Looking at the overall 2026 fantasy baseball rankings, the top 80 starters for 2026 fantasy baseball is from around 200 overall to 275 overall, which is just about the end for 12-team mixed leagues. This is your fifth thru the beginning of the sixth starters. This is just about it for 12 team leagues, though the last tier in this post is still in 12-team league territory, so you’ll have to wait until the next post to finish off that tier. Don’t worry, on that next post, I’ll be by with another 50-ish pitchers for those in deeper leagues, and/or dynasty and keeper leagues.
Our subscriptions are up and running, and that comes with our online Fantasy Baseball War Room — now for auction drafts, AL-Only, NL-Only, Best Ball and more. Here’s Steamer’s 2026 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2026 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. All projections included here are mine, and where I see tiers starting and stopping are included. Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2026 fantasy baseball:
NOTE I: All my rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now.
NOTE II: Free agents are listed as just that and not yet projected. Once a guy signs, I will write out their blurb and add in projections, or remove them, if they sign in an unfavorable place. They are ranked currently where I think they might be if they sign on for a full-time job.
TO RETURN TO THE TOP 60 STARTERS FOR 2026 FANTASY BASEBALL
61. Gavin Williams – This tier started in the top 60 starters for 2026 fantasy baseball. This tier ends at Gore. I called this tier, “Broke and getting brokener or unbrokener but not on my teams.”
As for Williams, admittedly, I didn’t want to draft Gavin Williams as far back as last season and I don’t want to learn new things. There’s a smooth-brained take I can dispel through my medulla oblongata that says his Ks (9+) will be fine and his walks (4.5 BB/9) last year will come down as they were the previous season, but meh. Why am I risking it for the biscuit? Do I even like biscuits? Not really. What about Triscuits? I find them an oddly satisfying treat, but not enough to risk it. What if his walks are atrocious and his Ks come down? Or Ks are even the same? He was lucky last year wasn’t a disasterclass for his ERA (3.06), and I’m not drafting Towering Infernos hoping they don’t go up in flames. 2026 Projections: 9-11/3.87/1.32/172 in 168 IP
62. Tanner Bibee – Cleveland’s Starting Pitcher Factory, built in the hollowed-out Old Spaghetti Factory in downtown Cleveland, is a world renown manufacturer of great pitching, after making subpar bolognese for a decade. Betting against it doesn’t usually age well, like the green-canned Parmesan they used to shake on your mediocre linguini, but the Guards’ top starters are just not exciting me under the surface this year, as my Gavin Williams’s blurb attests and now Bibee. Tanner’s had better seasons than his last — 8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 4.24 ERA — and only 27 years of age to start the year, so maybe he reverts back to the guy who looked so great in 2024 — 9.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.47 ERA — but I’m so beyond meh in finding out. “Beyond Meh” was also my Yelp review for the Old Spaghetti Factory too. 2026 Projections: 11-11/3.92/1.20/171 in 177 IP
63. MacKenzie Gore – Traded to the Rangers. Went to a bull fight in Spain a long time ago. If you haven’t been, I’m going to explain it to you very fast: A bull chases a matador because he likes the color red, especially when it’s red on Statcast, and when, least expected, the matador waves his cape and gives up 8 ER in 3 IP and you get Gore’d right in the back, through your heart and your fantasy team lies dying in the ring. Something like that, it was a while ago. So, I nearly convinced myself Gore wasn’t as bad as I remembered from last year, because I am such a sucker for this guy. Rationalizations in my head, “If he had 10 wins, what he had in 2024, he would’ve been around a top 50 starter last year with his 10.4 K/9–” and I am literally falling for him again as I recount my rationalization. His command is too wonky and dangerous. I’m sorry, I’m out. If he can succeed anywhere, it would be Arlington, but I can’t keep getting in on this guy. Please, let me learn my lesson for once. 2026 Projections: 10-8/4.07/1.33/176 in 161 IP
64. Shane Smith – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Priester. I call this tier, “Broken emergency anchor glass.” This tier is usually filled with safe number five starters who you can get cheap and they anchor your staff. In the past, this was a condom tier. Something that could glue the team together. A Dollar Store condom, so there was some risk, but the wrapper says it’s safe. Not this year. No one is safe. These guys are the closest guys I can find to anchor your staff, but the emergency glass is broken and the anchor is hanging out on the floor. You can see I’m very familiar with ships, thinking anchors are behind emergency glass. Usually this tier is cheap, older guys, but this year is a super random collection of risky starters that feel more “break in case of emergency” than usual.
As for Smith, more so than precious years, this tier and the next tier feel like one giant tier. Usually it’s, “This tier is wonky but has some safer-type starters” and the next tier is all crazy upside. This year, I don’t really see any safer guys. There’s guys who will give you a 8-ish K/9 with a 4-ish ERA, but is that safe? Talk amongst yourselves. (Hint: It’s not.) So, this tier is oddly small this year and the next tier is incredibly big. Okay, as for Smith for real this time, the positives are a 146 1/3 IP last year with a 8.9 K/9 and a 3.81 ERA. That’s a solid backend starter in deeper mixed leagues. The negatives are 3.6 BB/9 and the White Sux. For some reason, he feels almost exactly like a 3.88 ERA pitcher with five wins, but wins are fickle and ERA isn’t much better. 2026 Projections: 8-12/3.88/1.27/157 in 155 IP
65. David Peterson – Building off what I said for Shane Smith, this whole tier could be called The 3.88-Ish ERA Tier. This is The 3.88-ish Club. Welcome, Ryne Nelson! Get to know each other, Shane Smith! I hope you brought beer, David Peterson. What do you mean you thought it was BYOB? Up until three sentences ago, you didn’t even know you were in the same club, how would we have communicated BYOB to you? So, Peterson is a guy I’ve liked for a few years now. He has an excellent slider and a super iffy fastball. He should have better command than he’s had, but, to be honest, he should have better everything most years and has only really made good on his promise in 2024. In the end, he’s likely a 7.7-8 K/9, 3-ish BB/9, 3.88-ish ERA pitcher. 2026 Projections: 10-8/3.71/1.34/141 in 161 IP
66. Joey Cantillo – His Steamer projections have him down for 3.87. Bro, join the club! Seriously, you have the perfect ERA for the club; join it. His 10.2 K/9, 4 BB/9, 3.21 ERA last year gives me more hope than the other guys in this tier, which nearly got him bumped up a tier or two above, but his rotation spot isn’t as secure as a guy like, say, Tanner Bibee. Cantillo excelled as a starter (2.96 ERA in 67 IP) and if Parker Messick makes a case in the spring to be in the Guards’ rotation, Logan Allen feels like the guy who should be bumped, not Cantillo. Cantillo was close to a sleeper for me, and I like him a lot. 2026 Projections: 9-9/3.81/1.28/143 in 141 IP
67. Clay Holmes – A lot of the Mets rotation is The 3.88-ish Club. Could’ve put Senga and Manaea in here too, but they feel even more risky. Mets rotation feels like this: Whatever we get, we get, and once we stop getting it, who cares because we have great prospect arms behind them. Call the back half of the Mets rotation, Queensbridge-to-the-future. That’s fine until you get to 2028 and your young pitchers all need surgery or TINSTAPP. Any hoo! Whaddup, Holmes? How about a 3.88 ERA? 2026 Projections: 11-10/3.91/1.30/141 in 171 IP
68. Ryne Nelson – Mentioned this before, but I was just reminded of it again, so I’m going to tell you again. I had Reese Olson ranked here, but moved him into the top 100 starters, then moved up Ryne Nelson because Nelson has been throwing 150 IP for the last three years (valuable for a fifth fantasy starter) but Olson has had shoulder issues. But back to the point I was making: Just because a guy has thrown 150 IP for the last three years, does that really make him a better guy to throw more innings or less? I don’t know. Pitchers are so funny. They are impossible to rank. Sooner you realize that, the better off you are. Nelson looks like a 7.8+, 2.3 BB/9, 3.80-ish starter who should give you innings. Welcome to The 3.88 Club! 2026 Projections: 9-11/3.76/1.12/146 in 169 IP
69. Joe Musgrove – Tommy John surgery in October of 2024, which doesn’t make him a natural fit for this tier, but wait until you hear this: His last season in 2024? His ERA was 3.88! This is not magic, this is real life! Musgrove doesn’t really fit in any tier, to be honest. He was a number three to two, prior to the surgery, and he’s going to be, like, 17 months removed from it by the time the season starts, so he should be totally fine for 2026’s season. If not in March, I will adjust, but he feels way safer than most of the guys who I have a problem with who haven’t returned yet. Tommy John surgery isn’t some new type of surgery and 17 months removed from it? Yeah, that’s fine for a number five in mixed leagues. You might actually get a way better return. 2026 Projections: 9-7/3.79/1.20/138 in 140 IP
70. Quinn Priester – [looking at the ‘Just draft Brewers starters’ Post-it, staring it now, starting to see stars, passes out, hits head, starts dreaming. In my dream, I draft all Brewers starters and win my fantasy league.] So, to not trust Priester you basically have to say, “This guy who just went 157 1/3 IP with a 3.32 ERA is a complete fluke for reasons, even though he just did it and the Brewers are just awesome for pitching.” I get the urge to lower Priester even further but I don’t know why. Because he’s never been good before? Okay, but he was good last year. That was a complete fluke? Okay, I guess it’s possible or just see him as a safe-ish five with a 170 IP potential and, you guessed it, a 3.88 ERA. 2026 Projections: 10-9/3.82/1.25/140 in 164 IP
71. Jack Leiter – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 100 starters for 2026 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “I’m using the milkrowave.” Is using the microwave fun? No. Is it fun to use the microwave and call it the milkrowave? Yes, undeniably. That’s this tier. Guys who are likely just using microwaves, but it’s late and I’m enjoying myself by pronouncing it milkrowave, making these guys fun.
Last year in this tier, I ranked Matthew Boyd, Nick Lodolo, Gavin Williams, David Peterson, and Drew Rasmussen. All guys who moved up; some way up. Then there’s Bubba Chandler, who is back again, guess who’s back, I just told you. Tell a friend. Tell a friend what? I just told you he’s back. The great news is Mitch Keller is finally no longer in this tier. [puts hands together in prayer] Small miracles. This is so late you could’ve dropped any of these guys and grabbed one of the better ones in most leagues. I’m not saying to do it, but you could prolly only draft starters from this tier in shallower leagues and be fine.
As for Leiter, already gave you a Jack Leiter sleeper. It was written while saying ooh la la. 2026 Projections: 9-10/3.71/1.26/164 in 161 IP
72. Logan Henderson – This is such a batshizz crazy tier. There’s going to be some incredible breakouts from here and also some absolute stinkers. Henderson had a 11.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 in 25 1/3 IP for the Brewers with a 1.78 ERA. Any other team would have him in their rotation, but is he in the rotation? I wanna say yes, after the trade of FreddyKBB. If he is, then he might not be in two weeks. Brewers are an excellent pitching development team, and I trust them implicitly but that doesn’t mean they’ll always do what’s best for fantasy. As with everyone in this tier, take the flyer and hopefully it works out. If not, there’s guys on waivers for you. 2026 Projections: 7-4/3.66/1.19/130 in 114 IP
73. Cody Ponce – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Jays. Isn’t a Ponce a…well ya know? Don’t you watch British cop shows? I’m on my BritBox Fantasy Team Name Generator and it’s saying to call my team, “Nine Wankers And A Ponce.” So, Ponce won the KBO MVP with 180 2/3 IP and a 12.6 K/9, 2 BB/9 and a 1.89 ERA, at 31 years of age. He had a 7+ ERA the last time he was in the majors, but, in fairness, he was a 6.72 ERA pitcher the year before in Korea, then seemingly unlocked a change. Not a change like “A change gonna come” but like he learned to throw a better change. It’s a solid flyer as a four or five.” And that’s me quoting me! 2026 Projections: 8-7/3.97/1.30/153 in 159 IP
74. Noah Cameron – Already gave you my Noah Cameron sleeper. It was not wickety-wickety-whack. 2026 Projections: 9-11/3.32/1.12/143 in 157 IP
75. Kris Bubic – Here’s the facts, Jack! If the guys in this tier were safer for 150 IP than they are (and they’re not safe for 150 IP at all), then they’d be ranked 20 or more starters higher. Bubic looks like he’s unlocked something, now if he can just lock up his “shoulder concerns,” we’d be so good. As previously stated, injury concerns are grains of salt. If a guy happens to be drafted as an ace (Schwellenbach) and has injury concerns, or just a track record of breaking down (Snell — Snell ‘n ‘bach?), then it’s not worth it. Mr. Kris Boob Itch (giggling like a child) looks solid if his price is around here. 2026 Projections: 8-10/3.46/1.16/123 in 120 IP
76. Grayson Rodriguez – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Went the other way in the Taylor Ward trade, going to the Angels. A team legendary for developing pitchers. [earpiece buzzing] What’s that? The Angels haven’t developed anyone without the last name Weaver in 25 years? Ah, I see. Bummer! Thankfully, Grayson is developed. Hopefully, he’s not developed bone spurs on his elbow, though. Or anything else on the arm-a-roo-ski. Grayson’s value is going to come down to how many innings he can pitch. By the way, I know I’m maturing (barely) because I saw a competitor of ours say they were giving Grayson 130 IP and said that was conservative, and I guffawed but didn’t publicly say anything. It’s not conservative. It’s prolly not realistic. 90 to 110 is likely realistic. 50 innings and shut down is possible too. 130 IP would be his highest innings total in a season and that is not realistic. It’s a solid lottery ticket though, and I don’t see why not, as long as the price is reasonable enough in drafts.” And that’s me quoting me! 2026 Projections: 8-5/3.71/1.26/122 in 112 IP
77. Bubba Chandler – Already gave you my Bubba Chandler fantasy. It was so fr fr, no cap. 2026 Projections: 7-14/4.34/1.41/148 in 136 IP
78. Roki Sasaki – Tough guy to rank in a tier, because he’s not really a number five. He’s kind of a number one or a number nothing. I could see projections for him of anything from 120 IP of ace-like numbers or “get to April and the Dodgers rethink Sasaki starting and he backs up Edwin Diaz, working the 7th and 8th two to three times a week.” The good news is if I am ranking my first middle reliever right now, he should have solid fantasy value as a middle reliever, and, in some leagues, Roki as a middle reliever might be more valuable than Roki, the starter. This is all, by the way, taking the leap of faith that his stats in the states (states’ stats?) are fluky and he’s actually much better than he’s shown so far. One last: FULL DISCLOSURE ALERT!!! Roki is likely going higher than this, so if you don’t get him, welp, oh well. I’m not reaching higher for him. His projections just don’t get him there for me, but a caveat in the caveat, if he’s hanging out on the board this long, I’d take the flyer on upside. 2026 Projections: 5-6/4.10/1.36/98 in 108 IP
79. Parker Messick – Joey Cantillo or Parker Messick might be a rotation battle, so I’m not sure if you wanna draft both of them, or maybe you do so then at least you get one of the winners. Or maybe both get a slot and Logan Allen is all-out (got his ass!). Some said Messick had the best change in college. Here’s what Hobbs said three (!) years ago before he was even drafted, “Parker Messick pitches in the ACC, a highly-competitive conference, and has been nothing short of stellar in his first two seasons, pitching out of the bullpen in 2020 before transitioning to Friday night starter in 2021.
Here are Messick’s 2020 statistics in a relief role: 1-1, 11.2 IP, 0.77 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 14.7 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9
And here is his 2021 performance: 8-2, 90.0 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 12.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9
So how does a six-foot southpaw with that level of output not project as anything more than a mid-to-back of the rotation starter? He doesn’t, and anyone who writes such is wrong. I’ll try not to be too redundant here, but left-handers with advanced changeups and above-average command represent relatively safe prospect commodities and tend to reach the big leagues more quickly.” By the way, Hobbs got a big job in minor league baseball, which I’m not sure I’m at liberty to say, but good for him! Last year, Messick in the minors went 133 2/3 IP with a 11.1 K/9, 3 BB/9, 2.83 ERA. He looks like yet another excellent Guards starter. Uh, besides the Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams ones. Keep in mind, just because a guy like Messick doesn’t have a rotation spot right now, the season is long, and he will get his innings. 2026 Projections: 7-5/3.94/1.35/124 in 117 IP
80. Cade Horton – Bit of a cheat putting him in this tier. He won’t be available in most leagues at this slot. So, it’s a bit like me saying, “Check out this great steal late!” but he’s drafted fifty slots before, so how is that a steal? Horton is totally fine if he is available here but he likely won’t be. I don’t see how his 7.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 rates as anything higher than a number six starter at best. He could have upside, because he was better in the minors, so maybe we see more of that, and why I ranked him here, even though his projections would fit better in the anchor glass tier or even a below tier as his xFIP and other peripherals seem to suggest. Sign me up for the grounds crew, because I’m doing some serious hedges here. 2026 Projections: 9-9/3.86/1.12/131 in 151 IP
“It’s 10pm. Do you know where your kids are?” Nope. But I’ve got something to read.