On Wednesday I gave you my second half projections for hitters. At the request of a commenter I have decided to see what I can come up with for starting pitchers. While projections are a slippery slope, I going to give it the old college try anyway. I’ve come to realize that you really can’t be wrong when making projections. It’s impossible to be right, so by process of elimination, how can I be wrong. Anyone follow that absolutely twisted logic? Me neither.
As I did with my hitter projections, I have merged my weighted preseason projections with weighted year-to-date stats to generate rest of season projections. Hocus-pocus. Abracadabra. I present my second half visions.
Given standard points systems do you have any guesses who might be projected to score the most points in the second half. Despite currently being on the disabled list, Clayton Kershaw still manages to come out on top. Kershaw is in line for another 334 points. Obviously this is all predicated on him making a quick return to action. The longer he’s out, the less points he will score. But then again, that’s basic math. Or is it just common sense?
Let’s take a look at wins and strikeouts.
Wins
When the dust settles, Chris Sale will lead the Major Leagues with 23 wins. Man do I wish I owned him somewhere. After Sale is Johnny Cueto with 21 wins. Both Jake Arrieta and Stephen Strasburg end the season with 20 wins.
Chris Sale – 9
Aaron Sanchez – 8
Johnny Cueto – 8
Jake Arrieta – 8
Stephen Strasburg – 8
Clayton Kershaw – 8
Steven Wright – 7
J.A. Happ – 7
Chris Tillman – 7
Max Scherzer – 7
Madison Bumgarner – 7
Jose Fernandez – 7
David Price – 7
Strikeouts
Max Scherzer is going to fall just a few strikeouts short of 300 this year, finishing the season with 294. That will be 27 more than Jose Fernandez (267), and 34 more than both Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner (260). Despite his current ERA (4.34), David Price will strikeout 252 batters. After Price is another struggling pitcher, Chris Archer (234). Chris Sale and Stephen Strasburg end the season with 231 strikeouts.
Max Scherzer – 130
Clayton Kershaw – 115
Madison Bumgarner – 114
Jose Fernandez – 113
David Price – 112
Chris Sale – 108
Chris Archer – 104
Corey Kluber – 102
Noah Syndergaard – 100
Stephen Strasburg – 99
Jake Arrieta – 99
Drew Pomeranz – 94
Danny Salazar – 93
Johnny Cueto – 90
Fantasy Points
It should come as no surprise to see Kershaw at the top of the list. If it does I can safely say that your reading comprehension is piss poor considering I let the cat out of the bag earlier in this post. The names that follow make up the list of who’s who for fantasy baseball starting pitcher studs. No huge surprises here at this point. Although preseason many would not have expected to see Drew Pomeranz, Aaron Sanchez, John Lackey or Justin Verlander.
Clayton Kershaw – 334
Max Scherzer – 323
Madison Bumgarner – 317
Chris Sale – 302
Johnny Cueto – 292
Jose Fernandez – 276
Jake Arrieta – 276
David Price – 274
Stephen Strasburg – 272
Corey Kluber – 265
Noah Syndergaard – 252
Jon Lester – 248
Danny Salazar – 239
Drew Pomeranz – 237
Masahiro Tanaka – 237
Zach Greinke – 236
Aaron Sanchez – 233
Cole Hamels – 233
John Lackey – 231
Justin Verlander – 227
Here are some pitchers that “should” have better second halves than their first.
James Shields, Brandon Finnegan, Sonny Gray, Dallas Keuchel and Chris Archer.
AL CY Young – Chris Sale: 227 IP, 23 W, 6 L, 231 K, 47 BBI, 186 HA, 82 ER
NL CY Young – Clayton Kershaw: 220 IP, 19 W, 4 L, 260 K, 21 BBI, 145 HA, 44 ER
If you are looking for projections for a specific pitcher, just ask in the comments section.
The Pomeranz going marching one by one, hurrah, hurrah…
