SAGNOF just keeps finding ways to stay absurd.  Tom Wilhelmsen, Jean Machi, John Axford = good.  Carson Smith, Junichi Tazawa…. even Greg Holland = bad.  If all you care about are saves there’s been a wealth of (ever changing) options available.  Realistically, I think chasing saves with bad closers can be a losing proposition.  What do the first three (the so called “good”) have in common aside from taking over as the closer?  How about WHIPs greater than 1.40.  These players need to come with a warning label.  “Implosion likely to occur.”  I mean, it only took Edward Mujica about a week to implode and he was arguably better than any of these three.  Axford and Wilhelmsen look like brothers from different mothers with their K:BB ratios at 1.75 and 1.91 respectively.  Anything below 2.50 is really bad for a closer.  Unless you’re Brad Ziegler.  Then it’s okay.  (I need a “no sarcasm” alert for that one).  Here’s the lowdown on the closer situations that will make you want to scream.

Wade Davis may have just become Kansas City’s closer.  Because I only write about struggling closers or next in line players I’ve said next to nothing on Greg Holland.  Well it turns out he’s a struggling closer, and I missed it.  His below average ERA of 3.55 has an even seedier underbelly: a 1.42 WHIP for the season that’s been even worse recently.  That’s how you lose your job.  I haven’t heard any official word yet.. but the Royals need to get their closer situation sorted out before the playoffs, in my opinion, so they’ll go with Davis.

Sean Doolittle‘s already back from the disabled list and he’ll probably take over the closer role soon, if not immediately.  It’s a shame in a way, I’d like to see Drew Pomeranz get more chances (yes, I know he blew a save recently) just to see what he does with it.

Kevin Jepsen is good SAGNOF right now because Glen Perkins is ailing.  Perkins pitched on Sunday but I’m not confident he’ll stay healthy.  However, Perkins’ health woes are about a week old so I think Jepsen is owned by now owned in most 12 team leagues.  Jepsen might be worth owning before any of the ugly closers I’ve mentioned here, so if he’s dropped because Perkins came back consider him.

Tom Wilhelmsen seems to have taken over for Carson Smith.  What’s wrong with Smith?  His stats for the season still look very good.  Over the last 30 days, that’s a different story:  10 walks in 11.2 innings is not going to get the job done.  It’s not like Tom Wilhelmsen has been much better.  The good is he hasn’t been hit much.  The bad is his WHIP for the season is 1.52.  I read that Carson Smith is getting a “mental break”.  I wouldn’t not be surprised if he doesn’t see a save chance again this year.  I’m not saying he’s injured, but something is wrong with Carson Smith.

Hey, look who’s closing again.  John Axford.  He of the 1.65 WHIP.   He walks 5.3 batters per 9 innings and pitches in “mile high” air half the time.  This is not a good mix.

Hey, look who might really be closing this time.  Jean Machi.  Hey, did those K:BB ratios from Axford and Wilhelmsen seem bad?  How about 1.61 from Machi.  But Junichi Tazawa has been terrible almost to the point where, like Carson Smith, I’m wondering “what’s wrong”?  To my knowledge no move has been announced but Tazawa just gave up four earned runs on Sunday.

Save Ain’t Got No Face recommendations: John Axford, Tom Wilhelmsen, Kevin Jepsen, Jean Machi.  I guess, that’s the order I’d own them in.  Wade Davis should already be owned almost everywhere.  If he’s not, blow most of your remaining FAAB (get the latest news update first).

 

Steals Ain’t Got No Face notes:

I’ve seen Jean Segura dropped and he’s a worthwhile pickup if you need middle infield SAGNOF.  Ben Revere has slowed down since joining the Blue Jays but he’s still producing in AVG and runs scored.  I doubt the lack of steals is a coincidence, it’s possibly because of the change in teams.  If you pick him up, don’t think of him as a SAGNOF savior because I doubt he will steal at his usual pace.

Last week I mentioned you should keep your eye on Josh Harrison and Byron Buxton.  They are up sooner than expected.  Harrison is one of those guys that’s not exactly SAGNOF, per se.  But he can steal a few bases while hitting for average.  Playing time is his biggest concern.  Byron Buxton has not performed well, yet again.  I’m not bothered very much by the poor performance in a  small sample size (SSS).  He’s a potential 1st round fantasy baseball pick in 2017.   Sorry if you own the injured Aaron Hicks.  It’s looking like he’ll be back soon although I think we’d all prefer that he not be Backson.

Regression alerts (it’s finally happened edition): Delino DeShields.. it took long enough but a player that was not supposed to be very good from the start is finally looking to be not very good.  Similar story for Jace Peterson.  Technically Billy Burns‘ regression came a while back.  I think we have good reason to suspect Billy Burns is about a .260s hitter, which is okay.  Sure would be nice if he walked more.  After slumping badly Burns has put up 12 runs, 0 home runs, 9 RBIs and 4 stolen bases while batting .250 over his last 30 days.  That’s not very good, but that’s about who he is.  Hopefully the steals come up over the last month plus.

Bonus (non-SAGNOF, it hasn’t happened yet edition) regression alert:  Miguel Sano is pacing like a .280 40 home run hitter but profiling like a .230 27 home run hitter.  Realistically he could hit anywhere from .200 to .270 the rest of the way depending on BABIP and K%.  To put it another way, if his BABIP and HR/FB were normal right now (as in good, but not obscenely good) he’d have been a .235 hitter so far.  Trust me.  I did the math.

September call ups update:  Sadly, I haven’t had the time to put in the research to figure out who is likely to be called up in September and which of those players will actually get enough playing time to matter.  Were still far enough away from September that I haven’t seen a lot of buzz.  Next week’s SAGNOF Special will be on the eve of the roster expansions and I’ll likely have something for you then.

SAGNOF recommendations for stealsByron Buxton should be owned in 12 team leagues, possibly even in 10 team leagues.  Jean Segura might actually be the most interesting player I’ve seen in the free agents pool.  His stolen bases are down this year but otherwise he seems to be roughly the same player.  Josh Harrison should provide more overall value than Segura if he gets enough playing time.  Reminder that we have a tool to help you stream SAGNOF stolen base options.

 

 

  1. yodo says:
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    Low on speed drop deshields. Have hernandez,inciarte,odor,deshields as speed l. Drop deshields for bergoius (leadoff hitter for cincy) , burns,blanco,

    • yodo says:
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      @yodo: gose

      • RotoLance

        RotoLance says:
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        @yodo: I actually still may like DeShields better than any of them, except maybe Blanco and it’s somewhat close with Burns too. DeShields has 5 stolen bases the last 30 days despite slumping a bit.

        I was more just trying to warn people that may be thinking he’s a .260 hitter. He might only be a .230 hitter but his walks help him steal.

        Honestly if you can make daily lineup adds.. these situations are what the sagnof SP tool is for (provided you have time). But if you can’t do that.. I’m fine with you keeping DeShields or dropping him for Blanco, just depends on team needs other than steals and where you can make up (or not lose) points.

        • Fred Garvin MP says:
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          @RotoLance: To piggyback on this conversation: would you drop DeShields for Segura?

          • RotoLance

            RotoLance says:
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            @Fred Garvin MP: I think it again depends on team needs. Segura higher AVG, a little more pop. DeShields definitely more stolen bases but a hit to your team AVG. Check your standings, make a decision. Thanks for reading.

            • Fred Garvin MP says:
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              @RotoLance: I hear ya. SB’s are the bigger need, so I’m going to sit tight and pray for some batting avg luck. Nice article. I think your Sano analysis is spot on.

              • RotoLance

                RotoLance says:
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                @Fred Garvin MP: Yeah all you have to do is regress Sano’s current stats. Make his BABIP into something reasonable (think .350ish) and turn a home run or two into FB outs and the average plummets.

                Earlier in the year I was doing something similar with Pederson and Souza except I was only regressing their HR/FB. We see what happened to their averages. When more fly balls are caught for outs, the average goes down. For a guy like Pederson who doesn’t have many hits because he walks a lot it’s got a big effect on AVG.

  2. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    What do you think of the MIA situation when Capps is back. I really like him a lot, but without save chances I’m inclined to stick with a bum like Carson until he’s definitely out of the role.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: You might want to google “Carson Smith mental break” or something to see that reference that I found. Where I saw it was on a pretty strange looking site.

      I forgot to look at a Capps update. I doubt they want to try him as closer, even with Ramos having struggled some recently. Well ok, struggled a lot recently. But his stats for the season are still quite good. I really can’t say.

      • Paul says:
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        @RotoLance: Thanks. That’s pretty much where I’ve been as well. My large roster 10 team roto is very competitive, particularly in Saves (I’m fighting to win that category with 2 other guys who are within 2-4 saves of me), so as much as I love Capps, I probably can’t afford to roster him over someone with save potential, no matter how fugly. I will always fondly remember the weekend that I had Jepsen closing…

  3. zeus says:
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    Any sept call ups for speed?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @zeus: Sorry, I mentioned this in the post.. I’m not aware of any yet. If I see something before my next SAGNOF Special on Monday I’ll try to let you know here on this comment thread.

  4. G says:
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    Wilhemson over rondon?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @G: I’d prefer the Bruce.

  5. Scott says:
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    Clipp looked pretty good in NY so far. What do you think of him closing down the line?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Scott: Down the line, like later this year? I don’t see why it would happen. Familia hasn’t given up a run for a while. He had a sketchy stretch about a month ago but he’s been good since.

    • Mobin Couldn't Hack It says:
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      @Scott: clip has been worse than familia except for like familia’s first 5 days back from injury and clip was brought in to setup.

    • Mobin Couldn't Hack It says:
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      @RotoLance: he’s not whistling dixie here, just look in his eyes….

  6. Scott says:
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    OK Roto, I’ve got:

    Ziegler
    Kimbrel
    Vizcaino
    Doolittle
    Hector Rondon
    Bruce Rondon

    Let’s say I drop 2 of them. Which 2?

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Scott: What, you can’t trade them?

      1. Bruce Rondon
      2. Arodys Vizcaino
      (I guess)

      Doolittle is in the mix (to drop) too, can’t be sure how good he will be.

  7. Scott says:
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    FWIW, dude. I held on to Hector Rondon because of your advice, and picked him up where he was dropped. Now I’m reaping the rewards. Thanks man!

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Scott: I’m not sure if that was my advice, honestly. Well, when Maddon first started changing his closers I told people Strop was the guy, although I didn’t necessarily tell people to drop Rondon, I don’t think. Maybe I did.

      Certainly when it got sorted out more recently I told people to grab him.

  8. The Big Yabu says:
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    Have I missed some kind of news about A.J. Ramos? He’s been dropped in both of my RCLs, and I can’t figure out why. Sure, he sucks — but … SAGNOF!

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @The Big Yabu: I’m left thinking the same thing. He did walk 3 batters in the outing where he gave up 4 runs but then he went 6 straight outings with 0 walks. That’s all I got.

      • The Big Yabu says:
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        @RotoLance: Well then, time to put in my waiver-claims!
        Also: in a different league, drop Jepsen or Tazawa for Wilhelmsen? Tazawa has been terrible for a while, and it seems like Perkins is back to unseat Jepsen — but McClendon is so unpredictable, it’s hard to count on him to stick with Wilhelmsen…

        • The Big Yabu says:
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          @The Big Yabu: Never mind, just noticed the list at the end of the first half of the article. Man, there needs to be a way to delete dumb comments like mine!

          • RotoLance

            RotoLance says:
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            @The Big Yabu: I found this update on Wilhelmsen v Smith

            “@GregJohnsMLB

            McClendon says Tom Wilhelmsen will be in closing role again tonight if needed, but taking that situation day to day.”

  9. BreakOut says:
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    Nice title.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @BreakOut: Thanks for reading.

  10. Tomy says:
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    Drop blanco or inciarte for yelich need speed

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Tomy: Those are similar players. I’m not really sure which one offers the best speed.. But I think Yelich is the best overall package.

    • RotoLance

      RotoLance says:
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      @Tomy: Oh sorry, I should have said Inciarte for Yelich, I guess. Keep Blanco.

      • Mobin Couldn't Hack It says:
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        @RotoLance: blanco losing playing time big time, per at bat he’s best steals source though.

        • RotoLance

          RotoLance says:
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          @Mobin Couldn’t Hack It: I wouldn’t mind if you told _him_ that. I’ll see it either way.

Comments are closed.