No Doubt

Player Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2
Charlie Morton TB BAL NYY
Patrick Corbin WSH MIA KC

There was a 3 start stretch where people we panicking over Patrick Corbin, but after consecutive starts of 7 IP and 1 ER, owners can again breathe a sigh of relief. The average velocity on the four seamer in those 2 starts is back over 93 mph and the command has improved, which allows him to throw the slider we all know and love.

The whiff rate on the slider in the last two outings were both over 32% along with the sinker over 70% GB rate and sub .130 batting average against. Small sample size, sure, but if you own Corbin, you know it feels a lot more secure starting him now.

 

 

Start Em If You Got Em

Player Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2
Matthew Boyd DET @CHW BOS
David Price BOS @TOR @DET
Jake Odorizzi MIN @OAK TEX
James Paxton NYY @NYM @TB
Mike Minor TEX LAA @MIN

The regression to the mean happened for Boyd in June as he had a .319 BABIP and a 28.6% HR/FB rate. He’s not the sub 3 pitcher he was in the first 2 months of the season, but he’s certainly better than his 5.90 ERA June.Might as well call it the group of recent disappointment. Guys that you may have finally bought into as solid pieces in your rotation have gotten a little shaky recently. For Matthew Boyd, the good news is that the K rate has maintained, which still makes him a useful asset in any 2 start week.

Give me the under on 3.50 ERA for the rest of the season, but that seems to be about the right number. As with Corbin earlier, if the slider is working, I expect the rest of the numbers to come around.

 

Serviceable

Player Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2
Jack Flaherty STL @SEA @SF
Griffin Canning LAA @TEX @HOU
Ross Stripling LAD ARI SD

3.02 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 27% K rate, and 4.4% BB rate in 2018 earned Ross Stripling a spot in the bullpen and occasional spot start duty in 2019. The inevitable Rich Hill injury has yielded a rotation spot for Stripling. The Dodgers only let him go 3 innings and 60 pitches in his first start back, so, you’ll have plan on not getting a full start until he gets extended.

However, Stripling has been putting up the same numbers this season as he was in 2018 mixing between starter and ‘pen arm except that he may be the only person in history to have his K rate drop with work in the bullpen. Stripling likely gets another month in the rotation, and if your league mates haven’t been paying attention, he’s worth the pickup.

 

Place Your Bets

Player Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2
Dylan Bundy BAL @TB @TOR
Dallas Keuchel ATL PHI MIA
Logan Allen SD SF @LAD
Trent Thornton TOR BOS BAL
Tyler Mahle CIN MIL CLE
Joe Musgrove PIT CHC MIL

Dallas Keuchel went 5 innings (pitched in the 6th, but didn’t record an out) on 85 pitches in his first outing for the Bravos. While he does have the Cy under his belt and it feels like a great signing for Atlanta as they bring along their plethora of young arms, chances are strong that he won’t provide a high K rate. However, he has been a good source of innings and ratio boosting more often than not. There’s likely an adjustment period as he gets back into MLB game action, so, place your bets…

 

Brown Paper Bag

Player Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2
Adbert Alzolay CHC @PIT @CHW
Wade LeBlanc SEA STL OAK
Nick Pivetta PHI @ATL @NYM
Zac Gallen MIA @WSH @ATL
Jakob Junis KC CLE @WSH
Jeff Samardzija SF @SD STL

We just profiled Adbert Alzolay this week on the Ditka, Sausage, and Fantasy Sports podcast here on Razzball. As a Cubs fan, I’m excited about the potential that Alzolay has shown with the change up improving vastly over the last couple seasons.

Yeah…that’s Freddie Freeman reaching for the change 6 inches off the plate, and that’s not even the money pitch in his arsenal. This is a weird group of guys that all may push the limits of your intestinal fortitude.

Free Streamonator Pick of the Week: Guess what, the Streamonator continues its infatuation with the one, the only, Jakob Junis.

 

Eyes Wide Shut

Player Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2
Jose Suarez LAA @TEX @HOU
Ariel Jurado TEX LAA @MIN
Chase Anderson MIL @CIN @PIT
Daniel Mengden OAK MIN @SEA
Trevor Williams PIT CHC MIL

Jose Suarez’s curveball is still a work in progress, but I’m a bit of a sucker for a pitcher with a good change up.

Ariel Jurado doesn’t have the K rate to move much higher and there is definitely a blow up chance as he showed at Cinci a few starts ago, but he’s gone 6 IP in six of his last sever starts with 5 quality starts in that time. Give him a slight boost if you’re chasing quality starts.

Swap everything that was just said about Jurado for Chase Anderson. Anderson has gone 6 IP once this season, but he has only failed to get at least one K per inning in only 3 of his appearances this season.

Daniel Mengden has the most amazing ‘stache. Another pitcher that won’t get you many Ks, but he has a 2.42 ERA as a starter this season.

 

I Immediately Regret This Decision

Player Team Opp. 1 Opp. 2
Clayton Richard TOR KC BAL
Glenn Sparkman KC @TOR @WSH
Adrian Houser MIL @CIN @PIT

 

Notes

  • There’s a possibility that Arizona runs a 4 man this week with 2 days off, but not likely.
  • Padres 6 man as is their standard operating procedure this year.
  • Tampa has a 2 start Ryne Stanek as an opener, but they haven’t said who will follow him as the primary pitcher for the game.
  • The Cubs may run a 4 man rotation after Adbert’s first start of the week.
  • In general, with the All-Star break, teams may adjust their rotations to 4 or 6 more freely this week, good luck!

 

Team Predicted 2 Start Days 1st Series 2nd Series 3rd Series
AL EAST
BAL Monday @TB @TOR
BOS Tuesday @TOR @DET
NYY Tuesday @NYM @TB
TB Monday, Tuesday BAL NYY
TOR Monday, Tuesday KC BOS BAL
AL CENTRAL
CWS X DET CHC
CLE X @KC @CIN
DET Tuesday @CWS BOS
KC Monday, Tuesday @TOR CLE @WSH
MIN Tuesday @OAK TEX
AL WEST
HOU X @COL LAA
LAA Monday, Tuesday @TEX @HOU
OAK Tuesday MIN @SEA
SEA Tuesday STL OAK
TEX Monday, Tuesday LAA @MIN
NL EAST
ATL Tuesday PHI MIA
MIA Tuesday @WSH @ATL
NYM X NYY PHI
PHI Tuesday @ATL @NYM
WSH Tuesday MIA KC
NL CENTRAL
CHC Monday @PIT @CWS
CIN Monday MIL CLE
MIL Monday, Tuesday @CIN @PIT
PIT Monday, Tuesday CHC MIL
STL Tuesday @SEA @SF
NL WEST
ARZ X @LAD COL
COL X HOU @ARZ
LAD Tuesday ARZ SD
SD Monday (6 man) SF @LAD
SF Monday @SD STL

 

 
  1. Kruk_Ain't_An_Athlete says:
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    14-team QS & Sv+Holds league

    Streamanator loves Bauer @KC @CIN, Flaherty @SEA @SF, Keuchel PHI/MIA so I’m good with those three.

    What about these (in order from Streamanator)
    Snell NYY
    MadBum STL
    Porcello @TOR
    Fried MIA

    Which two would you sit?

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
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      I think you have to sit Snell until we see him find his control again. So, give me MadBum and Fried. I’d have Snell 3rd.

  2. Kruk_Ain't_An_Athlete says:
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    Does it change it if I told you Snell’s line today?
    80 PC, 6 INN, 3 HA, 12 K, 2 ER, 3.000 ERA, 0.500 WHIP, W, QS

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
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      It’s a combination of me wanting to see it again and also that it’s vs the Yankees, I think I’m still passing, but I understand taking the shot on the upside if you’re chasing Ks.

      The Yankees are considerably less dangerous vs lefties, so, Snell has that going for him. Yanks are the have the most runs vs righties by 35, 25th vs lefties.

      • Kruk_Ain't_An_Athlete says:
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        Thanks for the info, B_Don.

        Good stuff, as always!

        • Raindoggg says:
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          I think Madbum, Snell, Fried…..

  3. Gregory Baker says:
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    CBS is telling me Strahm and Bauer are two start pitchers this week as well… thoughts on them?

    • Bauer may get 2 starts if the Indians use a 4 man rotation, which is likely around the All Star break and he’d be a Start Em If You Got Em, borderline No Doubt. 2 nice match-ups, but he’s been erratic recently.

      The Padres have used a 6 man rotation all year. I doubt they break that cycle and let a young arm in Strahm break the cycle. His one start at SF is nice though and I’d be starting him for that one. If he does get 2, I don’t really want to start him vs the Dodgers, so, he’d fall to a Place Your Bets option for me.

      • gbaked says:
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        Super sweet. Thank you much.

  4. Sam says:
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    Drop max fried for Logan Allen? Limited moves league.

    • Depends how limited those moves would be. If it’s like an RCL and the limit is 500, I’d go ahead and make the swap. If it’s considerably less than that, I’d probably just hold on to Fried. Not sure what they provide you from here on out is that different even though I like Allen slightly more.

      Fried also has the better offense behind him and the Braves don’t use the 6 man rotation like the Padres, so, you’ll get more starts. If the Padres fall out of the wild card hunt, I think they may sit some of their young arms as well.

      • Sam says:
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        45 moves and I’m at 27

        • B_Don

          B_Don says:
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          I would just ride it out with Fried.

  5. Chucky says:
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    Quandary. Considering sitting two start Gallen @ Wash @ Atl. And also Nola @ Atl in lieu of Dakota Hudson @ SF and Tommy Milone v STL? Am I more stupid or just plain crazy? Ray is also available at home v Rockies but it’s been tough watching Ray. Sort of like watching root canal. What two pitchers would you suggest of the aforementioned five? Thanks.

    • I don’t trust Hudson and Milone. I’ll generally take the talent and upside, which they don’t represent. I feel better about Milone than Hudson FWIW.

      The key with Robbie Ray is just never, ever watch him pitch if you own him. Ks will be there and just hope that he gets pulled before the other team gets to him. Rockies outside of Coors are not nearly as scary being 19th in runs and 26th in HRs on the road.

      I’d rank your options, Robbie Ray, Nola, Gallen vs Milone is close, and then Hudson.

      • Chucky says:
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        Appreciate the in depth evaluation. Thanks. FWIW, Rockies lit up Ray last time out @ Az.

        • I mean, the 5 BBs was horrendous, but 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 Ks. Idk if I’d call that lit up.

  6. Harley Earl says:
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    Just wondering,

    You have any thoughts on Flaherty this week? I love the start vs. San Francisco later in the week but I’m not sure about his start in Seattle Tuesday night. What’s your opinion?

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
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      I’m starting Flaherty where I own him. The Mariners in Seattle aren’t overly concerning for me and likely a positive more than a negative. They are pretty middle of the pack at home for the season hitting a lowly .236 while relying heavily on the HR ball when they do get things done. And 9 of those were Edwin who is no longer there.

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