Two Start Pitchers, Week 10: Tanakan or Tanakan’t, That Is The Question

Masahiro Tanaka’s first 11 starts have been about as good as you could’ve hoped when you drafted him around the 30th-40th SP off the board. It felt like he was being ignored in some leagues and came at quite the value. He’s a no doubt starter this week with the way he’s been performing, but it may be a good opportunity to sell high on the veteran pitcher.

Most of the numbers are in line with his career (GB rate, LD rate, K rate, BB rate, 1st strike rate). However, there are a few indicators that he’s been a little lucky and his stuff may not be quite what it has been in previous seasons, specifically his moneymaker, the splitter.

His swinging strike rate is down to 11.1% from 14.1% in 2017 and 15.1% in 2016. His 77% contact rate is the 2nd worst of his career along with career worsts in hard hit rate, launch angle, and average exit velocity allowed. 80.6% left on base rate isn’t completely unsustainable, but it would be the highest of his career.

It’s my belief, and the numbers back me up, that the splitter is not the pitch we’ve seen in previous seasons (below), which is leading to less swing and miss, and harder contact. The vertical movement on the pitch is the worst we’ve ever seen from Tanaka. His swinging strike and K rates are down, and of his 3 primary pitches (FB, Slider, Splitter), the splitter is the only one that has a worse whiff rate at 11.69 down from 22.99 the previous season and easily the worst of his career. The batting average against the split finger is .333 this season compared to .220 and .191 in the previous 2 seasons. Similarly, the slugging percentage is up to .560 this season vs .344 in 2017.

I don’t believe that Tanaka is just going to fall apart and if you need a steady arm to balance your roster, I think he’s fine, but with his current numbers I believe you may be able to sell him high compared to what he provides the rest of the season.

Masahiro Tanaka, Nasty 88mph Splitter. ? pic.twitter.com/nvKbQExrQ4

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 31, 2018

No Doubt

While Tanaka is a sell high right now, you may be able to get Mad Max at a slight discount given his current numbers on the season are not sparkling as we’ve come to expect, but they should even out. Scherzer’s velocity is fine and is actually the 2nd highest average velocity of his career. If you watch him or look at the movement numbers, you can see his stuff is still nasty. The whiff rate is up on both the fastball and slider from last season along with the best overall swinging strike rate he’s ever shown. He currently has the 2nd lowest left on base rate of his career since 2009 and has been additionally unlucky with BABIP at .356. He’s getting the best ground ball rate of his career

Throw Em If You Got Em

An odd mix here in this tier. Greinke and Hill are the elder statesman. Greinke would be in the No Doubt grouping above, but a start at Colorado can be a risky first start to the week, however, you can’t bench him if you’ve been riding him so far this season. Rich Hill has bounced back from a tough first 2 starts on the season to get his numbers back on track

Then there’s Lucas Giolito, who we profiled on the podcast a few weeks back, coming off a complete game shutout at Houston. There can be some concern about workload coming off a complete game, but Giolito only threw 107 pitches over the 9 innings vs the Astros. The velocity on the FB is up, the K rate took a big jump, swinging strike rate is up, and things are looking up for the former top prospect.

Serviceable

Had to bring back an old term a group of my friends used to describe, well, just about anything. Food, fantasy players, golf shots, whatever, they’re serviceable or not serviceable. About all I can say for this group is that they are serviceable. There’s some upside here with Bassitt, Strahm, Matz, and Gray. Hamels and Marco have performed better than expected on the season.

In a game filled with high velocity fastballs and nasty breaking pitches, Marco Gonzalez doesn’t have either, but is getting the job done. The WHIP is high at 1.33, and may be a sign regression is on the way, but Marco mixes in a bunch of sub 90 mph variations on the fastball with a change and curve to keep the hitters off balance. He limits hard contact with a sub 30% hard hit rate at 29.2% (31st best), 4.9% barrel rate (51st best), and an average exit velocity of 86.9 mph (92nd). While I think there is a bad stretch potentially coming, I don’t think it’s this week as he gets the Rangers and Angels at home.

Brown Paper Bag

Remember when nobody wanted Gio Gonzalez in their rotation and the Yankees said, “Nah, we’re good.”  Well, he hasn’t gotten through 6 innings yet, but he is sitting with a 2.39 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The K rate has never been spectacular, but if you grabbed Gio at the back end of your draft or picked him up off your wire, you could definitely have done worse. There may even be a little more hope for a few more Ks as his swinging strike rate is at 10.4%, which is the 2nd best of his career, granted in a small sample size. If he qualified, his ground ball rate would be tied for 25th among qualified starters with the lede from the article, Masahiro Tanaka.

Eyes Wide Shut

Free Streamonator Pick of the Century, OF THE WEEK: Tommy Milone. Now, it’s possible that Milone doesn’t stick in the rotation, so, my apologies if news come out about that, but put a solid performance together in his first start of the season, and should get another look. Anything is better than Wade Leblanc, right?

I Immediately Regret This Decision

Notes and TBD 2 Starts

• It’s possible that the Angles, Padres,
• The Rays don’t announce any of their starters ahead of time, but it looks like Yonny Chirinos (Serviceable) could get 2, but not sure if that will be as the starter or the pitcher following an opener. The other 2 start option for the Rays hasn’t been announced either, but an educated guess would be Ryan Yarborough (Eyes Wide Shut).
• The Indians haven’t announced their starter for Tuesday yet. May be Adam Plutko, but wait and see. If it’s Plutko, he’s likely in the “I Immediately Regret This Decision” tier.
• Phillies have yet to say who’s going for them on Tuesday. Sounds like it’s either Nick Pivetta or Vince Velasquez. Both likely sit in one of the bottom 2 categories with games vs STL and at the Dodgers.
• Depending how the Reds rotation works out with the Doubleheader, Sonny Gray or the TBD 2nd pitcher for the day could have a 2nd start to wrap up the week.
• Orioles may use a 6 man rotation, but Gabriel Ynoa looks like he’s getting the start Monday. With him being on a limited work load and maybe not getting the 2nd start, he likely falls to the bottom group. It’s possible that Dan Straily gets used as the long man following Ynoa in these starts as well, but you don’t want to run Dan Straily out anyway.