For these pitcher pairings, I’m going to be using our (my) 2018 fantasy baseball rankings. Notably, the top 20 starters for 2018 fantasy baseball, top 40 starters for 2018, top 60 starters for 2018, the top 80 starters for 2018 and top 100 starters. You can also just go to our Fantasy Baseball War Room. Okay, formalities out of the way. *rolls up sleeves, makes farting noise with hand under armpit, rolls down sleeve* Let’s get busy! Now, what is a pitcher pairing? It’s your plan for putting together a fantasy staff. A course of action. If you have A pitcher, which B, C, D, E and F pitcher goes with him? Which is different than ‘F this pitcher,’ that’s what you say in May. You should have six starters. The sixth starter is Josh Hader or take whoever you want. I suggest an upside pick. Hader comes to mind. Or Mike Montgomery. Sean Newcomb also comes to mind. Luiz Gohara anyone? I’m going to assume you’re in a 12 team, 5×5 and some variation of 9 pitcher leagues like the Razzball Commenter Leagues. Speaking of which, the RCL league signups will begin on Monday. (NOTE: What you are about to read is massively confusing. If it were found scribbled in a notebook, the FBI would be watching me. If Ed Kemper stood up and read this at the next prison Meet N’ Greet, no one would blink an eye.) Anyway, here’s pitcher pairings for pitching staffs for 2018 fantasy baseball drafts:
TIERS
If your first pitcher is from the tiers: “La Croix bacon-avocado cheeseburger flavor,” or “Skunked can of La Croix bacon-avocado cheeseburger flavor”
These tiers are from Scherzer to Carrasco. If you draft someone from these tiers, you’ll probably lose your league or get lucky with your hitters. If you do draft one, I wouldn’t take another pitcher until the tiers, “Their intellectual property is a lack of IP” and “Keds or banana peels crafted into slippers.” Take one pitcher from one of those two tier, then grab another starter from one of those two tiers or, “Candice Huffine.” Then grab another starter from, “Candice Huffine,” or one from “Stunod or in a mirror it’s donuts” or “Dollar Store condoms.” Then one starter from Dollar Store Condoms or “Imagine a St. Bernard with his head out the window, his name is Caution.” Finally, draft one more starter from “Imagine a St. Bernard with his head out the window, his name is Caution.” So, you’d have a rotation something like Corey Kluber, Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Dinelson Lamet, Miles Mikolas and Luiz Gohara. Or you could have Chris Sale, Lance McCullers, Rich Hill, Tanner Roark, Mike Montgomery and Jerad Eickhoff. Either of those staffs will probably have 13’s in every pitching category in a 12 team league.
If your first pitcher is from the tiers: “Draft, but don’t be a Panty Mouth”
This tier goes from Severino to Verlander. I’d pair any of them with anyone in their same tier or in the tier, “The shruggle is real,” “Their intellectual property is a lack of IP,” or “Keds or banana peels crafted into slippers,” but it’s not mandatory you grab two in the first two tiers. In other words, if I drafted Luis Severino, I could see taking Robbie Ray or Carlos Martinez or Archer or anyone from any of those tiers, but I wouldn’t reach either. If you do take two guys from those first two tiers, then move to “Their intellectual property is a lack of IP” or “Keds or banana peels crafted into slippers,” and take one guy. You will also be fine taking Severino and moving right to “Their intellectual property is a lack of IP,” or “Keds or banana peels crafted into slippers.” If you skip a 2nd starter in Panty Mouth and Shruggle, then draft two guys from “Their intellectual property is a lack of IP,” or “Keds or banana peels crafted into slippers.” So, you could have either something like Severino, Verlander and Godley or Archer, Sonny Gray and Godley. Either way, you then move along to Candice and Stunods/donuts and grab a guy, then a Dollar Store condom or St. Bernard. Finally, one guy from the St. Bernard. So, you’ll have something like Severino, Verlander, Godley, Faria, Cobb and Foltywirewitz. Don’t mind if I do! Or you could have something like Severino, McCullers, Wacha, Trevor Williams, Mikolas and Gohara. That’s straight gorge. As in engorged.
If your first pitcher is from the tiers: “The shruggle is real”
These tiers go from Archer to Bauer. This is likely the way I’m going in 12-team leagues and shallower. This would be ideal (and just as convoluted. Anyone that actually reads AND understands this post deserves a gold star and a head exam. “You, sir, are fit for the looney bin.”) My first pitcher will be from the Shruggle, then two starters from “Their intellectual property is a lack of IP,” or “Keds or banana peels crafted into slippers,” then one starter from “Candice” and “Stunods/donuts,” and one starter from Condoms or St. Bernard. Finally, a St. Bernard. So, you could have something like Greinke, Sonny Gray, Alex Wood, Snell, Mikolas and Josh Hader. You just won your league and games haven’t even started. You’re welcome. Could this post become more confusing? Short answer: no. Long answer: nooooooooooo. But let’s try…
Overall Thoughts
You can’t go wrong with a lot of different sets of pitchers. Shoot (not you, deranged white man), you probably could do fine with drafting only 3 starters and 3 great relievers and streaming. If you stick to the pitchers I like, then you’ll do well matching them up any way you see fit. For unstints, I could see a lot of people saying Wacha is being drafted close to Hader, so is it okay if he’s my St. Bernard? Yeah, of course. If you draft only pitchers that I like, then I have no quarrel with you.
TROUBLE AREAS
WHIP Issues – For every pitcher who is projected over a 1.23 WHIP, take one below. The quicker you do this, the better off you’ll be. For unstints, if you take Kevin Gausman, who I have projected for 1.25, you need to pair him with someone I have projected below a 1.23. Don’t pair Gausman with Pomeranz. Pair him with someone like Morton. Remember, the further you get into the rankings, the harder it becomes to find lower WHIPs. Side note: WHIP can be helped by closers and MRs… Or hurt by them.
What about the tier “Ultimate frisbee out the window,” or any starter listed in the top 100 starters who are in tiers not listed above. They are 7th starters or DL-bound or minor league-bound who you’re stashing. I wouldn’t count on any of them for anything. I like me some Jose De Leon or a bunch of those guys, but are you really starting any of them every time out in April and risking a huge blow up, which would lead to a crushing April that leaves you in your fantasy baseball basement and a chance to start trading for keepers in May? You take a flyer on someone like De Leon, hope he works out and if he doesn’t, you decide whether to drop him in redraft leagues. He’s not your 6th starter.
K ISSUES – For drafters who follow my lead, this shouldn’t be much of an issue. You’re shooting for around 150/starter.
Overall Pitching Issues – Just about everyone, including yours truly, drops at least one of their starters by May 1st. Obviously, you want the best team coming out the draft, but it’s a marathon not a sprint. Starters always come out of nowhere on waivers to become productive. Always. Even in deep leagues.
BONUS FEATURE
Because we both know everything above this point was the gibberish of a mad mind, here’s an easy to use shortcut. Just click the pitcher you draft, then you’ll get a short list of the next pitcher you’re supposed to draft. Frank Voila, snitches! Now, have at it:
Maybe the best line of the off season: ” If Ed Kemper stood up and read this at the next prison Meet N’ Greet…” Great image.
@Sweatpants Nation: Ha, thanks!
“Bruh, I miss Antje’s 4 page Rambo posts.” – No One, Ever
@Richard Trickle: I do, hope he’s okay
@Richard Trickle: Ante is out there changing people’s lives man. And so I ask, Mr. Dick Trick, my over the internet friend…whose lives have you changed lately?
1st yr dynasty league. I have the last and first pick. Pick two please:
Lindor, Machado, Rizzo, Bellinger. Lindor’s only 21 so huge in a dynasty but Much is only 25.
I take both of them or one of them and a 1B. Bellinger is younger but Rizzo safer. Pick 2 please
@I am the Walrus: Only 21?
Sorry 24
Is that a price or you saying his age?
Age. It’s a snake draft.
I’m sort of looking at age as a factor in a forever league.
Ages don’t really matter for hitters in the top 20, they’re all in their prime (more or less)
A snake? Watch your language!
12 team roto, 6×6 Roto (WHIP), 1,800 IP limit. Keeper auction.
Thor, deGrom, Nola, Quintana, McCullers, Weaver, Duffy, Aaron Sanchez, Jimmy Nelson, Reyes.
To much risk on the IP side? Think I need to draft some of the Shark/Lynn tier? Or just roll into the Montgomery/Williams tier?
@Jensen: My 2 cents worth and not looking at Grey’s rankings. I’m not convinced on Thor’s health, McCullers always seems to be on the DL during the season, Weaver probably won’t start 32 times, Sanchez, Nelson and Reyes might get 200 innings between them. I’d say you need a guy like Samardzija who most likely will throw 200 innings by himself. Yes, you have IP risk currently.
@Jensen: I don’t like some of these SPs as you know from my rankings
@Grey: You might not like Thor but I got him for Darvish straight up, so now that’s who I have. You think those 9 guys can throw 1400 innings? In my head that is sort of what I expect with average luck.
That is a solid trade for you… I think they can throw 1400 IP, god willing
God=Giancarlo
@Grey: Wieters finally had to surrender that nickname?
Which?
@Grey: God. The Savior of Baltimore.
Haha, of course!
14 team dynasty 5×5 OBP instead of average, use actual salaries and there is a hard cap for the league
Keepers 14
Madison Bumgarner, Khris Davis, Marcell Ozuna, Josh Bell, Jon Schoop, Alex Reyes, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Seager, Blake Snell, Alex Wood
Minors 5 Ronald Acuna, Lewis Brinson, Mike Soroka, Juan Soto, Forrest Whitley
Who should I keep 4 out of:
Justin Bour
Evan Gattis
Danny Duffy
Max Kepler
Ian Desmond
Jackie Bradley
Sorry for so many specifics, but I appreciate the advice, leaning Duffy, Gattis, Desmond, Bour, am I an idiot?
@Jared: Only your close friends and family should be allowed to confirm your idiocy haha
@Jared: That four sounds fine
How do you apply to nl only leagues?
Trying to keep up with the tier names is driving me insane lol
@Willy Mo: Hehe
@Grey: how much do you account for big bix sites adp when u draft? Like bauer is way down on the big box sites but top 100 for you. Would you draft a pitcher you have ranked after bauer on your ranking before him and try to get both guys or do you just draft next best on your cheat sheet and ignore the consensus adp?
I’d take into account a little, if I knew Bauer wasn’t going to be drafted for eight rounds, I’d sit on him for a round or two… If he’s going around 180 overall, no reason to draft him 80th overall. But in the end, I do want pitchers who I want…
@Grey: true just curious. i missed judge in one of my leagues last year by getting greedy with his late adp. Someone reached like 100 spots. I then threw up.
I owned Judge last year, that was the year to own him
@Grey: yeah for sure i mean his adp was outside the top 200 and he was a top 5 player or so.
Excited for my spot on the opening podcast next season when he repeats!
He repeats top 5 or top 50?
@Grey: well the bet was rizzo vs judge razzball player rater 2018
I lose I rep razzball gear at yankee games all of 2019 would verify with pics.
Win and Im on the podcast.
Ah, okay, I didn’t remember, but could verify!
Hey Grey! I’m in a keeper league and have Verlander for $12 and get to keep Keuchel for $6. Not a big believer in a repeat from Keuchel, but at that price I have to run with it. What would be the next group or arm to go for? Am I looking for a high-K guy, or more of a low WHIP/ERA control guy? Which tier do i need to be looking at? Thanks for all the great work!
@Burningbridges247: Wood’s tier
For H2H categories league, If i am keeping two top 15 SP, would you consider taking one high end closer and then taking a bunch of high upside SPs? I will have 4 good keeper hitters and I think it I can withstand low saves at the beginning of the year and stay competitive. With the amount of closer turnover, it seems to make more sense to load up on bats and upside SPs in the draft and scour WW for closers.
@Ghost Ride the WHIP: Talking in general terms, I guess that could work, specifically not sure who you mean
My first dynasty league draft. Are there drafting strategy changes you can recommend. In a dynasty draft do you think I go even later on pitchers than normal? I also assume I should weigh age heavily for both hitters and pitchers right?
@I am the Walrus: # of teams matters, keeping guys forever? Wouldn’t change how I draft starters
Finally My favorite post of the year.
Happy you’re happy, Grimey!
@Grey:
You always make me Happy Bae.
Ya know, your note to me still sits on my desk.
@Grey:
Ha that’s so sweet.
Maybe it’s time for another care package.
You still vaping at 3mg?
Yes! I got a new mod last week, first new one in like two years…A Ravage 230
@Grey:
That one looks nice. I’m using a Kroma-A these days. Small and simple.
I’ve seen that one at the store, I like it… Mines is heavy as shizz, serious carpal tunnel
Hey Grey,
getting ready for the start of the season and sitting on a smorgasbord of pitching but only 4 spots that I can fill. (keeper league)
opinion on who I should keep?
J. Lester
C. Morton
M. Tanaka
C. Kimbrel (only closer)
Z. Davies
J. Urena
R. Lopez
J.A. Happ
K. Graveman
I also picked up Hunter Green on a supplimental halfway thorugh the season last year but am thinking if I can to use him to sweeten a trade if I really need to open space
I was thinking of keeping:
C. Morton
M. Tanaka
C. Kimbrel (usually like to have 3 relievers for our points makeup)
and either Hunter Greene or Zach Davies.
I have been shopping Lester around for picks as I really think he only has a year or two left and I don’t want to wait until it is to late to get value out of him.
thoughts?
C. Morton
M. Tanaka
C. Kimbrel
Hunter Greene
@Grey:
ok so I was pretty much on the same level as you in who to keep….
not sure if I should be proud of myself that I actually understand the rankings or concerned and looking to check into rehad… :D
Tried to make you go to rehab, but you won’t go, go, go
@MIchael: also the hard part about my league is you never really know what will be available to pick up once we decide who we are going to keep on each team.
we each keep 10 players out of the 18+ we would have drafted the year before so I’m trying to prepare for the possibility of only having pitchers from the Banana slippers or St. Bernard level if I am lucky…(and I understood the levels correctly :/)
As lng as you’re drafting from tiers I like, it’s all good
Grey-tly appreciated, as always!
I just did a Fantrax ($25) classic 12-team roto draft last night, my first non-mock of the season. Also my first time in a no-trades league, so draft balance matters more than I’m used to, and my first time in a weekly-lineup league. SPs went off the board fast and furious, including many of the mid-tier guys I (and you [not Yu]) like. I stayed with my guns and pulled together a batch of hitters I like: Giancarlo (11), Freeman (14), Dozier (35), Hoskins (38), Pollock (59), Hosmer (83), Lamb (107), Albies (110), Story (155), Gattis (179), Zimmer (182), Hicks (230), and reserve upsiders Brantley, Brinson, Alonso, and Jose Martinez. My bullpen feels fine too with Edwin Diaz (86), Brad Hand (134), Blake Parker (203) and reserves Keone Kela (302), Nate Jones (323), and AJ Minter (326).
The real question is whether the staff I pulled together can cut it. 9 P slots (will give 3-4 to the above RPs), 1000 IP min, no max. Should I be building a streaming (2-start streaming?) plan?
(62) Carlos Martinez
(131) Zack Godley
(158) Johnny Cueto (I know, not your guy, but after pick 150 I think there’s upside)
(206) Taijuan Walker
(275) Miles Mikolas
and the following two, who I’m not considering locked-in starters for Week 1 due to concerns about starting the minor leagues or proving themselves post-TJ:
(227) Brent Honeywell
(347) Anthony DeSclafani
Anything I should focus on in order to manage this lineup effectively, and get the most out of my team?
You’re drafting guys I don’t like then asking me if I approve of them? I go over these guys in my rankings… Cueto, Walker and DeSclafani, bleh
@Grey: Not directly asking if you approve of them – I know where our ranks intersect and where they don’t. Walker and Desclafani were just functions of the barren SP landscape at the spots where I grabbed them – Walker was the 52nd SP taken, and #42 in your ranks, for example. Desclafani was my last-round flyer pick in a 30 round draft, chosen over fellow WW scrubs like Chacin, Nova, Hammel, Lugo.
Asking for any thoughts about how to manage a staff like this in a weekly lineup set league, where I can’t stream multiple good-daily-matchup-SPs “at-will” in order to add decent quality innings. I’m sure I’ll hit the 1000 IP minimum, but the no-maximum IP/GS thing is also novel. Am I incentivized to constantly rotate in 2 start streamers, or since it’s weekly and they’ll just replace other SPs I’ve rostered in the starting lineup, is that only the move if I have SP injuries and need live arms? Genuinely curious.
I’d be worried, Rudy likes Cueto more than me, thinks he can bounce back… DeSclafani is a wild card, maybe you get a healthy season… Taijuan’s always such a headache, but maybe he pans out… At this point, you need to wait out until at least the spring training to see where you stand…
@Grey: That’s a fair assessment, thanks. If they confirm the humidor for Chase Field and I get value boosts to both Godley and Walker, I’ll breathe a small sigh of relief. An early Honeywell appearance would be huge for me, too.
Yeah, I like Honeywell, but realistically who knows with him…. I like Godley a lot, and maybe humidor finally makes Taijuan what we’ve thought all these years
The “ignore pitching” strategy is cool and all in leagues where you can just stream to death, but what about H2H leagues with a cap on moves? Like, say, a 60 moves cap for the entire H2H season? SPs don’t get a bump in value there? You can’t really draft one/two decent starters and just stream to death like that. Plus, elite starting pitching, especially starters that throw deep into games, are a virtually almost extinct species. 20 SPs threw 200 innings last year, 15 had sub 3.5 eras, 20 had a whip under 1.22. (and 3.5 eras and 1.22 whips arent exactly quality)
Comparatively, 40 dudes hit 30+ bombs last year, and 118 players hit 20 out. 118!!! Useful Hitters grow on trees in the juiced ball era. Quality pitching does not. How do you not account for the juice ball effect in baseball that turned everyone and Yonder Alonsos mom into a 25 home run hitter? I dont get it.
If I had a move cap, I’d draft higher ranked pitchers… Not just streaming you’re losing, you’re losing ability to try out new starters for a week or two…
Always one of most entertaining posts. I am fairly certain FBI is already watching you.
Haha, thanks!
I play in a NL only $260 Auction Weekly H2H Points League
With that being said, should I trade my J. Lamb $5, C. Hernandez $3 and J. Bour $8 For N. Arenado $42?
My roster:
Goldy-$49
K. Marte $3
D. Peralta $3
J. Pederson $11 (I’ll likely drop and take $6 penalty as he was under contract)
G. Holland $7 (only if the greedy fucker and his agent sign on an NL team before draft)
Because I need so much in the draft I’m not sure I should pull the trigger.
I appreciate you.
You’re telling everyone you appreciate them! I’d hold
@Grey: Thanks, Grey! I wanted to make sure the master of disaster had a chance to weigh in. I still appreciate you.
No problem
This always feels like I’m doing one of those choose-your-own-adventure kids books (in a good way!). [clicks too many top tier pitchers] “Oh no, you’re 6th pitcher is . . . Bartolo Colon Jr. Jr. Sr.?!”
HA, Now choose the sorcerer whose mead you wish to poison
In a 12 team shallow roster OBP OPS (no AVG) H2H league, who do you like as your final keeper? Keep forver, +$3 annually.
$5 Gallo (this format seems tailor-made for him)
$5 Devers
$13 Justin Upton (his streakiness can be very frustrating in weekly matchups)
Thanks!
Tough call, who else you keeping?
@Grey: @Grey:
Honestly, not quite sure. I won last year and traded for a bunch of guys who are probably at or above market value ($51 Goldy, $58 Harper, $54 Machado, $58 Kershaw). I’m certain Machado would be cheaper at draft (OBP isn’t his best format), and forget Kershaw obviously.
It’s keep 5, so here are my current top candidates (including the above guys) below.
$51 Goldy (last year we were redraft format and he went for $46, this year and beyond we’re keeper + we don’t know how that will impact draft auction inflation).
$58 Harper
$5 Hoskins
$13 Upton
$5 Devers
$5 Gallo
$27 Dozier
$4 Severino
$6 Nola (keeping these two SP would mean that I can basically just draft $1-$3 SPs and stream each week until I find the next breakouts).
Yeah, tough choices all around… When you deciding this puppy?
@Grey: End of Feb.
Currently, leaning towards Rhys (love that OBP), Sev, Nola, and I guess two of Upton/Devers/Gallo.
I’d like to keep Harper, Goldy, but at those potentially at-or-above-market prices, I feel like I’d be drafting scared if I kept them. But would still need to decide between Upton/Devers/Gallo.
You can get Harper and Goldy back around same prices… Rhys, Sev, Nola, Upton, Devers, prolly then just draft some big bats in draft… Def don’t need any more top arms
@Grey: I like it. That would definitely give me the most auction $$$ to spend in the draft . . . slotting Rhys at 1B and Devers at 3B would give a lot of flexibility to add top bats for more than other teams can afford and/or ensure that I snag guys like Acuna for less than the $17+ we’d be willing to pay.
You’re gonna have to buy back Harper, Goldy or someone for a ton tho
@Grey: Yeah that’s the downside! Oh well, still a few weeks to stir about it!
Yup
Oh, and Acuna!
Grey, you got a nice pair….-ing tool!
*blushes* You mean it?!
Great read as always Grey.I just joined a 24 team( never played in one as big) H2H Points league with counting stats as follows:
HR
RBI’S
Runs
SB
OBP
QS
K’s
ERA
SV+H
WHIP
Many of the quality starting pitchers are ranked in the top 50 with most others in the top 200.
I understand with a league this deep,it’ll be harder to draft a good staff so should I maybe concentrate more on hitters and try to cobble together a decent staff or get a couple of starters with my first picks?
Thanks<RICK
With QS and deep, I’d want at least one solid, top ten SP, then begin to cobble
Hey Grey – where can i find a break down of all player tiers?
In starter ranks specifically
hey grey, thanks for everything so far pick me 14 keepers plz 7×6 obp tb qs l added!
Xander Bogaerts
Adrián Béltre
Matt Carpenter
Robinson Chirinos
Delino DeShields
Paul Goldschmidt
Bryce Harper
Nomar Mazara
Yoán Moncada
A.J. Pollock
Eddie Rosario
Corey Seager
Giancarlo Stanton
Carlos Carrasco
Mike Clevinger
Doug Fister
Zack Godley
Brad Hand
German Márquez
Luis Perdomo
Max Scherzer
Jameson Taillon
Blake Treinen
Alex Wood
Max Scherzer, Wood, Godley, Carrasco, Hand…. Paul Goldschmidt
Bryce Harper
Nomar Mazara
Yoán Moncada
A.J. Pollock
Eddie Rosario
Corey Seager
Giancarlo Stanton
Bogaerts
@Grey: thanks, I have emotional ties to Beltre and Carpenter but it’s for the best…
No problem
What do Jedd Gyorko, Dominic Smith and Gregory Polanco all have in common? They are all in the best shape of their lives, baby. Draft ’em early and often.
What kind of player is Polanco who suddenly gets fired up when the ship is sinking? Trying to get off the team too and about to have the best year of his career?
@Grey:
He’s a player to build around….if you’re building a sandcastle.
Haha, doesn’t sound great during high tide
@Grey: And it’s high tide in Pittsburgh right now, coincidentally
Haha
@Grey: what shape is that? I’m an upside down bowling pin
“JFOH and Grey show up in camp, and they’re in Laurel and Hardy shape.”
@Grey: Halloween 2018!
Me and you papa!
@Grey: we can go to one of your hollywood type parties and everyone will wonder where you found a fat guy in that town .
We can say you’re imported!
@Grey: imported like prosciutto
Aged similarly too
with a nice ribbon of fat running through it
That makes me think of bacon, though I haven’t eaten lunch yet
Wanted to discuss some interesting mid-late rounders in the top 500 post yesterday, but got sidetracked with the whole Bellinger thing. Here are a few players that I have my eye on this year:
Garrett Richards – Might as well start with the obvious. In terms of build, velocity, pitch usage, control, ability to miss bats, batted ball profile, etc., he bears a striking resemblance to C-Mart. The only problem is that his pitching elbow resembles Tanaka’s. Could be anything from a wasted pick to a cheap SP2. The injury risk is already baked into his NFBC ADP (183.1).
Luis Gohara – Has been compared to a young CC Sabathia. Led all left-handed SPs (min 20 IP – small sample, but it’s what we have to work with) in FBv (96.3). Showed an elite ability to miss bats too (13.4% SwStr%). Struggled holding runners on base and really struggled against RHH (.892 OPS against), but there’s big upside here.
Willie Calhoun – Has raked at each level throughout his minor league career. Combines plus power (32 combined HRs last season) with above average contact ability (sub 12% K% over the last two seasons). Projects as an everyday starter for the Rangers at the moment. Super cheap (270.2 ADP).
David Dahl – Has a post-hype feel to him. Supposedly healthy entering the spring, only has Parra and Desmond “blocking” him in the outfield. Age 24 season, Coors Field, five cat potential. Have a sneaking suspicion that the Rockies bring CarGo back on a one year deal, but Dahl is a low risk, high reward pick. Could be an April drop or a top 20 OF.
Eugenio Suarez – Was quietly the second best player on the Reds last season. Cut down on his Ks slightly and boosted his walk rate into elite territory (13.3%). Hit 26 bombs last year after hitting 21 the year before. Doesn’t chase bad pitches (25.4% O-Swing%). Great home park for power. Age 26/27 season.
Funny, Rudy and I were just going back and forth about Dahl. I have no idea what to expect from him for playing time. He could be anywhere from 150 ABs and nothing to 500 ABs and be huge value…. Actually considering moving him up my rankings….
I like the rest of these guys except Garrett Richards who I guess is fine for the price.
Eugenio is really interesting, I assumed similar from last year, but at his price he could be a steal. What do you think of Cozart? (I know now a different team)
@Grey: Last year was a wasted one for Dahl, obviously. I don’t see Parra as much of an obstacle, and the Rockies can move Desmond to 1B if they want to. Think they still add someone like CarGo or Reynolds for one of those spots, but there’s still room for Dahl. If he’s healthy and raking in the spring, I think he’ll find playing time.
Richards is C-Mart if he stays healthy. Great park and defense. Elite velo, misses bats. Cheap. Your mind is made up on him, as is mine. We’ll call him my Tim Anderson.
I don’t see Suarez making a huge jump, but it’s not hard to see a .265/30/90 type of season. He practically did that last year. Basically a cheaper Seager/Lamb type.
Not crazy about Cozart. His new home park is very pitcher friendly. I’d put his over/under at 15 homers. Doesn’t run much either. Has had durability issues. His SS/3B eligibility will be useful for deeper leagues though.
What other players are you and Rudy butting heads on?
Parra is not much of an obstacle, but Mark Reynolds didn’t seem like one last year, and the Rockies institutionally seem to love to stay in a vet rut…
True and true on those other guys…
Hmm…I think we disagreed on Acuna April promotion, Tim Beckham and Jose Peraza being worth a damn, and Michael Brantley, I’m sure you know who of us would draft him…
@Grey: Hmm… I’d guess that Acuna is still in the minors at the end of April. If the Braves were serious about competing this year, they’d sign a 3B and/or another SP. I’ll think they’ll slow play things a bit. We’ll see though.
I’d be more inclined to take a chance on Peraza than Beckham. Could be a cheap 30 steal guy. I’m guessing you’re the one pushing for Beckham. You tend to like those “pedigree” players. I see him being ok but nothing special.
I’m out on Brantley, unless you have a deep bench to stash him on. You’ll need it. Can’t stay healthy, and if he does, what is he at this point? Parra? ODB? Best case is probably Eaton. Don’t think the juice is worth the squeeze.
I think that Ketel Marte is interesting in deep leagues. From a plate discipline and power/speed standpoint, reminds me a bit of Jose Ramirez from a couple of years ago.
Hmm, was thinking Acuna might be up to start year or at latest like Bryant from his rookie year when he was up two weeks in… I might have to tamp down my Acuna love, March will tell me more on that.
I love Peraza this year, still crazy young, no reason not to play him, and he still has those contact skills. Beckham feels to me like last year was his coming out party and will realize it more this year, but I do wish he had more speed.
Ketel Marte is one forgotten man, but I wonder if it’s not bc people are assuming by Opening Day he won’t have a starting job. You buying into this Evan Gattis nonsense at all?
@Grey: Yeah, I’ll probably own at least one share of Peraza this year. Going around pick 200 right now and speed is down. Perfect opportunity to get a cheap 30-35 steals out of your MI.
Beckham still has a crazy high K-rate. He hasn’t really addressed that issue. I think he goes .250-.260 w/ 18-20 homers and 5-7 steals. In 12 teamers, I think he’ll be on and off waivers all year. Useful when hot.
Is anyone all that high on Gattis outside of one or two writers? 20-25 homers w/ a .250-.260 avg is solid for a catcher. Someone like Ramos could do the exact same thing though. Probably a borderline top 10 catcher but not a player to reach for.
Luke Weaver is getting a lot of buzz. Current ADP is 110, right between Castillo and Berrios. You in or out?
Yeah, samesies on Gattis, but 20-25 HRs feels optimistic…Astros are win now and have a lot of moving parts… I’m in on Weaver, potential 10-ish K/9, solid ratios, doesn’t walk many guys…In my rankings I compared him favorably to Castillo
@Grey: You’d take Weaver in the 10th round of a 12 teamer? I guess that makes sense. That’s usually where you like to address pitching. I think I’m out on him this year though. A little rich for my blood.
I know how you like to arrange your rankings, which is why I asked about Weaver. Just looking at your top 500+, I’m pretty confident that you wouldn’t take Daniel Murphy with the 50th overall pick or Braun at #87. You and your unique “get em out of the way” rankings, haha. Have to go back and read some of the positional blurbs.
Wow, you have Baez and Anderson high. I guess it makes sense that those guys are back to back. They never saw a pitch they didn’t like.
Do you really like Gausman that much, or is he in an avoid tier? Throws hard, but doesn’t have a wipeout pitch. Mediocre control, horrible team, horrible park, horrible division. I wouldn’t touch him with your team. I’m out on Schoop, Ray, and Buxton at their current prices too.
I’m buying Mancini too. Love his ability to square the ball up. Should be a .280/25+ guy.
Yeah, 120 overall? I’d take Weaver there, but he’s in a tier of a lot of SPs I like so I may not get Weaver, I’d druthers up Castillo… Yeah, I said that in the top 100…I won’t own Murphy or Braun, I need an SP at Murphy’s spot and prolly CI around Braun… Braun I have more of a chance of owning tho…
I love Baez and Anderson, I’m surprised it’s just me. We’re all playing for power and speed, right?
Nah, I like Gausman a lot. You see his 2nd half?
Mancini is a guy I love that feels like a Magoo special, will prolly own Mancini everywhere…
@Grey: You mean Gausman’s big 2nd half that improved his ERA to 4.68 and his WHIP to 1.49? He’s won 34 games in 5 years (4 as a starter), and this is probably the worst team he’s ever played on. Has given up 57 homers over the last two years. Walk rate increased significantly. Don’t see much appealing here.
In regards to Baez and Anderson, they were both top 10 in highest Swing % and top 5 in highest O-Swing %. I see a lot of Odor in them, aka high bust potential. Pitchers won’t have trouble getting them to expand the zone, and their low on-base skills will keep them buried towards the bottom of their respective lineups, killing their counting stats.
We agree on Mancini though! It’s not all doom and gloom, haha. I’m surprised how high you are on Jose Ramirez. I’m with you there as well. Myers, Puig (though I’m a bit concerned about his counting stats), Cain, Nola, Cespedes, Castillo – we’re close on all of them. Consensus!
You’re not telling the whole story, Magoo! Gausman had a solid 2nd half. Yeah, coupled with his 1st half it wasn’t great overall, but 24th best fastball, 3rd best splitter and 23rd best xFIP in the 2nd half… C’mon, he had a decent 2nd half.
Yeah, bust potential is huge with Baez and Anderson, but that speed and power is alluring… I’m high on them, and I know they won’t go for another few rounds, so I can sit on Anderson for a few rounds and still get him
@Big Magoo: Had the Gausman argument already multiple times. Glad to see someone else with some common sense Magoo.
@Big Magoo: enjoyed this convo
6×6 roto with QS and OPS. 12-team dynasty league. Was offered $58 Goldschmidt for my $25 Springer OR $28 Correa. U like either of these? Love Goldy but am scared of that keeper cost…
Rest of my keepers are:
Freeman
Arenado
Robbie Ray
Khrush
Knebel
Castillo
Devers
J Bell
@Random Collmenter:
He just offered Goldy plus $12 auction dollars for Springer ($25) plus Knebel ($6).
U like? I think I’m gonna take it even tho I have Freeman already…
Thanks Grey!
That’s not bad with $12 thrown in and Springer…Do you have corner spots?
@Grey:
No corner spots but two Utility, so I could stick Freeman in one of those.
Also, if I dealt Knebel then I could keep someone else like Taillon or Giolito…
Seems decent
That’s so expensive for Goldy
Hey Grey, we keep two pitchers and I’ve got Kluber and Severino. We start two at each IF position (with two DH, any hitter), 5 OF, 6 SP and 3 RP. From which tier would you think I should probably grab my next SP?
Wood or lower, how many teams?
@Grey: 10 teams, but deep rosters.
In a 10 team 6×6 league with 15 keepers per team. Right now, my pitching keepers will be Kluber, Thor, Greinke, Carlos Martinez, and Godley. I also have #1 draft pick and with 150 keepers off the board I’m almost certainly taking Ohtani. Given that, do you think I should try to move Greinke for a top closer or just keep a strong hold on starting pitching? Thanks in advance!
Nah, figure out a trade after you see what team you after the draft
Hey, Grey: Here’s one for ya. I’m in a keeper league where I’m starting out with Kershaw, Strasburg, and Quintana already. Nice problem, eh? Suggestions as to employing your pitcher pairings to fill out my staff?
You can jump to Gausman or Faria tier
@Grey: Thanks. I will try that. Curious as to why Yu Darvish is absent from First Tier.
Would you trade a $19 Darvish for a $10 Weaver in a league where you are trying to save money for Auction?
Yup
@Grey: Still?
@The Great Knoche: I have Yu listed for $20 and Weaver for $11
Grey:
Two trade offers pending in 20 team 5×5 keeper:
Trade offer #1: my Bellinger, C. Taylor, Gausman, and Zobrist for his J. Ramirez, Zimmerman, Bauer, and Franco
Trade offer #2: my Giolito for his Bradley Jr., Starlin, and Carson Smith.
Thinking about doing both these. Have a couple of bench spots open and is a daily league. Giolito trade would take me from 9 starters to 8 (all of which you like…).
Thanks!
They both sound decent for you
Darvish to the Cubs on a six year deal. MLB Network reports it’s for $126 mil and Ken Rosenthal claims it’s for $150. Interesting that they made an earlier offer to Cobb and then went hard after Yu. Doesn’t make Arrieta look good.
@Big Magoo: Looks like both reports are kind of right. It’s apparently for $126 but could reach $150 with incentives.
@Big Magoo: Finally some action. If he fixes the pitch tipping from WS this doesn’t seem a horrible deal for Cubs. Considering both Arrieta and Yu were originally looking for 6 and $200Million
@The Great Knoche: It’s a fair deal, especially considering the fact that teams usually have to pay the full sticker price for premium free agents. He’ll probably be very good for the first half of the deal, then taper off in the second half (a lot like the Lester deal).
Now just need Hosmer, Moose and Arrieta to sign (am I forgetting anyone?)
@Grey: JD
Dur, that’s right…Big one…
@Grey: Hosmer should be fine. Arrieta might have to take a slightly shorter deal than he originally wanted, but his AAV should be solid. Moose could be screwed though. Aren’t many teams looking for a third baseman right now.
Yanks, Royals, Braves, White Sox, um…I guess Yanks, am I missing someone?
@Grey: Maybe the Cards. That’s about it.
But the Yanks seems intent on staying under the luxury tax threshold, the Braves seem to be near their spending limit for this year (especially after taking on the extra ’18 salaries in the Kemp deal), the Royals are rebuilding and seem to be prioritizing only Hosmer, and the White Sox have no need to spend at the moment.
I see Moose having to “settle” for a Bruce type of deal. Poor guy. He’ll only be very rich instead of filthy rich.
Yeah, makes sense… Bruce type deal where tho?
@Grey: Tough to say. I think the Yanks would’ve just resigned Frazier for less years and money if they wanted to go the FA route. The Royals could sign him as a consolation prize if they’re unable to retain Hosmer. The Cards are probably just waiting for Holland’s price to come down. They might not see Moose as much of an upgrade over Gyorko anyway (or Carpenter if they slide him back over there).
So… I’ll say he goes back to the Royals on a Bruce-type deal, then tries to save face by saying he gave them a hometown discount.
Makes sense
About time he landed somwehere
@Grey: My knee jerk after Yu signed was going straight to park factors in the NL central. Milwaukee, Chicago and Cincy for a pitcher that leans flyball. Just a thought.
BTW, the league average HR/9 for pitchers went from 0.86 in 2014 to 1.02 in 2015 to 1.17 in 2016 to 1.27 in 2017. If that’s not juiced then I don’t know what is.
How about how there’s like 50 pitchers (small exaggeration) with a 9+ K/9?
@Grey: Stop arguing the juiced ball theory!
I’m not! (Am I?)
@Grey: I don’t know. It’s Sunday
Oh, crap, already?
Grey like this?
I give EDiaz and JGray and get Gallo and Peraza
I give Sale and get Thor and Polanco
Leaning yes and no respectively…
15 team keep 11 obp Slg k/9 Qs
@Nightpandas: or I give Diaz Osuna Gray for I Happ Fulmer and Gallo
Nah, other one
A lot
@Grey: you like the Gallo Peraza return ?
I do
Grey, NL only .Auction. 260 dollar cap. 5×5 unlimited keepers.
I am keeping pitchers Ray, Weaver, Godley, Gohora,Knebel and Buehler. What pitchers or pitching tier should I be trying to get,to make sure my pitching does well?
Gausman/Faria
@Grey: I forgot to mention it is a 8 team league. Does that change tier?
Grey
Thanks for all your work. SP question. I play in a few leagues where we have around 1350-1400 IP limit. with 7-8 P slots. I’ve never really done the pure streaming route but am probably going to try it this year. I’m thinking of drafting 4 SP & 4 or 5 RP & than steaming to hit my IP limit. I figured I’d grab an extra hitter at the draft instead of another SP.
Your thoughts. Thanks
I go over in the post you’re commenting on to draft 6 SPs
Hot off my Apple news ( a few hours ago): Madison Bum isin the best shape of his life. Add him to the Soler list
After Bumgarner spoke to reporters, he hopped on his BMX bike…
Keeper challenger: I can keep up to 5 players (Keeper Cap, aggregate = $60) in a 12-team standard 5×5 league. Who would you keep?
Bryce Harper $55
Billy Hamilton $23
Carlos Carrasco $22
Justin Upton $21
Craig Kimbrel $20
Daniel Murphy $20
Jose Ramirez $15
Elvis Andrus $13
Whit Merrifield $9
Eddie Rosario $9
Arodys Vizcaino $9
Ramirez $15 + who else?
Ramirez, Carrasco, Upton, Hamilton, Merrifield — tough calls tho
@Grey: Alas, there’s a $60 aggregate cap on my keepers. So, I can’t keep all those guys.
The last pitcher in your choose your own adventure pitcher draft does not work is there some magically words of wisdom Im supposed to see?
What do you mean?
Keepers league based on prior year draft position and can keep the player in the same round.
Pick 13 in 14 team league 6×6
Potential keepers
Freeman (1)
Archer (5)
Jansen (6)
Quintana (8)
Robbie Ray (14)
Feel really good about Ray but unsure on a second. Leaning towards Quintana as the second keepers
Thoughts?