Happy hump day everyone! The first week of DFS after the deadline is always an interesting one. Pay close attention not only to playing time, but where they are batting in the order. The Cubs are the prime example, shipping out 3 of their stars, opening plenty of prime real estate at the top of their order. After all, fantasy sports, above all else, is about opportunity.
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Starting Pitcher
Lucas Giolito, SP: $9,200 – The Royals are tied for last with a 67 wRC+ since July 1st vs RHP, with a team slash line of .215/.273/.340.
Shohei Ohtani, SP: $10,700 – The Rangers are 28th in wRC+ since July 1st vs RHP, and with the trade of Joey Gallo, they are even more shorthanded.
Cather/First Base
Anthony Rizzo / Gary Sanchez, C/1B: $4,000 / 2,800 – Somehow, some way, Matt Harvey will make his 22nd start of the season tonight. Harvey has posted an ERA below 6 just once since the start of the 2017 season. No, you didn’t read that wrong.
Josh Bell, C/1B: $3,100 – Chase Anderson has really struggled over the last two seasons. He’s split time between the rotation and the pen for the Phillies. Chase is a flyball pitcher and has been prone to giving up homers. He’s done so in 6 of his 8 starts.
Second Base
Ian Happ, 2B: $3,000 – Happ has been a complete disappointment this season. Although, with the departure of Rizzo, Bryant, and Baez, he finds himself batting in the top of the order for the Cubs. Fantasy is all about opportunity and a good RBI spot in the lineup at Coors field is as good as it gets.
Ozzie Albies, 2B: $3,600 – Albies is a much better RHH than LHH. He has a 147 career wRC+ vs LHP, conversely, he only has a 96 wRC+ vs RHP. Combine that with J.A. Happ’s inability to pitch, and you should come out smelling like roses.
Third Base
Rafael Devers, 3B: $4,100 – Devers is quietly having a great season, with 27 HRs, a .931 OPS, and a wRC+ of 146; good enough for a tie of 10th best among qualified hitters. Casey Mize has had a good second showing in the ‘bigs’. But his FIP is over a full run higher than his ERA and has been susceptible to giving up the long ball early on in his career.
Rougned Odor, 3B: $3,200 – If you’re loading up against Matt Harvey, don’t forget about Odor. Odor is someone whose fantasy value solely resides in the DFS landscape. His big power and less than stellar batting approach makes him a high-risk, high-reward play.
Short Stop
Corey Seager, SS: $3,000 – He has struggled some in his four games since returning from the IL. He’s still an elite hitter in a very good lineup. Let’s cash what should be his basement price for the season.
David Bote, SS: $3,000 – Bote is another player benefiting from the departure of the Cubs “big three”. He currently finds himself in the heart of the Cubs order. If you’re looking to stack Coors, there are plenty of values to be had.
Outfield
Joey Gallo, OF: $3,500 – Any, and all Yankees’ stacks should include Gallo tonight. He’s projected as one of the highest point scores on the night. He has yet to homer since being traded to the Yankees and a start against Matt Harvey might be what the doctor ordered.
Sam Hillard, OF: $2,600 – Hillard embodies 2021 MLB. He has huge power, and an even larger K rate. At $2,600, you’re essentially getting a free pass to elite upside tonight at Coors.
Jorge Soler, OF: $3,300 – J.A. Happ has given up at least 3 runs in 6 of his last 7 starts. All told, that’s 33 ERs in 39 IP. Woof.
Kyle Tucker, OF: $3,600 – Tucker has some eye-popping splits. They aren’t bad enough to warrant a platoon but it is something to monitor. He has .391 wOBA vs RHP and a .305 wOBA vs LHP. His ownership will be low tonight, and rightful so with Max Scherzer on the mound. Although the narrative around Scherzer is that he can give up homers with the best of them at times due to his aggressive pitching style. If you playing one of the chalky stacks tonight, I like Tucker as a low-owned, leverage play.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The only game we need to watch is the Yankees game. There is a small chance of rain at first pitch, with it increasing throughout the night.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Red Sox (Eduardo Rodriguez) at Tigers (Casey Mize) O/U 8.5 runs scored – take the over. The Tigers, the lowly, lowly Tigers, have the 9th best wRC+ since July 1st. Better yet, they have 130 wRC+ vs LHP over that time; good enough for 4th best. Rodriguez has been better than his 5.60 ERA would indicate as his FIP is almost 2 runs lower. However, there is no exact science in knowing when regression will hit, or have a slump continue. Mize has had a solid season but he’s not bulletproof and the Red Sox have a daunting lineup.
