Welcome to the first official “This Week In Razz”, because we all know how good it is to be in Razz. Technically, last week was the first official post of this series, but that was more of a “welcome to the site, here’s what you can expect” type of thing. So I guess we had two beginnings, which means twice the fanfare, twice the laughter, and twice the, uh, yeah, I ran out of stuff that we got double of. Whiplash may work here. Regardless, I’m here to go over the week that was, in case you missed anything here on Razzball, and to go over what to expect next week…and what a special week it’ll be. Baseball finally starts, with Sunday being sorta-kinda-you-just-get-one-game Opening Day, and then Monday brings baseball to 100% operating levels. Unless you’re a fan of the Phillies. Then you’re really just working with 18 or so percent. But that’s okay! You have Philly Cheesesteaks, Chip Kelly innovating, I don’t know, stuff I guess, and yeah. Batteries to throw at people I guess? It could be worse! I mean, you could be living in Cleveland! (I’m kidding. Maybe.) So follow me after the jump to take a look back AND a look forward on all things Razzball. (Including helpful tips using Razzball’s Streamonator, Hitter-Tron, and DFSBot!)

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See all of today’s starting lineups

# MLB Starting Lineups For Tue 8/5
ARI | ATH | ATL | BAL | BOS | CHC | CHW | CIN | CLE | COL | DET | HOU | KC | LAA | LAD | MIL | MIN | NYM | NYY | PHI | PIT | SD | SEA | SF | STL | TB | TEX | TOR | WSH | MIA | OAK

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Fantasy baseballers are becoming increasingly analytical. Estimating a player’s future batting average now reflexively leads to checking their BABIP, their batted ball profile (GB/LD/FB) and a hitter’s K%. Any discussion of a pitcher’s ERA will likely reference their FIP/xFIP/SIERA/etc. Aside from the whole bastardization of baseball outcomes for the illusion of empowerment and erosion of professional productivity, the average fantasy baseballer is much closer in perspective to a sabermetrician than the average fan watching from his/her couch (or the remaining indoctrinated baseball journalists that still roam the land).

One area where I admit I have a tough time reconciling my analytic side with my fantasy baseball instincts is the value of a hitter’s recent performance.*

* I know many fantasy baseball players look at hitter/pitcher matchup data. I think the chapter on this in The Book clearly drives home the point that these results are not predictive because of small sample sizes. I always ignore matchup data and think it is a total waste of time…well, except for Goldschmidt vs Lincecum
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bryant_park

Those of you that live in the New York City area or have visited the world’s greatest metropolis have likely walked past Bryant Park. Perhaps you even stopped to take a leak or even sat down on a nice sunny day to do some fantasy baseball research and adjust your lineup. Located between between Fifth and Sixth Avenues and between 40th and 42nd Streets in Midtown Manhattan, Bryant Park is actually built on top of an underground building containing the archives for the New York Public Library. I know… who gives a shift. Besides, I’m more of a Washington Square Park kinda guy anyway.

For those of you that thought Bryant Park was the name of the Chicago Cubs spring training stadium, guess again. That would be Sloan Park in Mesa, Arizona, which happens to be the largest spring training stadium (by capacity) with room for 15,000 people. [Jay’s Note: Had amazing sight lines, rugged, yet modern feel. 8/10, would go again.] I think that translates into 25,000 little people, but my math could be wrong. Despite his herculean efforts this spring, not only did they not rename the stadium after him, but Kris Bryant was denied the opportunity of being on the Opening Day roster. Instead, Theo Epstein gave us all some bullshart excuse that he needs more time in the minors. Listen Theo, say what you want, but there isn’t a baseball fan north of the border that doesn’t believe this isn’t a service time maneuver. I’m not a Boras fan, but I love how he called him out on this. Even Cubs manager Joe Maddon has said that he’d love to have him in the lineup. I guess I’ll see you in a few weeks Kris.

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Jay has set the table or whatever he was talking about last week with spoons, knives and whatnot. I think he needs to eat before he writes these. Well if I’m reading him right, that is my queue to grab the tablecloth and pull it out while leaving all the table settings perfectly in place. *Grabs cloth, pulls hard* CRASH! No, not Davis…well, the place setting is ruined, literally broke everything with one fell swoop. Okay, I actually jacked all the silverware and pawned it to pay for my anti-depressants. This is a sign my friends and detractors that opening day is almost here. Draft time is cute like a puppy where we are full of hope and optimism, unless you drafted Stroman, Salazar, Wheeler, and Darvish. Now the season begins and it turns into a dog that pisses on your pillow, craps in your shoes, and turns your socks into swiss cheese. Why all the cynicism J-FOH? It’s who I am, and the chances of you having a perfect draft is as likely as Grey getting that restraining order Giancarlo slapped on him lifted. Give it up Grey, it’s not happening. Seriously, it’s time for reality to start as we see how our educated guesses/luck/gut instincts/stat crunching/strategies start to pan out. Here is to not having an unlucky year *toasts 40ozer to computer*.

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I’ve drafted my Razzball Commenter League team (over hundred leagues this year; crazy!), and now I’m ready for the season. All those other drafts — like Tout, Friends & Family, NFBC, yadda-whodoodie — are in the past. They were prep for this draft. This draft is the one that matters, because I’m going against, like, 1200 of youse. And youse are the ones that matter. Well, a few of youse matter more than a few of the other youse. Just assume you are part of the favorable youse. In this league was Tim McLeod from RotoRob, Mike Gianella from Baseball Prospectus, Dalton Del Don from Yahoo, Ryan Carey from Mastersball and from Razzball: Rudy, JayWrong, Sky, JFoH, Tehol, Prospect Mike, JB and yours truly. All of these people make me very thankful (that it wasn’t an in-person draft). I was drafting out of the three-hole (no relation to Tehol; that I know of), and I knew after all those preliminary drafts that I was finally going to take guys that I really, really wanted from my 2015 fantasy baseball rankings (clickbait, snitches!). Well, until around the 4th round. Okay, enough hubbub on the tomfoolery, let’s get to it! Anyway, here’s my RCL draft (5×5, roto, mixed league, 12 team, 5 OFs, etc.):

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The time has once again arrived to get wild and crazy with my procrastination! Wait, is that the right word? No. No it’s not. That’s actually my life strategy. Prescientinism is probably the word I’m looking for. It’s a totally made up word, but whatever. So here I am, back to bring you 11 BOLD (bolded for effect) predictions that may or may not come true. (Probably not.) If you missed it, last year, Eno Sarris of FanGraphs and I had a gentlemen’s battle to the death (because that’s what gentlemen do) over our predictions. Much to my sadness, I lost by only getting three right to Sarris’ five. To be fair, I got really close on a lot of the spewed boldness, so if you like pleading and excuse-making, well then technically it was a tie. But a new season brings new hope and something-something wax poetic, so let’s get bold AND beautiful (just like your mom)…

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Give me a Kris to build a dream on,

And my imagination will thrive upon that Kris,

Sweetheart, I ask no more than this,

A Kris to build a dream on

Nothing like kickin’ it off old school with a little Satchmo (with, uh, alternate lyrics).  Hello all, and welcome to the return of the Bear or Bull series. In honor of Easter season, the powers that be have decided to resurrect yet another tried-and-true Razzball favorite and have placed it’s fate into the hands of yours truly. Big mistake. I mean, good call! The concept is simple. Each week, I’ll be highlighting a certain player and creating a framework of where he is trending in fantasy terms. Think of it as the Offseason Stock Report series but in-season and with animals. After some background analysis, number crunching, and perhaps a player comp or two, I’ll reveal whether I’m Bearish (pessimistic) or Bullish (optimistic) on the player in question. Cause everyone loves Rocky Mountain oysters, right? Right? Moving on…

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The pieces are all set, and it’s like the beginning of checkers…  Before you secretly cheat while your cousin isn’t looking, you should know that 28-of-the-30 teams have labeled a guy to be their respective closer.  Now, for some, that’s like being labeled the “Hand of the King” and with bad pitching performances, their heads will soon be on a pike out side of Comerica.  Yeah, that was a shot at you Joe Nathan, we are all whistling happy trails under our breath as you slowly ride of into the sunset Shane style.

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Anthony Rendon went for a third opinion and heard the same thing — a sprained MCL. Another day, another opinion. It’s like he’s a girl and his knee is a new skirt. “I was in home ec and Jimmy Andrews comes in and….” *snaps bubble gum* “He’s wearing, like, one of those soft-wool t-shirts that has the funniest thing on it and…” *twirls hair* “He says, ‘Hello.’ I’m dying. Ah-magod! Ah-magod! Ah-magod! So, I asked him, ya know, what he thought of my knee, and he said it looked good. Ah-magod!” And that’s how you insult your four girl readers! Seriously, people with a life-threatening ailment get fewer opinions from doctors. The Nats finally have a timetable for his return: three weeks. When it takes three weeks to figure out it’s going to be three weeks, I don’t get the most confident feeling coming from this news, but if we’re to take it at face value, then he’ll return after only missing about 15 games. I moved him the other day in my fantasy baseball rankings and top 400, and won’t move him again. If he’s sitting there in the third round and you’re feeling lucky, then give him a shot. Ah-magod! Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for fantasy baseball:

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Greetings! The time has come! This is what we’ve all been so patiently waiting for! Yaaaaaaasssss, Bruce Jenner’s sex change is upon us!!! Rejoice! It’s also a cool time of the year because MLB is starting up again. I suppose that means we should get down on some mo fantasy baseball type shizzz. Are you ready? No, I said, ARE YOUR READY!?!? Okay, sweet.

I so desperately wanted to write a preseason piece on Domonic Brown, but I was notified that he received over 500 words in my outfielders post, making it a no go this week. Can you even imagine? That would be like some moron pathetically green lighting a sequel to Paul Blart: Mall Cop. Only my Domonic column would probably go on to win awards and Blart 2 would be about as entertaining as watching Rosie O’Donnell’s love box fart for two straight hours…..WHAT?!?!?!?!? THEY’RE MAKING A PAUL BLART SEQUEL!??! WHAT IS WRONG WITH THESE PEOPLE!?!?!? My generation got Home Alone and Radio Flyer. The children of today get Paul effing Blart? Kevin James should be ashamed of himself for this. It’s embarrassing enough piggybacking the falling star that is Adam Sandler into 90% of his movie roles, but this is beyond pathetic. Hey, at least his untalented brother will get another meaningless role. Laaaaaawd, make it stop.

Enough about Blart. I’m here to talk about closers. I am Tehol Beddict, and this is Disgrace/Delight! Take Heed!

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Or, the Unexpected Virtue of Active Bidding…

Unlike a certain appendage of mine, I like to keep my intros short, so let’s get down to business. For those of you who were not with us last week, I spewed some thoughts on auction theory and expressed a desire to create a tool to simulate auctions. Seven days later, I have created such a tool. Or at least a basic, yet functional form of one…

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Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America
2014 (1) | 2013 (7) | 2012 (13) | 2011 (19) | 2010 (15)

2014 Affiliate Records
MLB: [88-74] NL Central
AAA: [73-71] International League – Indianapolis
AA: [61-81] Eastern League – Altoona
A+: [78-61] Florida State League – Bradenton
A: [54-81] South Atlantic League – West Virginia
A(ss): [35-40] New York-Penn League – Jamestown

Graduated Prospects
Gregory Polanco, OF | Tony Sanchez, C

The Gist
30 teams…300 prospects…and we’ve reached the mountaintop. The Pirates continue to have a very strong farm system this year with a nice balance of hitting and pitching. Adding IFA Jung-Ho Kang makes it even stronger. While they’re thin on southpaws, they’re stacked with solid right-handed pitching. Gerrit Cole has already come up and established his value, but Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon, and Nick Kingham should be ready to join him in the rotation at some point this year or next. The Pirates have had success developing Latin American talent like Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte, and they’ll look to continue that trend with prospects like Alen Hanson, Harold Ramirez, and Tito Polo. On a side note, this last minor league preview is a little bittersweet for me, as it will also be my last post with the site. I’ve accepted an offer to scout for the Phillies. The offer was just too good to pass up and hopefully I can help them find the next Domonic Brown. I wish you all the best and really appreciated my time here at Razzball.

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