I’ll be honest: a lot of the job of a fantasy sports writer is constrained by search engine optimization and giving audiences what they expect. This article, for example, is ostensibly about starting pitchers. But what *is* a starter, anyway? So many teams are using openers now. So many teams are letting pitchers go 4.2 IP, or piggybacking, or bullpen games, or long reliever, or, or, or. And tee-bee-ache (pronounce that last word softly, like you’re staring longingly into its eyes waiting for the next clause), starters don’t require a mass of innings pitched to be effective for fantasy baseball. In 2021, Corbin Burnes finished SP5 with 167IP, Carlos Rodon SP10 with 132IP, Jacob deGrom SP13 with 92IP (!), Freddy Peralta SP14 with 144IP, and so on. Unless you’re in one of those quality starts leagues — which I established in the pre-season were just different ways of slandering a Win — you could really roll with any number of “pitchers,” broadly speaking, and do fine.
Let’s re-think what “starters” are. Basically, starters are the IP ballast that gets you that elusive “Win” category, right? The yin to the yang of the efficient, save-craving closer. Last year, Chad Green, Paul Sewald, Ranger Suarez, Andrew Kittredge, Jonathan Loaisiga, Tyler Rogers, Blake Treinen, Drew Steckenrider, Garrett Whitlock, Kendall Graveman, Colin McHugh, and Devin Williams were all Top 100 pitchers despite spending the year neither as a primary closer or primary starter. In other words, 1/9th of the Top 100 pitchers didn’t have an established role on their team. Paul Sewald and Chad Green had more wins than Brandon Woodruff, Sandy Alcantara, Shohei Ohtani, Trevor Rogers, Alek Manoah, and Yu Darvish. You get the idea.
I mean, you probably wouldn’t have won your league with the “roleless” rotation [points above], but Ranger Suarez finished as P33, Paul Sewald as P47, and Chad Green as P49. They all finished ahead of Yu Darvish, Trevor Rogers, Shane McClanahan, John Means, Shane Bieber, Jack Flaherty, and German Marquez. Y’all know how many touts ran through the streets celebrating their drafts with Bieber/Flaherty/Darvish/Means and then danced on the edge of a volcano when they picked up Rogers and McClanahan? When it was all said and done, they coulda just picked up Chad Green off the waivers and had a better outcome than any of those guys. [teeth sucking noise]
The above observation got me thinking (or, for those using screen readers, the hypothetical rotation I mentioned an eon ago while dinosaurs still trotted the globe): while we’re setting up the confidence ranking for 2022, let’s expand our horizons. I’ve never given you just 100 starting pitchers; usually, I post like 150. And honestly, I’ve never given you just starters — that’s how a bunch of you ended up with Freddy Peralta on your teams last year (and that former no-role guy finished as SP14!).
For 2022, I’m expanding the horizons a bit: you’re getting my confidence ranking on the top pitchers for your fantasy team. So: starters, openers, and those nebulous middle relief semi-bullpen guys like Chad Green, Michael King, Josh Fleming, Taylor Hearn, etc. Truth is, sometimes a fantasy pitcher gets injured, and the best solution is to replace the player with a non-starter. No, not that kind of non-starter. A Roleless Rob, so to speak.
Let’s break down some performances from the past week, and get on to the rankings!
Kyle Wright:Â Well, my system seems to love him, and don’t we all? Wright dominates batters, like Voldemort except with baseballs. He’s striking out 3 batters for every 2 innings, which means he’s leaving only 3 outs for his fielders to manage. Come on, Kyle, share the love! He’s rostered just about everywhere now, so…let’s move on!
Michael King: Here’s a weird one. King has been an occasional spot-starter slash non-important game closer for the Yankees for a few years. That’s the kind of position that Freddy Peralta was in for the Brewers! This year, King has already racked up 10 IP — more than a number of full time starters — and he has an unreasonable 15 K/9 streak going. I almost wrote “steak” because my mouth started watering. He’s picked up a Save and a Win already, and he’s pitched in nearly 40% of the Yankees’ games so far. Could that lead to tiredness? Sure, whatever. What am I? Armstradamus? At this point, King is pitching like an elite starter and making a case for a more important role on the team…or possibly another team at the deadline. Put in perspective, King has enough IP to be SP2 on the Tigers this year. On the OVERALL Player Rater, King’s in the Top 100. I’m not saying to over-react, but…15 K/9 with starting experience in the Bronx will play.
Paul Blackburn:Â The Athletics are a mess and a major metropolis have abandoned their team. OK, that’s awful for real baseball, but for us fantasy mavens, we’re wondering if we can sign up some heroes to our squad. Blackburn is a journeyman without a great pedigree, but he’s crossing the threshold where his K/9 is acceptable and his ability to limit damage tolerable. How’s about that for a tout! But those kinds of arms can be the quiet league winners — Blackburn will be asked to eat some innings and that could lead to a slight Win advantage, and his ability to limit walks will play. I hesitantly recommend Blackburn in many formats, with the knowledge that he could transform into a turnip at any moment.
Jose Berrios:Â In my internal Google Sheet, I created an automatic “This Guy is Crappy” tab. It spit out Jose Berrios. I thought, “Maybe my filters are too restrictive and I need more coffee.” So I adjusted, like all good engineers do. Still, the automatic crap-o-nator spit out Jose Berrios. This isn’t an arms race, but there’s some worry about Berrios. K/9 at a career low, with a BB/9 above 4. Did the spirit of 2020 Robbie Ray stay in Toronto? And at the time of writing, his FIP is…6.66. Spooky! Berrios is only 28 and has been a stalwart for fantasy managers for years, so fingers crossed he figures out his problem. For now, bench Berrios until warmer weather or the Pirates roll into town.
Andrew Heaney: Tried telling you he wasn’t all bad. There’s a reason the Dodgers targeted him as one of their top off-season acquisitions (take that Freddie Freeman!) and gave him a prove-it contract after the Angels and Yankees ruined his confidence last year. Heaney just hit the IL with shoulder discomfort due to the shortened spring training and news reports indicate nobody in the organization is worried about significant time missed. Heaney is still available in like 10% of leagues and most people consider him a “sell-high!” candidate. Lucky for you, 420 Day is gone and you don’t need to be high to justify buying Heaney! Don’t sell the farm to get AH, but, consider trading one of those Owen Miller-types that is playing out of their mind this spring (don’t you dare trade Seiya though!).
Keegan Thompson:Â He’s got more IP than Freddy Peralta, Andrew Heney, and Clayton Kershaw. He’s snared two wins out of four games, which is why he’s a bit over-valued right now. That said, this is how Freddy Peralta got started in 2020 and 2021, and Thompson is available everywhere in all formats and is worth a speculative add in best ball at 16+ team leagues.
Garrett Whitlock: A win, a save, and 5 appearances. Old-school Razzball hates that kind of pitcher. But new-school Razzball loves that 11+ K/9. As we’ve learned, you want to chase K/9 because that will play. Whitlock appeared in Tier 1 after I refreshed the data on Sunday morning, which is great news for everybody who speculatively added him. If he’s still out there in any of your leagues, snag him ASAP.
Gerrit Cole:Â Wow, he’s way down there on the list, ain’t he? He’s currently SP152 on the Razzball Player rater, which definitely is not the return on investment anybody was expecting. Well, maybe just people who don’t read my columns because I’ve always asked y’all to fade Cole. He’ll redeem himself soon enough but in the meantime, every Cole blown start gives a guy like Michael King a chance to make a case for solid role in the rotation.
Josh Fleming: Told y’all it’s early in the season. Fleming racked up 100+ IP last year, and already has 2 wins on 10IP this year. Big difference? He’s K-ing 11+ per 9 this year, which is over twice as many punchouts as last year. So, you want big and bold statements? How about my system outputting Josh Fleming in the top 20 pitchers? His ERA is over 4.00 but his FIP is 3 points less and his BABIP is nearing .500. That means: regression incoming!
The Confidence Men
Awright, here’s the list. It’s a new list. Never seen a better list. Truth. I re-invented my listicle style this year to take advantage of the fluid P/SP roles that so many teams utilize. I rank according to Confidence, which means: On a per inning basis, how confident am I that I should play this pitcher? An ideal confidence score is something like 4.2. What am I, a math major? You’ll notice that even the top tier of players max out in the high 3-point range (wish pitchers could shoot the three).
K/9 gets the highest weight in my system, followed by a number of other important factors, like how the pitcher looks in tight pants. This year, I’ve managed to correct last year’s biggest weakness: injuries. I’ve tied my ranks into Rudy’s Rest of Season projections that automatically calculate remaining games. Now, you’ll still need to use your human brain a bit because sometimes MLB teams don’t update their injury lists immediately (remember the pre-season when we’re all waiting for injured players to be officially listed?). Players like John Means are controlled by Rudy’s algorithm, which still has him down for 25 games remaining because his data source has Means on the 10-day IL. Also, Means is visiting Dr. Freeze if you didn’t hear, so we won’t see him until late 2023. Definitely not making that 25-game projection for 2022.
So, always do a sanity check. I’m providing free data that quite literally has a better or higher correlation to fantasy efficacy than many sites that charge an arm and a leg and don’t answer your questions. The source of this data is none other than Razzball itself. So, if you are winning money or having a great time reading the articles, please consider a subscription to the site or drop me a line in the comments and let me know I’m not wasting my life away for naught.
Here’s how to use the list:
- Tier: 1=best, 2=everybody else for 12 team consideration, 3=deep league/dynasty/best ball/tournaments/DFS, 4= you do you.
- Name:Â Player name
- Confidence:Â The overall score my system outputs. The higher the score, the more confident I am in using the player. As always, we’re in small sample size territory, so this ranking will get better as the season goes on.
- Own%:Â This is the rostership % of the player in Razzball Commenter Leagues, run on Fantrax. This may vary depending on site and format for readers.
- L30$/G:Â This is how valuable the player has been over the past month. Players with high confidence who have low or negative $/G are “buy low” candidates. Shohei Ohtani has been blistering with his true skill stats, but his roto stats (like a 4.40 ERA) aren’t valuable. This indicates we should expect Ohtani to be much more valuable soon. Spot starters/Roleless Robs will have a lower $/G because they play in more games. Michael King, for example, has pitched in twice as many games as the other top P.
Tier | Name | Confidence | Own% | L30$/G |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kyle Wright | 3.649 | 100 | 48.4 |
1 | Carlos Rodon | 3.642 | 100 | 49.2 |
1 | Nestor Cortes | 3.612 | 100 | 28 |
1 | Clayton Kershaw | 3.541 | 100 | 59.5 |
1 | Shohei Ohtani | 3.367 | 100 | -2.5 |
1 | Andrew Heaney | 3.356 | 91 | 49.3 |
1 | Garrett Whitlock | 3.277 | 100 | 15.5 |
1 | Michael King | 3.211 | 6.9 | |
1 | Shane McClanahan | 3.099 | 100 | 1.5 |
1 | Kevin Gausman | 2.887 | 100 | 1.4 |
2 | Josh Fleming | 2.722 | 5 | -19 |
2 | Max Fried | 2.678 | 100 | -4.8 |
2 | Tarik Skubal | 2.663 | 100 | 3.1 |
2 | Shane Bieber | 2.636 | 100 | 13.6 |
2 | Paul Blackburn | 2.613 | 55 | 26.5 |
2 | Max Scherzer | 2.600 | 100 | 39.2 |
2 | Joe Musgrove | 2.589 | 100 | 38 |
2 | Frankie Montas | 2.562 | 100 | 14.1 |
2 | Kyle Gibson | 2.552 | 68 | -2.6 |
2 | Pablo Lopez | 2.536 | 100 | 43.2 |
2 | Freddy Peralta | 2.513 | 100 | -54.9 |
2 | Tyler Mahle | 2.459 | 100 | -41.3 |
2 | Carlos Carrasco | 2.457 | 100 | 20.9 |
2 | Wil Crowe | 2.455 | 39 | 10.5 |
2 | Merrill Kelly | 2.452 | 86 | 13.2 |
2 | Steven Matz | 2.447 | 75 | -23.3 |
2 | Dylan Cease | 2.407 | 100 | 1.3 |
2 | Chris Bassitt | 2.403 | 100 | 17.2 |
2 | Tylor Megill | 2.394 | 100 | 18.8 |
2 | Sean Manaea | 2.391 | 100 | 37.9 |
2 | Keegan Thompson | 2.376 | 2 | 19.9 |
2 | Dylan Bundy | 2.373 | 75 | 48 |
2 | Victor Arano | 2.350 | 2 | -4 |
2 | Michael Kopech | 2.344 | 100 | 12.6 |
2 | Ryan Helsley | 2.322 | 9 | 1.7 |
2 | Rafael Montero | 2.310 | 3.1 | |
2 | Corbin Burnes | 2.299 | 100 | 20.4 |
2 | Steven Wilson | 2.299 | 3.8 | |
2 | Zach Eflin | 2.290 | 9 | -47.1 |
2 | Miles Mikolas | 2.287 | 61 | 3.4 |
2 | Brandon Woodruff | 2.276 | 100 | -3.5 |
2 | Jesus Luzardo | 2.248 | 100 | -30.3 |
2 | Alex Cobb | 2.244 | 100 | -14.2 |
2 | Logan Gilbert | 2.244 | 100 | 38.5 |
2 | Adam Wainwright | 2.233 | 100 | 0.9 |
2 | Nathan Eovaldi | 2.202 | 100 | -11.8 |
2 | Logan Webb | 2.195 | 100 | -4.7 |
2 | Taylor Hearn | 2.192 | -73.5 | |
2 | Justin Wilson | 2.182 | -4.4 | |
2 | Kyle Hendricks | 2.176 | 91 | -28.5 |
2 | Jalen Beeks | 2.172 | 18 | 8.8 |
2 | Chasen Shreve | 2.171 | -0.7 | |
2 | Scott Effross | 2.171 | -6 | |
2 | A.J. Minter | 2.171 | -3.3 | |
2 | Brad Keller | 2.165 | 32 | -5.9 |
2 | Bruce Zimmermann | 2.162 | 8.8 | |
2 | Kenley Jansen | 2.160 | 100 | -1.5 |
2 | J.P. Feyereisen | 2.158 | 2 | 0.8 |
2 | Sam Hentges | 2.156 | -3.9 | |
2 | Taijuan Walker | 2.152 | 7 | 15.9 |
2 | Justin Verlander | 2.143 | 100 | 25.1 |
2 | Martin Perez | 2.129 | -35 | |
2 | Brooks Raley | 2.128 | 9 | -4.1 |
2 | Jordan Montgomery | 2.118 | 100 | -16.3 |
2 | Austin Gomber | 2.098 | 5 | -29.5 |
2 | Seranthony Dominguez | 2.091 | 2 | -3.1 |
2 | Daniel Hudson | 2.086 | 16 | 3.4 |
2 | Josh Hader | 2.082 | 100 | 6.5 |
2 | Cristian Javier | 2.072 | 86 | 6.3 |
2 | Collin McHugh | 2.067 | 14 | -11.9 |
2 | Corbin Martin | 2.055 | -3.7 | |
2 | Michael Fulmer | 2.051 | 52 | 3.9 |
2 | Keegan Akin | 2.049 | -2.2 | |
2 | Mitch Keller | 2.039 | 5 | -58.1 |
2 | Alek Manoah | 2.033 | 100 | 33.4 |
2 | Alex Wood | 2.023 | 100 | 7.5 |
2 | Enyel De Los Santos | 2.020 | 0 | |
2 | Luis Severino | 2.018 | 100 | -8.1 |
2 | Triston McKenzie | 2.016 | 100 | -14.9 |
2 | Trevor Gott | 2.014 | -2 | |
2 | Josiah Gray | 2.005 | 98 | -0.2 |
2 | Bailey Ober | 2.003 | 86 | -2.3 |
3 | Tyler Anderson | 1.995 | 30 | 3.3 |
3 | Chad Kuhl | 1.992 | 9 | 23.3 |
3 | Erick Fedde | 1.992 | -52.2 | |
3 | JT Chargois | 1.990 | 0.4 | |
3 | Andrew Kittredge | 1.988 | 100 | 4.7 |
3 | Trevor Rogers | 1.986 | 100 | -65.3 |
3 | Jorge Lopez | 1.982 | 98 | 1.2 |
3 | Sergio Romo | 1.979 | -0.9 | |
3 | Phillips Valdez | 1.977 | 1.4 | |
3 | Tanner Houck | 1.976 | 100 | -17 |
3 | Bryan Baker | 1.975 | 2 | -4.8 |
3 | Adrian Houser | 1.974 | 2 | -24.1 |
3 | Tim Mayza | 1.971 | -1.6 | |
3 | Andres Munoz | 1.971 | 45 | -0.9 |
3 | Joe Ryan | 1.967 | 100 | 27.1 |
3 | Sandy Alcantara | 1.959 | 100 | 2.7 |
3 | Reid Detmers | 1.956 | 48 | -49.9 |
3 | Pierce Johnson | 1.955 | 16 | -9.5 |
3 | David Bednar | 1.949 | 100 | -0.1 |
3 | Anthony DeSclafani | 1.944 | 86 | -65.5 |
3 | Sean Doolittle | 1.944 | -1.4 | |
3 | Patrick Corbin | 1.943 | 18 | -103.5 |
3 | Sam Selman | 1.937 | 10.9 | |
3 | Andrew Bellatti | 1.922 | -2.9 | |
3 | Diego Castillo | 1.916 | 80 | -5.5 |
3 | Jake Cousins | 1.914 | -3.4 | |
3 | Tanner Scott | 1.912 | 2 | -2 |
3 | Dillon Tate | 1.908 | -6 | |
3 | Yu Darvish | 1.908 | 100 | -19.7 |
3 | Zack Wheeler | 1.905 | 100 | -74.3 |
3 | Zac Gallen | 1.902 | 100 | 12 |
3 | David Peterson | 1.902 | 5 | -0.6 |
3 | Dylan Coleman | 1.900 | -3 | |
3 | Scott Barlow | 1.898 | 100 | 0.6 |
3 | Dinelson Lamet | 1.897 | 9 | -4.9 |
3 | Jhoulys Chacin | 1.894 | -4.9 | |
3 | Felix Bautista | 1.894 | -5.5 | |
3 | Jose Alvarado | 1.893 | -7.8 | |
3 | Josh Staumont | 1.892 | 95 | -4.8 |
3 | Framber Valdez | 1.891 | 100 | -35.8 |
3 | Jordan Romano | 1.890 | 100 | 3 |
3 | Dany Jimenez | 1.889 | 3.6 | |
3 | Brock Burke | 1.887 | 2 | 4.4 |
3 | Hunter Greene | 1.887 | 93 | -28.5 |
3 | Erik Swanson | 1.882 | 1 | |
3 | Kendall Graveman | 1.882 | 5 | -7.5 |
3 | Gabe Speier | 1.880 | 0.7 | |
3 | Trevor Stephan | 1.872 | 2 | 0.7 |
3 | Lucas Luetge | 1.866 | -3.2 | |
3 | Luis Garcia | 1.864 | 100 | 7.6 |
3 | Luis Garcia | 1.864 | 100 | 7.6 |
3 | Marcus Stroman | 1.861 | 84 | -78.5 |
3 | Evan Phillips | 1.860 | 3.3 | |
3 | Chris Flexen | 1.856 | 27 | -20 |
3 | Noah Syndergaard | 1.855 | 100 | 20.5 |
3 | Ross Stripling | 1.854 | -32.3 | |
3 | Tyler Kinley | 1.853 | -4.4 | |
3 | Jeffrey Springs | 1.853 | 0.6 | |
3 | Duane Underwood Jr. | 1.850 | -20.8 | |
3 | Jameson Taillon | 1.848 | 82 | -17.7 |
3 | Aaron Nola | 1.848 | 100 | -24 |
3 | MacKenzie Gore | 1.845 | 100 | 10.2 |
3 | Craig Kimbrel | 1.841 | 100 | 2.5 |
3 | Clay Holmes | 1.841 | 9 | -1 |
3 | Aaron Bummer | 1.821 | 2 | -10.3 |
3 | Tyler Rogers | 1.820 | -6 | |
3 | JT Brubaker | 1.813 | 2 | -64.3 |
3 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 1.811 | 100 | -44.6 |
3 | Glenn Otto | 1.799 | 47 | |
3 | Steven Okert | 1.791 | 2.8 | |
3 | Jhoan Duran | 1.788 | 66 | -7.6 |
3 | Jimmy Herget | 1.787 | -12 | |
3 | Chris Paddack | 1.785 | 2 | -39.4 |
3 | Dane Dunning | 1.782 | -59.6 | |
3 | Matt Strahm | 1.775 | -1.3 | |
3 | Eric Lauer | 1.771 | 39 | -3.8 |
3 | Chris Stratton | 1.768 | 52 | -5.5 |
3 | Justin Grimm | 1.767 | -11.6 | |
3 | Justin Steele | 1.766 | 7 | -30.9 |
3 | Joe Jimenez | 1.762 | -3.8 | |
3 | Cody Stashak | 1.761 | -7.5 | |
3 | Kyle Freeland | 1.759 | -81.2 | |
3 | Jordan Lyles | 1.758 | -32.1 | |
3 | Julian Merryweather | 1.757 | -8.7 | |
3 | Kyle Finnegan | 1.752 | 7 | -3.7 |
3 | Charlie Morton | 1.749 | 100 | -49.1 |
3 | Roansy Contreras | 1.745 | 7 | -2.3 |
3 | Hector Neris | 1.742 | 86 | -2.1 |
3 | Julio Urias | 1.734 | 100 | -12.2 |
3 | Lucas Giolito | 1.732 | 100 | 19 |
3 | Eli Morgan | 1.728 | -13.3 | |
3 | Alex Lange | 1.727 | -7.6 | |
3 | Jose Ruiz | 1.725 | -4.8 | |
3 | Tyler Danish | 1.722 | 1.8 | |
3 | Reiver Sanmartin | 1.721 | -65.3 | |
3 | Anderson Severino | 1.718 | -15.5 | |
3 | John Means | 1.716 | 52 | -26.9 |
3 | Zack Greinke | 1.714 | 43 | -28.9 |
3 | Kyle Nelson | 1.709 | -2 | |
3 | Spencer Strider | 1.708 | -10.5 | |
3 | Daulton Jefferies | 1.708 | 7 | 6.4 |
3 | Aroldis Chapman | 1.707 | 100 | -0.4 |
3 | Tyler Alexander | 1.704 | -32.6 | |
3 | Zach Plesac | 1.704 | 59 | 3.3 |
3 | Drew Smyly | 1.696 | 2 | -3 |
3 | Corey Kluber | 1.691 | 48 | -41.4 |
3 | Drew Rasmussen | 1.687 | 61 | -40.7 |
3 | Garrett Cleavinger | 1.683 | -20.9 | |
3 | German Marquez | 1.683 | 86 | -43.5 |
3 | Aaron Ashby | 1.681 | 57 | -35.6 |
3 | Cionel Perez | 1.680 | -4.3 | |
3 | Andres Machado | 1.678 | -7.8 | |
3 | Drew Smith | 1.674 | -3.7 | |
3 | Walker Buehler | 1.673 | 100 | -31.3 |
3 | Joely Rodriguez | 1.670 | -10.1 | |
3 | Jhon Romero | 1.666 | -9 | |
3 | David Phelps | 1.665 | -3.9 | |
3 | Michael Wacha | 1.660 | 7 | 6.5 |
3 | Jordan Hicks | 1.659 | 25 | 5.5 |
3 | Justin Bruihl | 1.654 | -2.7 | |
3 | Antonio Senzatela | 1.652 | 2 | -60.6 |
3 | Vince Velasquez | 1.652 | -64.7 | |
3 | Daniel Bard | 1.650 | 100 | 2.5 |
3 | Tyler Matzek | 1.646 | -3.9 | |
3 | Taylor Rogers | 1.645 | 100 | 5.3 |
3 | Alexander Wells | 1.642 | -2.8 | |
3 | Liam Hendriks | 1.641 | 100 | -6 |
3 | Colin Poche | 1.636 | 0.4 | |
3 | Cal Quantrill | 1.630 | 59 | -26.7 |
3 | Austin Davis | 1.625 | -8.5 | |
3 | Gerrit Cole | 1.620 | 100 | -49.3 |
3 | Mitch White | 1.617 | -9.3 | |
3 | Robert Suarez | 1.616 | 7 | -4.1 |
3 | Konnor Pilkington | 1.613 | 1.2 | |
3 | Joey Krehbiel | 1.612 | -0.3 | |
3 | Jackson Kowar | 1.595 | -179.1 | |
3 | Kutter Crawford | 1.593 | -16.9 | |
3 | Mike Baumann | 1.592 | -6.4 | |
3 | Daniel Norris | 1.592 | -8.7 | |
3 | Tony Gonsolin | 1.590 | 100 | 0.3 |
3 | A.J. Puk | 1.588 | -6.8 | |
3 | Joan Adon | 1.586 | -52.3 | |
3 | Corey Knebel | 1.582 | 100 | 1.3 |
3 | Aaron Loup | 1.581 | 2 | -0.4 |
3 | Zach Davies | 1.579 | -33.9 | |
3 | Seth Lugo | 1.578 | -9.9 | |
3 | Tanner Banks | 1.576 | 1.5 | |
3 | Devin Williams | 1.572 | 45 | -13.9 |
3 | Jose Urquidy | 1.569 | -37.9 | |
3 | Dusten Knight | 1.569 | -14.8 | |
3 | Casey Mize | 1.568 | 55 | -60.6 |
3 | Ranger Suarez | 1.563 | 100 | -42.6 |
3 | Jason Adam | 1.562 | -3.2 | |
3 | Parker Mushinski | 1.554 | -12.8 | |
3 | Robbie Ray | 1.549 | 100 | -17.3 |
3 | Patrick Sandoval | 1.548 | 100 | -6.4 |
3 | Austin Voth | 1.543 | -14.9 | |
3 | Jakob Junis | 1.541 | 57.8 | |
3 | Rowan Wick | 1.540 | 11 | -3.9 |
3 | Blake Treinen | 1.539 | 30 | 4.2 |
3 | Paul Sewald | 1.536 | 68 | -0.1 |
3 | Chris Martin | 1.533 | -8.1 | |
3 | Jeff Hoffman | 1.531 | -8.2 | |
3 | Matt Foster | 1.530 | -4.4 | |
3 | Will Vest | 1.526 | -4.8 | |
3 | Hansel Robles | 1.525 | 36 | 3.7 |
3 | Dakota Hudson | 1.520 | -17.7 | |
3 | Jeurys Familia | 1.519 | -11.2 | |
3 | Zach Thompson | 1.518 | -106.8 | |
3 | Paolo Espino | 1.514 | -28.9 | |
3 | Michael Lorenzen | 1.511 | 18 | -6.8 |
3 | Jake Brentz | 1.511 | -15.5 | |
3 | Nick Pivetta | 1.511 | 9 | -95.4 |
3 | Mychal Givens | 1.509 | 57 | -4.2 |
3 | Anthony Gose | 1.504 | 0.4 | |
3 | Matt Brash | 1.501 | 93 | -4.2 |
4 | Jose Quintana | 1.499 | -44.6 | |
4 | Justin Lawrence | 1.493 | -1.4 | |
4 | David Robertson | 1.491 | 100 | 2.6 |
4 | Nabil Crismatt | 1.490 | -4.4 | |
4 | Jose Quijada | 1.482 | -7.8 | |
4 | Ryan Borucki | 1.482 | -7.8 | |
4 | Steve Cishek | 1.482 | -11 | |
4 | Tyler Thornburg | 1.479 | -8.3 | |
4 | Elieser Hernandez | 1.473 | 36 | -40 |
4 | Cole Irvin | 1.472 | 7 | -28.1 |
4 | Hunter Harvey | 1.472 | -3.9 | |
4 | Giovanny Gallegos | 1.470 | 100 | -0.5 |
4 | Darren O’Day | 1.465 | 1.5 | |
4 | Jon Gray | 1.462 | 70 | -44.3 |
4 | Cody Poteet | 1.457 | -2.8 | |
4 | Anthony Kay | 1.455 | -29.1 | |
4 | Edwin Diaz | 1.451 | 100 | -1.9 |
4 | Matt Koch | 1.447 | -4 | |
4 | Adam Cimber | 1.446 | 2 | 5.3 |
4 | Erasmo Ramirez | 1.441 | 1.7 | |
4 | Brad Hand | 1.435 | 16 | 0.4 |
4 | Zach Jackson | 1.435 | -10.8 | |
4 | Ian Anderson | 1.429 | 100 | -39.6 |
4 | Daniel Lynch | 1.425 | 2 | -34.8 |
4 | Matt Bush | 1.424 | 9 | -5.6 |
4 | Adam Oller | 1.420 | -97 | |
4 | Ryan Tepera | 1.419 | -4 | |
4 | Sean Reid-Foley | 1.419 | -11.3 | |
4 | Sammy Long | 1.418 | -9.1 | |
4 | Sam Moll | 1.417 | -4.3 | |
4 | Cristopher Sanchez | 1.413 | -13.5 | |
4 | Andre Pallante | 1.410 | -5.8 | |
4 | Marco Gonzales | 1.408 | 36 | -19.2 |
4 | Matt Wisler | 1.404 | -3.5 | |
4 | Drew Hutchison | 1.404 | -23.1 | |
4 | Ron Marinaccio | 1.401 | -0.9 | |
4 | Jose Berrios | 1.399 | 100 | -57.3 |
4 | Vladimir Gutierrez | 1.395 | -59.8 | |
4 | Dillon Peters | 1.395 | 16.8 | |
4 | Adam Ottavino | 1.392 | -4 | |
4 | Aaron Civale | 1.390 | 64 | -54.3 |
4 | Tyler Gilbert | 1.384 | 7.5 | |
4 | Emilio Pagan | 1.381 | 86 | -3 |
4 | Josh Rogers | 1.376 | -38.2 | |
4 | Dauri Moreta | 1.368 | -6.1 | |
4 | Raisel Iglesias | 1.366 | 100 | 3.8 |
4 | Alex Vesia | 1.363 | -5.7 | |
4 | Chris Archer | 1.359 | 7 | -14 |
4 | John King | 1.359 | -6.4 | |
4 | Yimi Garcia | 1.356 | -2.7 | |
4 | Joe Smith | 1.355 | -4.7 | |
4 | Hoby Milner | 1.354 | -0.4 | |
4 | Kenny Rosenberg | 1.353 | -45.7 | |
4 | Trent Thornton | 1.352 | -2.2 | |
4 | Rony Garcia | 1.348 | -5.5 | |
4 | John Brebbia | 1.348 | -5.3 | |
4 | Phoenix Sanders | 1.348 | 0.8 | |
4 | Collin Snider | 1.340 | 2.5 | |
4 | Joel Payamps | 1.337 | -9.7 | |
4 | Alexis Diaz | 1.333 | -4.8 | |
4 | Luis Patino | 1.325 | 25 | -34.3 |
4 | Anthony Bass | 1.324 | -5.6 | |
4 | Anthony Misiewicz | 1.317 | -8.6 | |
4 | Art Warren | 1.316 | 36 | -11.1 |
4 | Tony Santillan | 1.315 | -9.8 | |
4 | Nick Lodolo | 1.315 | 48 | -80 |
4 | Ty Blach | 1.299 | -11.9 | |
4 | Anthony Banda | 1.295 | -6 | |
4 | Noe Ramirez | 1.290 | -7.9 | |
4 | Richard Bleier | 1.282 | -7 | |
4 | Brad Boxberger | 1.278 | 0.4 | |
4 | Domingo Acevedo | 1.277 | 2 | -10.1 |
4 | Jake Woodford | 1.277 | 3.1 | |
4 | Matt Festa | 1.276 | -8.2 | |
4 | Griffin Jax | 1.275 | -9.9 | |
4 | Huascar Ynoa | 1.270 | 32 | -111.9 |
4 | Matt Manning | 1.265 | 2 | -8.6 |
4 | Jacob Barnes | 1.264 | 1.5 | |
4 | Madison Bumgarner | 1.261 | 14 | -17.8 |
4 | Bryse Wilson | 1.250 | -66.5 | |
4 | Albert Abreu | 1.250 | -2.2 | |
4 | Jimmy Lambert | 1.238 | -17 | |
4 | Caleb Thielbar | 1.237 | -18.6 | |
4 | Amir Garrett | 1.235 | 5.6 | |
4 | Camilo Doval | 1.231 | 100 | -6.4 |
4 | Matt Barnes | 1.231 | 82 | -9.4 |
4 | Trevor Richards | 1.229 | -2.4 | |
4 | Ashton Goudeau | 1.227 | 1.4 |
Blair! Talk to me about Paddack vs Blackburn. Your “confidence scale” has Blackburn above Scherzer……Blackburn’s ratios have never been good and he is 28. Paddack is 26 and looking like 2019. I saw “The Sheriff” post but didn’t go into detail.
Tomorrow’s update has them right next to each other, so go ahead and coin toss. Blackburn is playing above his pay grade, and Paddack’s true skill stats are looking nice but the baseball card stats look awful. So, Paddack = buy low, Blackburn = gamble. Good luck!
I apologize for coming to you before the update lol. Some things, I specifically will seek you out lol. Thank you for your insight!
Hey Blair, thanks for writing. I’m am glad to see McClanahan getting stretched out. He looks great so far.
Could you pick the top two out of Sandoval, Luzardo, R. Suarez, or C. Javier?
I had Sandoval, then dropped him for Javier… then Sandoval went off last night. Having regrets.
Luzardo and Sandoval. Variance issues like last night will happen — it’s the nature of the game. Good luck!
EWB! I look forward to these every week, especially because my pitching still hasn’t really found its footing. I’d love to get your take on a conventional 5×5 roto league where I’m holding Sims, Rainey, Diego Castillo, Loaisiga and Devin Williams as my RPs, with the idea being sacrificing Saves a bit in exchange for the K/ratio bump that Castillo, Williams, and Loaisiga have demonstrated in the past. Devin has been okay, but Loaisiga is killing me. Am I cool with dropping him (or anyone else) for any of the following:
Duran, Arano, Montero, Strider, Neris, Green, Loup
I’m getting buried in saves (predictably) and Ks and would love the keep the hole that I’m at a manageable size. Am I letting small samples lead me astray or is a shakeup in order? Appreciate the guidance and your hard work here.
Keegan Thompson is also available fwiw
I just discovered Keegan! He’s perfect for me! I’m in a start-limited league and wanted a FA who can (1) get K; and (2) not kill ratios. Not seeking W or Sv (anything he gets will be extra credit).
And if you (and especially Blair) somehow find others like this, I hope you use this site as a forum.
I think the Airbender gets a bit more chance than others, but on the whole, you can rotate a lot of the Roleless Robs while they’re hot and move on when they’re cold. Looking through the previous years, there’s about 10 middling relievers per year who are successful over the long term, and K/9 is the quickest factor in fixing success. So, I’d keep those hot K/9 guys and move on from anybody who isn’t getting IP or who we see changes in K/9. Truth is, the true successful Roleless Robs probably aren’t on the radar yet — like Sewald, Ranger, and Green last year, who all really took off in the second half. So for the first half, keep your eyes open!
After reading Coolwhips recent post on Trevor Rogers I’m thinking of offering him out. My staff is currently
F. Peralta, Nola, cease, mclanahan, bassit, framber, joe Ryan, T. rogers, and Montgomery
Do you think I should worry about Rogers? Is there another guy you think I’d be better of trading?
Whip and I talk a ton in the background so I’m very familiar with the source of that worry lol.
Rogers isn’t anything terribly special so I’m fine moving him. I mean, think about if he’s healthy and pitches every single start like Sandy Alcantara does — Sandy had as many wins in 3 years as Julio Urias had in 1 year. There’s just not a ton of upside on the Marlins.
Hope that helps!
Scott Effross? Scott Effross? Entertaining? Sure. Rosterable?`please tell me how.
Welcome to small sample size kingdom!
hey Blair I love the way you look at Pitching or maybe that is confirmation bias since I grabbed King yesterday and reas this list today haha. I went back also and read ur blurb on quality starts also because my league changed to them this year. In a weekly 5×5 h2h is there an optimal # of SP to RP to use with 8 pitching spots? We use quality start and net svs and holds. My pitchers are. Cease, Eovaldi, Edrod, Severino, Syndergaard, Ranger, Brash, Gore, Megill, Luzardo, Kopech, King, Duran and an IR of Heaney Sewald and Snell. I stockpiled mid range SP looking for some breakouts, but Im not sure if I should be more focused on RPs like you have listed. My brain gets lost in strategy thought and I dont know the optimal play.
Yeah, it’s all a delicate balancing act. It depends if there’s a IP limit in the league, like an RCL. If there’s an IP limit, you want a ton of relievers and just a few elite starters. If there’s no IP limit, it’s generally best to march out a fair number of SP (5-6) and then the rest are relievers. As is traditional Razzball philosophy, you shouldn’t keep many (if any) hitters on the bench — you should keep the SP bench deep. But, that’s an ideal strategy — overall, have fun, play in a way that doesn’t break your brain, and enjoy the ride!
20 IP limit on the week I’m not sure if that changes anything. Oh I don’t break my brain because when I get to a giant question mark I go to the coin! The flip has made a lot of decisions in my life such as booking a last minute sky dive in Cuba after finding out that it was a thing on a trip there. Thank you for the words of wisdom I will leave you with one of my life moto’s stolen from an old Canadian fitness PSA show -“Keep fit and have fun”. So keep fit and have fun EWB!
Ah damn now I gotta go do my cardio cuz I ate three cookies. Had my fun before I got fit!
Really appreciate your thoroughness and information. Is Whitlock a must own over the likes or Skubal, Sandoval, Gore and Houck? As for Giants closers, who would you prefer out of Doval and McGee? Thanks!
I took McGee and I think he gets a fair shake at the closer spot. All of those pitchers have been great for short periods, but I can see more of a case for the first four over Houck because of the Toronto/vax status issue. At this very point, I’m happy starting any of the first 4, but would lean Whit/Skubal and then Gore in the second tier.
Blair.
I’ve been studying your results (Favorably!) and await next week’s results — seeing how they’re affected by more data and your envisioned in-process “tweaks”.
One MAJOR hoped-for change. It needs to have an (either estimated or real) innings bias. As I opined earlier, my rosters utilize “pseudo” starters for padding ratios and K’s, but these are only meaningful for guys that can provide a significant impact. Yarborough (2019) and 2022 Whitlock are the prototypical guys I look for.
I’ve got an IP cutline that weighs the performance of the higher IP-gainers embedded in the calculations, which is why you can see all the closers are at the bottom and the Roleless Robs way above them. Additionally, I’ve got a secondary “Games” cutline based on Rudy’s projections, which should eliminate noise from guys who come in and pitch one complete game spot start — basically, Rudy and his advanced algorithm has to “buy-in” on the player’s role (and Rudy was the top playing time projectionist in the industry last year) for players to elevate on my rankings. Hope this helps!
One off-topic question (last one for this week). I am a Deluxe subscriber (not Premium). Is Rudy’s raw data accessible by me (and if so, how?).
For “raw” data, that’s the MLB data feed that’s available up on the nav bar for stats/projections.
For Rudy’s raw projections — like, the equations he does to render that raw data into a projection for the day/week/month/season — that’s his closely guarded intellectual property.
The Streamonator/hittertron is a paid expression of his background equations, if that makes sense. Rudy has a combo platter of things working in the background, a lot that is controlled by license, etc.
My confidence ranking is a custom algorithm based on Rudy’s generous free public data feed. Last year I was using 3 sites, and this year I just use the available data on Razzball and an intense Excel rendering of that data.
So, long story short: you get MLB stats and the crucial hitter/streamer projections, but there’s an inaccessible background of data running as well. phew!
worth stashing Bauer at this point ? Should I drop him for one of these MIR or Blackburn ?
90% chance Bauer doesn’t take the field this year and 50/50 he ever pitches again. MLB’s continuing ‘suspension’ demonstrates that they have more information than was released publicly and they’re extremely worried about the financial impact (read; liability) if Bauer takes the field. Move on.
I don’t understand. How would MLB have liability if Bauer takes the field?
Blair – great article and enjoyed reading it! I like that this format is different and is backed by inputs designed to show current/recent performance. I’m always looking to move fast and beat my league mates to the next breakout.
Your pitching posts are awesome and appreciate all you do. I can tell you are VERY smart to put all this together so nice you have you on my team!
LG
Thanks for the support LG! [virtual high five]
And my dude Beerios throws a gem.
Yeah, the announcers noted he got out of a couple lucky jams, and his xFIP on the game was 2x his ERA, so there’s some nice fielding/luck at play. I love Berrios, so I hope he pulls through.
I just want to say that Kyle Wright was on the waiver wire in all three of the leagues I play in. After he dominated the Reds in his first outing, I ran out and grabbed him in every league on the hope that he’d figured something out but also worried that since the Reds are awful that he’d be back to his old crappy self a week later. Now he’s #1 on your list and I’m feeling pretty smart these days!
Now he just needs to not punch a bench or get hit by a comebacker or slide into second base or…
OK, is it true that Kyle Wright only pitched 6 innings last year? ZIPS has him getting to 124ip. What does Rudy say? And isn’t that a little concerning to you?
Also, are you concerned that Heaney is only using two pitches at this point? Provided his shoulder problem isn’t serious… (sounds to me like it could be since he’s using a pitch he’s never used before) Anyway. Thank you for the in-depth information. I love the validation of seeing almost all of my pitchers in your top two tiers.
Rudy has Wright for 18 more starts, but that dynamically adjusts as the year goes on, so not a huge worry.
Not a huge concern about Heaney — Robbie Ray did the culling to two pitches last year (basically — 90%+ of his pitches were fastball/slider, and upwards of 75% fastballs in individual games) and won the AL Cy Young. Sometimes, the easiest way to improve is to simplify.
upped him manually for tomorrow’s ROS projections.
Good grief, you actually want a player to get hurt. Did your daddy not play catch with you growing up? Or did mommy not show you enough attention?
Pick up King over Doval?
10 team keeper QS, k/9, era whip saves.
I own Whitlock already.
In a 10 teamer QS, you might want to get a true starter or true reliever because those Roleless Rob Wins won’t mean anything for you, which leaves guys like King as contributing only k/9, era, and whip.
But if that doesn’t matter, then yeah, take the hot hand and go King
Doval got his 4th save tonight. No way I’d dump him for King. I’d find someone else to cut though.
Pablo was @ 100 IP last year. How many do you see him going this year?
People still worry about the shoulder, and I’m people too. I’d put 150 on the high end for his IP, which is more than enough volume to help.
Points League – Need to pick one for this week:
Kelly (LAD, @STL), Eflin (COL, @NYM), Lauer (CHC)?
Kelly. Good luck!
The season is still early, so I know I will have plenty of time to understand what is being presented. Last year, I totally enjoyed your column, but I can’t figure this one out. I assume this is a Rest of Season rating.
I recognize that 2022 to-date data is limited, so everything needs to be taken lightly. Still, I immediately noticed King as a “Tier 1 starter”, and I know you highlighted him in your text. And I know that “inning eating” effective relievers have value. W/o more understanding, I don’t see how someone like King (who will likely not surpass 100 innings) can have that level of value. In fact (except for K/9), King’s stats are less impressive than many other similar usage guys (Dylan Peters, for example, is only “Tier 4”).
What makes King so much higher ranked? Are other non-publicized parameters being employed?
I’ve used King as an example so that I can understand how to use your results. I’m sure that once I can better understand the methodology — they will be a great input for my decisions this year.
Thanks.
Welcome to small sample size kingdom! Yeah, am I ranking King over Gerrit Cole for the ROS? Probably not. That’s why we have Rudy’s rankings.
A philosophical deviation I hide in my rankings is that, naturally, I should provide something useful yet different than Rudy or any of the other bajillion rankers out there. That’s where I developed the Confidence ranking last year, and it had the surprising outcome of being A) simple [it’s a numerical output]; B) free (and this year I made it even more free by using Razzball-only data]; and C) more accurate than most other ranking systems. At year end, my 2021 SP-only Confidence rank had an overall .74 correlation to SP performance on the End of Year Player Rater. In smaller samples (like, the top 75 SP), I had a .82 correlation. So, that was a plus.
On the backend, I calculate K/9 and combine it with some other metrics that factor in batters per IP, FIP, discrepancy between ERA/FIP, IP volume, etc.
These are weighted to purposefully be more recency-bias influenced, thus “projecting” more for the near-term, and providing a yin to the yang of Rudy’s projections, which are based more on year-over-year returns (which is, tbh, the proper way to do projections). So just like last year, I’d proclaim my system is more “descriptive” — what a player is doing right now — vs “proscriptive” — or what a player should be doing based on our previous experience.
The great mystery of projections is how quickly we should adapt to small sample size. My in-season confidence is an attempt to react to that — whereas Rudy will provide a more conservative approach, mine will react quicker.
All that to say, my system says Michael King *is* pitching out of his mind right now. Rudy’s system says he *will* calm down. Now it’s up to the individual fantasy manager to determine how aggressive they want to be based on that data.
Hope that helps!
Yes it does. I also didn’t fully appreciate that you were biasing towards the recent past. That’s why a guy like Darvish won’t rise to the top tier until your tool can forget his 10-run explosion two starts ago.
BTW U am always interested in cheap, effective inning eaters … I think you may be my best source for this. And I’m sure I’ll appreciate your table when data gets normalize (4 weeks?).
Thanks.
Indeed, the explosion starts will take a while to overcome, and FIP is an attempt to do peer through the veil of how much responsibility a pitcher has for those blowouts. I have another homegrown metric in the calculations — one I’m still working on and testing so I don’t want to weigh it heavily in the ranks — but it should help account more for pitcher responsibility.
But at a certain point, giving up 10 runs reduces everybody’s confidence lol
Hi Blair,
thanks for this great sheet. a couple of pitching questions;
2 Would you pick up Josh Fleming off waivers, if yes, who would you waive among; paul blackburn, Cristian Javier, Christian Flexan or Cal Quantrill?
Thanks!
martin
I’m never a huge fan of Irvin, but Heaney’s injured and honestly there’s not a huge market for him, so I wouldn’t worry. Start Irvin and then get Heaney back later.
Keep Javier — if he’s good this week he’s going to be 100% owned next week.
Flexen can always be a drop, but he’s a fine spot starter. Fleming’s Roleless Rob situation can produce about as much value as Flexen in the near term, but monitor his usage. Hope this helps!
Thanks Blair!
I appreciate all of these details! It really helps me!
I was going to stay with not starting Merrill Kelly vs. the Dodgers Buehler. Am I correct with leaving him on the bench for tonight?
Your help is very much appreciated.
Martin
6 mins left but I’m OK with Kelly vs LAD if you *need* it, but I doubt you NEED it. Otherwise, sit.
Liking an add of Fleming over Brash or Stroman?
Everybody in the world likes Brash and I’m kinda meh. I grab Brash and see what happens…Fleming will still be there if Brash crashes.
Who of these is a top sell-high? McGill or Carrasco
Tylor’s been playing out of his mind and would be the proper sell-high. That said, he’s also the pitcher with the better chance of making lasting change. So, if you like risk, sell Tylor. Good luck!
Different players, but in a 12-team 5×5 league, who would you rather have:
Owen Miller or Jorge Mateo
Thanks,
I picked up Miller in most leagues…even after he calms down I like the stat line for the time being. Good luck!