Points Leagues: Mid-Season Check-Up

The Midseason Classic doesn’t take place for a couple more weeks, but by actual games played, we have reached the midpoint of the season. As such, I thought it would be worth taking a look at some of the surprises and disappointments of the first half. This is similar to what I’ve done on a month-to-month basis so far, but this time with a more wholistic view. In the preseason, I wrote an article making some long-shot predictions for the season, so we’ll see how those are going, too. (Spoiler alert: they’ve been mostly hilariously bad.)

As a programming note for the next couple weeks, the plan is to release a complete rest-of-season ranking next week. I’ve been going by position group each month so far, but this will put everyone together into one big list, because who doesn’t like a list? That will need to tide you over for a couple weeks, because the following week, besides being the aforementioned All-Star break, I will be somewhere that isn’t in front of my computer, and I’m not writing this thing on my phone.

 

Catcher

First Half Pleasant Surprise: Dillon Dingler, DET

Before getting injured, Liam Hicks was the runaway winner here, and maybe he still should be. But, I’m going with Dingler.

Coming into the season, there was a lot of conversation about how the position was the strongest it’s been in a very long time, if not ever. While it hasn’t been bad by any means, it hasn’t been what we hoped for. We’ll get to that in a second. For now, credit to the Tigers backstop for taking himself from the ranks of C2, and thus pretty much irrelevant for points leagues, and swatting his way into the top-5 of the position. More than Hicks, the underlying numbers suggest he may not just be a half-season wonder, either.

First Half Disappointment: Cal Raleigh, SEA

Last season, the Seattle slugger swatted 60 HR. This season he sits at eight. Eight! Yes, he spent a few weeks on the shelf with an oblique injury, but he’d been pretty terrible before that happened. Now, do I expect him to hit .165 the rest of the way? No. But I do think he’ll be hard pressed to get that number up to his career mark of .221. Regression should have always been expected after last year’s season for the ages, but no one saw this coming. Not only has he given things back this season, he’s sitting at career lows in almost every single metric.

Second Half Prediction: Kyle Teel is a top-12 C the rest of the way.

Let’s get a little bold here to start with. This isn’t the likeliest outcome, but I can see it. The first half of his season was pretty well ruined by a hamstring injury suffered at the World Baseball Classic, and then by tweaking his knee when he was first about to return. Even before his injury, he wasn’t being drafted as a top-12 option at the position. I like his profile for this format, though, and his having fresher legs than his compatriots as we hit the hot summer months could make him an appealing option.

 

First Base

Pre-Season Prediction: Miguel Vargas is a Top-12 1B

So far, so good, as he is currently not only in the top-12, but easily inside the top-5. This is also looking like the only chance I have for one of my audacious prognostications to hit. So, please, Miguel, keep hitting.

First Half Pleasant Surprise: Miguel Vargas, CHW

19 HR, 52 RBI, 56 R, 14 2B, 10 SB, and 49 BB to 59 K? I’d say that qualifies.

First Half Disappointment: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR

He was the first basemen off the board. Your second-round draft pick. And he’s barely been a top-20 option at the position, if you’re on his friendliest scoring system. He hasn’t been hurt, he just hasn’t hit for any extra-base power at all. I would still expect him to end up closer to 20 HR rather than 10, but it does feel like one of those seasons that you’re just never really happy having him around.

Second Half Prediction: Vlad turns it around enough to get inside the top-12 at the position for the season, but falls short of the top-5 option he was assumed to be. Meanwhile Nick Kurtz, who faced a healthy amount of skepticism about whether he deserved to be drafted as high as he was, finishes as the top dog.

 

Second Base

Pre-Season Prediction: Jorge Polanco is a top-5 2B

Lol. Turns out betting on the guy with a significant injury history and signed with the Mets wasn’t a great call. Who could have known?!

First Half Pleasant Surprise: Otto Lopez, MIA

Lopez was decent last season, but that was it. By ADP, he was the 28th 2B off the board this spring. All he’s done so far is lead baseball in hits, and the position at points. Will he continue to hit .332? That would be a crazy thing to bank on, so probably not. But could he continue to hit around .300, with a decent amount of runs and steals? Yes. I’d bet against him ending the season as the top dog, but I can see him remaining a must-start option.

First Half Disappointment: Jazz Chisholm Jr., NYY

Jazz entered the year saying he wanted to go 50-50. And, to be fair, he is on pace for 47 steals, so that part of the combo isn’t out of the equation. Reaching his current pace of 23 HR wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, either. The issue is everything else. Despite the 12 homers, he just isn’t hitting the ball with any authority, or with enough consistency. As a result, he’s only been the 21st ranked 2B at ESPN to this point. Over at CBS, where his Ks aren’t penalized as heavily, he does come in at 12th. It’s better, but still not what you wanted from your 2nd round pick.

Second Half Prediction: Travis Bazzana is a top-8 scorer at the position in the 2nd half.

I never said they were all going to be bold. Bazzana has been solid for Cleveland since getting the call overall, but the last month has been fairly rough. I think he makes the necessary adjustments and gets back to being the contributor he was earlier in the season.

 

Third Base

Pre-Season Prediction: Ernie Clement is a top-8 3B.

He’s the American League’s leading vote getter and starting 2B for the All-Star Game, so does that get me any credit at all? No? Didn’t think so. Oh well.

However! He’s actually not as far off from meeting this prediction as you might think. Sure, at CBS he only comes in at 15th. But over at ESPN, he’s been 9th at the position so far. The reason for that is the reason for the prediction to begin with. Namely, he doesn’t strike out. Like, ever. So while he may not have the thump in the bat you might associate with a corner spot, he doesn’t lose you points, and that’s something.

First Half Pleasant Surprise: Kevin McGonigle, DET

Yes, he was one of the top prospects in baseball coming into the season. But did you see him as a top-5 3B? Oh hush, no you did not.

So, considering he has even fewer HR than Clement, how has he done it? Plate discipline. He’s in the 89th% for K% and the 93rd% in BB%. Nothing in his statistical profile particularly stands out, he’s just solid across the board. And in points leagues, that matters.

First Half Disappointment: Manny Machado, SD

He’s on pace for 29 HR and 86 RBI. Those numbers might be disappointing, but nothing catastrophic. But then you look at the batting average, and it’s a shocking .188. Batting average in and of itself isn’t a concern in points leagues, but do you know what are? Hits. And he’s not getting them. Add to it being on pace to strikeout a career-high number of times, and he finds himself on the outskirts of the top-15 at the position.

Second Half Prediction: Junior Caminero gets to 50 HR.

He hit 45 as a rookie last season. He’s currently on pace for 44 this year. Here’s saying he bumps that up just a little bit and gets to the nice, round number.

 

Shortstop

First Half Pleasant Surprise: C.J. Abrams, WSH

Abrams was drafted just inside the top-10 of the position in the spring, and has rewarded those who took him by being the top performer to this point. The previous couple years his first halves were significantly better than his second halves, so that is something to at least keep an eye on. Also, the Savant page isn’t as red as you might expect from someone with Abrams’ numbers so far. But the numbers are what they are, and what they are is fantastic.

First Half Disappointment: Trea Turner, PHI

Gunnar Henderson is right there with him, but I’ll give the edge to Turner because he’s been worse. The speed is still there, but that bat has turned into a wet noodle. It’s not good, folks.

Second Half Prediction: Turner doesn’t turn it around and finishes outside the top-10.

The track record says to trust him to come good. But sometimes it’s just not a guy’s year. And Turner is 32, which isn’t old, but it’s not young, either. He’s also always had a game that relied heavily on his athleticism, and he’s had a number of leg injuries over the years. Maybe I’m being overly pessimistic here. And I’m not saying he’s done as a worthwhile fantasy asset forever. This just has the feel of a lost season for Turner.

 

Outfield

Pre-Season Prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong is not a Top-30 OF.

If you’re going to be wrong, be wildly, insanely, hilariously wrong, am I right?

I looked at his strikeout rate and how bad he was to finish the season, and I bet big on the young Cub failing to deliver on his draft day value. He, um…hasn’t done that. He’s very good. I was very wrong. Let’s move on.

First Half Pleasant Surprise: Bryan Reynolds, PIT

After a number of years as a solid, reliable producer, Reynolds sort of fell apart this season. People were writing him off to the point that he was barely among the top 50 OF drafted this spring. All he’s done since then is go out and be a top-5 performer. Everything under the hood says it’s entirely earned, too. So while I’d probably assume there is some regression in the second half of the season, I expect him to remain firmly in must-start territory.

First Half Disappointment: Fernando Tatis Jr., SD

I’ve talked about him before. Others have talked about him before. He’s been a bit better lately, hitting .320 with both of his homers over the last month. Now, saying “both of his homers” isn’t exactly high praise, but it’s better than what we’d gotten the first couple months of the season! Going forward, Tatis should be fine. I certainly wouldn’t be counting on him to pop 20 HR the rest of the way, but it’s not impossible. I really don’t know what to make of him. He’s frustrating, I know that.

Second Half Prediction: Jac Caglionone is a top-20 OF in the second half.

Jac was the hot pick this spring as he tore things up in the games that didn’t count. Then the season started, and he was…bad. But over the last few weeks, he’s been good. Very good! The K-rate is atrocious, which will hurt him in -1/K leagues. But overall, he has been tearing the cover off the ball, showing why he was on no worse than equal footing with Nick Kurtz as a prospect entering last season. It took him longer to find his footing, but it sure looks like he’s found it.