SAGNOF: Dual Category Droolers

Here we go now! It it officially the start of my big time drafting season as I am sure many of you readers are also about ready to get down and dirty in the draft room. Monday we kicked off an industry wide league on NFBC called TGFBI or The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. Tuesday night we did out first Razzball NFBC $150 Auction which was a blast. If you haven’t done an auction format before I highly recommend it as I believe personally this is the most fun you can have in a draft. If Truss lets me I might even write up a recap and include some auction strategy for y’all. Friday night I have my first RCL draft scheduled at 10PM ET, and we are still looking for more Razzballeroos to fill that baby up. You should join one here at this link for Razzball Commenter Leagues and if you want to draft with me get in that Friday night draft (Click HERE to join that league!). Then Monday we kickoff the Razzball hosted Best Ball draft RazzSlam V “Cinco De Slammo.” You’ll see plenty of insight from many writers on Razzslam. I’ve got more drafts after that, but this is the big week for me.

My job with SAGNOF, before we get to games that count, is to help you find some “steals” in the draft to bolster that stolen base category while not limiting your upside across the rest of your batting stats. Last week in my Article we looked at what to do if you missed on stolen bases in the first part of the draft. Guys that could help you catch up fast. This week I am going to give you some of my top players I am targeting later on in the draft that can help a team continue to grow the stolen base category while kicking in some nice totals in other categories as well. These are the 2+ category guys going after 150th in a draft that I can’t keep my tongue in my mouth for. This will help you if you are behind the eight ball in runs and steals, or perhaps you need to target some RBIs and steals? Either way I’ve got some guys to help you.

I am going to give you my top folks to target with some specific secondary stat totals to pair up with at least double digit steals. My thresholds for the other batting categories are the following:

Runs – 70

Home Runs – 15

RBIs – 70

Batting Average – .270

OBP – .350

Runs and Steals

Steven Kwan, OF: Cleveland Guardians. 2023 Player Rater 152. Pre-February ADP 209; February ADP 211.

Kwan actually meets my standards in Runs, Batting Average, and OBP. I have him ranked at 188th overall and would look at taking him a few rounds before his ADP if I was short on runs and steals. He took a step back in average in 2023, but his BABIP was well below his average for the majors and his minor league history up to that point and I expect him to bounce back. He is one of the best in MLB at putting that bat to the ball so contact isn’t an issue. Getting a solid three category contributor at that stage in the draft is a thing of beauty. My prediction .282/87/5/50/20.

Jarren Duran, OF: Boston Red Sox. 2023 Player Rater 263. Pre-February ADP 179; February ADP 156.

Duran has been moving up draft boards with the news that he will leadoff in 2024 every day. I am not a firm believer in that as his 33.3% K-rate vs lefties may lead to some platooning. Either way riding the top of that order should allow him to rack up a decent amount of runs and he isn’t going to hurt you in Home Runs or batting average. I have him ranked at 97th overall which is well ahead of his current draft position. My Prediction .262/88/13/54/30

Home Runs and Steals

Henry Davis, OF: Pittsburgh Pirates. 2023 Player Rater 909. Pre-February ADP 333; February ADP 251.

People finally realized this month that Davis is a former #1 overall pick I guess? He had a wrist injury that hampered his timeline in 2022 and I believe lingered into 2023. That being said he still launched 19 bombs and stole 13 bases across three levels last year. He is catching in spring training and should see some time there this year which will only increase his value once he gets catcher eligibility. Endy Rodriguez’s season already being over Yasmani Grandal and Davis likely will get most of the work behind the plate, but Davis should be in the lineup every day between C, OF, or DH. He is only going to get better with time this year. He is ranked 262 for me very close to his current draft position. My Prediction .244/55/22/69/12

Zach Neto, SS: Los Angeles Angels. 2023 Player Rater 621. Pre-February ADP 291; February ADP 297

The lack of Neto love is confusing. So is Ron Washington already coming out and saying he is going to bat him ninth and leadoff Mickey Moniak. He had a left oblique strain which zapped some of his season along with a trip to the IL for back stiffness in 2023. If healthy though going into his second season against MLB pitching there is some serious upside here. He hit 14 Home Runs across three levels last year in 379 Plate Appearances. His BABIP was lower than he had in the minors and should increase as he will likely cut down on the fly-balls so the BA and OBP should be on the rise. Of course, there is also the possibility he tanks in April and gets shipped back to the minors, but I digress. I have him ranked 201st well ahead of his current draft position. My Prediction .257/69/18/65/13

RBIs and Steals

James Outman, OF: Los Angeles Dodgers. 2023 Player Rater 102. Pre-February ADP 180; February ADP 183.

Well…Here’s a four category contributor going later than 180th. Everyone should be Inman on Outman. He became an everyday player for the Dodgers for the most part in 2024 playing in 151 games. He will bat near the bottom of the order for a strong Dodgers lineup, but will still have plenty of chances to drive in runs with the surrounding cast. His numbers against lefties may lead to some platoons and his inflated BABIP (Low Hard-Hit Percent does not support it) means there is probably some regression in average and OBP coming, but he should continue to get the green light on the base paths. Outman converted 16 of 19 chances and should get the chance to move up whenever possible with Heyward and Lux likely hitting behind him. My ranking has him at 139th for 2024. My Prediction .239/73/22/77/16

Jordan Westburg, 2B/3B: Baltimore Orioles. 2023 Player Rater 838. Pre-February ADP 352; February ADP 325.

Westburg was tearing up AAA before his arrival in The Show, but really struggled to acclimate to MLB pitching and the giant left field at Camden Yards. He homered 18 times in 301 plate appearances before his arrival, but only had three homes in 228 PA in MLB. His excellent defense (one error in 206 chances) should keep him in the lineup even with the anticipated MLB arrival of Jackson Holliday. He had a solid Hard Hit % and exit velocity and if he can cut down on his 31.2 O-Swing% the average should come up. As far as swiping bags he has 88th percentile sprint speed and was 10 for 11 last season so I think he’ll run more hitting in the bottom half of the Orioles order. Ramon Urias could steal some ABs, but I still see Westburg getting to around 450. My Ranking is at 166th. My Prediction .271/60/19/71/14

Batting Average and Steals

Jung Hoo Lee, OF: San Francisco Giants. 2023 Player Rater N/A. Pre-February ADP 280; February ADP 248

Lee is anticipated to be the leadoff man for the season in San Fran after signing a 6-Year $113 Million deal in December. He is only 25 years young, but he hasn’t stolen many bases in the KBO up to this point. Getting a new manager in town for the Giants like Bob Melvin, who has a history of being aggressive on the base paths will help him get back to swiping some bags out of that leadoff spot. He has a career .340 BA in the KBO with a .407 OBP. That should translate to at least .275 in MLB. I’m still in a wait-and-see mode on him with the side injury that already popped up in camp, but if you need some help in BA and someone to chip in 10 steals Lee should be in play for you. My Ranking for Lee is 238th. My Prediction .287/82/8/50/12

Amed Rosario, 2B/SS: Tampa Bay Rays. 2023 Player Rater 240. Pre-February ADP 385; February ADP 416.

Rosario is sliding in the drafts with news of my deepest sleeper from last week Jose Caballero being the primary SS in Tampa. I still think Rosario will find himself in the rotation for the Rays especially against southpaws. He is also going to be used in the outfield along with the MI spots so there will still be At-bats to be had. We know Kevin Cash loves the running game so look for Rosario to be on the move with his 15 of 17 conversions on the base paths in 2023. My Ranking for Rosario is 377 so he is a deep league play, but if Caballero struggles or gets hurt his value will increase greatly. My Prediction .275/60/5/50/12

OBP and Steals

Lars Nootbaar, OF: St. Louis Cardinals. 2023 Player Rater 233. Pre-February ADP 199; February ADP 202.

Well, Tyler O’Neill has finally been moved from his doghouse in STL to Fenway Park which should mean more at-bats for Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson. Nootbaar was also a frequent visitor to the IL in 2023 so we should see a nice lift in counting stats as well. He could see a bit of a platoon against lefties with his splits but should get to 500 Plate appearances easily. As for the running game, he was 11 of 12 on the season on a team that doesn’t give the green light as much. We need Marmol to get with the times. My Nootbaar ranking is 171. My Prediction .267/77/17/65/13 with a .369 OBP.

Edouard Julien, 2B: Minnesota Twins. 2023 Player Rater 351. Pre-February ADP 212; February ADP 211.

Yeah, His sprint speed isn’t great. The defensive skills and issues against left-handed pitching are also not great. His on-base skills and power however are great. He still strikes out too much, but a 15.7% MLB walk rate is elite stuff to pair with 60-grade Raw Power. The goofy part about the Ks are he only swings at 12.2% of pitches outside the zone, so there’s gotta be some serious improvement coming there as well. Want more info on Julien check out Grey’s Edouard Julien Sleeper post. As for me, I see the steals coming up and improving as he was 6 for 6 last year after going 19 for 26 in AA in 2022. If he’s at the top of the order he’ll get some chances. Going against him is Rocco Baldelli only attempting .63 steals per game for the Twins. Rocco must be taking the fact that he couldn’t run after age 23 out on all his young players. Anyhoo, I’m all in on Julien this year. My overall ranking on Julien is 82nd way above ADP and he will likely be on my roster in multiple spots. My Prediction .282/100/23/64/11 with a .391 OBP.