Head-to-head points leagues are a completely different animal than roto leagues. A player’s value in one format does not translate to the other. He (or she) that uses roto rankings at a H2H points league draft is like the jackass that brings a knife to a gunfight when he knows he’s headed to a gunfight. A prime example would be Chris Davis who is much more valuable in roto leagues than he is in points leagues. To further complicate the matter, all points leagues are not created equal. Not even close. Nearly all leagues have their own version of some “standard” scoring system. Perhaps one league awards two points for a stolen base and another gives just one. That subtle difference boosts the value of a base stealer in the two-point stolen base league resulting in a different set of rankings. Jose Altuve becomes more valuable than both Albert Pujols and Andrew McCutchen (based on 2015 stats). Knowing your system is essential to navigating a draft or auction.
Here’s a personal example. In my private league that I’ve been in for fifteen years pitchers receive ten points for a win, one point for every out and another point for a strikeout. There are other pitching categories, but these three exemplify my point. As a result pitchers consistently end up with higher totals than batters. Much higher totals. Paul Goldschmidt and Bryce Harper ended the season with 573 points. Eighteen starting pitchers scored more points with Clayton Kershaw at 856 and Colin McHugh at 574. This is the definition of a bad scoring system. I have tried for years to get the league to correct it, but apparently change is scary. There should not be 18 starting pitchers more valuable than the top bats. I googled “skewed scoring system” and my league’s homepage was the first result in the list. Guess I should be “feeling lucky”.
The mark of a quality points scoring system is one in which the top hitters and top pitchers score approximately the same number of points. The first round of selections in the draft should contain both hitters and pitchers, forcing owners to decide which route they want take when beginning to formulate their roster. After the top ten or so hitters and pitchers there will inevitably be more hitters in the list because there are more hitters in the player pool. That’s just simple math. There are six non-pitching positions (1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, C) and just one pitching (ignoring relief pitchers). If you were to take all players (hitters and pitchers) and sort them in descending order by fantasy points, the top ten to twenty should be an even mix of hitters and pitchers. After that you should see something like one pitcher to every five or so hitters. This is the end goal. Getting there is the battle. Or perhaps convincing your league mates the change is required is the real battle.
In recent years that have been some movements toward using linearly weighted stats to determine points. The premise is the events that lead to scoring runs are linear. Events that advance runners get positive points and those that do not are negative. Hits are good and outs are bad. The concept is simple. Embracing it is not. The first problem is that to many it just doesn’t feel right. We are all accustomed to using the stats that can routinely be found on the back of a baseball card to determine points. These include home runs, RBIs, runs and stolen bases (for the most part). These easy counting stats make the translation from stat to point much simpler for the average fantasy baseball player to compute.
The most popular example of linear weighted scoring systems in action are the Ottoneau Leagues. They claim to be smarter and better than standard fantasy leagues. While I applaud the effort to evolve the sport, I am not entirely sold. At least I am not sold on the particular scoring system employed in these leagues.
AB (-1), H (5.6), 2B (2.9), 3B (5.7), HR (9.4), BB (3.0), HBP (3), SB (1.9), CS (-2.8)
IP (7.4), K (2.), H (-2.6), BB (-3), HBP (-3), HR (-12.3), SV (5), HOLDS (4)
How can you not penalize a batter for striking out? A strikeout is pretty much the worst thing you can do when you come to the plate. If your goal it to make the least of your opportunity, then a strikeout would be a raging success. I’m not sure I can justify three points for a hit-by-pitch. The hitter really doesn’t have much influence here. Saying someone is good at getting hit by a pitch in like saying someone is good at bingo. Ok, maybe not exactly considering there are players that are more prone to getting hit and ones that know how to lean into the pitch, but you get my point. Just not my three points. As much as a HBP advances any runners the same as a base on balls does, I just can’t give them equal weights.
I realize that RBIs are situational, but they still deserve some credit. How about runs scored. If the whole idea is about rewarding events that lead to scoring, why not also reward scoring? I’m not sure what to make of the pitching points, so I’ll leave that alone for today.
There is something that I do like about this scoring system. It seems to result is an equal dispersion of hitters and pitchers near the top of the list when ranked by points scored. Here’s what I found when I applied this scoring system to 2015 and 2014 stats.
2015 Top 25
| Player | FPTS | Position |
| Clayton Kershaw | 1925.18 | SP |
| Bryce Harper | 1846.1 | LF |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1830.9 | 1B |
| Jake Arrieta | 1798.6 | SP |
| Max Scherzer | 1792.78 | SP |
| Joey Votto | 1778.8 | 1B |
| Josh Donaldson | 1776.5 | 3B |
| Mike Trout | 1752.9 | CF |
| Dallas Keuchel | 1700.8 | SP |
| Zack Greinke | 1680.18 | SP |
| Manny Machado | 1660.9 | 3B |
| Chris Archer | 1658.8 | SP |
| Nelson Cruz | 1657 | RF |
| Corey Kluber | 1644.4 | SP |
| Madison Bumgarner | 1628.82 | SP |
| Nolan Arenado | 1625.3 | 3B |
| A.J. Pollock | 1624 | CF |
| Chris Davis | 1619.1 | 1B |
| David Price | 1618.22 | SP |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 1613.7 | LF |
| Chris Sale | 1607.38 | SP |
| Anthony Rizzo | 1581 | 1B |
| Jose Bautista | 1578.4 | RF |
| J.D. Martinez | 1564.2 | LF |
| Andrew McCutchen | 1562.6 | CF |
In the top 25 there are ten starting pitchers and 15 batters. If you expand this to the top 120 (the first ten rounds in a twelve team league) you will find 47 starting pitchers and 73 batters. The average point total for pitchers is 1435 with a standard deviation of 149. For batters we are looking at an average points of 1432 and a standard deviation of 156.
In 2014 the results are similar, but there are more pitchers in the top 25 and 120. The average points scored for the 55 pitchers in the top 120 total players is 1426 and 1414 for the 65 hitters.
2014 Top 25
| Player | FPTS | Position |
| David Price | 1,961.92 | SP |
| Johnny Cueto | 1,879.58 | SP |
| Felix Hernandez | 1,862.20 | SP |
| Corey Kluber | 1,748.18 | SP |
| Mike Trout | 1745.4 | CF |
| Stephen Strasburg | 1,706.10 | SP |
| Jose Altuve | 1668.4 | 2B |
| Victor Martinez | 1659.4 | DH |
| Madison Bumgarner | 1,656.92 | SP |
| Max Scherzer | 1,649.02 | SP |
| Michael Brantley | 1646.8 | LF |
| Miguel Cabrera | 1640.2 | 1B |
| Jeff Samardzija | 1,630.18 | SP |
| Julio Teheran | 1,625.20 | SP |
| Andrew McCutchen | 1620.4 | CF |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 1615.3 | RF |
| Jose Bautista | 1609.9 | RF |
| Clayton Kershaw | 1,602.72 | SP |
| Jon Lester | 1,602.18 | SP |
| Jose Abreu | 1592.8 | 1B |
| James Shields | 1,587.30 | SP |
| Nelson Cruz | 1568.4 | RF |
| Freddie Freeman | 1561.2 | 1B |
| Jered Weaver | 1,536.72 | SP |
| Anthony Rendon | 1528.2 | 2B |
This scoring system still feels foreign to me and I think it neglects some necessary stat categories, but I do applaud the approach and intend to engage in further exploration. In the meantime I’ve embarked on my own mission to decipher a more user-friendly scoring system that meets my hitter/pitcher requirements. I really feel that it’s important for the top 25 ranked players to be an equal mix of hitters and pitchers. This fact will make for more interesting drafts. Decisions won’t be so black and white. Gray area is good. How many people with the number one pick in redraft leagues in the last two seasons really had to think about their pick. By the way, Mike Trout hasn’t been the top points scorer in quite some time in points leagues regardless of the scoring formula.
In points leagues we shouldn’t care where our points come from. In a league that gives one point for a single, one for walk and four for a homer, I am just as happy with four walks as I am with four singles or one home run. The home run is an enticing stat, but a player that hits 18 home runs, steals 20 bases and 190 hits can easily outpoint the player that hits 45 home runs and strikes out 180 times when that league subtracts a point for Ks. A well rounded scoring system will enable players like Jose Altuve and A.J. Pollock to rise to the top.
In my attempt at finding the scoring system nirvana, I found that the road to success is paved with a sh!tload of variables and it smells nothing like teen spirit. Using regular season stats for the last three seasons I wrote some code that would try and help me narrow in on a solution. As a starting point I used the scoring system that, up until today, I considered a fair standard and have been using as the basis for all of my points league posts.
RUN (+1), RBI (+1), 1B (+1), 2B (+2), 3B (+3), HR (+4), BB (+1), KO (-1), HBP (+1), SB (+1), CS (-1), SF (+1)
WIN (+7), LOSS (-5), IP (+3), K (+1), BB (-1), SAVE (+7), BLOWN SAVE (-5), ER (-1), HIT (-1), HBP (-1)
From here I worked backwards. Or maybe it was forwards. After many iterations of number crunching, beers, visits to websites I wouldn’t want appearing in my web history and pushups here is the final result.
RUN (+1), RBI (+1), 1B (+1), 2B (+2), 3B (+3), HR (+5), HIT (+1.5), BB (+1.5), KO (-1.5), SB (+1), CS (-1)
WIN (+5), LOSS (-5), IP (+3), K (+1.5), BB (-1.5), SAVE (+7), BLOWN SAVE (-3), ER (-1), HIT (-1), Pickoff (1), WP (-1), HB (-1)
And here is my explanation for said results.
Runs – To win a baseball game you need to score runs. All other stats in some way relate to runs. With that said, runs must be a stat that results in fantasy points.
RBI – Some will argue that RBIs are a situational stat that hitters have little control over. While this is largely an accurate assessment, it doesn’t change the fact that driving in runs is an essential element of the game. Getting that run across the plate has to count for something. Is an RBI as valuable as a run? They seem pretty complimentary and as a result I’m awarding them the same point value (+1).
1B, 2B, 3B – This is pretty standard.
HR – I’ve decided to give a home run five points instead of the standard four. A home run is the only hit that guarantees at least one run will be scored. Because of this I believe it deserves slightly stronger recognition.
Hit – Some might question why the need to award points for a hit when we are already including singles, doubles, triples and home runs. Here’s why. Hits are the backbone of a productive offense. Hits move runners. Hits score runners. Without hits an offense will suffocate. I could have added 1.5 points to each of the hits subcategories, but I wanted to separate the two ensuring that the number of hits stat is included in the conversation. The 1.5 point value was derived by my code and is one of the keys in establishing a balance between hitters and pitchers.
Walk – I’m sure you’ve all heard the saying “a walk’s as good as a hit”. This isn’t entirely true. Walks are valuable, but unless the bases are loaded a walk doesn’t result in a run. If there is a runner on third, and often second, a base hit will, more often than not, score said runner. A walk can’t say the same. Therefore the 1.5 point value is a point less than the 2.5 single.
Strikeout – Strikeouts are the arch enemy of an offense. The ultimate rally killer. Scroll up to reread my distaste for strikeouts. If we are giving 1.5 points for a walk, then I am subtracting 1.5 points for a strikeout.
Stolen Base – Stealing a base is a gamble. When successful the runner is now 90 feet closer to scoring a run. 90 feet closer to being an RBI. Base stealers can change the dynamics of the game. Pitchers need to be aware of them when they are on the base paths, keeping them from giving the batter their undivided attention. Plus one for a stolen base.
Caught Stealing – Every gamble has both a payoff and downside. Being thrown out when attempting to steal a base slides in right after a strikeout. In some cases it’s just as bad, if not worse depending on the situation. I considered making a caught stealing minus 1.5 or 2 points, but my calculations point at negative one.
Wins – I’m not a big fan of wins, but they have to be accounted for. Wins require run support. Run support is entirely out of the pitchers hands. At least in the American League. I was very happy to see Felix Hernandez win the Cy Young Award back in 2010 with only 13 wins. But a win is a win and it has got to mean something. I say it’s worth five points. Cinco puntos if you’re Spanish.
Losses – Like wins, losses are not entirely the burden of the pitcher. But generally, in order for a pitcher to get the loss he has to have given up at least a run. While it can be an unearned run, the pitcher has still had some participation in the matter. If a win is worth five points, a lose has to be negative five.
Innings Pitched – To me this really boils down to each out a pitcher gets. I could argue that this is one of the more relevant stats we should focus on. The longer the pitcher is out there, the more likely it is he is pitching a good game. Everyone loves innings eaters. I went back and forth on how much an out should be worth and finally settled on one point, making a full inning pitched worth three.
Strikeouts – Who doesn’t love a pitcher that strikes out a lot of batters? That was a rhetorical question, as is this statement. For a batter a strikeout is like a kick in the nuts. To a pitcher it’s the complete opposite. If a batter loses 1.5 points for striking out, then a pitcher gets 1.5 for striking out a batter.
Walks – A strikeout is pretty much the sh!ttiest thing a batter can do. While some might argue that for a pitcher it’s giving up a home run, I’m going with giving up a walk. I’d rather the pitcher let the hitter make contact and give his defense a chance to make the out. A walk is a free pass and the key ingredient to disaster. I avoid pitchers that walk a lot of batters. There are many other fish in the sea. Minus 1.5 for a walk.
Saves – In order to give closers realistic value we have to throw points at a save. As you will notice seven points is the most for any category in the list. Even at seven points this still won’t bring closers near the top, but it does give them value. Closers don’t need to be near the top, they just need to be relevant. I prefer leagues with at least two designated RP spots that can only be filled with a pitcher that has RP eligibility. In leagues that just have P spots that can be occupied by either an SP or an RP you are going to have to increase the value of a save to ten points. Otherwise no one will roster a closer when they net you less points than a low end starter.
Blown Saves – There has got to be a penalty for a blown save.
Hits – Hits for a batter are good. For a pitcher, not so good. The more hits a pitcher gives up, the better the chance the opposing team has to score runs. Hits are the gateway drug to runs. Or something like that. Minus one point for a hit is fair.
Earned Runs – The more runs a pitcher gives up, the less chance his team has at winning.
The remaining pitching categories (pickoffs, hit batsmen and wild pitches) should be self explanatory.
Here are the top 200 players from each of the past three seasons using this scoring system.
2015
| Player | FPTS | Position |
2014
| Player | FPTS | Position |
2013
| Player | FPTS | Position |
| Miguel Cabrera | 923.5 | 1B |
| Max Scherzer | 856.9 | SP |
| Clayton Kershaw | 849 | SP |
| Mike Trout | 833 | CF |
| Adam Wainwright | 828.1 | SP |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 820 | 1B |
| Edwin Encarnacion | 814.5 | 1B |
| Yu Darvish | 799.6 | SP |
| David Ortiz | 793.5 | DH |
| Cliff Lee | 790.1 | SP |
| Joey Votto | 780 | 1B |
| Adrian Beltre | 767.5 | 3B |
| Robinson Cano | 753.5 | 2B |
| Andrew McCutchen | 753.5 | CF |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | 734.6 | SP |
| Josh Donaldson | 726 | 3B |
| Matt Carpenter | 717 | 3B |
| Chris Sale | 713.9 | SP |
| Hunter Pence | 712.5 | RF |
| Matt Holliday | 696.5 | LF |
| Dustin Pedroia | 693 | 2B |
| Felix Hernandez | 692.9 | SP |
| Chris Davis | 692.5 | 1B |
| Prince Fielder | 691.5 | DH |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 683.5 | CF |
| Madison Bumgarner | 683.4 | SP |
| James Shields | 683.1 | SP |
| Jordan Zimmermann | 679.4 | SP |
| Freddie Freeman | 676.5 | 1B |
| Alex Rios | 672 | RF |
| Adam Jones | 671.5 | CF |
| Martin Prado | 665.5 | 3B |
| Coco Crisp | 665 | CF |
| Mat Latos | 663.6 | SP |
| Justin Verlander | 660.9 | SP |
| Matt Harvey | 659.9 | SP |
| Mike Minor | 659.6 | SP |
| Victor Martinez | 658.5 | DH |
| Homer Bailey | 658.5 | SP |
| Daniel Murphy | 654.5 | 2B |
| Jed Lowrie | 654.5 | 3B |
| Cole Hamels | 653 | SP |
| Patrick Corbin | 651.9 | SP |
| Jose Bautista | 648.5 | RF |
| Eric Hosmer | 646.5 | 1B |
| Chris Tillman | 646.4 | SP |
| Anibal Sanchez | 642 | SP |
| C.J. Wilson | 641.4 | SP |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 641 | 1B |
| J.J. Hardy | 633.5 | SS |
| R.A. Dickey | 631.1 | SP |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 631 | SS |
| Jon Lester | 630.9 | SP |
| Jose Fernandez | 630.6 | SP |
| Buster Posey | 630.5 | C |
| Jay Bruce | 630 | RF |
| Carlos Santana | 628.5 | 1B |
| Jonathan Lucroy | 627.5 | C |
| A.J. Griffin | 624.5 | SP |
| Lance Lynn | 624.1 | SP |
| Justin Masterson | 621.5 | SP |
| Derek Holland | 621.5 | SP |
| Andrelton Simmons | 621 | SS |
| Carlos Beltran | 619 | RF |
| Nori Aoki | 616.5 | RF |
| A.J. Burnett | 616 | SP |
| Elvis Andrus | 615.5 | SS |
| Craig Kimbrel | 614 | RP |
| Ben Zobrist | 612 | 2B |
| Stephen Strasburg | 610.5 | SP |
| Jeff Samardzija | 610.1 | SP |
| Greg Holland | 607.5 | RP |
| Gio Gonzalez | 607.1 | SP |
| Ian Kinsler | 606 | 2B |
| Ervin Santana | 603 | SP |
| Julio Teheran | 601.6 | SP |
| Chase Utley | 599.5 | 2B |
| Anthony Rizzo | 598.5 | 1B |
| Kyle Seager | 597 | 3B |
| Allen Craig | 596.5 | RF |
| Jayson Werth | 596 | RF |
| Doug Fister | 594.6 | SP |
| Brandon Phillips | 594.5 | 2B |
| Michael Cuddyer | 592.5 | RF |
| Mark Trumbo | 591.5 | RF |
| Ricky Nolasco | 591.4 | SP |
| Billy Butler | 589.5 | DH |
| Zack Greinke | 589.1 | SP |
| Evan Longoria | 588.5 | 3B |
| Alexei Ramirez | 587.5 | SS |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 586.5 | 1B |
| Manny Machado | 586 | 3B |
| Torii Hunter | 585 | RF |
| Alex Gordon | 584.5 | LF |
| Domonic Brown | 584 | LF |
| Jose Quintana | 584 | SP |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 581.5 | CF |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | 581.5 | SP |
| CC Sabathia | 579 | SP |
| David Price | 578.1 | SP |
| Kris Medlen | 577 | SP |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 576.1 | SP |
| Michael Brantley | 575.5 | LF |
| Nick Markakis | 572 | RF |
| Bartolo Colon | 569.9 | SP |
| Kendrys Morales | 567.5 | DH |
| Yadier Molina | 567 | C |
| Shelby Miller | 565.9 | SP |
| Tim Lincecum | 564.6 | SP |
| Hiroki Kuroda | 563.4 | SP |
| Shane Victorino | 559 | RF |
| Desmond Jennings | 558.5 | CF |
| John Lackey | 555.4 | SP |
| Bronson Arroyo | 552 | SP |
| David Wright | 548 | 3B |
| Jean Segura | 547 | SS |
| Joe Nathan | 540.6 | RP |
| Jason Kipnis | 540 | 2B |
| Pablo Sandoval | 539.5 | 3B |
| Jarrod Parker | 539.5 | SP |
| Matt Cain | 539.4 | SP |
| Bryce Harper | 539 | LF |
| Francisco Liriano | 539 | SP |
| Travis Wood | 539 | SP |
| Kyle Lohse | 538.6 | SP |
| Dillon Gee | 536.5 | SP |
| Carlos Gomez | 535 | CF |
| James Loney | 531.5 | 1B |
| Adam Lind | 531.5 | 1B |
| Mark Buehrle | 530.1 | SP |
| Mike Leake | 529.9 | SP |
| Wade Miley | 528.6 | SP |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 528 | LF |
| Alejandro De Aza | 527.5 | OF |
| Daniel Nava | 526.5 | RF |
| Justin Upton | 526 | RF |
| Denard Span | 522 | CF |
| Jhoulys Chacin | 521.4 | SP |
| Rick Porcello | 521 | SP |
| Eric Stults | 518.6 | SP |
| Nick Swisher | 516.5 | LF |
| Ian Desmond | 516.5 | SS |
| Brandon Belt | 516 | 1B |
| Aroldis Chapman | 514.6 | RP |
| Nate McLouth | 509 | OF |
| Brian Dozier | 508 | 2B |
| Erick Aybar | 505 | SS |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 504 | LF |
| Jimmy Rollins | 503 | SS |
| Kenley Jansen | 502.6 | RP |
| Jon Jay | 502.5 | CF |
| Hanley Ramirez | 501.5 | LF |
| Andrew Cashner | 500.5 | SP |
| Scott Feldman | 500.1 | SP |
| Alberto Callaspo | 498 | 3B |
| Matt Moore | 497.4 | SP |
| Dan Haren | 497.1 | SP |
| Austin Jackson | 496 | CF |
| Matt Dominguez | 493.5 | OF |
| Jeremy Guthrie | 492.1 | SP |
| Scott Kazmir | 489.5 | SP |
| Yovani Gallardo | 489.1 | SP |
| Mike Napoli | 488 | 1B |
| Justin Morneau | 485.5 | 1B |
| Adam LaRoche | 485.5 | 1B |
| Ian Kennedy | 483.9 | SP |
| Matt Wieters | 483.5 | C |
| Alex Cobb | 483.4 | SP |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 483 | SS |
| Ernesto Frieri | 482.1 | RP |
| Glen Perkins | 480.1 | RP |
| Joe Mauer | 479.5 | 1B |
| Brett Gardner | 477 | CF |
| Matt Garza | 476.9 | SP |
| Addison Reed | 476.4 | RP |
| Jim Johnson | 475.9 | RP |
| Josh Hamilton | 475.5 | RF |
| Koji Uehara | 474.9 | RP |
| Jeremy Hellickson | 474.5 | SP |
| Andre Ethier | 474.5 | RF |
| Corey Kluber | 473.4 | SP |
| Miguel Gonzalez | 472.4 | SP |
| Salvador Perez | 472 | C |
| Gerardo Parra | 472 | LF |
| Jake Peavy | 466.6 | SP |
| Jered Weaver | 458.9 | SP |
| Jorge De | 458.1 | SP |
| Rafael Soriano | 457.1 | RP |
| Tommy Milone | 454.4 | SP |
| Felix Doubront | 452.9 | SP |
| Steve Cishek | 452.1 | RP |
| Grant Balfour | 448.6 | RP |
| Bud Norris | 444.1 | SP |
| Fernando Rodney | 440.1 | RP |
| Edward Mujica | 439.6 | RP |
| Dan Straily | 435.4 | SP |
| Jeff Locke | 429.4 | SP |
| Wily Peralta | 426.9 | SP |
| Marco Estrada | 423.5 | SP |
| Sergio Romo | 422.9 | RP |
While there are more hitters than pitchers in these lists, that is to be expected. What’s important to notice is that there is a fair amount of pitchers weaved into the top 25. In 2015 eight of the top 25 are starting pitchers, including the top overall point scorer, Clayton Kershaw (909.6 points). The average number of points for the top 25 hitters is 618 points and it’s 607 for starting pitchers. In 2014 there are ten starters in the top 25. This season a hitter, Victor Martinez, leads the way with 864 points. The average for the top 25 hitters was 718 points. For the top 25 pitchers it was 633. And finally in 2013 there were again eight starting pitchers in the top 25. The average for the top 25 pitchers was 695 as compared to 726 for hitters.
Fairness and balance achieved. Now this is a scoring system I can get behind. Heck that’s just what I am doing. I expect to be starting a new points league this season and will likely open it up to you commenters. More details to following in the next week or so. It’s time to start pointing in the right direction…
What rankings would you use for a league that has 10 pitching and 10 hitting categories, and your win loss total is based on the number of categories you win or lose? Stats doing have points assisgned, just accumulate and help you either win or lose a category.
@Nick: I’d have to play around with that one for a bit until I found something I was happy with, but aren’t you just talking about a 10×10 head-to-head roto league?
You’re wrong about HBP. See Shin Soo Choo. The point is to reward getting on base and penalize making outs, no matter how. A strikeout is still an out, just a like a flyout or a groundout, so you get -1. Making contact doesn’t make a difference. IRL a GIDP might be the works type of out, but it’s still a matter of circumstance, like an RBI.
@LoveDaHBP: Yes, I understand the principle, I just can’t get fully behind it. Personally I think a strikeout is worse than a flyout or a groundout. It’s my opinion that making contact should count for “something”. But as I started that last sentence, that is just my opinion…
interesting stuff. I might put in your 2015 rankings into my next War Room version this weekend, for people (like myself) who might like to sort it on points.
@JimmyBond: that would be awesome! I want!
@Schlurricane: I’m on it!!!
@malamoney: sweet!
@JimmyBond: I am currently working on my projections and rankings for this season. I will be providing an Excel spreadsheet that will allow readers to adjust the scoring system to match their league and it will automatically update the projections and rankings…
@malamoney: I’m looking forward for your rankings and being able to adjust according to our own league’s scoring system… It has been hard to find something like that without having to pay quite a bit of $$$ for it…
Thanks Malamoney! Last year your “points leagues” articles helped me a lot.
@RicoSuave: Glad I can help. No charge here…
@malamoney: Love it, I hope you can make this happen. Being in a points league all rankings and mocks are almost meaningless. My league has a similar scoring system. We also adjusted, top pitchers still put up more points than hitters but it’s pretty balanced after that. Great article
BATTING
1B Singles 1 point
2B Doubles 2 points
3B Triples 3 points
BB Walks (Batters) 1 point
CS Caught Stealing -3 points
CYC Hitting for the Cycle 25 points
GDP Ground Into Double Plays -1 point
HP Hit by Pitch 1 point
HR Home Runs 4 points
KO Strikeouts (Batter) -1 point
R Runs 1 point
RBI Runs Batted In 1 point
SB Stolen Bases 3 points
PITCHING
BBI Walks Issued (Pitchers) -0.5 points
BS Blown Saves -2 points
CG Complete Games 10 points
ER Earned Runs -1 point
HA Hits Allowed -0.5 points
HB Hit Batsmen -0.5 points
K Strikeouts (Pitcher) 1 point
L Losses -5 points
NH No-Hitters 25 points
OUTS Outs 0.5 points
PG Perfect Games 10 points
QS Quality Starts 3 points
S Saves 7 points
SO Shutouts 10 points
W Wins 7 points
@Charles In Charge: Thanks Scott Baio. I think I can make it happen…
@malamoney: good god, if only i get me some excelling (haha) i’ll save dozens of hours here.
@The Harrow: Let me know how I can save you dozens of hours and I will see what I can do…
Man, oh man. I’m in a 21 year old league (I’m on my 6th campaign in it) and we have some pretty wacky scoring. Win is 15, quality start is 10. Saves? 13. HOLDS? 12 —— because they’re the same thing, just an inning or two earlier. No points for IP, just +1 per K and -1 per walk. It is so weird.
Additionally 1 point for a SB and we do not penalize Ks for batters so we are hugely skewed toward power hitters. I have yet to find a reliable mix, but to put things in perspective, our top 5 pitchers last year went Kershaw, Scherzer, Kimbrel, Melancon, Kenley Jansen.
So I guess this year I am punting SP and going for closers/SETUP men because why not? I cannot see a reason not to, esp consider we have roto sized rosters and I have a lot of hitter slots to fill.
@jake: Anytime you can punt on a position, that means the scoring system is out of whack…
Thanks for the great write up.
The pitching values in my points league are…W(+10), L(-5), S(+5), BS(-2), IP(+3), K(+1), ER(-2), BB(-1), H(-1) With 9 pitching slots and a 10 start max. per week. Would you draft only SP’s ? or would you draft only RP’s ? or some combination of SP’s & RP’s. If it makes any difference we have 12 hitting slots and 5 bench slots. (no keepers)
@IW-Dave: I would expect the first round of your draft to be mostly starting pitchers. I would expect the second round to be more pitchers than hitters. I’d likely take 2 starters and then 2 bats. Or maybe an SP, then bat, then SP, then bat, but I’d be ready to roll with the punches. The key to any draft/auction is to generate your own rankings based on your league settings draft the best player available based on your rankings. I’m not drafting an RP until at least the 10th round.
are you able to share your spreadsheet that derived the Top 200? It would be interesting to try and tweak it to make a version that people could plug in their league settings for points as user inputs, and have it spit out the ranked list, based on 2015 stats. and then incorporate that into a war room sheet.
@JimmyBond: I will be providing this either next week or the week after. I am in the process of generating my projections and rankings. There will be a spreadsheet that allows readers to adjust the scoring system which will automatically adjust the rankings…
@malamoney: awesome thanks. when it’s out I might tie it into my War Room spreadsheet if that’s okay (if time permits too!)
@Jimmy Bond: Of course…
Really enjoyed this article. I do both points and roto and you’re right, to use roto rankings in a points league is crazy talk.
In my points league we want there to be more pitchers than hitters in the top grouping because (as you said) more hitters are started in each team’s lineup. We believe our scoring balances out the 5 SP we require vs. the 9 batters. Our league has 16 teams, so there’s a premium on starters with 80 of them in lineups each week.
The main issue with your scoring system is not including quality starts. For years we had wins as 10 points and losses as -5, a few years ago we made wins only 5, reduced losses to -3 but made the QS worth 7.5. We don’t believe wins should be removed entirely, but as you mention so much is out of the control of the pitcher, whereas the QS (even if the standard is a tad low) is on him to go the required 6 innings and not give up 4 earned runs.
Thanks again for the great read.
@The Prince of Soul Glo:Thanks. I went back and forth on quality starts. The problem is that I don’t think 6 innings and 3 runs is a quality start. A 4.50 ERA is not good.
But… I could possibly see lowering wins to say 3 points and making QS 2 points. Or something like that. Maybe even 2.5 each, but I need to think about this some more. I wish a QS was 6IP and 2ER or 7IP and 3ER…
@malamoney: Agreed, the word quality is being used incorrectly with those requirements, but at least it’s something that the pitcher has more control over than the win or loss.
@The Prince of Soul Glo: Then it makes more sense to adjust points for IP and ER as those are the two basic elements that make up a QS…
I’m in two different leagues, both of which use almost identical scoring. Big differences between your list and mine is we count GIDP – which I think is a great negative to have, as well as HOLDS which I’m surprised you didn’t list. Gives non-closers a chance to be roster’d & can come in handy in daily lineups.
Other than that we give bonus points for Cycles, Grand Salamis, CG’s, Shutouts & Perfect Games. Just some fun statistics to have. Unless you face a CG No Hitter and you get 70 points dropped on you in a single start.
By our lists Top 5 players in order were Arrieta, Kershaw, Harper, Donaldson & Goldschmidt. Seems ok to me.
Love the article, and love points leagues.
@Rycisko: Thanks Rycisko. GIDP are situational. They are groundouts with men on base. They suck and kill innings, but I didn’t feel the need to add them. As for holds, I am good with adding holds. I would give them them the save number of points as a save. But by doing this all we are really doing in increasing the RP player pool. When you have a 12-team league with two lineup spots for RP, that means that 24 RP have to be started. If you don’t give points to holds, then that means that only closers will be viable options for RP. With only 24 needed (ignoring backups), we really don’t want more than closers in the list. If we expand to include setup guys, then there are way more players available than needed. When there are too many viable options on the wire at a position, then that position in your lineup becomes less important. If you can just grab a guy off the wire, then what’s the point in working hard to get a good guy. If you want to reward holds then you have to require teams to start 4 RP.
I neglected to mention in the post, but I am cool with bonus points. But I don’t factor them into the primary equation. Actually I think bonus points should be required. It makes things more fun for sure…
This is a great post malamoney. My league’s scoring is pretty out of whack and I’ve been pushing for change for a few years. I am forwarding this post to the league. I like this system. Let me know about that league you might be starting. I’m interested. Thanks.
@Jason Morgan: Thanks Jason Morgon. Hopefully I will be able to help sway your league mates. I will keep you and everyone else posted…
Hey,
Thanks for the write up. I’m curious how cut and dry you tend to be with points league drafts. My league is a bit imbalanced as well. 7 pitchers outscored the top scoring position player (Arrieta 796pts to Harpers 610!). Do you advise drafting to the league scoring rules pretty strictly? I have the 3rd pick this year and I’ll have Trout, Harper, Kershaw, Sale, Scherzer on the board to start the draft. It’s a keeper league and those guys can’t be kept. I just feel like ill have a really hard time passing on Harper or Trout to draft Scherzer or Sale assuming Kershaw is the first pick. It’s an 18 team league so its gonna be a while until my 2nd round pick…
Thanks!
@Johnny on the Spot: I try and select the best player available when it’s my turn. That’s generally the player that is going to get my starting lineup the most points. However you have to keep in mind what passing on a player will mean. If Jake Arrieta is available and he is projected to get more points than say Manny Machado, but by passing on Machado you will end up with no better than Mike Moustakas, then you have to take Machado. That was just an example.
I would be taking Kershaw first and then Scherzer. Then probably Bumgarner, Sale, Price before a bat. I am likely taking both Harper and Goldschmidt before Trout. In leagues skewed towards pitching I also leaning toward Felix and Greinke too..
Well reasoned with the exception of losses. One of the most arbitrary stats out there and it makes the points swings too extreme when a pitcher gets shelled.
@Manley Ramirez: Are you saying you don’t think losses should result in negative points?
@malamoney: They should not result in anything because they are arbitrary. Simply remove them as a stat forever more.
@malamoney: Blown saves need to stay in to mitigate closers getting too many points when they blow a save but get the cheap win.
But what good are losses? If the guy gets shelled, he’s going to have a poor point total as is, possibly negative. You are making the impact exponential. On the flip side if he pitches well and get stuck with a tough luck loss, well now you are penalizing unfairly.
@Manley Ramirez: Not a bad explanation. But if I am getting rid of losses, wins must go to. I can certainly see the reasoning, but am not ready to commit…
@malamoney: I will not rest until Losses are exterminated from the fantasy landscape.
@Manley Ramirez: No sleep till…
Thanks Malamoney for the great article!
I’m in a 14 team H2H points league C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, 1 Util, 5 SP and 3 RP – also, 5 bench spots.
Scoring system is like this:
HITTING
1B Singles 1 point
2B Doubles 2 points
3B Triples 3 points
BB Walks (Batters) 1 point
CS Caught Stealing -1 point
CYC Hitting for the Cycle 3 points
HP Hit by Pitch 1 point
HR Home Runs 4 points
KO Strikeouts (Batter) -0.5 points
R Runs 1 point
RBI Runs Batted In 1 point
SB Stolen Bases 2 points
PITCHING
BBI Walks Issued (Pitchers) -1 point
BS Blown Saves -1 point
CG Complete Games 3 points
ER Earned Runs -1 point
HA Hits Allowed -1 point
HB Hit Batsmen -1 point
HD Holds 2 points
INN Innings 3 points
K Strikeouts (Pitcher) 0.5 points
L Losses -3 points
QS Quality Starts 3 points
S Saves 5 points
W Wins 5 points
I position 14 in my draft (snake draft) What draft strategy would you recommend?
Thanks again and looking forward to reading your articles during the 2016 season!
Cheers
@RicoSuave: That’s a pretty crappy draft spot. Once I have my projections complete I will have an idea of who I think you should target based on who I expect to be available. When’s your draft?
@malamoney: My draft starts March 11 and for the first 5 rounds or so, each team has 3 hours to make their pick (it’s done to accelerate the real draft day which is March 20 and to accomodate guys work schedules) so, I might be bugging you while drafting…
Thanks again.
@RicoSuave: I’ll be happy to help!
Great read man. I always enjoy me some Pts leagues.
Check the point system out I am using in my 12 team 27 man roster season pts league. High scoring and gives value to a well rounded amount of players. My fav part is that it makes you pay for making for starting guys on their bad starts.
Batting
Total Bases: 2
Runs Scored: 1.5
Runs Batted In: 1.5
Walks: 1
Strikeouts: -0.75
Stolen Bases: 4
Pitching
Innings Pitched: 3
Earned Runs: -5
Strikeouts: 4
Hits Allowed: -1.5
Walks Issued: -1.5
Wins:10
Losses:: -6
Saves: 8
@theone: Pretty interesting. I’ll have to plug that in an see what it produces. Thanks for sharing…
@malamoney:
I also figured the less noise the better. I feel like a lot of pts leagues add way too many pointless stats.
Oh and Holds are 6pts
@theone: Top ten hitters:
Josh Donaldson 1068.75
Paul Goldschmidt 1054.25
Bryce Harper 1051.25
A.J. Pollock 1028.75
Nolan Arenado 1008
Mike Trout 986.5
Manny Machado 984.75
Jose Bautista 977.5
Anthony Rizzo 959.75
Yoenis Cespedes 950.25
Top ten pitchers:
Clayton Kershaw 1437.6
Jake Arrieta 1293
Max Scherzer 1188.1
Zack Greinke 1153.1
David Price 1055.4
Chris Sale 1050.6
Dallas Keuchel 1038
Madison Bumgarner 1031.9
Chris Archer 944.5
Jacob deGrom 934.5
Not a bad result. All the right players. Kershaw’s point total is a little out of proportion, but he did have a great season. Funny thing is that preseason last year I was telling everyone that Kershaw should be the top pick in points leagues and a lot of people told me I was crazy. Well no matter what scoring system I use the results say he was the best.
I run a 12 team H2H Points league
TB: 1, Runs 1, RBI 1, XBH .25, HBP .25, SB 2, CS -1, GS 1, CYC 5, BB 1, K -.5, GIDP -1
W 9, L -3, QS 3, ER -1, K 1, BB -.5, GIDP 1, Outs .3, Hits -.3, Saves 7, BS -2, CG 1, SHO 1, NH 5, PG 10
Thoughts?
@Eric: Answered below…
Very interesting article Malamoney, I quietly admire your points league work, it’s good stuff and this has got me thinking.
I’ve run a points for awhile now and for a long time I had a hang-up about making the top scoring pitcher and the top scoring hitter come about about equal. This lead to some pretty skewed scoring systems that I didn’t care for much. Too much emphasis on Ks and Ws. Most of this was my own fault for not getting the numbers just right, but finally I threw my hands up and redid the points entirely. I’m a big DFS guy and I really liked how some of the sites scoring shook out so upon scraping my league settings I based my new settings around DFS scoring. I liked how the scoring worked but the highest scoring pitcher last season (Kershaw) was outscored by 30 or so hitters. Harper was around 560 and Kershaw around 400.
Here’s how I figured things though and tell me if I’m way off base here. Everyone needs pitchers in the league, those are roster spots to fill and I draft my points leagues not based off who will score me the most points per se, but I use Value Based Drafting to create my rankings. Knowing everyone will have about 9 starters, when you sort by VBD, Kershaw checked in at #9. So, even though he may score you less points than Eric Hosmer, he’s going to score a lot more points than the league average SP would vs. Hosmer not scoring a ton more than the league average 1B. That’s how I reasoned this in my head anyway.
After all that though, upon reading this I figured there were a few tweaks I could make and I upped pitcher wins a smidge and upped Ks a tick so now, based on last year’s numbers Kershaw would be #8 sorted by points. I don’t think the tweaks I made skew anything too much either, so that’s good. I’ll be curious once I crunch the numbers how the VBD rankings will sort out, but I imagine SPs will get a slight boost. It might bring their points rankings closer to their VBD rankings which may actually eliminate some of my draft day advantage, but if it makes for a better league overall, c’est la vie.
Have you considered using VBD to create your rankings at all? Just curious and love nerding out in discussing this stuff.
yes, a spreadsheet that I can use to put my points league settings in would be great – for me
batters
(1pt for 1B, 2pts for 2B, 3pts for 3B, 4pts for HR, 1pt for RBI, 1pt for R, 1pt for BB, 1pt for SB)
picthers
(15pts for a W, 7pts for a save, 1pt for a SO)
have the following positions
C,1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3OF, 1U
7 pitchers (any combination of reliever or SP)
I don’t have any negative pts so my batters really end up scoring more pts in this system. A Chris davis is valuable because I don’t care if he SO’s a ton as long as he is hitting bombs! the middle of the order guys can really produce pts. So what do you think? will your rankings be a combination of Grey’s and yours? or will your rankings take into account just standard pts leagues? its been hard finding a ranking that takes into account my settings – it has been suggested that I used OPS razball rankings. However, I do not like catchers and it says posey is the 12th ranked player. I know you like posey and scarcity but I go with most points position player available. Catchers are really a dime a dozen… So I cant really get behind that OPS rankings
@Blake: My rankings will be based only on the points. The spreadsheet will allow you to adjust the scoring to your league’s system. This will automatically re-rank the players allowing you ranking specific to your league. I plan to have this ready in two weeks. I am still working on my projections and underlying database…
@malamoney:
Would also really help if ADP is put in there too so as to know maybe what your leaguemates might do
@Blake: It will certainly be there. I will likely have a whole post about beating ADP. What I like to do is rank all the players based on my league’s settings. Then based on pure rankings you can figure out what round/pick a player should be taken. Then I compare my ranking with where they are actually being taken (ADP) and figure out which guys are not worth the pick because they are being taken much earlier than I have them ranked and which one are steals because I have them ranked higher than their ADP. This is one reason I owned Hosmer in every points league I was in last year…
@malamoney:
my pts league has settings that is a little different than your setttings. will your analysis of where players should be ranked will be based on your pts league settings? or just projections of stats?
@Blake:
for instance – I followed Grey’s tiers for pitchers and didn’t draft a pitcher until the 6th round. I ended up being 2nd in my league. So, I am going to do the same thing this year as I found that Gerrit cole and down seem to have almost comparable stats to the big names
@Blake: There are many strategies for drafting. It also depends on how everyone else in your league drafts…
@Blake: My analysis will be based on my point system, but I will provide an Excel spreadsheet with a worksheet that will allow you to change the point values for each category. Doing so will update the rest of the spreadsheet automatically generating rankings for your settings. At least that’s the plan…
@malamoney:
would be to have your spreadsheet like the war room one – love the idea of using the spreadsheet in my actual draft and being able to put players on people’s teams to show whats left and what each team has
@Blake: I will do my best to make that happen…
I use the Ottoneu points system and your totals are not correct per player. The leagues were very pitching very last year.
@Anthony: Do you have 1759.18 for Kershaw?
Hey, again thanks for the write up. Great stuff!
What do you think of my leagues scoring format? Do you see any areas that could be easily exploited?
Hitting
1B Singles 1 point
2B Doubles 2 points
3B Triples 3 points
BB Walks (Batters) 1 point
CSC Caught Stealing by Catcher 1 point
DPT Double Plays Turned .5 points
E Errors -1 point
GDP Ground Into Double Plays -1 point
HP Hit by Pitch 1 point
HR Home Runs 4 points
KO Strikeouts (Batter) -.5 points
OFAST OF Assists 1 point
PBC Passed Balls by Catcher -1 point
R Runs 1 point
RBI Runs Batted In 1 point
SB-CS Stolen Bases – Caught Stealing 1 point
SF Sacrifice Flies .5 points
SH Sacrifice Hits .5 points
Pitching
B Balks -1 point
BBI Walks Issued (Pitchers) -1 point
BS Blown Saves -3 points
CG Complete Games 5 points
ER Earned Runs -2 points
HA Hits Allowed -1 point
HB Hit Batsmen -1 point
HD Holds 3 points
INN Innings 3 points
K Strikeouts (Pitcher) 0.5 points
PKO Pick Offs 1 point
QS Quality Starts 5 points
S Saves 5 points
SO Shutouts 5 points
W Wins 5 points
WP Wild Pitches -1 point
Thanks!
Thanks. It seems to favor hitters over pitchers. There are a few too many categories for my liking. I hate seeing QS because I just don’t think a 4.50 ERA is quality. You reward a win, but ignore a loss. I’m not a fan of penalizing for GIDP a full point. GIDP are situational. It’s just a groundout that happens to have a runner on first. But I do like that you are countering the negative with SF an SH.
But that’s just my opinion. I think the most important part of creating a points scoring system is being able to justify why you giving or taking points for a particular stat and why you picked the value you have chosen.
I read your article, “Pocketful of Posey,” on the drop off in Catcher after Posey not being as big this year because of the emergence of Schwarber. I loved the article, and I’m interested in hearing your thoughts on if your position has changed on Posey due to the Fowler signing potentially negatively impacting Schwarber’s playing time/opportunities.
Thanks!
@Baseball Fan 2000: Also, approximately what round would you value Posey in standard 5×5 Roto and head to head points leagues (10 team).
@Baseball Fan 2000: For the 5×5 roto question I would seek the advice of Grey. As for the H2H points league I will have that answer for you in more detail in the next 2 weeks. But if I had to give an answer right now I’d say about the 4th round, but could see him being snagged in the 3rd…
@malamoney: That’s what i was thinking as well somewhere in the 30s! Thanks
@Baseball Fan 2000: Maybe a small tick. I still think you will plenty of Schwarber this season. He will see most of his time in left and some time behind the plate. I plan to address this situation in the coming weeks as I get an idea of each player’s ADP, but I need there to be some more mock and real drafts before I can do that. So I think Schwarber’s PT will take a hit, but it should be a very small one…
@malamoney: Thanks for your input!
@Baseball Fan 2000: Any time!
Hey great article! I’m in a points league with a ton of bonuses. For example, this is what RBI’s look like..
CalculatePerGame, Cumulative:
From 1 to 4, award 5point(s) for every4RBI
From 1 to 6, award 10point(s) for every6RBI
From 1 to 8, award 15point(s) for every8RBI
From 1 to 10, award 20point(s) for every10RBI
From 1 to 99, award 1point(s) for every1RBI
You get 1 point for every RBI at then when you hit the specific tier you get the bonus. Do you have any tip for me on coming up with a good projection/ranking for this? The tiers are at almost every hitter category and pitcher k’s.
@Bill: Thanks! Let me make sure I understand this correctly. If you get 10 RBIs you get 30 points? One point for each RBI and then a 20 point bonus?
@malamoney: Correct. Similar tiers like that for almost every hitter category and pitcher k’s
@Bill: Send me all the tiers and I’ll see what I can come up with. No promises, but I’d be happy to play around.
Are these bonuses “per player”. So if one player gets 10 RBIs in a week he gets his points (including bonus). And if another player gets 6 RBIs he gets his points plus bonus. Or is it a total roster RBI thing?
The bonuses are based on a per game basis.
Hitting Scoring:
Caught Stealing (CS)
CalculatePerGame, Cumulative:
From 1 to 99, award -4point(s) for every1CS
Doubles (2B)
CalculatePerGame, Cumulative:
From 1 to 2, award 5point(s) for every22B
From 1 to 3, award 10point(s) for every32B
From 1 to 4, award 15point(s) for every42B
From 1 to 99, award 1point(s) for every12B
Errors (E)
-2
Grand Slams (Sl)
10
Hit By Pitches (HBP)
1
Hit For The Cycle (Cyc)
20
Hits (H)
CalculatePerGame, Cumulative:
From 1 to 4, award 5point(s) for every4H
From 1 to 5, award 10point(s) for every5H
From 1 to 6, award 15point(s) for every6H
From 1 to 99, award 1point(s) for every1H
Home Runs (HR)
CalculatePerGame, Cumulative:
From 1 to 2, award 5point(s) for every2HR
From 1 to 3, award 10point(s) for every3HR
From 1 to 4, award 15point(s) for every4HR
From 1 to 99, award 5point(s) for every1HR
Intentional Walks (IBB)
1
Picked Off (PKO)
-5
Runs Batted In (RBI)
CalculatePerGame, Cumulative:
From 1 to 4, award 5point(s) for every4RBI
From 1 to 6, award 10point(s) for every6RBI
From 1 to 8, award 15point(s) for every8RBI
From 1 to 10, award 20point(s) for every10RBI
From 1 to 99, award 1point(s) for every1RBI
Runs Scored (R)
1
Stolen Bases (SB)
CalculatePerGame, Cumulative:
From 1 to 2, award 5point(s) for every2SB
From 1 to 3, award 10point(s) for every3SB
From 1 to 4, award 15point(s) for every4SB
From 1 to 99, award 4point(s) for every1SB
Strikeouts (SO)
-1
Triples (3B)
CalculatePerGame, Cumulative:
From 1 to 2, award 10point(s) for every23B
From 1 to 3, award 15point(s) for every33B
From 1 to 99, award 2point(s) for every13B
Walks (BB)
CalculatePerGame, Cumulative:
From 1 to 4, award 5point(s) for every4BB
From 1 to 99, award 1point(s) for every1BB
Total Bases (TB)
0.25
Pitching Scoring:
Balks (Bk)
-5
Blown Saves (BS)
-7
Complete Games (CG)
20
Earned Runs Allowed (ER)
-1
Errors (E)
-2
Hit Batsmen (HB)
CalculatePerGame, Cumulative:
From 1 to 3, award -10point(s) for every3HB
From 1 to 4, award -15point(s) for every4HB
From 1 to 20, award -2point(s) for every1HB
Hits Allowed (H)
-1
Holds (Hld)
5
Losses (L)
-10
No Hitters (NH)
40
Perfect Games (PG)
50
Pickoffs (PKO)
CalculatePerGame, Cumulative:
From 1 to 2, award 5point(s) for every2PKO
From 1 to 3, award 10point(s) for every3PKO
From 1 to 10, award 5point(s) for every1PKO
Quality Starts (QS)
15
Saves (Sv)
10
Shutouts (ShO)
20
Strikeouts Pitched (K)
CalculatePerGame, Cumulative:
From 1 to 10, award 5point(s) for every10K
From 1 to 15, award 10point(s) for every15K
From 1 to 20, award 15point(s) for every20K
From 1 to 99, award 1point(s) for every1K
Walks Allowed (BB)
-1
Wins (W)
10
Modified Outs Recorded (MOR)
1
@Bill: Ok, so I have a few more questions because I am not quite certain I got this completely understood. Bear with me. When you say “CalculatePerGame”, define “game”. Is it the full week which is a typical fantasy game? Or an actual game? And is it per player? Or is it a total of all players. For example, at the end of the week do you add up all your pitchers strikeouts and then figure out what tier bonus you get? And lastly, how many points would you get for 30 pitching strikeout?
@malamoney: it’s per actual game and per player. If you got
30 strikeouts you would get 30 (1 for each strikeout) + the highest tiered bonus 15 (points for 20 strikeouts) = 45 points.
I’ve been running a Yahoo points league (total points, not head to head) for 15 years, occasionally tweaking for better results. My goals in setting up the system were:
* Reflect real baseball as much as possible (i.e. Players you think are good have high point totals. Players you think are the best have the highest totals). Every year my system is successful at predicting the top 3 MVPs in each league as well as the top 3 Cy Young pitchers (I keep pitchers out of my MVP predictions.) Unfortunately, it doesn’t predict MVP catchers–not the right stats available on Yahoo to give catchers enough points.
*Reflect real baseball rosters as much as possible. 23 player teams with 9 active batters (including a DH) 7 active pitchers, 2 must be SP, 2 must be RP. 1350 IP limit and RP score more points per IP than SP do. This forces managers who want the best results to have something like 5 or 6 SP and 5 RP. (Roughly, 5 SP at 200 IP each and 5 RP at 70 IP each = 1350 IP). Giving points for Holds allows filling out your RP roster with decent set up men.
*The best batters score about the same as the best pitchers.
*The top handful of players score about 1000 points.
Using the maximum number of stats Yahoo allows, I’ve arrived at:
Batters
At Bats (AB) -2
Runs (R) 2
Singles (1B) 7
Doubles (2B) 10
Triples (3B) 12
Home Runs (HR) 15
Runs Batted In (RBI) 2
Walks (BB) 2
Intentional Walks (IBB) -1
Hit By Pitch (HBP) 2
Strikeouts (K) -.5
Ground Into Double Play (GIDP) -3
Assists (A) .3
Errors (E) -5
Net Stolen Bases (NSB) 2
Pitchers
Innings Pitched (IP) 6.3
Wins (W) 12
Losses (L) -6
Hits (H) -1
Runs (R) -2
Earned Runs (ER) -2
Walks (BB) -1
Strikeouts (K) .5
Stolen Bases Allowed (SB) -2
Batters Grounded Into Double Plays (GIDP) 3
Holds (HLD) 2
Total Bases Allowed (TB) -1
Relief Wins (RW) -4
Inherited Runners Scored (IRA) -2
Net Saves (NSV) 5
Giving points for Assists helps to give middle infielders their due, since they don’t rack up the raw batting points OF or 1B do.
Some stats don’t look right until you see how they combine with others. For example
* A pitcher giving up a walk and a single are both -1 BUT when the single happens, the pitcher also gets -1 for one TB. So BB nets -1 while a single nets -2.
* An Earned Run allowed is really ER=-2 and R =-2 so -4 for allowing an Earned Run but only -2 for an Unearned Run.
* A RP shouldn’t score as much for a win as a starter hence SP winning gets 12 points. RP winning gets W=12 and RW=-4 for net 8 points.
* RP are also penalized for allowing inherited runners to score, but not as much as allowing an Earned Run.
* A batter who grounds out or flies out gets -2 for the AB. If he strikes out he gets AB=-2 and K=-0.5 for -2.5. If he hits into a DP he gets AB=-2 and GIDP=-3 for -5 net points.
* A batter who walks gets BB=2. If he gets an intional walk he gets BB=2 and IBB=-1 for 1 point.
2015 Top 6 Batters
Bryce Harper 1155.2
Paul Goldschmidt 1085.1
Josh Donaldson 1050.6
Joey Votto 991.2
Mike Trout 984.1
Nolan Arenado 927.5
2015 Top 6 Pitchers
Zack Greinke 1169.8
Jake Arrieta 1167.7
Clayton Kershaw 1099.3
Dallas Keuchel 1046.6
David Price 951.6
Madison Bumgarner 885.5
@JIm: What do you mean when you say your system is successful in predicting MVPs?
Not a bad system. Not my cup of tea, but well thought out and seems to produce the right final result. Great explanation. And that’s key. The fact that you can explain in detail why what results in how many points is the most important thing. Nice work.
A couple of things that stick out. -0.5 for a strikeout, but +2 for a walk? +12 for a win? I’m not a fan of dealing with fielding categories and don’t think middle infielders need a boost. It is fine that they are not as valuable as corner infielders. That’s just the way it is.
Thanks for sharing…
@malamoney:
Every year, at the end of the season, I post a commissioner’s note predicting the MVP and Cy Young winners for each league based on our point totals, listing the top 3 for each of the 4 awards. Usually the top 3 vote getters match the top 3 listed in my note. Often even in the correct order (fails for Catchers, see comments way below).
Last year NL MVP predicted Harper, Goldschmidt, Votto, 123 correctly
AL MVP predicted Donaldson, Trout 1,2 missed on #3 Cain
NL Cy Young predicted Greinke, Arrieta, Kersahaw 123 (Arrieta won in reality, but was only 2 points behind Greinke out of ~1160 by my system)
AL Cy Young predicted Kuechel, Price, Gray 123 correctly
One problem with random points systems is how to rank players, because most info out there is from ROTO which is poor at reflecting reality. (Come on, a SB is nowhere near as valuable as a HR.) I have graphed up a league’s worth of players and shown that, in general, my Points vs. OPS is fairly linear (if you adjust for plate appearances). {It should be–I set some of the points categories using partial derivatives of the Bill James RC formula.) So often you can get close to ranking players by just looking at OPS and playing time. You can reduce most of the remaining error by fudging guys up a little if they’re in a loaded lineup (R & RBI) and down in a poor one, or Up for batting top half of the order and Down for lower half. An exception will be with middle infielders, who will not be right on the OPS line because 15-20% of their points come from fielding, but as long as you rank them against each other the Assist points tend to even out.
In addition to setting the system so the top players score about 1000 points, I have set it so a MLB replacement level player scores around Zero. In a 12 team mixed league, waiver wire level replacement players will still score around 300 points except RP will score around 150 to 200 depending on IP.
A batter doesn’t get JUST -0.5 for striking out–he gets -2.5 (-2 from the AB). Remember, some events result in points from multiple categories.
Middle infielders have won MVP awards. They certainly CAN be as valuable IN REAL BASEBALL as other positions. In order to reflect this in points I give them a boost from fielding. Remember, my goal is to make the results look like real baseball. A scoring system is bad if an MVP doesn’t show up at or near the top of the point totals.
My only problem getting MVP=>top points to work is with Catchers. My system could not properly award Posey and Mauer when they did it To make the points work for catchers, I would like to award +1 per game started at Catcher. Unfortunately, that option is not available in Yahoo. If it was, it would also reduce the loop hole of using players who are in the OF, DH, or 1B and still qualify at catcher from the previous year. In a way, the Assist points also do that for an OF who “qualifies” at middle infield–when he moves to the OF he loses some of his real value and that is reflected in losing the points previously earned from Assists.
Errors take points away from fielders because errors are bad. A good hitting SS who makes a lot of errors is not as valuable as one who also fields well. Why shouldn’t the scoring system reflect that? Remember, my goal is “If a player is generally considered good (or bad) it should be reflected in his points.” If you are a fan of baseball, you can still draft under this system simply by taking “good” players. Nobody is going to draft Billy Hamilton using this system. In 2015 he scored 172 points in 412 AB. He belongs on the waiver wire in any league that pretends to mimic real baseball. In real life, he’s going to have to get better to stay in the major leagues.
As for +12 for a win, remember there is also -6 for a loss. Plus, winning a game where the pitcher pitched poorly still results in a low amount of points because of all the other negatives. Wins are not the best metric for measuring true talent, but they still mean something and this point system is very accurate at predicting Cy Young awards as shown in the first paragraph.
All points/categories are listed in my previous post. It is very easy to open a dummy private league at yahoo and enter them. Then you can see how every player did for the last couple years with this system and judge for yourself if it is accurate.
Jim