What’s up, everybody? It’s Sunday and I’m pitching for Itch today, so I wanted to do a quick look at pitchers who are currently wonky on the Player Rater thanks to high or low Win values. Because pitcher wins are so difficult to predict and oftentimes arbitrary. Let’s keep in mind Rays’ reliever Pete Fairbanks was in the Top 10 for wins last year (6) and there are 5 relievers in the top 50 in wins over the past two years. Did you know that Antonio Senzatela and Lucas Giolito both sport a cumulative 6-7 record from 2020-2021? Pretty wild, eh? And you thought Rockies pitchers were useless. Almost all fantasy baseball formats require Wins, it’s helpful to think about pitchers who are winning more often than they should (the Charlie Sheens), or the wingmen who just can’t get a win (the Goose). Catch me after the jump to see my Buy, Holds, and Sells!
Charlie Sheens (Winning)
- The Red Sox are one of the best hitting teams in baseball this year, and Pivetta’s benefitted from the offensive output by having a +6.9 Win value on the Player Rater, good for 8th best in the league so far. Meanwhile, Pivetta is only slightly above average in ERA and Ks while having a negative value in WHIP. With a BABIP over the past week of .156 while K’ing less than 7 per 9, Pivetta is a great SELL option if you’re rostering him. If you’re going to hold him or acquire him, he’s best deployed in best ball, points leagues that value wins, and DFS.
- A lot of readers indicate to me on my Monday column that they don’t trust E-Rod, and I don’t either. Now that I’m looking at him on the Player Rater, I’m more worried than ever. E-Rod — also on the Red Sox — has benefitted from the offensive output and shares a +6.9 Win value on the Player Rater with Nick Pivetta. Meanwhile, his ERA and WHIP are at negative values while his Ks are on par with Pivetta’s less than thrilling K rate: they each have 42Ks. Pretty wild, eh? Of course, Pivetta has more innings and E-Rod is performing better with his K/9 upside. Still, we’re looking at a situation where E-Rod is probably a SELL, and you would be best to highlight his ability to induce swinging strikes when negotiating.
- Of all the players in the top ranks on Win value, Frankie Montas has the lowest value in terms of Point Shares, which is Rudy’s way of creating a fair playing field to compare all players. Although Montas features a +6.9 win value (I sense a theme here…), he’s got a -4.6 point shares, and has -3.6 ERA value and a -3.5 WHIP value. He’s rostered in 75% of leagues, and other than his wins, he’s actually hurting most fantasy teams right now. Montas benefitted from the wild win streak that the A’s had earlier in the season, and he’s had a ridiculous 5 quality stars in 8 games started. Montas is actually heating up a bit recently, so I recommend to HOLD Montas in the hopes that he can improve his ERA and WHIP in the warmer weather.
The Goose (Wingmen)
- Does Garcia have a full time job? As long as the Astros keep getting injured, he does. Garcia’s a young pitcher who is K’ing a ton of batters — nearly 11 K/9 on the season and 12.6 K/9 over his last three starts — but he’s struggled to go deep in games. Right now, he’s producing positive value in every category except wins. In fact, he’s got a 0-3 record to go with his 3.60 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Yikes. He could easily be a full stat block contributor if he gets a bit more luck, and given that he’s rostered in only 26% of RCLs right now, I call Garcia a BUY in all formats.
- Had a stiff back at the end of spring training and we knew he’d struggle with innings for a while, which has left him with no wins on the year after 5 starts. Meanwhile, he’s got career highs in K/9 (nearly 13!) but also a really poor 4.2 BB/9 situation. With his xFIP at 2.96 and ERA at 3.55, he’s producing good value in those categories. If he can manage his walk rate back to his career norms (about 1BB/9 less than where he is now), and get some wins under his belt, then Gray will be a good BUY or HOLD option.
Dylan Bundy:
- I field a lot of questions about Bundy on Mondays, which sounds like a bad Married with Children block on Nick at Nite. Or it could be all those Ted Bundy movies we had last year, take your pick. Bundy’s got a great K/9 sitting near 10, a sub-1.15 WHIP, and an xERA and FIP nearly 2 points below his ERA (which sits at an ugly 5.00). In addition, Bundy’s garnered zilch in the win department over seven starts, going 0-4 on the year. If you’re reading baseball cards, you see 0-4 with a 5.03 ERA and you toss that player out. If you read SABRmetrics, you see 3.06 xERA, the 20.1 K-BB%, and you get jazzed for the next Zac Efron flick. Last week he had a bad outing where his ERA was 16.20 but his FIP was 2.21 and SIERA 4.24. In other words, he got really unlucky with where the balls landed. He had a true bad game on Saturday, but every pitcher gets rocked once in a while. Loyal readers of my Monday column will remember my comments about Gerrit Cole going a month with an FIP north of 6 and a HR/9 above 3 last year. Aaron Nola finished the 2020 season with a 6.60 ERA over his last three starts. Trevor Bauer has career-worst HR/9, barrel rate, and hard hit % right now. If you’re willing to wait on those players, you should be willing to wait on Bundy. If you’ve been following my rankings, you know I’m a huge fan of Bundy, and we’ll see his luck turn very soon, making him a strong BUY option.
That’s it for today! Catch me tomorrow for my weekly rankings, and leave a note for Itch down in the comments letting him know that you miss him. What players are you thinking are lucky or unlucky so far? Drop me a note in the comments with your favorite options! See ya!
