We have a rare, extra-large Thursday slate today with the main FanDuel slate featuring eight games and the all day featuring fourteen. I guess MLB has realized that if they want this season to ever end, they may have to calm down on the off days. We’ll just be focusing on the main slate here and for that slate, I’m loving me some Dinelson Lamet ($9,400,) as a pivot from Shane Bieber (more on him later). Lament is the one pitcher on the board tonight I would peg to out-strikeout Bieber and he has the advantage of home field. The Rangers have MLB’s fourth worst team OPS. Them and the Marlins (who have played five fewer games) are tied for the fewest homers hit with just seventeen (Discounting the Cardinals of course, who have played eleven games and hit twelve homers and I think are still an MLB team?). Lament has K’s for days, sporting an 11.4 K/9 and while the 1.59 ERA is a tad lucky compared to the 2.79 FIP, it’s nothing to shake a stick at and I think he’ll be just fine tonight.
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Shane Bieber, SP: $12,000 – Bieber will be the chalk play and for good reason, he’s who I would go with in your cash game lineups. The Pirates are DFL in team OPS and Bieber has been Cy Young worthy in the early going.
Sean Manaea, SP: $6,300 – Manaea has been FAR from Cy Young worthy, but his 4.05 FIP vs. 7.65 ERA suggests he’s been unlucky so far. Not great, but still unlucky. Arizona’s offense has been pretty meh and Manaea is at home. Expect some regression and possibly a win, which at this price is all you can ask for.
Mitch Moreland, C/1B: $3,300 – Moreland has been hot when he plays and he’s typically in the middle of the lineup. Asher Wojciechowski and his career 5.61 ERA should keep the hits coming for Moreland.
Miguel Sano, C/1B: $2,900 – High risk, high reward, exactly the kind of player that wins GPPs.
Keston Hiura, 2B: $3,100 – My auto play at second base is starting to get priced up, but he’s still worth it at this price tag. It’s looking like Jake Odorizzi will be starting for Minnesota and Keston should be able to rack up some points in the match-up.
Wilmer Flores, 2B: $2,500 – As of right now, the Angels starter is listed as TBD. Whoever gets the start, Flores is another high risk, high reward play. Bonus if the starter is fresh call-up or bullpen arm. (UPDATE: It’s listed this morning as Jose Suarez who had a 7.11 ERA last year…that’ll do)
Rafael Devers, 3B: $2,800 – I swear, he’s made an appearance in every article I’ve written this year. Asher alphabet soup doesn’t make me run away from Devers now and neither does his price tag.
Marcus Semian, SS: $2,900 – Alex Young is starting for Arizona and I could see stacking some Athletics against him tonight.
Jorge Polanco, SS: $2,700 – Polanco is batting .300 and hitting atop a Twins lineup that I like to knock Brandon Woodruff around a little bit tonight. That puts him in a prime spot to score some runs.
A.J. Pollock, OF: $2,900 – Kikuchi has looked better this year for sure, but you know that Kikuchi from last year is just itching to make an appearance. The Dodgers could easily be the team that causes him to resurface and Pollock should be right in the middle of it at a great price.
Shohei Ohtani, OF: $2,900 – Ohtani remains underpriced and Kevin Gausman remains terrible.
Mark Canha, OF: $2,700 – There are plenty of great OF options at much higher prices. OF is usually where I end up paying up, but sometimes you just need that one cheaper option to get you by. If you find yourself digging in the bargain bin, Canha is a nice pick with his pop and the platoon advantage on Alex Young.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
We have a clear night for baseball!
Doing Lines In Vegas
Kershaw and the Dodgers are the biggest favorites tonight, which I suppose makes sense. Still, I’d rather pay up a bit for Bieber, or save some dollars and go with Lamet. CLE@PIT does feature the lowest over/under at 7.5 runs. LAD@SEA and ARI@OAK are tied for the highest run totals at 9 runs each. I expect the Dodgers to be scoring the bulk of those runs, so stack accordingly.
