Fantasy Baseball Advice

But the White Sox were able to go back-to-back-to-back-to-back. That’s quadrupling your pleasure. Or double-double-headed. Which makes you say whoopee for fantasy baseball, right? Seriously, you say whoopee. Yeah, you do. You and Bob Eubanks. But if someone asks you the most romantic place you’ve ever made whoopee, don’t say, “Up the butt.” Now there was something in the middle of this landmark real baseball feat that you should take notice of — Paul Konerko. Nooo! Don’t talk about Konerko again. Sorry, but he has three home runs and a plus-.300 average in August. Buh-buh-buh… Ugh! Most importantly for our purposes, Guillen can’t quit Konerko. That’s right, Konerko’s been getting starts. If you need cheap lumber, cut down your neighbor’s tree, but if you want a cheap power source, try out Konerko. He might be the double-headed pleasure seeker you need. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Troy Percival/Grant Balfour/Dan Wheeler - Percival left the ninth with a knee sprain. Balfour tried to say, “Hey, dudes, I got this one.” Only he didn’t leave to the slow clap as much as the hanging-head-of-shame. I grabbed Wheeler where I had room.

Brad Ziegler - Orel Hershiser laughs maniacally, removing the pin from his Zielger doll.

Aramis Ramirez - HR yesterday, but injured his hip later in the game. He’s day-to-day, which shouldn’t be confused with Soul II Soul.

Jerry Hairston Jr. - Supposed to return for Friday’s game. He sure has got a lot of press lately. Guys, if I may call you that even though there might be chicks here, Hairston’s not really a .343 hitter. Cust kayin’.

Rocco Baldelli - Guess why I’m writing his name. Go ahead. I’ll wait. *scratches nose, itches head, dusts off my framed picture of Michael J. Fox* Baldelli’s injured! Dur.

Jason Kendall - From The Files of the Unfair:  Because of a game started clause, Kendall will earn 4.25 million next year. WTF?!

Chris Iannetta - Yorvit Torrealba has a small tear in his knee. If there was any concern about Iannetta’s playing time, this helps.

Ryan Franklin - Got the save yesterday, but that was just so they didn’t overuse Perez. Never fear, Razzballers.

Brad Penny - Returns to the DL. Nomar, “See, this healthy thing ain’t so easy… Ow! I juth bit my lip when I said eathy. Thee!”

Todd Wellemeyer - 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER. Dave Duncan says, “I’ll see your Mazzone and I’ll do it without the rocking back and forth.”

Chris Dickerson - The first cheap steal schmohawk in yesterday’s post went 3-for-5 with two doubles and a triple. Sometimes recently called-up players excel while pitchers try and figure them out. Dickerson might be one of those, so he may have even more value now than later. There will be a Buy/Sell later today as there is every Friday afternoon, and I may just beat my Dick…er, um, what was I saying–erson later today. Tasteful!

With two home runs yesterday, Ryan Braun is up to 20 HRs. Not sure I mentioned this before, but I traded for The Hebrew Hammer a couple of weeks ago. (If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em!) I traded Carl Crawford for Braun. Rudy called me all kinds of names about this one. Topped with, “I’d say you’ve sunk to a new low but trading Verlander to (so-and-so) for Street (two years ago) when (so-and-so) was 3 starts away from being maxed out was the lowest…” Honestly, I enjoy pissing off my friends at fantasy baseball, but I wasn’t sure why Rudy was mad about this one. I mean, Crawford for Braun is fair, no? Well, turns out the team I traded Crawford to didn’t need steals. Know what? I don’t care. The team’s owner has been playing with us for a long time. He’s proven himself a worthy adversary. If he wants to trade for more steals while sporting Reyes, Pierre and Bourn, it’s his prerogative. (I don’t need permission to make my fantasy baseball decisions….It’s my prerogative…) So does this mean I suddenly endorse Braun? I placed him 22 overall; I never didn’t endorse him (sorry, double negatives hurt my brain, too). I just thought Braun was going too high. Well, on that team, I needed power because Hafner was a have-not, so I went out and got Braun. Am I suddenly down on Crawford? I am starting to think the power may never come and I’m not a huge fan of speed only guys, so there’s that. The lesson that should be taken away? Every player has a place on some team. Except Ryan Zimmerman. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Chase Headley - Watched him bat three times yesterday. Saw nothing that exciting. Seems like he likes to take a pitch even if it means striking out. Reminded me of Jeremy Hermida in this respect. This was one game; this is by no means a ‘pert evaluation.

Manny Parra - 7 shutout innings, 5/4 K/BB. Confidence level looks like it’s climbing. (I don’t know what that means. I heard Bill Schroeder say it and Bill Schroeder is a knowledgeable color man.) Know what helps a confidence level? Pitching against the Blue Jays.

Jose Reyes -Left with what Jose Mota (not Molina) deemed a minor injury. Word from a different (more reliable) source is he might have strained a hamstring. Ugh… *sticking head in oven*

Brad Penny - Hit the DL yesterday. Here’s what Alyssa Milano’s MLB blog update said today, “I told him to stop eating all of those fried foods and late nite meals at Mel’s Diner. When I was preparing for the roll (sic) of Charlotte Wells in Embrace of the Vampire, I ate only soba noodles for 2 months straight! Do u think I wanted to eat so much soba noodles? Well, actually…. Yeah! I did! (Wouldn’t u?) But even if I thought soba noodles tasted gross, I’d still ate (sic) them if I thought they’d help me stay in shape. BTW, I wasn’t the one who gave you herpes! L8 and <3″

Chad Billingsley - I want to draft Billingsley right now for 2009, 2010 and 2011 with an option for 2012. In the same blog entry, Alyssa Milano said this about Billingsley, “Blame Penny for the herpes. Sorry! L8 and <3 * 2″

Johnny Cueto - Not sure why his Ks are so down. Might have something to do with scouting reports, but I think it’s more to do with him falling behind and going for contact. There’s also a strong chance that Dusty Baker is somehow responsible. Dusty, “Cueto, I will throw you in back-to-back games for the ‘mainder of the season if you try to strike people out. I’m not joking. Call up Mark Prior, he will tell you.”

Brandon Webb - Going through what the people in the biz call, “a dead arm period.” If this period is anything like my girlfriend’s, it’s best to act like he’s fine and NOT bloated.

Justin Duchscherer - Of course, Dook-sheer pitched well. Apparently, that’s what Dook-Sheer do. Needed only 94 pitches to get through 8 innings.

Jeff Clement - The Mariners called him up, so he got in the game, right? Nope. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Seattle Mariners!

Brandon Morrow - Making the best of the opportunity, converted a save with a perfect ninth. Putz hadn’t pitched a perfect inning in June.

Ian Snell - Snell got O-Cab to ground out to open the game. The rest didn’t look so good.

Carlos Quentin - Batting .170 in June. Where’s April/May Carlos? We want him back.

Livan Hernandez - Movie trailer guy, “In a world where Livan Hernandez looks like a good replacement for Johan Santana… He’ll baffle you with his eephus! He’ll take his time with each pitch! He’ll avoid the foul line when walking off the field! George Lopez is Livan Hernandez!”

Brandon Lyon - Kazaam’d up the joint for 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning.

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Los Angeles Dodgers preview.)

By the end of last year, the big story with the Dodgers veteran players versus the young talent that the Dodgers were stocked with. This culminated in the completely absurd story that Matt Kemp wasn’t immature because he moved a trash can in front of his locker. In the end though, the kids won. At least four of the Dodgers starters on opening day this year will have less than two years of big league service time, and it looked like it was going to be five until Andy LaRoche was injured in Spring Training. Juan Pierre likely starting over Andre Ethier is still being used as an example of the Dodgers veteran fetish, but is there any team in the world that would bench a guy when they still owe him 36 million dollars? I wasn’t sure if the Dodgers were really committed to their youth movement at the end of last season, but after an offseason where no valuable young players were traded away, I believe that the Dodgers front office is on the right track.

Now, the Dodgers problem isn’t finding play time for their young players, it’s about knowing how the team will perform. Close to every starter for the Dodgers carries some major baggage with him, all of which has season ruining potential. Rafael Furcal was absolutely terrible last year after never really recovering from colliding with Jason Repko in Spring Training. Can he be a top level shortstop again? Jeff Kent is being expected to be a middle of the order run producer yet again this year, but only 10 players have ever had an OPS over .800 in 500 plate appearances at age 40. James Loney is almost a lock hit over .300 this year, but does he have enough power for a first baseman? You can point to his home run every 23.47 at bats in his big league career and say yes, but you could also look at his home run every 66.55 at bats in the much more hitter friendly AAA Las Vegas and say no.

Matt Kemp is seen as the Dodgers biggest hitting prospect, but his batting average last year was a fluke, a .411 batting average on balls in play is completely unsustainable, and his power is almost entirely hypothetical. Outside of Vero Beach, the most home
run friendly park in all of baseball, Kemp has never hit more than 17 home runs in a full season. Without much plate patience, Kemp can hit .280 and be a below average hitter. You can still probably pencil him in for close to a 20-20 season, but he hasn’t shown you can count on him to carry team.

The pitching staff faces similar questions. Brad Penny had a miracle season last year that saw his strikeout and walk rates plummet from his career norms, but was still one of the most valuable pitchers in the NL because he allowed only nine home runs last year. Since it’s very difficult for even extreme ground ball pitchers to keep the ball in the park like that, Penny’s numbers will probably take a huge step down last year and ruin more than one fantasy team. Derek Lowe has been very consistent in his three seasons with the Dodgers, but he didn’t throw 200 innings for his first time as a starter and could be the sign that he’s starting to age. Can Esteban Loaiza bounce back from injury and pitch effectively without Oakland’s spacious outfield? Will Jason Schmidt and Hong-Chih Kuo be able to ever throw a pitch while healthy? Much like the offense, almost every member of the Dodgers pitching staff has a huge question mark around him.

The Dodgers major acquisitions this offseason continue the trend. Andruw Jones has almost wrapped up his spot in the Hall Of Fame at age 31, but last year he was less valuable offensively than Juan Pierre last year and reported to camp looking like he misinterpreted his doctor’s instructions to drink nothing but milkshakes. Hiroki Kuroda received the highest annual salary out of any pitcher in this year’s free agent class, but he lacks the numbers in Japan that Daisuke Matsuzaka, or even Kei Igawa had. There’s a good chance that he won’t be all that effective here in the states. These questions keep adding up and a little bad luck can easily break the team.

Despite all of the belief that proven veterans provide stability the only consistent players the have this year all fall under the less than two years of service time umbrella. Dodgers this year will be part of the Dodgers young core. Russell Martin has already established himself as one of the top four catchers in baseball and shows no sign of stopping. Chad Billingsley solved the control problems that plagued his rookie season and could very well be the Dodgers best starter this year. If Andre Ethier can get playing time, he can provide average numbers for a corner outfielder with strong defense. Jonathan Broxton is arguably the most dominant setup man in baseball and would probably be the closer on 25 other teams. The Dodgers need to ride players like these to get through some of the issues that are sure to crop up this year.

The Dodgers have so many players with upside that it’s almost impossible for them to all fail at once. If a few of them succeed, the team will put up a win total in the high 80s and have a good shot at the NL West pennant. However, it wouldn’t shock me at all if the team finished under .500 or won a 100 games, it all depends on how the ball bounces.

Andrew Grant writes about the Dodgers at truebluela.com. He’s a stat dork and is very bad at promoting himself in a two sentence blurb.

You’re so lucky there’s an extra day in February or this post would have had to wait until March. We’ve already ran through the rest of the top outfielders for 2008. Today we look at the rest of the top pitchers. These are the pitchers that I usually draft. I love Peavy and Santana this year, but I won’t have them, unless they fall to me. By fall, I mean late second round. They’ll be lots of value from them, but pitching is too unpredictable and way too easy to patch together decent enough stats. If you draft Santana with your first round pick, who will be your second pick Carlos Lee? Mark Teixeira? Eh, these names don’t excite me enough in the 2nd round to forgo a hitter in the first. I’d prefer to take a Verlander/Haren-type a little later on.  Solid number one starter, but not a first rounder. Anyway, if you want to look at the 2008 Player Rater that was put together by our very own, Rudy Gamble; click here. If you’d like to look at the top twenty projections for every other position; click here. Now, without further ado, your top starting pitching for 2008, rankings 21-40.

21. Javier Vazquez – Vazquez had the best ’07 season you didn’t know about. (If you did know, then jump ahead, I wouldn’t want to bore you.) 3.74/1.14 with over 200 Ks in ‘07. He finally returned to his former Montreal glory. And, yes, that is the only time Montreal and glory have ever been used in a sentence. Projections: 17-7/3.50/1.15/200

22. Scott Kazmir – Purposely left Kazmir off my top twenty, cause I don’t want any starter sporting a high WHIP. Now there’s word that he has arm problems. That article is a press release filled with optimism. Aside, aren’t all injury articles press releases? Aren’t you sick of this? Reporter, “How does the arm feel?” Athlete, “It’s a little sore, but I’m going to be fine. The doctor said that I should be back on the field in seven to ten days.” Is there anyone left that speaks the truth? Stop with the press-release tone! But I digress. Maybe Kazmir’s injury is nothing, but here’s something, why would you risk it? Pitchers with arm problems in spring training are a caution flag. Do yourself a favor, don’t draft a pitcher with a spring training arm injury. Projections: 14-8/3.75/1.30/210

23. Daisuke Matsuzaka – His division is ridunkiculous with offense. The last pitcher I drafted from the AL East in any league, I believe, was Roy Halladay in ’06 and that turned out vaguely crappy. If you can get excited about Dice-K, I’m assuming you’re a Son of Sam Horn messageboard poster. His best quality (which, all snark aside, is actually a really good quality) is his durability. Projections: 17-7/4.00/1.25/200

24. A.J. Burnett – I know; I keep preaching safety first. Avoid injury problems. Yes. And that’s true. But this whole next tier of pitchers has question marks. A.J. is the most predictable when he’s healthy and even his injuries are predictable. There’s safety in that. Projections: 14-8/3.85/1.20/170

25. Brett Myers – I’m not too concerned about the inexplicable bullpen move last year. Can’t be great for his arm to go from 200 innings to 100 back to 200, but Myers seems like too much of a total doucebag to let it bother him too much. Maybe he slows down in August, but by then you’re trucking towards first place and there’s some spectacular call-up that can replace him for a start or two or three. Myers has my full endorsement. Projections: 16-7/3.75/1.28/175

26. Pedro Martinez – It’s with great regret that Pedro places no higher than 26th. He was absolutely incredible when I was in my twenties and now, well, we’re both getting old. I miss the old Pedro like I miss the old me, or the newer me. Alas… Projections:12-5/3.30/1.15/160 in 140 innings/24 starts.

25. Francisco Liriano – Heffin’ hey, he’s back! At least according to the stock press release-type articles being written. I’m not drafting Liriano in any league. It’s too fast, too soon. If you’re feeling lucky go to Vegas, if you want to play fantasy baseball, skip Liriano. Projections: 10-3/3.15/1.05/150 in 120 innings/20 starts.

26. Yovani Gallardo – I’ve detailed how you should avoid 2nd year players if at all possible (hitters or pitchers). YoGa has a good offensive team behind him or I would have clumped him down with Lincecum. (Instead, Lincecum will be clumped with Sheets. Which we’ll get to, sorry, I was being premature.)  Projections: 14-8/3.50/1.20/180

27. Ian Snell – I enjoyed a good season from Ian Snell last year, but, no matter how it played out, he always got a little roughed up. Whether it was Paulino dropping a pop-up or if he gave up a home run, Snell got rattled. He’s another year older and I think he can get better in ’08. I’d draft him with confidence. Projections: 12-9/3.60/1.20/200

28. Chien-ming Wang – Wang’s even a little too safe/unexciting for me. It’s hard to find fault with drafting him. He proved last year he doesn’t need to strikeout hitters to be effective. I do kinda worry when someone can’t strikeout someone out, but wins are wins and his ratios aren’t bad. Projections: 18-8/3.75/1.25/100

29. Tim Hudson – Boring, right? Yeah, he is a boring pick. Boring wins titles! Besides, I wouldn’t draft the next three pitchers on any team. Projections: 15-8/3.70/1.25/135

30. Matt Cain – Yes, he’s the opposite of boring, but his team’s offensive standout is Aaron Rowand.  His stuff is filthy; I’ll give you that. His division’s All-Stars probably would lose at least one game to the Taiwanese Little League team. His ballpark is ideal for a pitcher. Yet, he has too many games where he gives up six runs in five innings. He’s young still and he walks too many people. Maybe next year… Projections: 11-9/3.90/1.30/190

31. Tim Lincecum – Tim over at Roto Authority has a man crush on Lincecum like I have on Michael J. Fox. I think you’re asking for trouble if you draft Lincecum. As is my policy, second year players provide too much risk.  Taking a second year player on the worst offensive team is additional risk. Will he try to do too much? Will hitters catch up to him? Let it play out on someone else’s team. Projections: 10-7/ 3.75/1.25/170

32. Ben Sheets – Ugh, I wanted to just leave him off the list to prove a point, but he’s got great stuff. Unfortunately, you can’t draft him. He’ll make you miserable. If anything, let someone else draft him, then, after the second injury, trade Nick Punto for him and hope for a good September. Projections: 60-Day DL

33./34. Derek Lowe/Brad Penny  – See Hudson, Tim. (I could see one of you schmohawks commenting below that Lowe/Penny doesn’t get enough Ks to win titles or something like that. Penny/Lowe’s your third starter. Try and draft safety with your third starter and you’ll be in the hunt for a title in September. Draft Lincecum with your third starter and you’ll be in fifth place wondering where you went wrong.) (Penny note: I’m aware of his splits, but simply trade or apply caution in the second half.) Projections for both: 15-7/3.90/1.30/140

35. Ted Lilly – I almost tossed Lilly into my Penny/Lowe daily double, but he doesn’t have the advantageous pitcher’s park. Not to mention, there’s no weather in LA, when Wrigley’s blowing out, you want no part of any pitcher. That’s a headache I try to avoid. Projections: 16-8/4.20/1.20/160

36. Chad Billingsley – While your leaguemates are drafting Lincecum and Cain, I give you my approval to draft Chad late. He’s young and he’s a bit wild. Two things I usually avoid, but his team will be a lot better than the ‘Aints. That’s a confidence builder. With Grady Little, one of the worst managers of all-time (him and Jim Tracy were vying for top spot) gone, there’s reason to think Torre’s inheriting a future Cy Young. I’m thinking it, at least. 16-7/3.20/1.30/190 in a 180 innings/27 starts

37. Kelvim Escobar – I see Kelvim turning up on a lot of draft rankings for 2008. Yeah, see, the thing is, he’s missing all of April. That’ll turn into the All-Star Break, then he’ll return in August for the stretch run. Pretend like you have an idea of the haps and don’t draft him. Projections: Nothing yet, but maybe I’ll remind you in August to pick him up. If you’re good…

38. Adam Wainwright – Perfect example of why you avoid 2nd year players. His 1st half  was horrendous. Unusable. His 2nd half was great. I know he’s not as exciting as Cain or Lincecum but here’s someone who can actually help your team. Projections: 12-7/3.20/1.30/160

39/40. Phillip Hughes/Homer Bailey – Just give them a year. That’s all I’m asking. They might be good, but you don’t want any part of the other side of the coin and you have to draft them too early. Wait, ‘til next year and everyone’s excitement for these two is gone, then pounce. I repeat:  They might be good. The problem is they might be bad. If you want risk, have casual sex with a prostitute. Projections: 12-7/4.00/1.30/140

Your Bonus, you’re welcome:

41. Dontrelle Willis – Usually when pitchers go from the NL to the AL, their value takes a hit (literally!), but Dontrelle’s got some things going for him. His delivery is convoluted, he’ll have lots more run support and he won’t have to worry about hitting anymore. That last one seems like a bad joke, but he really did take his hitting seriously, a little too seriously, to the point I’d wonder if he cared more about that than pitching. I could see Willis getting back some value he’s lost over the last two seasons. Just don’t expect pre-06 numbers. Projections: 16-9/4.15/1.35/180