There was a frenzy of activity during the trade deadline, and the outfield landscape shifted. Even though it is a week after the deadline, the timing of my write-up actually works out better. It allows me to fully digest the moves and get a clearer read on roles after the dust has settled. All stats reflected in the analysis are prior to Aug 8 game action.
On top of all the deadline activity, as a Juan Soto owner, I feel morally obligated to share my opinion on the situation and how it escalated into a full-blown DEFCON 1 crisis. It still bothers me. I will share my hypothesis on how the Mets turned a manageable calf injury into a potentially season-ending disaster (I hope I am wrong). It hurts and I literally feel pain writing that, but I must call it out.
Trade Deadline
Stock Up ⬆️
Jo Adell: Bump him up a little after the trade to Cleveland. He moves to a better park (#9 in park factor) whereas Angel Stadium is last in park factor in 2026 (#30). He has been batting 2 through 4 in his games with the Tribe (I mean Guardians). More importantly, he is out of LAA, and I think a change of scenery and a new coaching staff will help him make adjustments. I hope he goes full Brian Dozier mode on us in the final two months. He has hit HRs in bunches before, hitting 12 HRs in a span of 25 games last year.
Heliot Ramos: Two arrows pointing up for Ramos. This is a great move for him. He moves to the Bronx in a better lineup and leaves a park that played like the Serengeti (#26 in park factor) to Yankee Stadium (#7 in park factor). He has great power the other way and has neutral power splits in SF and on the road. He’s hit 3rd or 4th so far. We will see what happens when the band gets back together (Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger), but for now he has locked in playing time. That said, he is not a good defender, so he could get squeezed if his bat is not making up for his lack of defense.
Daulton Varsho: I like the move to Houston. Varsho plays elite defense and will continue to play every day. The park should help him. While there is no upgrade in overall park factor, it plays much better for HRs for LHBs (117 vs 108). He has hit 4th in his first couple of games (6th vs LHP) with the Astros and, surprisingly, is back in a playoff race.
Stock Down ⬇️
Taylor Ward: This trade hurts Ward as he takes a severe hit in terms of ballpark, dropping from a top-10 hitter’s environment all the way down to #28 in overall park factor. Additionally, he has been a disappointment this year. The power is gone. In case you forgot, he hit 36 home runs and had 103 RBIs last year. That seems like eons ago. Something does not seem right to me. He is getting on base this year via a 16.7% walk rate. He’s hit 8th twice and leadoff the last two games with Seattle. I expect him to hit higher in the order given his OBP, but landing in Seattle hurts his value.
Jasson Dominguez: The projection systems loved Dominguez, and I moved him down considerably in my rankings last week. I said I need to see it to believe it, and I was right. Once they acquired Ramos, he no longer had a spot. Consequently, they sent him down. I do not think he gets another shot with some big bats hopefully returning unless they swap out Spencer Jones with Dominguez, which could happen. However, even Jones is on borrowed time. Double arrow pointing down.
Lane Thomas: This move on paper seems ok for Thomas. He goes from a park that plays well to a neutral park (#11 in park factor). Yes, it’s hard to believe that Kauffman is #4 in park factor this year. Don’t tell the Royals that, because if you look at their stats, you would never guess it, despite KC moving in the fences this year. The Royals’ offense is putrid. Thomas is in a much better lineup now, but my main concern is playing time. He’s now in a platoon role with Mike Yastrzemski, which obviously is not good for his value.
Stock Flat ➡️
Bryce Harper: This move does nothing for Harper’s projected stats, but he gains outfield eligibility and immediately becomes a top 12 option at the position. While I do not mind the move and it gives him added flexibility, the concern for me is more about the elevated injury risk. I thought the whole purpose of him staying at 1B was to keep him healthy.
Mickey Moniak: No change for Moniak is actually a very good development and really can be considered a positive if you have shares. He was rumored to be on the block, and naturally leaving the confines of Coors is usually never good unless you go to Sacramento, i.e., Bing Bong. He signed a two-year extension and will be a staple, middle-of-the-order bat in the Rockies lineup and remain at Coors for the foreseeable future.
Lars Nootbaar: He remains flat after the trade to AZ. While he leaves Busch Stadium (#27 in park factor) and moves to AZ, which ranks #11, his lineup spot is still somewhat uncertain. He predominantly hit 5th in St. Louis. His spot in AZ is still a little unclear but looks to be settling into the 5-hole most often (he’s hit leadoff once, 5th twice and 6th). The Diamondbacks really have been top-heavy in terms of production this year. Besides health and durability concerns, I am a little worried about him losing time when and if Jordan Lawlar returns. I know that is a big if. Lovullo likes to jockey with the lineup, and Nootbaar most likely will sit vs LHP (pinch hit for already).
A Theatre Of Pain
About a week ago, I made a comment on one of Grey’s posts about how poorly the Mets handled Juan Soto’s calf injury as they are so apt to do. I was joking but serious. I said straight from the Mets medical manual… how to treat a calf injury… play DH. It is downright tragic how this played out.
The Mets’ mismanagement of injuries is notorious. If you are simply an outsider and look at the series of events (missteps) along the way, it is quite comical. However, it is devastating if you selected Sexy Dr. Pepper as your first-round pick and anchor of your fantasy team. A grade 2 calf strain is bad. I believe the Mets likely turned a mild grade 1 into a grade 2 and effectively doubled Soto’s IL time. Look at the timeline that I patched together:
Timeline:
- July 16: played LF; removed in 8th with calf soreness
- July 17: team off day
- July 18: out (calf)
- July 19-21: played 3 games in a row (DH twice, LF once)
- July 22: out (calf)
- July 23: team off day
- July 24: at DH but left game early
- July 25: out, gets imaging – grade 2 strain
They knew there was an issue right after July 16 and it wasn’t going away. I mean, how hard was it for them to get imaging earlier for a lingering problem?
Putting him at DH all of this time was moronic. You CANNOT rest a calf by playing DH. The last time I checked, baseball still involves running. I mean, they only have over three-quarters of a BILLION dollars invested in him. You talk about negligence. Maybe if they had given him some time off, he would be back by now or at least be able to return this season when we need him the most.
Thanks for reading. You can also find me on X at @Toolsy3.
