Second Half OF Rundown: Streaks, Slumps And Surges

As we approach the home stretch (under 40 games left), it is time to make adjustments. We will discuss players who flipped the script, guys on heaters, players saving their best for last, and a few that may sink you if you stick with them. For some slumping stars, it’s another reminder to be patient, especially with those who have proven track records. Yes, I’m talking about Julio Rodriguez. I’m also talking about Kyle Schwarber, who had an uncharacteristically bad month. Time is running out, so pivoting away from slumping or fringe players who helped you earlier is necessary. It has become a what have you done for me lately game. My goal is to give you the data you need to make those calls, whether that means starting, benching, or cutting bait.

As usual, I’ll provide stats and nuggets along the way. All stats are through August 14 unless otherwise noted.

AL East

Baltimore: Tyler O’Neill has started 10 of 13 games since July 27, primarily occupying the clean-up spot with 4 HRs, a .286 AVG, and a .405 OBP during that 13-game stretch. The O’s still have back-to-back 3 game sets at Sacramento and Coors starting at the end of the month (schwing!). Yes, he must stay healthy, but this is a low-risk preemptive, short-term move that could provide late-season power production.

Boston: Ceddanne Rafaela has a slash line of 22/8/24/4/.310 with an .891 OPS in 27 second-half games. The power growth is an encouraging development, especially considering he had only 8 HRs in 90 first-half games and 16 HRs total all of last year.

NYY: Trent Grisham is hitting .475 with 4 HRs and 8 RBI in his last 5 games (August 9 to August 14). He hit .120 with a .195 OBP over his previous 21 second-half games. He has hit leadoff in 71 games this year. Prior to this 5-game hot streak, he hit .182 with a .291 OBP as the leadoff hitter (66 games). I don’t get it.

Tampa: Chandler Simpson leads the league with 16 SBs since July 1, batting .392 with a .394 OBP (.405 BABIP). His game is BABIP-driven (.330 career BABIP) and carries risk if he does not walk (3 BBs in that 34-game span). Remember his ugly stretch earlier where he went 30 games without a steal while hitting .184 from May 13 to June 19 (.213 BABIP).

Toronto: George Springer is the primary DH (played OF twice all year), which is great for keeping his bat in the lineup. As for the remnants of what’s left in the outfield after the Daulton Varsho trade: it’s a barren wasteland. Does it even matter?

AL Central

CHW: Sam Antonacci went through a rough patch and hit .222 with a .314 OBP over 27 games from July 8 to August 11, dropping his average from .293 to .273. He’s gone 5 for his last 12 and scored 3 runs over his last 3 games. Hopefully he’s getting on track after a small bump in the road. Monitor and/or bench until we see continued success.

Cleveland: Jo Adell got off to a slow start with Cleveland (3 for 22) before hitting HRs in back-to-back games. Maybe better days are ahead. I still think he can get hot and hit HRs in bunches (12 HRs in a 25-game stretch last year). He’s not had an extended streak or home run barrage the entire season. LFG.

Detroit: Max Clark is another example of trying to catch lightning in a bottle with prospect call-ups. These low-risk adds either hit or they don’t. Even if short-lived and fizzle out, they still can provide much-needed short-term production. He’s slashing 7/1/7/0/.264 over 13 games. SBs should come, and playing time looks secure with Riley Greene injured (sigh). It’s a small sample size, but watch the BABIP (he was batting .297 with a .435 BABIP on August 9).

KC: Maikel Garcia remains on the IL after seeing a hand specialist, but started a rehab assignment. He wasn’t doing much when healthy, and hand injuries usually aren’t great for hitters when they first come back. I expect nothing if he returns.

Minnesota: Maybe it’s time to call up Walker Jenkins as the Twins fight for a wildcard spot. Mid-August is a reasonable ETA. A player can accrue no more than 45 days on the big-league roster or have a maximum of 130 ABs (not PAs) to keep rookie status the following season.

AL West

Houston: Cam Smith is 17 for his last 43 with 11 Runs, 3 HRs, and 7 RBIs since July 31 (12 games). That .395 AVG comes with a .483 BABIP, but the production still counts. Ride him or grab him or do both while he is smoking hot.

LAA: Jorge Soler, the 2021 World Series MVP, was recently DFA’d. I am only highlighting this move to illustrate how the Angels just don’t know how to get out of their own way. The right move is to make Mike Trout the full-time DH, but of course they haven’t done it. I can continue to dream.

Sacramento: Zack Gelof returned from a knee injury on August 10 and is quickly making up for lost time. Hot schmotato alert: he’s gone 5 for 14 with 2 HRs and a .471 OBP since returning (4 games). Get him in your lineup or go get him if he’s available.

Seattle: Like clockwork, Julio Rodriguez is saving his best work for last. He has a .990 OPS in August through 12 games. His career OPS in August is .934, and September is .915. Set it, forget it, and enjoy the ride. The only question is how well he finishes. 

Texas: Going back to July 1, Ezequiel Duran has a slash line of 21/7/23/3/.272 with a .825 OPS over his last 37 games. Surprisingly, all 7 of those HRs have come at home where he has a .325 AVG and 1.051 OPS over that stretch (22 home games).

NL East

Atlanta: Not that walks are everything in our game, but Michael Harris II still carries considerable downside risk and is very dependent on BABIP. He has 3 walks since July 1 (39 games), but is up to 18 on the year, which surpasses his total from last year (16). Hold the applause.

Miami: Esteury Ruiz has quietly produced a decent season in limited time, going 32/6/11/28/.258 with a .377 OBP (78 games). Kyle Stowers is now out with a hammy. Perhaps Ruiz gets a starting gig or more playing time. So far, he’s only started in 2 of 4 games after the Stowers injury (oof!). He can be a huge asset in SBs, while not completely killing you in every other category.

NYM: After his routine hiatus, Luis Robert Jr. finally returned to action. While he has 4 HRs in 20 games after the break, it comes with a .206 AVG, a 34% K rate, and zero SBs. I never understand the allure with him in fantasy circles. He has only exceeded 100 games played TWICE in his big-league career. That one big year looks like an outlier to me.

Philadelphia: Everyone can breathe a sigh of relief. Kyle Schwarber is ok and his home-run derby hangover is over after a pair of jacks on August 9 and then an encore performance on August 13. Consider it only a blip on an otherwise fine season. He is fine.

Washington: Surprisingly, Dylan Crews has made a few guest appearances in the leadoff spot with James Wood out (I cannot believe I just wrote that). He’s slashing 15/4/9/3/.228 with a .324 OBP, a 9.5% walk rate and a 28.6% K rate over that period (25 games). He may be making progress considering we were essentially at ground zero earlier this year.

NL Central

CHC: Seiya Suzuki has a career .950 OPS in September and a career OPS of .824. He’s on pace for 29 HRs and 100 RBIs, but he may have a little more left in the tank. Let’s see if he can dial it up a notch during the final stretch as he has before.

Cincinnati: I will continue to remind you of the JJ Bleday home/road splits. He has 20 HRs and 47 RBIs on the season (93 games). 14 of those HRs and 33 RBIs have come at Great American Ballpark, where he has a .954 OPS (46 games), compared to a .627 OPS on the road.

Milwaukee: Jackson Chourio is having an odd season. Who had finding out about an injury on Opening Day where he missed 30+ games on their bingo card? Beyond that, it’s been a choppy season: 10 HRs / 1.013 OPS in June, and 4 HRs / .940 OPS in August (14 games). This is sandwiched around May (2 HRs / .721 OPS) and July (1 HR / .588 OPS). Hopefully he breaks this trend and finishes strong.

Pittsburgh: Bryan Reynolds known as B-Rey has been more like B-Trey in the second half. He and the entire Pirates season has seemingly gone down the toilet. After a very strong first half, Reynolds has been abysmal in 26 games after the break: 12/1/4/1/.188 with a 32% K rate. His .197 xBA backs up those stats. The numbers exclude his 3-hit game on Friday, August 14. I’d still bench him until he shows more signs of snapping out of it.

STL: Unfortunately, Jordan Walker has also suffered from home run derby hangover and some knee inflammation. He’s batting .240 with 1 HR and 10 RBIs since the break (25 games). Good news, he swiped bags in consecutive days over the last week. Hopefully he’s feeling better, and the dip is temporary.

NL West

Arizona: From June 19 to August 10, Corbin Carroll had 3 HRs while hitting only .187 over that stretch (45 games). He’s now homered in back-to-back games (August 11 and 12), and the buy-low window has probably slammed shut.

Colorado: Jake McCarthy keeps rolling with a 18/3/14/5/.283 line in 24 second-half games. His slash line for the season is 57/13/67/20/.296 in 107 games. The Rockies return to Coors next week for 6 games and have 22 of their remaining 40 games at Coors (he has a .904 OPS at Coors). Somehow, he’s still only 75% owned in Yahoo.

LAD: The good news for Kyle Tucker is that he has 4 HRs in 25 second-half games compared to 7 HRs over his first 91 games. The bad news is that he’s only hitting .195 in the second half. Interestingly, he does not like hitting in LA. He has just 2 HRs and a .192 AVG (.566 OPS) in 59 home games vs 9 HRs and a .275 AVG (.840 OPS) in 57 road games.

San Diego: No surprise here: Jackson Merrill is my focal point as he continues to play like a man possessed. He’s tied for second in HRs (9) and is fourth in OPS (1.014) since the break. He’s on pace for a 25/32 season.

San Francisco: Do they have any outfielders left? The last man standing is Jung-Hoo Lee. While not a star, he has gone 11/4/13/2/.250 with a .746 OPS over 24 second-half games. His full-year .759 OPS is higher than Julio Rodriguez and Kyle Tucker (gasp). As expected, his road OPS is considerably higher than at home (.848 vs .651). He lacks name value and power, and gets dinged for his park, but he’s been more productive than you think.

Thanks for reading. You can find me on X at @Toolsy3.