Fantasy Baseball Advice

I’ve got a double Roundtable post this afternoon as I got too busy with life and whatnot to post the one from last week.

The first one was hosted by Patrick Cain of the Albany Times-Union Fantasy Baseball section.  His advantageous location in the heart of New York State politics makes his blog the must read for the Governor and his staff (as in his staff must read it to him – the NY Guvn’r is blind, people!  If he can’t see prostitutes, we New Yorkers assume he’s much less likely to frequent them.  Wonder if he does the Ray Charles thing and feels their wrists to know if they’re skinny or not?).  Anyway, here’s the link and the question:

What cold starts should I be reading into…and why?

I answered this one about 2 weeks ago but my advice seems fairly prescient.   Worth checking out.

The second one is from Patrick DiCaprio of FantasyPros911.com - the site that fantasy pros like Grey and I go to only in the case of an emergency.  I kid of course as one of the 911 (Mike Podhorzer) is beating me both in an NL league and in the Fantasy Razzball standings (will do a post on the standings later this week).  Here’s their link and question:

Whom do you prefer for the remainder of the year, Aaron Hill or Howie Kendrick?

What – you expected Shawn Hill vs. Kyle Kendrick?  The answers on this one proved to be rather consistent.  Go figure.  On a side note, Kendrick would be a tough last name if you were an old Jew because the fellas would all nickname you Schmendrick (the Howie would fit in well too).  It would be almost as bad as being JJ Putz or Japanese pitching star Fakokta Mashugana.

It’s analogy time.  Stolen bases = candy.  Chris ‘Tall’ Young = baby.  Dexter Fowler‘s 5 SBs are thus like taking candy from a baby (or, as Steve Rogers would sing, like takin’ can-dee from a bay-bee).  It’s hard not to love Dexter Fowler right now.  He’s everything we hoped Cameron Maybin would be.  He’s now to the point where he’s must own in 10 and 12 team leagues especially when facing the man we shall now call Cristal (Chris Tall) Young (as opposed to his doppelganger Krispie Young).  But he’s still a rookie OF straight from AA (insert trite Josh Hamilton joke).  His .335 / 9 HR / 20 SB line in 400 ABs at AA does not equate to much more than a 5th OF when equivalized for MLB.  But neither did Hanley Ramirez’s.  And you never know in Colorado.  So if he’s available in your league, you’d be more of a Dexter if you didn’t take a chance on him.  If he’s already snapped up, look to trade that bottom starter, reliever, or OF you’ve got.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brad Hawpe – Left on a stretcher after Hundley hit him in the neck with a pickoff throw.  Sounds like someone had some misplaced aggression about Fowler.  Hopefully Hawpe’s okay… Because I have him on a team!  No, I’m kidding.  I don’t own him.

Chris Young – 3 IP, 8 ER.  Starting a flyball pitcher in Coors is a risky propostion as it is, then throw in he’s clocked at about 17 seconds to home.

Hanley Ramirez – Hit by a Maine pitch in yesterday’s game, sending fantasy baseball owners to the ground screaming, “Why don’t you hit Maybin?!”  The x-rays came back negative, which is oddly positive — why they don’t just say it’s positive is a modern mystery for The Jonas Brothers to solve in a bad Disney Channel movie.  Hanley will probably miss a few days to give his hand time to be less boo-booish.

Joel Hanrahan – 1/3 IP, 3 ER.  Hanrahanananananan is one of my biggest disappointments this year.  All you have to do is save a game every 8th day, is that so hard?  Someone in the comments yesterday mentioned Julian Tavares as a possible replacement.  With a WHIP under 1 and a 3.12 ERA, it’s possible.  I don’t think Mock, who also gave up 3 earned in two-thirds of an inning, is the answer.  Kip Wells may be the answer.  Though the question is unprintable.

Ryan Madson – Got the save.  Brad Lidge has knee inflammation.  Which doesn’t sound bad until you realize that he had an MRI last week that was just disclosed yesterday.  So Lidge’s hurting for over a week with knee problems?  This smells like a future DL stint. Own Madson in every league you can.

LaTroy Hawkins – The Valgreen’s is shut down again for a few days.  A DL stint seems likely here, as well.

Troy Tulowitzki – The Rockies made a questionable move yesterday benching Tulo because of his slump.  He just needs to hit his way out of it and, as they say in the third grade, stop making a federal case out of it.  His BABIP is saying he’s been extremely unlucky.  Maybe he sits out for a few days, but I don’t think they’re boneheaded to hold him out for that long.  The good news is Barmes will play short and Stewart will see time at 2nd base.  I’m not paying a lot, but I am buying into a rebound.

Ryan Zimmerman – One N, 2 HRs.  I hated him so much last year that I’m finding it hard to get excited about Zimmerman this year no matter what he does.  Maybe if he stole 5 bases in a game…

Brian Bannister – 7 IP, 1 ER, 1 hit.  And six walks.  Belch.  You do what you do, but I wouldn’t start him in any league.

David Purcey – 5 IP, 6 ER.  Jose Guillen hit two home runs off him.  Someone needs to be on Bully Beatdown!

Anibal Sanchez – 6 IP, 6 ER.  Sticking with the theme of starters I’m not crazy about, here’s number three.

Rickie Weeks – HR and 4 RBIs.  Just stay healthy…. Or at least have an injury right before Gordan Beckham gets called up.

Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 1 ER.  2.19 ERA on the year.  Was really impressed with what I saw yesterday with Cueto.  He seems to be very composed on the mound and his stuff is filthy.  He won’t stay under a 3 ERA all year, but 3.50 seems attainable.

Carlos Delgado – News is this Latin 36-year-old is having trouble with his hip.  When Tatis took the field to replace him, Delgado yelled, “Stay off my lawn!”

Scott Baker – 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 Ks.  Hey, it’s an improvement, right?  Now see if you can trade him.

Raul Ibanez – Grand slam, has 6 HRs on the year and a .342 average.  Sure, he’s not hitting .340 this year.  He won’t break 30 HRs either, but I don’t think he’s necessarily a sell high guy either.

Justin Verlander – 7 IP, 9 Ks.  Well overdue bounceback start from Verlander.  He’s a 4 ERA pitcher, so when you have a 9 ERA, you have some correcting to do.  Also, King of the Obvious says, “The Yankees are currently reeling.”

Tim Wakefield – 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit.  That’s Wake on waivers.  Here’s you picking up Wake.  Here’s Wake giving up 8 earned in 2 1/3 innings.

Carlos Pena – 9th homer yesterday.  Could he hit 50?  Maybe there’s a 10% chance, but 40 is in his sights.  ‘Member when Sosa hit 20 HRs in June of ’98?  Now some of my entire teams don’t have 20 home runs.  They do have 5 steals though.  AmblyDexterous!

Every season around this time of the year managers start to grow bored with their drafted players and the siren’s call of rookie nookie starts to take hold. As injuries and ineptitude begin to set in and pitchers go on the Disabled and Disgraced Lists, the buzz surrounding pitching prospects can overwhelm one’s better reasoning. I’m not going to harsh your mellow and tell you not to take a flier on a young pitcher, I just ask that you understand what you’re most likely going to get. Chances are a prospect will give you solid 4th or 5th starter numbers. Don’t overpay for a name. A lot of commenters have been asking about trading for names like Hanson and Price; generally, these trades are grossly overvaluing young arms.

I can already hear some of you: “P0rk, you’re an idiot.” Plenty of people may agree with you but I come bearing numbers. Argue with these, jerk:

Clayton Kershaw: the buzz about Kershaw prior to his call up last season had many managers saving their waiver priority in order to land a stud. Instead they got a roofie with a 5-5 record, 4.26 ERA, and 1.50 WHIP. At least he was nice enough to give you 100 Ks in 107.2 innings. Don’t be rude, thank the man.

Max Scherzer: Jobacum was overshadowed by Kershaw in a lot of places, but not here at Razzball. I’ll share a secret with you even though you called me an idiot: Grey knows what he’s talking about. Over 56 innings last season Scherzer posted a 3.05 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 66 Ks with only 22 BB. If he played for a team that provided run support he would have had a record better than 0-4. Scherzer is one of the few exceptions but his lack of playing time still limited his value.

Johnny Cueto: he failed to live up to the hype, pitching more like Kuato than the Cueto people expected. In 31 starts he had a 4.81 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and went 9-14. Go ahead Mr. Glass-is-half-full, tell me about his 158 Ks in 174 IP. Now that you’re done living in the past there is good news; his K/9 this season matches last year’s while his ERA and WHIP are a respectable 2.55 and 1.19. Two games is a small sample size but you did read Grey’s recommendation, right? He was even nice enough to repeat himself for the slow kids.

Edinson Volquez: last season Volquez made a lot of Cueto owners think they grabbed the wrong Red. I hope you enjoyed it because his career numbers show he’s probably an above 4.00 ERA pitcher. Unlike Scherzer, he had enough playing time to be an actual exception to the rule. Which is why I’m pleading a technicality and saying his 80 innings from 2005 to 2007 disqualify him from this discussion. You’ll need bigger guns than that to prove me wrong, chump.

Tim Lincecum: There’s no denying Tiny Tim is a great pitcher, but when he first hit the big leagues in 2007 the big leagues hit back. Over 24 starts he had a 4.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and went 7-5. The 150 Ks in 146.1 innings did let the world know he came to bring the pain.

Joba Chamberlain: If you ignore his 24 innings in 2007 (don’t argue that I can’t do that since I used Volquez’s 80 innings against him, I’m writing this so what I say goes), Joba was worth the hype in 2008. In 42 games,12 starts, and 100.1 innings he had a 2.60 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 118 Ks and had some people drawing comparisons to Papelbon. His move to the rotation and the Yankee Jet-stream has his bad numbers up this season and his good numbers like K/9 down. Joba owners are hoping its nothing a stiff drink couldn’t fix. What, too soon?

Yovani Gallardo: Yo’s 2007 numbers were respectable, and by respectable I mean 3.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 101 Ks in 110.1 innings. Unlike his frustrating teammate Parra he showed control in issuing just 37 free passes. How respectable is that? Respectable enough to finish 9-5 in 17 starts.

Chad Billingsley: The people demand more Bills and I’m never one to leave you hanging. In 2006 C.Bills went 7-4 but didn’t show the league what really made him special. Over 18 games and 16 starts (90 innings for those of you keeping score at home) he notched a 3.80 ERA and1.67 WHIP but just 59 Ks to 58 BB. Compare his 2006 K:BB to ’07 (141:64) and ’08 (201:80) and it should be no surprise that some are whispering Cy Young this season. Now that I gave you more Bills where are the mittens I asked for? My quid is missing your quo.

Johan Santana: While Johan may have competition for the title of best pitcher in the game these days, nobody will argue he’s been one of the most dominant pitchers of the modern era. Except maybe this guy.  Johan is perhaps the best evidence that no matter how talented a pitcher is, their first season may not be a good representation of their skills. In 2000 Johan had a 6.94 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, and just 64 Ks in 86 IP. His career numbers of 3.08 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 9.3 K/9 show just how dominant he became after 2000.

Some of these players did have numbers justifying the hype, but the danger in chasing buzz is it is too easy to get suckered into playing the weepstakes. If you dropped Aaron Cook for Kershaw or Cueto you gave up a 3.96 ERA and 16 wins for Kershaw’s 4.26 and 5 or Cueto’s 4.81 and 9. That’s not exactly a bargain. Even the likes of Andy Sonnanstine (4.38 and 13 Wins) and Jorge Campillo (3.91 and 8 Wins) had numbers falling within the range shown above. Do Sonnanstine and Campillo excite you? Say no even if the answer is yes. You should take a chance on a player like Hanson or Holland, just don’t give up too much for him. And if you happen to own Hanson now would be a great time to try to sell him to a manager that’s fallen into the hype trap.

As Stephen Drew tried to take that step forward in 2009 that fantasy baseball owners craved, he hurt his hamstring.  Wonder what a Drew family vacation is like… “J.D., you wanna go see the world’s largest bottle cap?  It’s supposedly 17 inches in circumference!” “Sure, I’ll go tell Mom and Pop.”  On the way to the Sequoia, two hamstring pulls, a fractured hip and the Mom needs Tommy John surgery.  Pretty sure no one’s giving them joint family coverage.  The MDs in AZ say Drew’s injury shouldn’t knock him out longer than the 15 days.  When you consider he hadn’t even started to hit yet, looks like Drew’ll begin his season mid-May.  All in all, this is a decent buy low guy right now.  If you can trade some spare parts for him (closer-du-jour, extra OF, etc.), he should prove worth stashing.  He’s still talented and he can have a solid three-quarters of a season.  Hopefully, he spent the first quarter on someone else’s team.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday for fantasy baseball:

Brandon Webb – Earliest return date is late-May.  Still a long season so you can’t really sell him short, but with the trouble coming in his right shoulder, I’d be worried this doesn’t become a worst situation before it gets better.

Brian McCann – Headed for Lasik with eye problems.  Maybe he said fudge and Cox made him suck on some soap.  David Ross is filling in for him on the Braves and he hit a HR yesterday.  Ross actually isn’t an awful replacement for fantasy owners either.  You might get some pop and his killer average shouldn’t hurt for only two weeks.  It matters how deep your league is, but I’d also look at Salty, Hundley, Shoppach and Laird, in that order.

Chris Getz – Headed to the DL.  I know what you’re thinking, Gordon Beckham gets his chance!  Yeah, but what matters is what Ozzie Guillen’s thinking.  Ozzie’s thinking Brent Lillibridge and Jayson Nix.  I know what you’re thinking now, what’s Ozzie thinking?!

Jake Peavy – 5 IP, 5 ER.  I know this is no in-depth observation, but he just doesn’t look right.  This is very sad for me.  He’s given up way too many home runs and walks.  I wouldn’t sell him short because he can go on a ten game run where he’s unhittable… Or at least I hope he does.

Justin Upton – HRs in back-to-back games in between numerous flailings at breaking pitches (Jaboo strikes again).  At this point, he should just change his last name to Upside.  Because that’s both his allure and the reason he’s overvalued in every non-keeper league.

Mark Reynolds – 5th homer yesterday.  Guess who else hit his 5th homer yesterday?  Davis.  We got ourselves a hot one, America!

Conor Jackson – 2-for-6.  Got the game winning hit yesterday, which means poopie-squat for fantasy, but it might be the confidence builder he needs.

Cameron Maybin – 0-for-5, batting .189 on the season.   Sleeper pick went comatose the first month of the season.  I’m ready to pull the plug in 12 team leagues.  Potential replacements are Spillborghs, Kubel, Cody Ross, Teahen or Juan Rivera, obviously depends on what is out there.

Clayton Kershaw – 4 2/3, 9 ER.  Walk, tried to get ahead of a hitter resulting in a home run… Rinse and repeat.  From an absolute gem against the Giants where he K’d 13 to back-to-back beatings. He’s too good/erratic to bench.  If you bench him, you’ll miss a gem.

Adam LaRoche – 2 HRs, bringing his season total to 5.  Guess all it took was being on the same team as his little brother, Andy.  (Why haven’t the Yanks signed Mark Teixeira’s little brother to get him off his typical slow start?   Like Cody Ransom or Angel Berroa are better?)  Maybe now he’s a 2nd half of April hitter.  His upside still seems like Jorge Cantu… And his downside too.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – 7-for-13 this weekend.  As I said last week, I was giving him one more week.  This was the kind of weekend I was looking for.  He’s earned a bit longer leash.

Kenshin Kawakami – It’s 4 starts now and the control (11 BB in 21.2 IP) + gopheritis (5 in 4 games) has us thinking Atlanta signed some 1/2 price sushi.  The K’s are intriguing but he has to be downgraded to matchup starter vs. start every game.

Manny Parra – 5 IP, 1 ER.  Hey, I’m a fan, but frankly this could’ve been a five earned game just as easily.

Jose Valverde – Got the save but was noticeably limping.  Cuddle Boy, Hawkins should be held for now.

Andy Sonnanstine – 4 IP, 7 ER.  The A’s whooped that trick.

B.J. Upton – 0-for-4, .156 on the season.  While J. Up is all upside, B. Up is not this bad.

Justin Masterson – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  Keeping walks down and Ks up.  Hopefully, Dice-K doesn’t take the bullet train back.

Pablo Sandoval - 4-for-4, HR, now batting .292.  Hope everyone held out hope where he was eligible at catcher.  He’s stocky (read: fat) but doesn’t have that much power.  My preseason projections gave him 14 homers and a .300 average.  Still sounds about right.

Jered Weaver – 7 shutout innings leaves him at 2-1 with good ERA, WHIP, solid K rate (almost 8 per 9 IP) and, most importantly, he’s not another Angel pitcher with a broken wing.  Only owned in 87% of ESPN leagues.  Seems to be underrated – maybe because of his brother?

Jordan Zimmermann – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  No weepstakes here so far.  Very impressive start against the Mets.  He won’t obviously stay below a 3 ERA, but while teams try to figure him out, he could coast to a solid 1st half.

Jarrod Washburn – 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER. Looks like someone let my Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell get in their head.

Joakim Soria & Brandon Morrow – Both have sore shoulders that – for now – are just day-to-day.  (Soria + Morrow = Sorrow?)  Morrow seems ready to go for next game where Soria might be due back middle of next week.  Might be worth playing Aardsma and Juan Cruz in deep leagues or if you need saves.

Derrek Lee – Removed because of neck spasms.  When you’re batting .197, you’re snapping your neck from the pitcher to the catcher a lot.

Ross Ohlendorf – Outdueled Peavy to go to 2-2 with a 3.24 ERA.  We really want to root for a guy with such a fun last name to say but his crazy low K rate (10 K in 25 IP) hints at a pitcher who’ll get flogged sooner vs. later and often vs. seldom.

Aaron Laffey – Won his 2nd game this week since being called up from the minors.  He’s far from a K guy but he is throwing a lot of ground balls right now.  Consider him for spot starts but he’s more likely to earn a full-time spot this year on a Razzball staff right now vs. a real fantasy baseball staff (real fantasy baseball staff – is that an oxymoron?)

Armando Galarraga – Now at 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA.  Guess the fact we named him #1 most risky pitcher motivated him or something.  He’s K-ing nearly a guy an inning which is above last years 6.35/9 IP rate.  We haven’t flipped positions on him just yet but getting there.

Shawn Hill – To the 15-day DL.  Hmm… maybe he’s part Drew?

Chris Ray – Sherrill won’t see saves in back-to-back games according to the O’s.  Then again, according to the O’s they have a major league pitching staff.

Adam Jones – 3-for-4, HR and 1st steal of the year.  The steals will come and the power will continue.  He’s not a sell candidate, unless you’re against Prop 420.

Cornerstone, nay, cornerboulder, Prince Fielder is off to another yawnstipating start.  Last year he hit 8 homers through the month of May.  Boca Burgers were blamed last year, but maybe he just can’t swing a bat in cold weather because all he can think about is getting back to his hotel room and putting on his Snuggie.  He’ll only be 25 in May and is still completely capable of 40 HRs on the year.  If you can somehow wrestle Fielder away from an impatient owner, go for it (try a roofie!).  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy and sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Jason Frasor – Newest victim of Scott Downs’ Syndrome?  Maybe.  Or maybe… Downs Goes… Frasor!  Downs Goes… Frasor!

Aaron Hill – He’s 27 years old — yo, that shizz is magical, Copperfield! — he has power for a 2nd baseman and he’s not a drain on average.  Best case scenario is 20/5/.290 — That’s pretty good for a 2nd baseman when you consider Utley has the conch shell at 30/12/.310.

Nelson Cruz – Damn, Fonzie, you thought I’d say he was a sell after his big time start, huh?  Nah, noob.  I wrote a whole fantasy baseball sleeper post on this guy two months ago.  Recognize!

Adam Lind – Everyone and Grey’s mother seems to like this guy.  Okay, I do too!  Just keep expectations in check.  If you can get Krispie or Ludwick for Lind, I’d go for it.

Josh Anderson – With Thames on the DL, Anderson’s going to have some time to steal bases.  Your league has to be fairly deep for his name to matter, i.e., I picked him up in my 16 team mixed league… Then dropped him for Hawkins.  Well, nevermind that.

Tommy Hanson – Looks like he’s going to get the call soon.  Don’t drop anyone that is currently helping you, but if you’re choosing between middle reliever schmohawk door number one or Hanson, I’d go for Hanson.

Phil Hughes – Is it Phil or Phillip? He’s still very young with tremendous potential.  He’s not just on your radar because he’s a Yankee. With Wang wrong, Hughes could be up any moment now.

Derek Holland – Could be an impact pitcher right now.  He’s contending with Millwood, McCarthy, Padilla, Harrison and Scott Feldman. (Yes, that last name sounds like Skippy from Family Ties’s real name.)  In 12 team leagues or deeper, I’d pay to find out how long until Holland’s inserted into the rotation.

Josh Johnson – Going with the just-abandoned Josh theme, if Johnson avoids injury, he can be this good all year.

Mike Lowell – No, I’m not saying he’s going to keep up a pace of 150 RBIs, but you can’t sell him and get value so you may as well keep him and have a decent cheap 3rd baseman.

Cameron Maybin – He’s been pretty bad so far, but go watch this.  Did you see how close the leftfielder was playing?  That’s cuz the leftfielder had no idea the scouting report on Maybin and he said to himself this scrawny guy isn’t hitting the ball over my head.  Maybin!  (Okay, I’m completely bonkers pushing Maybin as a Buy at this point, but if you’re in a deep league and someone thinks your Melky is going to breakout, I’d get Maybin from them.)

SELL

Geovany Soto – I don’t think you should sell him for a pair of Meat Puppet reunion tour tickets, but while last year is still fresh in people’s minds, you might look to unload Soto.  Not only is he struggling, but he might be struggling because of shoulder problems.  That spells trouble.

Jason Bartlett – Besides having a name that sounds like a jobber in the WWE, he’s having himself a nice little start for the year.  .373 with 5 steals.  Well, la di da.  He’s going to hit .280 and steal 20 bases.  If you can get anything for him, go for it.  Otherwise, just ride out his hot streak for now, but keep your mind open to other MIs.

Jarrod Washburn – Wanna know what it’ll feel like if you continue to hold him?  Punch yourself in the stomach.

Emilio Bonifacio – 2 walks in 66 ABs.  He has speed, guys.  There’s no doubt he can steal.  At some point the goose is going to cook his average real unpheasant.

Chris Volstad – He’s running an ERA out there under 3.00 and it should be above 4.00.  He will probably be usable this year, so you don’t need to drop him, but you should use caution with him or trade him for a different piece.

Kyle Lohse – Drop the H.