The fantasy baseball season has officially kicked off and we have real, live draft data to sift through. Numbers nerds, assemble! We have spreadsheets, charts and ADP, oh my! It was a busy first week here at Razzball Commenter Leagues HQ but I’ve gone through each league that has drafted and added their drafts to a master spreadsheet in order to calculate RCL ADP. We’ve had eighteen leagues draft already, so there’s plenty of numbers to look at. We’ve had some close calls, but all leagues have filled so far and we’d love to keep it that way. We don’t want to axe any leagues, so if you notice your league is not full the day before the draft, hit us up on Twitter: @Razzball or @MattTruss and let us know. You can also leave a comment in Grey’s most recent post and/or invite a friend to join. I know, sacrilege to tell your fantasy baseball friends you read Razzball, but sharing is caring. Speaking of sharing, jump below and I’ll share with you a fancy RCL ADP spreadsheet for your perusing pleasure.
DRAFT TRENDS
We’ve got eighteen leagues worth of draft data to peek at. Being first to draft means first to be criticized, so we’ll dive into the numbers and see what’s going on in the early draft season.
THE FIRST PICK OF THE 2018 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT IS…
Mike Trout ^17…wait…17? Yup, it looks like someone couldn’t wait to get their hands on Mookie Ballgame and took him first overall. These two are the consensus top 2 picks and I’ve seen Mookie go #1 a couple times in various drafts so far. Where things really get interesting is the third pick. So far we have Jose Ramirez leading the charge with 11 leagues, the remaining 8 are split up with three Christian Yelich, two Bryce Harper, a Trea Turner and a Ronald Acuna. This makes me wish I had done more early drafts. Bryce Harper was going in the early second round before signing with Philly, now we’re seeing that price soar.
WE DON’T NEED NO STINKIN’ NFBC ADP
We’ve got RCL ADP! Here’s a list from our eighteen league sample of some guys I’m lusting for this year and some general notes. If there’s an ADP you’re curious about for my next update, fire away and I’ll add them to the chart next time out. This time around I decided to look at some of the kids everyone is excited to draft as well as some soon to be AARP members.
| PLAYER | ADP | HI | LO | DIFF |
| Acuna Jr., Ronald | 7.94 | 3 | 12 | 9 |
| Soto, Juan | 28.83 | 17 | 41 | 24 |
| Mondesi, Adalberto | 32.83 | 22 | 46 | 24 |
| Buehler, Walker | 40.83 | 32 | 49 | 17 |
| Guerrero Jr., Vladimir | 47.22 | 37 | 57 | 20 |
| Robles, Victor | 88.33 | 51 | 125 | 74 |
| Jimenez, Eloy | 100.56 | 78 | 116 | 38 |
| Lucchesi, Joey | 155.56 | 100 | 216 | 116 |
| Kikuchi, Yusei | 179.67 | 135 | 209 | 74 |
Ronald Acuna falling to twelve is a travesty. I am ridiculously jealous of whoever landed Acuna there.
Sexy Doctor Pepper has been sneaking into some second rounds, I think I’m a little risk-averse, but I’d be all over him in the third with a solid floor pick at one and two.
Adalberto Mondesi isn’t quite going as high as Grey has him ranked but he’s not falling past the fourth round either.
Oh, I wish I had more leagues drafted so far and I am very curious to see where Vlad levels off to now that the injury news has come out. Acuna was drafted around pick 78 last season, and that seems to be about where I would rank Vlad this year, not the 30 spots higher he’s going early on.
Robles has been all over the map with a 74 pick spread. If you have a need for speed and didn’t nab Trea Turner, Robles is a nice 7th round consolation.
Speaking of all over the map, Joey Lucchesi has a 116 pick spread. I guess if your draft is really avoiding starters, but boy, 216 is pretty crazy.
I’m definitely eyeballing Kikuchi at his current price and especially if I miss out on Lucchesi.
Now, out with new, in with the old:
| PLAYER | ADP | HI | LO | DIFF |
| Verlander, Justin | 26.44 | 19 | 38 | 19 |
| Votto, Joey | 61.72 | 39 | 96 | 57 |
| Greinke, Zack | 71.94 | 60 | 99 | 39 |
| Kershaw, Clayton | 76.5 | 36 | 167 | 131 |
| Cruz, Nelson | 92.33 | 52 | 126 | 74 |
| Donaldson, Josh | 97.61 | 78 | 113 | 35 |
| Price, David | 97.94 | 70 | 118 | 48 |
| Encarnacion, Edwin | 112.33 | 85 | 151 | 66 |
| Cano, Robinson | 122.11 | 79 | 151 | 72 |
| Happ, J.A. | 123.28 | 99 | 149 | 50 |
| McCutchen, Andrew | 137.28 | 96 | 166 | 70 |
| Cabrera, Miguel | 176.28 | 138 | 208 | 70 |
Is this the season Verlander finally gives in to father time? I’m avoiding and hoping so.
Since I have been the keeper of RCL data the past few seasons I have the historical ADP data. It’s always nice to check back on last year and see where some of these guys were being drafted, compare it to this year and see if the rise/drop is warranted.
For instance, Joey Votto was drafted 19th overall last year. That didn’t return value and now he’s being corrected.
Clayton Kershaw is dropping like a rock, from 10th overall last year to 76th this year, that’s a huge fall. Of course, this could be a lost regular season for Kershaw if he’s hurt and/or the Dodgers baby him all year until the playoffs. I’m not looking his way at all, but for the price, I could see it.
I’ve called for Nelson Cruz to fail every year for the past 5 seasons it seems like. I’m done, he’s a lock for 30+ bombs and I’ve been scooping him up here and there. Now, of course, I’ve given him the kiss of death.
Josh Donaldson was the 31st player off the board last year in a lost season. This year you can scoop up the former MVP at pick 97. In a stacked Braves lineup, I’ve been throwing him some glances but haven’t pulled the trigger yet.
J.A. Happ is a curious case, drafted 266th last year he’s now being taken at pick 123 following a late breakout season. Are you buying?
McCutchen is interesting to me, he was drafted 91st overall last year and I expected that to get a bump this year being in Philly, however, his ADP has actually dropped to 137. I don’t think the one year older trumps the better ballpark and lineup here. I hope to land some McCutchen shares as the drafts go on.
If you made it this far, you earn a reward. I told you I was a numbers nerd. Now you can take a look at any player you want as more and more data is collected. I’ll be keeping that sheet up to date as I collect draft data, so bookmark it and check back often. Speaking of RCL drafts, we still need a couple high rollers for our $100 legacy leagues, Cougs R Us and Night of the Living Zombinos. We’re also looking for a few good managers to jump in our Original Recipe RCL. That league is the longest running RCL we have. Go ahead and shoot me an email: [email protected] if you’re interested in any of those. Also, head to the spreadsheet and sign up for any number of leagues you wish!
TO JOIN A LEAGUE
Click the LINK in the ‘League Link’ column (see below grid) for the time you want and YOU’RE IN. Damn, that’s too easy. Oh, I guess I should also mention make sure you’re joining a league for free or for money, depending on your preference. If you want a league for money, then 1) Click the link. 2) Pay the money. That’s it! No pesky third requirement! Again, Fantrax and Razzball take no money. You can join as many free or paid leagues as you like. To quit a league, go to OTHER –> All Options –> Quit League (located at the bottom). Now go join some leagues!
Want to be my Twitter pal? That’s kinda creepy, but you can follow me here: @MattTruss
