So you’re telling me if the Mets played in Coors field every night, they’d be the highest scoring team in baseball instead of bottom 5, where they were pre-Coors? Huh, 33 runs in 3 games ain’t too shabby and I hope you benefited from Yoenis Cespedes’ onslaught Friday night. I managed to somehow cash without him, but I couldn’t touch the top spots. The Mets have clearly sacrificed some chickens to Jobu over the past month. The good fortune continues as they go from beating up on Rockies pitchers in Coors to now getting to feast on Philly pitching in Citizens Bank Park. Here’s some fun with numbers: in the month of August, the Mets are 5th in Runs, 1st in doubles, 4th in HRs and 3rd in team OPS, one of my favorite stats to look at. As I write this, I just watched Daniel Murphy hit the 7th HR of the the game for the Mets, tying a franchise record. So, how much of this new found offense is Cespedes induced? Well, he hasn’t exactly been cold, his slash line since joining the Mets: Tonight the human Cespedes gets to dine on the shizz that is Jerome Williams’ right arm. Sky, in his recent roundup, mentioned Jerome’s reverse splits this season. Much like the hips, Sky don’t lie. The numbers this year vs. RHB: .336/.363/.597 and vs. LHB: .315/.379/.399 tell you all you need to know. Of course as you can see, everyone is hitting for a hall of fame average off the guy, so you really can’t go wrong when throwing anyone and everyone out there at him, but righties are especially brutalizing him. Reverse splits are fairly screwy, I tend to think they normalize over time, but there are exceptions, like in everything. For his career, Williams’ marks are generous to both handed hitters. Lefties enjoy a better batting average and OBP while righties have a higher slugging percentage. That’s over a 12 year career of course and things change with age. For example, a bag of garbage left in a black trash can in the middle of summer gets much worse with age. Jerome is said bag of garbage and the hot summer months aren’t being kind to him. With any luck, people will take a quick glance as guys like Curtis Granderson (L) and Michael Conforto (L) are highly owned and Cespedes sneaks under the radar. I need you tonight, Yoenis, don’t let me down. Here are some more picks for tonight’s slate:
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Noah Syndergaard, SP: $10,900 – I was burned hard by deGrom last night, but I’m willing to double down on Mets arms tonight. Eventually the talent of Thor has to win out and he he’ll overcome his road woes. Away from Metco he has an ugly 5.05 ERA and is without a win, but he’s too good to be homeschooler. There’s some risk involved, but the upside is big against a weak Philly lineup and for $1,600 less than Arrieta, I’m willing to roll the dice. Thor will be my top pitching target tonight.
Nate Karns, SP: $8,300 – It’s taken me this long, but I can admit when I’m wrong. Back in April I looked at Nate’s 5+ ERA and 1.4+ WHIP in AAA last season and scoffed, targeting him at will. I should have never doubted the Rays ability to make something out of absolutely nothing when it comes to starting pitching. I don’t understand how his WHIP is so low and I still feel like he can go dumpster fire at a moment’s notice, but I’ll take a shot tonight when he’s facing the Twins. I just hope he doesn’t decide to prove my original analysis correct now that I’m finally on board. Shout out to frequent commenter (and pretty durn good fantasy baseballer) Cram It who nailed his Karns call way back in April. Way to go Crammy!
Charlie Morton, SP: $7,100 – The Marlins without Giancarlo are always a team I look to pick against, especially in Crayola Canyon. Morton has had trouble with consistency this year but I’m hoping his new found uptick in strikeouts can help him put together three straight quality starts. When it rains it pours for Morton, I’m predicting tonight it’s cloudy with a chance of Ks.
Josh Tomlin, SP: $5,700 – I won’t go any cheaper than Tomlin tonight, everything below him is terrifying. Tomlin isn’t all unicorns and fairy dust, but at least he’s got a shot at earning his price tag. In his first two starts since his recall the 11:2 K:BB ratio is encouraging. Even if we can get 6 IP and 3 ERs run out of him for this price, that’d be a win. Speaking of wins, Vegas has the Indians and Tomlin as a surprising large -140 vs. Peralta and the Brewers. I don’t know about you, but I like being on the same side as Vegas.
John Jaso, C: $2,900 – John Jaso Jingleheimer Schmidt is one of those lefty catchers that I really have a thing for. It also helps that he hits leadoff, not many catchers will see as many ABs as Jaso can. It also helps that he faces Ervin Santana tonight who has been handing out earned runs like candy lately. Finally, if you’re into such things, Jaso is a nice 8 for 21 with a HR off Santana in his career.
Mike Napoli, 1B: $3,600 – Miggy and Jose Abreu are you clear top choices at 1B tonight, but if you’re looking to save some dough at the spot, Mike Napoli could provide a nice return. Napoli is a bit of a forgotten man these days and might be a nice GPP play because of that. He gets the ageless wonder Mark Buehrle who he’s 7 for 27 with a HR against.
Victor Martinez, 1B: $3,200 – Speaking of forgotten men, here’s V-Mart. Nothing about V-Mart is thrilling these days, but he’s cheap exposure to Weaver in a prime batting order spot. I always like to pick on Weaver in case he has a day where that 80 MPH “heater” is just a BP pitch.
Ian Kinsler, 2B: $4,300 – And as long as we’re on Weaver I’ll stick with the theme of recommending guys with nice BvP numbers. Kinsler is 20/88 with 3 HRs and 4 SBs off Weaver in his career. If I’m getting any exposure to Weaver outside of Miggy, it will be with Kinsler.
Chris Coghlan, 2B/OF: $3,000 – Big Magoo just gave you his Chris Coghlan fantasy the other day and I couldn’t agree more with the big man. I love Coghlan, have all season, he’s been a batty call deluxe and a DFS joy when facing a RHP. Now that he’s added 2B eligibility his value is even greater. $3,000 is an absolute steal here.
Kyle Seager, 3B: $3,300 – Kyle Seager gets no respect. I like this price range for 3B tonight and it was hard to pick just two but Seager gets the nod against Chavez tonight. Chavez has struggled vs. the Mariners, giving up 4 ERs in each of the two starts he’s had against them this year. All those lefties can really do a number on a righty and I think Seager jumps on board tonight.
Nick Castellanos, 3B: $3,300 – Nick has a bit of a hot streak going and of course, gets us some more cheap exposure to Weaver, which we like.
Wilmer Flores, 2B/SS: $3,600 – Flores gives us even more exposure that we like, this time to Jerome Williams. Flores has been clobbering baseballs of late. He’s got a 6 game hitting streak working with 3 HRs mixed in there.
Justin Upton, OF: $3,900 – I’m really not typically a huge BvP guy, but things are just popping out at me today, so I’m rolling with it. I watch a lot of Braves games and they always seemed to crush Strasburg when they faced him the past couple years. J-Up was a big part of that and it shows in his career numbers vs. Stras: 9/29, 2 HRs and 3 SBs. I doubt a ton of people will be on him with the way Strasburg has been pitching, so take note GPPers.
Chris Colabello, OF: $3,700 – There’s so many nice matchups, I almost forgot to mention the Blue Jays getting to face Rangers starting pitching. Josh Donaldson is all the way up at $6,400 for his date with Holland. That’s just crazy cakes, but you can go dutch and pick up Colabello for a little more than half that.
Rusney Castillo, OF: $3,600 – I’ve been tooting Rusney’s horn since he started the year in AAA and he’s finally showing the reason I was so high on him. When facing LHP, he and his .996 OPS against them have been especially fun to watch. This is a very nice price for someone with such high upside on a nightly basis.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
It’s been a great week of baseball weather, play ball, not weatherman!
Doing Lines In Vegas
The Mets and Noah Syndergaard are -200 favorites on the road in Philly. They are the night’s biggest favorites. TOR@TEX has the night’s highest over/under at 9.5 runs. On the flip side, The Cubs vs. Giants game has a 6.5 run over/under, the lowest on the night for Arrieta vs. Cain.
