It was just two and a half months ago. You were pumped up. Sitting in front of your computer, ready to select your squad that you would cultivate and cherish for the next 6 months to give you the glory you so deserve, and then… It all went to hell, specifically up the middle. Your guy got hurt, was too old, or too bad. But we look today, and of the 14 Short Stops and 6 Second Basemen, only 3 Short Stops (Witt jr, Elly, Abrams) and 1 Second Baseman (Turang) have maintained their top 100 status so far this year. So let’s look at what has happened and see what we can learn.
Don’t Draft Hurt Guys: One thing that we know is that guys who get hurt tend to get hurt again. Francisco Lindor is an abject lesson in this. Lindor went 30/30 last season, and was a clear top 20 pick coming in. Then, on the first day of Spring Training, he broke his hamate bone. People, including me, thought oh good, I get him at a discount. Especially when he was going to be ready for opening day. But the thing is… he got hurt again. And again. And even when he wasn’t hurt, he was a shell of himself. Jackson Holiday, with a similar hamate injury, just returned at the end of May. Corey Seager missed 60 games last year, and he’s on the shelf again. These guys can’t contribute to your team if they aren’t playing.
Looking at it from the other lens, we can see that the healthy guys are where you can expect some breakouts. Marlins Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards showed they can stay healthy last year, and it’s paying dividends for fantasy owners this year. Brice Turang has not had a visit to the IL in his career. And Ozzie Albies showed he could stay healthy last year, and is showing it again. These players are making you win.
Don’t Draft Old Guys: Middle infield is a young man’s game. You need a special type of athleticism to play there and endure the grind. I believe we can’t make the cut off over 30 anymore (like for Willy Adames, Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, and Trevor Story). I now think we can’t trust anyone who has hit free agency. Bo Bichette has been an abject disaster this year. Nico Hoerner has fallen off in the average department to the point where he’s just an average player. It looks as if last year was just a mirage to where you had veterans doing well. It goes to show that past performance does not necessarily indicate future results.
On the other side of the coin, JJ Wetherholt is on pace for 20/20 and maintaining it for a surprising Cardinals team, which I still don’t get. Neither CJ Abrams nor Elly De La Cruz have hit arbitration yet, but are hitting the crap out of the ball (or at least, Elly was prior to the hamstring strain). Even Colson Montgomery has shown that he can hit bombs and continue to hit bombs. Young guys are the way to go.
Beware the 1 year wonders driven by Batting Average: Luck is definitely a thing in baseball. And the question always becomes “Is it Sustainable?” Generally, the answer is no. Geraldo Perdomo, for example. Last year, he broke out with 20 bombs, hitting .290. Mind you, he never hit more than 6 in a previous season, and his previous high batting was .276 in half a year. Maikel Garcia qualified at 2B, after his breakout 2025, where he hit .286 with 16 bombs. Again, no previous year had come close to that. And this year, he’s hitting .268 with only 3 homers on the campaign.
This year, two guys are hitting well that I am not touching with a 10 foot pole in next year’s drafts. Brayan Rocchio has been a surprise for Cleveland, hitting .295. He’s never demonstrated that ability previously, and I am gun-shy to put him in my sights for next year. Ezequiel Duran is another perfect example of this. Hitting .294 has driven most of his value, especially with him not approaching anything resembling his 2024 level of power, and having a pedestrian 5 steals. He’s not going to be a target of mine either.
Brandon Lowe laughs at your age 30/free agency cutoff.
Great analysis!!
I got Casey Schmitt in a trade. Would you trade him with Austin Riley or Bo Bichette for Turang or Albies?
Thanks!!!!
He hasn’t done anything memorable, but Holliday has been back for a couple weeks.
Zeke Duran or Nicky Gonzalez?
Does Gunnar qualify for one of the biggest busts of the season? Apologies to Morgana, the Kissing Bandit. Looks like 2025/2026 is more inline with who Gunnar is now as opposed to his All World production of 2023/2024, which is a far memory