Points Leagues: Running Numbers With Maikel Corleone

Coming into this season Kris Bryant was the rookie third baseman that had everyone going coo coo for Cocoa Puffs. After the year he had in the minor leagues in 2014 and the home run display he put on during Spring Training, who could blame anyone. Yet despite hitting 10 homers, driving in 42 runs and stealing 6 bases for 152 points, Bryant is not the rookie you were looking for. Be sure to read that last part in your best Episode 4 Obi-wan Kenobi voice. In 148 at bats (85 less than Bryant), Maikel Franco also has 10 home runs to go with his 123 points. With 0.783 points per plate appearance (PPPA) Franco is on pace to finish the season with 408 points (126 games), making him a top 10 3B, just ahead of Bryant who is on pace for 375 points. Considering Maikel has played 24 less games than Kris, that makes this even more noteworthy. Bryant is still the one I’d prefer to own long term, but if I had to settle for Franco, I wouldn’t be very disappointed.

When Bryant asked Franco which rookie 3B he thought fantasy owners couldn’t wait to get their hands on or who he thought was smearing his name on fantasy baseball message boards, Maikel grabbed Bryant by the face, planted one on his lips and said “I know it was you Kris. You broke my heart. You broke my heart…”

While we’re on third base, let’s stay here for a moment. Everyone loves third base. When I was in seventh grade third base was every guy’s fantasy. I knew a few that had actually made it there. Nowadays I think this happens in 4th grade. Judy Blume should write a sequel called “Tales of Fourth Grade Triple“.

It should be no surprise that Todd Frazier leads all 3B with 245 points (0.825 PPPA). At his current asswhoopin pace, Frazier is looking at a 572 point season. A third baseman hasn’t scored that many points since Alex Rodriguez scored 698 points back in 2007. Speaking of ARod, how happy are the owners that drafted this guy? Right now he’s the 4th best 3B in points leagues with 205 points (0.732 PPPA). I say trade him if you can get good value.

Any guesses who has the second highest PPPA at 3B? If you guessed either Nolan Arenado (0.811) or Josh Donaldson (0.694), you’d be as accurate as Brian Williams. The correct answer with a PPPA of 0.812 is Justin Turner of the Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles. He only has 147 points, but that’s because of his limited playing time. If Don Mattingly can get his shit together and Turner can be an everyday player my calculations say he could put up another 271 points. That would make him a top 5 third baseman from this point forward. Put it this way, I’ve already added him to my team. I even traded away Kris Bryant in a deal that brought me Gerrit Cole. Now I have Cole and Hamels. Every morning I email Wheel of Fortune suggesting the following baseball themed “Before and After” puzzle. “GERRIT COLE HAMELS”. Get it done Sajak. Get it done!

On Maikel’s behalf, I ran some numbers last night in an attempt to project how many points each player will score for the remainder of the season. These projections are based on their year-to-date performances and assume the player will see everyday playing time. And before you go into the whole “you know what happens when you assume” diatribe, save it. I’m already an ass and that’s that. In the meantime, let’s look at each position. A few words of caution. These projections don’t take into account the mythical regression or aggression fairies. What is the opposite of a regression fairy? Therefore, a preseason stud such as Robinson Cano didn’t even make the list. I manually added him for shits and giggles however. Obviously if he ends the season with 257 points it will likely go down as the most disappointing season in the history of fantasy baseball points leagues for a guy that was not injured.

Players are sorted by points projected to be scored over the remainder of the season (Projected column) in descending order.

Catcher

First Base

Second Base

Third Base

Shortstop

Outfield

These numbers are meant to help show you what’s been going on in the world of points. If projections were this easy, fantasy baseball wouldn’t any fun. But hopefully these charts can help you make some decisions going forward that will bring your team a few points closer to a championship.

Some players to note. A.J. Pierzynski is projected to be a top 5 catcher. My guess is he’s on your waiver wire. I own him in a two-catcher league, but am just too chicken to take the gamble in single-catcher leagues. Prove me wrong A.J. I’m all in on Albert Pujols. If he stays healthy I think he has a good shot at 50 homers. His 0.851 PPPA is behind only Paul Goldschmidt (0.968) and Anthony Rizzo (0.862) at first base. Is a “Zobrist” an artist that scores lots of points and has multi-position eligibility? I think so. I’ve already discussed 3B, but if I had to throw another name out there I’d go with Manny Machado. I think the shortstop to own going forward, other than the obvious, is Alcides Escobar. And as far as outfielders are concerned, I said it preseason, and I’ll say it again now, Denard Span is your man in points leagues.

I am working on a way to factor in preseason projections. This way a player like Robinson Cano can have a more realistic rest of season projection. I apologize in advance for any players that are misrepresented above due to injury.