Welcome to another installment of Tuesday MLB DFS here on Razzball. We have a near full slate of games on tonight’s main slate, with near perfect weather in most places. It’s warm across the land and bats are beginning to show life. As hard as it is to believe, we’ve gone almost a full week without a no hitter. Seasonal stats are beginning to become more useful as we near the 50 game mark for most teams.
We welcome the return of a decent arm in the Mets’ rotation as average MLB Starting Pitcher Jacob deGrom returns to the mound after missing two starts due to side issues. But seriously, he couldn’t ask for a better matchup to return to as he takes on the Rockies at home. This slate isn’t lacking in stud arms as there are 8 or 9 guys who are likely aces on seasonal teams. However, out of the group of 8 or 9, I’m going to focus my energy on 2 or 3. Good luck tonight, stay positive and visualize that bank roll spiking like Bitcoin in April. Visualize your success! You HAVE to believe it to be true before it can happen. Go with your gut and do it with confidence. Let’s go!
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Starting Pitcher Targets
Jacob deGrom, SP: ($12,000) – Essentially the best SP in baseball facing the worst road offense in baseball vs RHP. He was throwing 102 mph in his rehab outing so I don’t think he’s going to be held back. This is an ideal matchup. The only questions are; how deep will he go? And can the Mets score a run to get him the W?
Kevin Gausman, SP: ($10,800) – Quietly doing everything a guy can do on the mound and still doesn’t seem to be getting the respect he deserves. I don’t want to hear another NL Cy Young convo without mentioning Gausman. He’s getting plenty of swings and misses (14.8%), limiting hard contact and inducing 45% ground balls. He’s only given up 1 home run in 39.2 innings on the road to this point and will look to keep his dominance going tonight in Arizona.
Joe Musgrove, SP: ($8,400) – This is not a plug to fade Burnes, I think he has as good a chance as any to reach that tourney-winning number. However, I’m going to the other side and using Musgrove vs the Brewers who strike out 26.3% of the time and are one of the worst run-producing offenses in baseball vs righties. Musgrove’s underlying numbers show that he is not a fluke this season. He owns a 2.61 SIERA, 2nd to only Gerrit Cole, a 2.47 xFIP (2nd), and a 34.7% K% (7th). Great matchup, and is $2,000 + cheaper than all the other aces on the slate.
First Base
Matt Olson, C/1B: ($3,600) – Olson crushes RHP and unlike his 25.7% K rate vs Lefties, Olson has as many walks as Ks vs righties, both 12.5%. Gilbert hasn’t shown much in his first two go-rounds in the Mariners rotation.
Brandon Belt, C/1B: ($2,800) – All 8 long balls have come vs RHP along with a .301 ISO, .377 wOBA, and a 141 wRC+ vs RHP, all great numbers. He gets a good matchup vs righty Corbin Martin.
Second Base
Brandon Lowe, 2B (OF): ($3,500) – Still striking out a ton, but his underlying numbers look much better in May. He’s got a great matchup at home vs Keller and will be hitting in the middle of a lineup that is on fire right now.
Third Base
Rafael Devers, 3B: ($3,800) – Just like the Rays, the Red Sox should be a solid leverage stack with ownership down vs Morton. Devers owns a 1.058 OPS, .405 ISO, and .431 wOBA vs righties this season. That’s fantastic. Let him rip with a lower ownership than usual.
Joey Wendle, 3B (2B): ($3,300) – I’m thinking the Rays stack will stay lower owned due to all the other nice spots to go for offense tonight. Wendel has been straight up solid this season and is hitting .345 with all 6 homers and 3 SB vs RHP this season. Let’s see if the Rays can make it 12 in a row tonight, eh?
Short Stop
Brandon Crawford, SS: ($3,000) – Read what was said about Brandon Belt, boost the numbers vs Righties and that’s what you get with Crawford. Ownership at SS is going to be spread out amongst enough to make Crawford a top value in terms of salary, ownership, and overall likelihood he is a top scorer at the position.
Francisco Lindor, SS: ($2,700) – Struggling or not it’s still Lindor. He’s great value and even though he hasn’t been particularly good vs LHP, he’s been better against them than vs RHP. He gets a returning Kyle Freeland tonight at home. I can’t see Lindor’s price dropping much lower this season. The bat is coming, and though there’s not much support in this injury riddled lineup, Lindor could bust out at any time.
Outfield
Austin Meadows, OF: ($3,900) & Randy Arozarena, OF: ($3,800) – A combo of price, ownership, and probability of success are the reasons I like these two. With so many other places to go, the Rays should be left with lower ownership than they should have. The prices of these two are going to make a Rays stack with the both of them hard to get to for many. I love the Rays tonight vs Keller, and I think the prices here are warranted. With Betts, Stanton, Judge, Soto, and Ohtani all-around similar or cheaper prices, it’s likely one of the two, if not both, give you the leverage needed to get up there in the standings tonight.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF: ($3,000) – I’m not a fan of the ownership but this might be eatable chalk. You won’t see his price this low again this season and Matz has gotten crushed by righties. I like the Yankees tonight but feel as though their ownership won’t give you the leverage you need to take down a big tourney. They could very well be the highest scoring team tonight, but I’m going to stick with Stanton as a one-off and hope my other spots go off with much less ownership.
Mike Yastrzemski, OF: ($3,100) & Alex Dickerson, OF: ($2,400) – Notice a Giants trend? The difference here is these two might have higher ownership than Belt or Crawford, however, a Giants stack overall should get you the leverage you need. I’m good with a Belt/Crawford mini-stack, or a full-on 4 man with all 4 giants mentioned here.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No sign of rain throughout the slate. Wind blowing out pretty heavily in Boston, New York (Mets), and Minnesota.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I’m going with the over in the Royals @ Rays game that sits at 8.
Favorite Stacks: Rays, Giants, A’s
Fades: Nats, Twins (ownership).
