Here’s what I know about projections, they’re guaranteed to be mostly wrong with a handful of unpredictable close calls. That’s probably the most accurate projection I’m about to make, which is not quite the ringing self-endorsement one my expect to read in the introduction paragraph for a 2017 fantasy baseball projections post. Let’s be honest with ourselves, projections are bullshit. They’re little more than slightly educated guesses. This is not meant to take anything away from the hard work and resulting labors of love bestowed upon us by very smart statisticians and baseball analysts, but at the end of the day, I almost feel like the projections-hungry fantasy baseball population would be better off without them. Having just written that sentence I find it extremely ironic considering I am about to release my projections in just a few moments. I think they call that the pot calling the kettle black. Maybe the pot is just racist. Did anyone ever consider that the kettle might have started the name calling? Was it Tim Lincecum’s pot?

Before we dive into the numbers, allow myself to tell you a little bit about my projections process. I considered taking 2016 stats and multiplying each individual stat by a random value between 0.85 and 1.15 and calling it a day. However, after some serious contemplation I thought you all deserved at least a little better than that. But how much better? Would some other variance of a random number generator and previous season’s statistics suffice? The real answer is absolutely, but I would have felt very dirty doing so.

Instead of resorting to gimmicks and trickery, I took a different approach. Using complex formulas, advanced algorithms and a magic eight ball, I compiled my own personal set of estimations (aka projections). Did I stop there? No I did not. And here’s why. I’d be a fool to believe that my computer generated projections were any better (or worse) than the next. Even if I did have a really ingenious approach to calculating projections, there are still far too many variables and moving parts to the process that would certainly normalize the results and relinquish much of the advantage.

In order to deal with this I decided to level the playing field myself. To do this I took my projections, along with ten other sets of projections (from trusted sources) and averaged them all together. Then I took those averaged projections and averaged them again with my original projections, giving my work a bit more weight. After a little hocus pocus and an alakazam, I had my final 2017 player estimates.

Before I explain how to use my estimates, I’d like to point out a few highlights from within.

Nolan Arenado will lead the league with 38 home runs, falling two short of his third consecutive 40 homer season. I actually believe this projection for Arenado except I think someone will hit more than 40. As a matter of fact I am quite certain of it. The last time there wasn’t a hitter with at least 40 home runs was back in 1982, when Reggie Jackson and Gorman Thomas led the league with 39.

Jose Altuve will lead the league with 198 hits and secure his forth consecutive American League hits title. He will still be three short of Ichiro Suzuki’s seven (not consecutive). Throw in 32 stolen bases, 17 home runs and 96 runs scored and Altuve is looking at another MVP caliber season.

With 58 stolen bases Billy Hamilton will win his first base stealing title, stealing at least ten more bags than Jonathan Villar and Dee Gordon.

Chris Davis (201) and Miguel Sano (199) will run away with the top strikeout spots.

As for pitching, Clayton Kershaw will lead all pitchers with 237 punch outs. Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner and Corey Kluber will be right behind him. In general, expect Kershaw to be the best pitcher once again this season.

You will find the aforementioned estimates by clicking the link at the end of this post. This will download an Excel spreadsheet containing said estimates. Within the spreadsheet you will find five worksheets. The “Hitters” and “Pitchers” worksheets contain the actual player projections. The “Players” sheet combines both hitters and pitchers, but only displays player name, projected points and eligible positions.

As in years past, the spreadsheet is customizable to match your league’s scoring system. Since nearly every points league has a different points distribution across statistical categories, a spreadsheet that did not allow such flexibility would be practically useless.

The last two worksheets “Points System” and “Scoring Systems” are responsible for this functionality. The spreadsheet comes preconfigured with the default scoring systems for all of the major sites. These include CBS, ESPN, Yahoo, Fantrax and Fox. I have also included the scoring system developed by me (malamoneyball). There is even a proposed hybrid version which factors in all of these systems. Lastly, users are able to define three separate custom scoring systems. This is where you would enter you league’s specific values. This can all be found in the “Scoring Systems” sheet. The “Points System” provides a dropdown (cell A23) allowing the user to select a scoring system. It will also display the current point values for each category based on the current selection. When you select a scoring system, the estimated points for every player will automagically update. The only thing you will have to do is re-sort the FPTS column in descending order. That’s it.

Please note that most of the fields within the “Scoring Systems” and “Points Systems” worksheets have been locked to prevent users from changing them. This is for your own good as they do not need to be changed. You can set up to three custom scoring systems and you can change the selected scoring system. That’s all you should need to do.

Projections can be dangerous, so tread lightly. And remember, pimpin’ ain’t easy.

A good forecaster is not smarter than everyone else, he merely has his ignorance better organised.” -Anonymous

2017 Fantasy Baseball Estimations

 

 

Follow me on Twitter at @malamoney as I plan to be more engaged in social media this season.

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You Know Nothing, J.T. Snow
You Know Nothing, J.T. Snow
5 years ago

1B: 1
2B: 2
3B: 3
HR: 4
TB: 1
BB: 1
K: -1
R: 1
RBI: 1
HBP: 0.5
GIDP: -0.5
SB: 1
CS: -1

Pitching:
W: 5
L: -5
QS: 3
IP: 3
ER: -2
HA: -1
BBA: -1
K: 1
SV: 5
BS: -5
HLD: 3
CG: 5
SO: 5

My other 3 keepers are Donaldson, Seager, and McCullers. Pitching in the draft is usually taken very early and everyone else except me values pitchers pretty high. I’m worried about Price starting the season on the DL. I figure there’s a decent chance at Verlander or Darvish at keeper pick 6 and if by chance they aren’t there, I’m getting a very solid hitter and then taking someone like CMart/Tanaka/Degrom with my 5th round pick or 6th round pick. If the latter happens, I figure I’ll just have to focus on pitching a tad more in later rounds. If I get Darvish or Verlander, then I just draft as normal.

You Know Nothing, J.T. Snow
You Know Nothing, J.T. Snow
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney: That’s what I figured. Thanks for the reinforcement!

You Know Nothing, J.T. Snow
You Know Nothing, J.T. Snow
5 years ago

Quick strategy question:

Have a 12 team H2H points draft coming up on Sunday and in the league we must have 3 keepers and can keep up to 4. I finished 3rd last year so my position is not very high. I’m thinking about not keeping Price to move up into the third round and draft a pitcher (my other pitcher keeper is McCullers.) I’m assuming 4/5 others will be doing the same so I’d be looking at the 6th or so pick. The pitchers that may be available at that spot are Martinez, Darvish, Degrom, Verlander, Tanaka. Think it’s worth ditching Price to move up to get any of these guys? I’d be taking a decent risk by not keeping him, but the potential at Darvish or Verlander is very tempting. What do you think? Keep Price and start him on the DL or take a chance by dropping him?

You Know Nothing, J.T. Snow
You Know Nothing, J.T. Snow
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney:1B: 1
2B: 2
3B: 3
HR: 4
TB: 1
BB: 1
K: -1
R: 1
RBI: 1
HBP: 0.5
GIDP: -0.5
SB: 1
CS: -1

Pitching:
W: 5
L: -5
QS: 3
IP: 3
ER: -2
HA: -1
BBA: -1
K: 1
SV: 5
BS: -5
HLD: 3
CG: 5
SO: 5

My other 3 keepers are Donaldson, Seager, and McCullers. Pitching in the draft is usually taken very early and everyone else except me values pitchers pretty high. I’m worried about Price starting the season on the DL. I figure there’s a decent chance at Verlander or Darvish at keeper pick 6 and if by chance they aren’t there, I’m getting a very solid hitter and then taking someone like CMart/Tanaka/Degrom with my 5th round pick or 6th round pick. If the latter happens, I figure I’ll just have to focus on pitching a tad more in later rounds. If I get Darvish or Verlander, then I just draft as normal.

Sorry for the double post, accidentally started another post

Meisce
Meisce
5 years ago

Hey Malamoney, this is exceptional. Founds a few suprizes when I entered my custom points league. I certainly won’t be reaching for pitchers.

Will you be entering this functionality into Hot Rod’s War Room excel sheet? I see there’ a space for it- I’m drafting this weekend and plan to use that ( another great tool! )

Thanks!

Blake
Blake
5 years ago

Will you have ADP in there so I can see value?

or do you have ADP values for pts leagues so I can look for value comparitively per round?

it always seems like a trick so get someone who will produce the same amount of points that can be found later than a bigger name

Blake
Blake
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney:

will it be part of the rankings spreadsheet?

Blake
Blake
5 years ago

Since these are projections – How do I rank appropriately with my settings below? I entered my scoring system, then if i filter by total points that doesnt give true ranking though?

In my league settings as you can see, hitters outproduce pitchers

Hitters:

1pt -1B, 2pts -2B, 3pts -3B, 4pts -HR, 1pt -R, 1pt -1RBI, 1pt -BB

Pitchers

15pts – W, 7pts – S, 1pt – SO

Maestro
Maestro
5 years ago

Hi –

I asked you the question last year and figured I’d ask again just in case you’ve developed or know someone that has developed a formula to account for the aberration in scoring system into the projections. It’s a weekly league.

Batting
BA Batting Average .126 – .150 BAs = 6 points
.151 – .175 BAs = 7 points
.176 – .200 BAs = 8 points
.201 – .225 BAs = 9 points
.226 – .250 BAs = 10 points
.251 – .275 BAs = 11 points
.276 – .300 BAs = 12 points
.301 – .325 BAs = 13 points
.326 – .350 BAs = 14 points
.351 – .375 BAs = 15 points
.376 – .400 BAs = 16 points
.401 – .425 BAs = 17 points
.426 – .450 BAs = 18 points
.451 – .475 BAs = 19 points
.476 – .500 BAs = 20 points
.501 – .525 BAs = 21 points
.526 – .550 BAs = 22 points
.551 – .575 BAs = 23 points
.576 – .600 BAs = 24 points

ERA Earned Run Average .000 – .499 ERAs = 24 points
.500 – .999 ERAs = 22 points
1.00 – 1.49 ERAs = 20 points
1.50 – 1.99 ERAs = 18 points
2.00 – 2.49 ERAs = 16 points
2.50 – 2.99 ERAs = 14 points
3.00 – 3.49 ERAs = 12 points
3.50 – 3.99 ERAs = 10 points
4.00 – 4.49 ERAs = 8 points
4.50 – 4.99 ERAs = 6 points
5.00 – 5.49 ERAs = 4 points

Maestro
Maestro
Reply to  Maestro
5 years ago

Every hitter in the lineup gets the “bonus” BA avg points and every pitcher (3SP 2RP, 1SP/RP) get the ERA “bonus”. I’ve always had a real hard time reflecting this in whatever projections I use to rank players. Any help is appreciated. @Maestro:

Mikey
Mikey
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

Lol I play in a weekly H2H points league. Scoring system is pretty typical with exception of batting average and ERA. The points for BA and ERA is per player For example, If Mike a Trout hits 400 for the week he gets 16 points just for BA + points for TB, RBI, R, SBBB, etc. He averaged ~ 35 points per week using this scoring system.

RP’s, especially closers, are very valuable because if they could bring in 50 points with 3saves (8×3) + 24 ERA points + 1 point for every K. A SP that throws 6 innings of 1 run ball and wins could net you ~35 points

@malamoney:

Mikey
Mikey
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney: Good point but an argument/rule change that won’t be under discussion this year. That scenario, anyways, is a handful of times during a season.

I will likely just take the points from a player’s projected avg and ERA, multiply by 26 (weeks in a season) and add to point total, then generate rankings.

Mikey
Mikey
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney: ok, thank you. I’ve seen AB and Inning projections but haven’t seen game projections. This probably wouldn’t be too difficult to come up with. Where can I get the most accurate playing time projections?

Mikey
Mikey
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney: that was a test!! I’m going with your projections!!

Cole
Cole
5 years ago

I know…rookie mistake but how do I load the spreadsheet with my custom points?

thank you

Cole
Cole
Reply to  Cole
5 years ago

@Cole: got it. sorry for the post

RicoSuave
RicoSuave
5 years ago

Hey Malamoney,

So, my draft starts today (slow draft for one week) and then the final draft is some time next week… (16 team H2H points league) I’m drafting # 13 – snake draft. I probably will be asking you a lot of questions during the slow draft… i hope you’re ok with that.

My scoring system is as follows:

BATTING

1B Singles 1 point
2B Doubles 2 points
3B Triples 3 points
BB Walks (Batters) 1 point
CS Caught Stealing -1 point
GSHR Grand Slam Home Runs 1 point
HP Hit by Pitch 1 point
HR Home Runs 4 points
KO Strikeouts (Batter) -0.5 points
R Runs 1 point
RBI Runs Batted In 1 point
SB Stolen Bases 2 points

PITCHING

BBI Walks Issued (Pitchers) -1 point
BS Blown Saves -1 point
CG Complete Games 3 points
ER Earned Runs -1 point
HA Hits Allowed -1 point
HB Hit Batsmen -1 point
HD Holds 2 points
INN Innings 3 points
K Strikeouts (Pitcher) 0.5 points
L Losses -3 points
QS Quality Starts 3 points
S Saves 5 points
W Wins 5 points

What strategy should I follow with this format?

Thanks so much for the help!

RicoSuave
RicoSuave
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney: one player per position, 3 OF with a Util. spot. 5 SP and 3 RP … 5 bench spots.

RicoSuave
RicoSuave
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney: Sweet! Thanks so much man!

RicoSuave
RicoSuave
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney: ok, I will…

RicoSuave
RicoSuave
Reply to  RicoSuave
5 years ago

@RicoSuave: so, in my slow draft and pick #12 overall is on the clock… I’m on deck…
drafted so far:
Trout,
Kershaw,
Arenado,
Betts,
Scherzer,
Sale,
Kluber,
Altuve,
Bryant,
Goldschmidt,
Machado,
#12 (on the clock)
#13 (me)
Who should be my first pick?

RicoSuave
RicoSuave
Reply to  RicoSuave
5 years ago

@RicoSuave: and who should I target on the way back (#20 overall)?
THANKS!

RicoSuave
RicoSuave
Reply to  RicoSuave
5 years ago

@RicoSuave: Josh Donaldson #12

Rizzo or Harper?

RicoSuave
RicoSuave
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney: Hey Malamoney,
I know you’re a busy man… did you get a chance to look into this?
I appreciate your help!

RicoSuave
RicoSuave
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@RicoSuave: @malamoney: yes, you did! and thanks so much for that… you mentioned you were going to create customized rankings for my league…
appreciate your help man!

RicoSuave
RicoSuave
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney: AWESOME! THANK YOU!!!!

Jimmy
Jimmy
5 years ago

Hey malamoney,
Hopefully you’re still monitoring the comments. Wanted your opinion on my family league draft from this morning. Its a 10 team CBS H2H points league with standard settings (pitchers favored by the format as I’m sure you know).

C- Contreras (162)
1B- Myers (82)
2B- Dozier (39)
SS- Story (62)
3B- Donaldson (22)
OF- Cruz (42)
OF- Desmond (99)
OF- Polanco (122)
U- Puig (202)
SP- Kershaw (2)
SP- Lester (19)
SP- Strasburg (59)
SP- Price (79)
SP- Cole (102)
RP- Giles (159)
RP- Diaz (199)
RES- Teheran (119), McCullers (139), Gausman (142), McHugh (179), Manaea (182)

My own thoughts… Took a big gamble on Price but reports have been encouraging so far. Filled out my reserve slots with upside pitchers because weekly lineups in my opinion are helped by 2 start pitchers and matchups so having SP flexibility is helpful. Puig was a last pick flier and Utility could turn into a hot hand waivers slot. Desmond broke his hand hours after the draft, which is a huge bummer.

What do you think?

Jimmy
Jimmy
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney:

Yeah I missed the SS run. After Story was Andrus so I grabbed him while I could salvage some upside. OF is a bit of a mine field this year. Not looking forward to replacing Desmond. I’m pumped about Kershaw. First time owning him anywhere.

Thanks for the feedback!

cable
cable
5 years ago

that was a C&P that got all banged up

S. Head
S. Head
5 years ago

i pick first, then 5th from that group of players. Thanks for all the chatter.

S. Head
S. Head
5 years ago

So two first basemen to start a draft isn’t a big deal? At what point in a draft do you usually stop looking at total points and start looking at positions, or at players you think will outperform a projection.

S. Head
S. Head
5 years ago

Singles, 2b, 3bs – 1,2,3
Hrs- 4
Runs, ribs, walks – 1
Batter Ks -.-5
Wins, qs- 5
Saves – 6
K 1
Innings 1
Loss –5
Bs –5
Walks –1
Er –1

4of
2 utils
No corner if s or 2nd/as
14 teams

S. Head
S. Head
Reply to  S. Head
5 years ago

@S. Head:
Sb- 2 points

S. Head
S. Head
Reply to  S. Head
5 years ago

@S. Head:
And that’s no 1b/3b or 2nd/ss. I’m buzzed up and watching Casablanca.

S. Head
S. Head
5 years ago

And nah. My first name is Shark.

S. Head
S. Head
5 years ago

Then we aren’t ESPN standard. Innings aren’t 1 point in points leagues anymore? I’ve got Edwin at 50 points more than Bum. And all those guys are kept already. Most people kept 3, I only kept one, so I have some picks off the top of the remaining dudes: seagers, carp, cano, Edwin, bumgarner. I’ll get two of the listed players.

Tennis anyone
Tennis anyone
5 years ago

Are there any leagues you are taking Betts over Trout?

S. Head
S. Head
5 years ago

14 team, H2h points league ESPN scoring system, except QS and W are 5; batter K is .5. Im keeping Goldy and have some early picks coming my way because we can keep up to 3. We also have 2 Utils.
Is it a positional issue to draft Edwin first? Bumgarner is there too and won’t be for my second pick.

S. Head
S. Head
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney: sheeit. That’s not what I wanted to hear. Is it a lack of a belief in Edwin, a belief in MadBum, or a positional thing?

cable
cable
5 years ago

cable says:
March 9, 2017 at 11:13 am (link)
picking from the 8th this year in a snake style draft……. 7 SPers went in the first 2 rds in last years draft h2h/points…..these guys that I play with ( (13th year)are pitching hogs …I will grab a SPer in the 2nd rd…..I’ll probably have to pick between Rizzo & Machado with the 1st pick…….

Reply
malamoney says:
March 9, 2017 at 11:35 am (link)
@cable: What is your scoring system?

Reply
cable says:
March 10, 2017 at 6:35 am (link)
@malamoney:

————————-BATTING NAME SETTINGS
1B Singles 1 point
2B Doubles 2 points
3B Triples 3 points
BB Walks (Batters) 1 point
HP Hit by Pitch 1 point
HR Home Runs 4 points
R Runs 1 point
RBI Runs Batted In 1 point
SB Stolen Bases 2 points
PITCHING NAME SETTINGS
BBI Walks Issued (Pitchers) -.5 points
BS Blown Saves -3 points
CG Complete Games/shut out/10 points
ER Earned Runs -1 point
HA Hits Allowed -.5 points
INN Innings 2 points
K Strikeouts (Pitcher) 1 point
L Losses -5 points
NH No-Hitters 10 points
PG Perfect Games 10 points
S Saves 8 points
W Wins 10 points

Reply

Hambone
Hambone
5 years ago

Are you going to update the sheets with position rankings and ADP, like last year? Really helped me going into my draft. Thanks for all you do!

Akash
Akash
5 years ago

Thanks man this is great!

Big James A'int
Big James A'int
5 years ago

Also, doesn’t look like the ER values on the scoring systems tab are coming over correctly to the point systems page. ESPN for example is showing -2 on the scoring systems page, but -1 on the points systems page. Thanks!

Big James A'int
Big James A'int
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney: Thank you

Big James A'int
Big James A'int
5 years ago

Transferred the excel file over to sheets, and seems to have lost the ability to select other scoring option?

Big James A'int
Big James A'int
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney: I do have excel. Just threw it into sheets so I could access it anywhere. Everything the last couple of years has transferred just fine into sheets, other than the drop down box this year to change score settings, which by the way, is such a time saver and a great update.

RicoSuave
RicoSuave
Reply to  Big James A'int
5 years ago

@Big James A’int: I thought i had the same issue and I entered my league’s scoring system under the Custom Scoring 1 (box A9) on the Scoring Systems tab. Then, I went to the Points System Tab and changed Box A23 which had ESPN to Custom Scoring 1 (because I couldn’t see the drop down menu) and that did the trick… I hope this makes sense.
Cheers!

RicoSuave
RicoSuave
Reply to  RicoSuave
5 years ago

@RicoSuave: erased ESPN on box A23 (Points System tab) and typed Custom Scoring 1 and that worked. You should be able to see the changes…

Big James A'int
Big James A'int
Reply to  RicoSuave
5 years ago

@RicoSuave: Thanks!

cable
cable
5 years ago

picking from the 8th this year in a snake style draft……. 7 SPers went in the first 2 rds in last years draft h2h/points…..these guys that I play with ( (13th year)are pitching hogs …I will grab a SPer in the 2nd rd…..I’ll probably have to pick between Rizzo & Machado with the 1st pick…….

cable
cable
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney:

————————-BATTING NAME SETTINGS
1B Singles 1 point
2B Doubles 2 points
3B Triples 3 points
BB Walks (Batters) 1 point
HP Hit by Pitch 1 point
HR Home Runs 4 points
R Runs 1 point
RBI Runs Batted In 1 point
SB Stolen Bases 2 points
PITCHING NAME SETTINGS
BBI Walks Issued (Pitchers) -.5 points
BS Blown Saves -3 points
CG Complete Games/shut out/10 points
ER Earned Runs -1 point
HA Hits Allowed -.5 points
INN Innings 2 points
K Strikeouts (Pitcher) 1 point
L Losses -5 points
NH No-Hitters 10 points
PG Perfect Games 10 points
S Saves 8 points
W Wins 10 points

Jason Morgan
Jason Morgan
5 years ago

Awesome. Your spreadsheets and insight are the best thing available for points league players. Some other site mention points leagues but not to your depth. Thanks man. I appreciate your hard work. Once I play with this sheet I’m sure I will have questions. Many thanks.

RicoSuave
RicoSuave
5 years ago

Hey Malamoney,

I just got my draft pick position and I’m picking 13 out of 16 teams (snake draft) H2H points league redraft.
my league’s scoring system is very close to CBS’ but W are 5pts. and L are -3 . I know every draft is very different and we do a slow draft for a week and on the final day we have a 2 min time limit per pick until we’re done… so, I will be bugging you during that time. ( i hope you don’t mind!)
Who should I be targeting for my first pick ( # 13 overall) and second pick ( #20 overall)?

Thanks again! …and looking forward to following your posts.

Ricosuave
Ricosuave
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney: Thanks Malamoney. I see what you mean… and I’m looking forward to reading your next posts…

Cheers!

icefires
icefires
5 years ago

Thank you!

Rhinoballer
Rhinoballer
5 years ago

This is an amazing site for my draft prep! I’m in a Y! league with 10 teams, H2H and 3 keepers.

Our scoring system is 7×7 as follows:
Batting: Runs (R), Hits (H), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Batting Average (AVG), On-base + Slugging Percentage (OPS), Net Stolen Bases (NSB)

Pitching: Wins (W), Losses (L), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP), Strikeouts per Nine Innings (K/9), Net Saves (NSV)

How would this affect these rankings you’ve put up? Given that my keepers are a 1B, 3B and an OF, could you provide any general advice on how to approach my draft? I’m drafting 7th overall.

Rhinoballer
Rhinoballer
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney: Bryant, Donaldson and Harper….We’re in the 12th year of the league and I was fortunate to have these three as my keepers last year too even though I only finished 4th.

Guys who will be available in the first round of our draft this year (I pick 7th):
Bogaerts
Lindor
Freeman
Cano
Villar
JD Martinez
Yu Darvish
Braun
Cruz
Pollock

I’m hoping one of the three SS falls to me. Any thoughts on who of these available players should be at the top of this list? Thanks.

Rhinoballer
Rhinoballer
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney:

Darvish, Strasburg, Archer, Carrasco, Verlander, Cueto are all available.

Bryant seems to qualify at 1B currently in Yahoo.

Shivdaddy
Shivdaddy
5 years ago

Yay! I have been waiting for this! I figured you had to have Arenado up there after seeing you in the CBS h2h mock. Have only messed with spreadsheet for a couple minutes but it already seems more user friendly than last year! Thanks for your dedication to h2h!

Iron Sheik
Iron Sheik
5 years ago

Malamoney-
Great work. Thanks for the projections. I’m going to shave some off of Price and add to deGrom!
I need to cut three of these players on my dynasty team. I’m able to protect 8 minors (could be a major league player). Which of these choices would you look to drop or trade as I have to get my roster to the legal limit in 3 weeks….3 players need to get axed or traded. Thanks a bunch.

Josh Bell (R)
Yoan Moncada (R)
Mike Moustakas (R)
Rafael Devers (M)
Nick Senzel (M)
Kevin Maitan (M)
Glybor Torres (M)
Nomar Mazara
Hunter Renfroe (R)
Eloy Jimenez (M)
Tyler O’Neill (M)
Jake Lamb

Jake Musgrove (R)
Josh Hader (R)
T Glasnow (R)
Robbie Ray (R)
Francais Martes (R)
Jose De Leon (R)
Alex Reyes (M)
Anderson Espinoza (M)
Mike Montgomery (R)

Iron Sheik
Iron Sheik
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney: SCORING SYSTEM

BATTING NAME SETTINGS
1B Singles 1 point
2B Doubles 2 points
3B Triples 3 points
BB Walks (Batters) 1 point
CS Caught Stealing -1 point
CYC Hitting for the Cycle 6 points
E Errors -1 point
GSHR Grand Slam Home Runs 4 points
HP Hit by Pitch 1 point
HR Home Runs 4 points
KO Strikeouts (Batter) -1 point
R Runs 1 point
RBI Runs Batted In 1 point
SB Stolen Bases 1 point

PITCHING NAME SETTINGS
B Balks -.3 points
BBI Walks Issued (Pitchers) -.3 points
BS Blown Saves -1 point
CG Complete Games 5 points
ER Earned Runs -1 point
HA Hits Allowed -.5 points
HB Hit Batsmen -.3 points
INN Innings .1 – 1 INN = 1 point
1.1 – 2 INNs = 2 points
2.1 – 3 INNs = 3 points
3.1 – 4 INNs = 4 points
4.1 – 5 INNs = 5 points
5.1 – 6 INNs = 6 points
6.1 – 7 INNs = 7 points
7.1 – 8 INNs = 8 points
8.1 – 9 INNs = 9 points
9.1 – 10 INNs = 10 points
10.1 – 11 INNs = 11 points
11.1 – 12 INNs = 12 points
12.1 – 13 INNs = 13 points
13.1 – 14 INNs = 14 points
14.1 – 15 INNs = 15 points
15.1 – 16 INNs = 16 points
16.1 – 17 INNs = 17 points
17.1 – 18 INNs = 18 points
18.1 – 19 INNs = 19 points
19.1 – 20 INNs = 20 points
20.1 – 21 INNs = 21 points
21.1 – 22 INNs = 22 points
22.1 – 23 INNs = 23 points
23.1 – 24 INNs = 24 points
24.1 – 25 INNs = 25 points
K Strikeouts (Pitcher) 1 point
L Losses -2 points
NH No-Hitters 15 points
PG Perfect Games 5 points
QS Quality Starts 2 points
S Saves 4 points
SO Shutouts 6 points
W Wins 6 points
WP Wild Pitches -.3 points

Eli Man Penguin Boy
Eli Man Penguin Boy
5 years ago

so you gave yourself both an eleventh of a half, and another half in total? not faulting it, just interesting.

Eli Man Penguin Boy
Eli Man Penguin Boy
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney: you said: “I took my projections, along with ten other sets of projections (from trusted sources) and averaged them all together. Then I took those averaged projections and averaged them again with my original projections, giving my work a bit more weight”

RicoSuave
RicoSuave
5 years ago

Awesome Malamoney! THANKS…

Great work man!

Bill
Bill
5 years ago

The WHIP calculation looks incorrect

Grey
Admin
5 years ago

Love the quote!

Smallwine
Smallwine
5 years ago

Based on the near worthless projections, with the number 1 overall pick in a 12 team points league would you lean Arenado over Trout? I don’t think I have the cojones to take Kershaw #1 overall. Thanks.

Smallwine
Smallwine
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney: It’s pretty much the same as your excel set up except that pitching W’s are worth 7.

I’ve been a long time stalker to the site but first time commenter. Appreciate all the work and feedback you guys give.

Smallwine
Smallwine
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney: Sorry, I’ll get this figured out someday!
Batting: (1B) 1; (2B) 2; (3B)3; (HR) 5; (BB) 1; (RS)1; (RBI) 1; (SB) 1; (K)-1; HBP 1; Caught Stealing -1

Pitching: (IP) 0.99; (ER) -1; (W) 7; (L) -5; (SV) 3; (BS) -2; (K) 1; (H) -1; (BB) -1; (HD) 2; (CG) 10; and (QS) 3.

I was leaning towards Trout but with such a long wait between 2nd and 3rd picks, getting a stud 3B early is appealing.

Smallwine
Smallwine
Reply to  malamoney
5 years ago

@malamoney: Thanks for the feedback!

robmack1111
robmack1111
5 years ago

This is some awesome stuff and will definitely make me feel better headed into my H2H points league draft. Thanks for this!

David
David
5 years ago

Thank you so much!!! I’ve been anxiously awaiting this. Going for my 4th title in a row. My draft “cheat sheet” each year has been made exclusively from this site. :)

You know nothing, J.T. Snow
You know nothing, J.T. Snow
5 years ago

As a points player and math nerd myself, I appreciate all of the work you’ve put into compiling the data and averaging out the projections. While I’d much rather be playing roto, my friends all like H2H points and that’s what I’m stuck with. I do really like the mathematical aspect of the format though. Can’t wait to plug in our leagues scoring here and see what comes up.

As far as a non-math projection. I think JD Martinez will be the 40 home run hitter. He Ks a lot, which puts him lower in my league, but the ESPN projections for him seem especially off. Looking at 2015, his fly ball distance was above average and hard hit % was great. If he’s healthy, I think he can knock 40 out even in Comerica. Any other guys that stand out as being underrated in points leagues?