rater. Austin Riley is okay at 44, but still not what you paid for. In fact, the top rated 3B is Alex Bregman, tenth overall, but you could have gotten this value in like round 6-7 (I know, 6 7!!!!!). Fading 3B worked for my squad as I ended up with Josh Jung after pick 200. He’s negative 1.1 value on the player rater, but in a deep 15 team league he’s at least tolerable. So yes, Jung is uninspiring, but at least he’s a low pick. That’s what the plan was; wait and just try to fill the spot with a guy who won’t kill you.

First base, I actually took Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. first and Bryce Harper second in this draft. They’re not carrying me (more on that in a bit), but they’re also providing positive value. I know they’re going to be productive and in my lineup, so I still think I made solid choices there.

If you want to know how I got to the top 6 in the league so far, it’s Pete Crow-Armstrong, Hunter Brown, Carson Kelly, and Seiya Suzuki carrying me. Maybe I should add catchers into this space sometime? Any the hoo, if I keep bragging on this team, you’ll know I kept it up!

Speaking of keeping it up, this week going to look at some guys who are off to strong starts and if they will be able to keep this up.

Jonathan Aranda: I just can’t pull the trigger on Aranda even though he’s leading the league in OPS. The reason? He’s only 3-18 vs. LHP to this point. One of my many flaws is checking details, and I’m not the kind of owner who likes to sub guys in and out of a lineup when they sit. Curtis Mead is getting starts against the lefties. I’m confident that the production is real; it’s just the playing time. Why do managers always sit people like him against the left handed pitchers? I mean, he’s leading the league in a stat. Why not try it for an extended period of time and see if you have a star?

Michael Busch: Another left handed bat that sits at times, but I don’t expect that to last long since the right handed platoon partner is the corpse of Justin Turner. I mean, the beard is still there, but I think that facial hair doesn’t decompose at the same rate as skin but have done zero research. On the Walking Dead, I don’t remember any bearded zombies, so Turner is probably just old. Given that Turner has zero extra base hits and a bat speed reflecting his age, Busch should be steady. His average has regressed a bit, and the expected stats have him right around last year’s .248. The slugging reflects a bit more power, and he does have six home runs on the season. I would keep Busch and expect around a .250 average and 20 dingers from here forward. You want a Cub bat this year, and Busch is a Cub henceforth; you want Busch.

Matt Mervis: Mervis has completely broken out with a 7 home run month, and a .748 OPS. The Marlins lucked into……..never mind. He’s striking out 38% of the time and has a bottom 1% whiff rate. His metrics support a .161 expected batting average. I know Triston Casas is out and Jake Burger is in the minors, but this is not the replacement you’re looking for.

Noelvi Marte: Marte has the pedigree and could be a post hype breakout this season. He’s batting .294, and that’s supported by a .321 BABIP. There’s no reason to think he won’t be productive at third base, at least as productive as anyone, right? I support a pickup of this player.

Javier Baez: Yes, you read that correctly. We can’t even call this a bounce back season. This is like Marvel Studios after two years of struggling having a triumph movie like the Thunderbolts. This is like Mumford and Sons releasing a banger album after seven years of nothing. This is like me starting a weight training circuit and expecting no back pain. Javy is hitting .309 and 3 HR, and the eligibility (3b/SS/OF) along with his past history makes me hope this is real.

Well, um, let’s look. He’s striking out at only 23%, but that’s on par with his past few seasons, and the last time he was good, it was over 30, so ignore that. The bat speed is still solid, if not elite. The chase rate with Baez is always going to be bad. He’s not a fundamentally different player.

Expected stats support an average of .243, which is about what I would expect. I would think he is worth a pickup, though. He had a hip surgery last year, and I imagine he’s now healthy after not being so for a while. It’s not probably THIS, but whatever it is, it would be worth sticking around and finding out.

BUMMER DUDES

Jake Burger was sent to the minors. Blaine Crim, a AAA veteran of three years, is up, but whatever. Crim was hitting .313 with an .879 OPS and 7 dingers, so if you want to catch lightning in a bottle, he could be the guy.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. is out with the Dreaded Oblique. He said he has multiple tears in it, which sounds not ideal. There’s a guy named Jorbit Vivas, and I guess you could keep an eye on a guy who’s hitting .319 in AAA.

Triston Casas had his knee rupture. Done for the year, and an unfortunate derailment for the rarest of breeds, a power hitting first baseman.

Here’s hoping for solid days and many breakouts!