His name is Bills because his parents were told at the hospital that you can’t put an apostrophe in a name, and got mixed up when the nurse asked, “Whose birth certificate will this be?” and they said, “Bills.” Bills is now 34 and wears jorts and an American flag tie-dyed t-shirt all year. Same ones. Doesn’t have five dozen of the same shirt and jorts, but Bills sometimes tells people he does. Bills’s jorts remain fresh because he washes them every night, though this has caused them to fray. Bills has one love, fireworks on July 4th. Bills travels all around the Midwest, picking up fireworks at 24-hour fireworks stores. Bills laughs when people question why a fireworks store would be open 24 hours a day. Bills says, “For when you can’t sleep.” Now, if Bills were to set up all his fireworks on July 3rd and fire them off at midnight on July 4th, Bills would be Jeff Luhnow. On Sunday, Carlos Correa was called up, and wasting no time, he followed that up with Vincent Velasquez, the Astros prized pitching prospect. His fireworks cannon was filled, and he’s firing! Prospector Mike said this offseason, “While Mark Appel pushes into #2 starter territory, Velasquez sits comfortably with #3 starter upside and shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s got Tommy John on the books already and missed some time this past year with a groin issue, so his development has been slowed a bit, but he’s got two plus pitches in his fastball/changeup and he survived a 55 inning stint at High-A Lancaster. Despite the missed time, Velasquez could see the majors quickly thanks to above average command of his fastball. To give you an idea of a different above-average command, ‘Die, Grey, die.'” Hey, what’s the big idea?! This year in Double-A, Velasquez had a 12.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and 1.37 ERA. Basically, drool, drool and more drool. I tried to grab him in every league, but I was too slow. He’s worth the flyer to see if he surprises hitters with his 95 MPH fastball and devastating change. There’s a real chance here for some fireworks for Bills. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
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I’ve used a similar open before, so rounding to the point – there’s a ton of players in baseball… It’s why fantasy baseball rules the land – there’s no end to how deep it goes (that’s what she said!). You can play 10 team, 12 team RCL, AL and NL only, and I’m hoping to start up a 30 teamer next year. The possibilities are endless!
And even within the abyss of players that will contribute to an MLB season, I’m only looking at starting pitchers and even then I miss tons of things! It’s not like I scan every starter’s game log and peripherals every single week, so guys will occasionally fall through the cracks. One such example is Trevor May, who I thought was still having egregious control problems. I looked at his ERA and WHIP in passing on the wire, and gave it an ol’ shrug-a-roosky. But then I started digging into the numbers after his huge 7-inning two-hitter, and realized he was much more than a butterface. Kinda like realizing you could hop on board of that! “It’s not the sweater, but what’s underneath that counts!” I was then on the verge of picking up May after seeing his 50:9 K:BB in 56.1 innings this year, remembering he was a pretty hot prospect despite walking everyone in his limited time last season. I watched an early 2014 start and it was something like that uber-fail Tyler Matzek debacle (58 pitches, 20 strikes?!). So I decided that May would be a perfect pitcher to Profile (and Peter Piper picked peppers!) to see just how dominant his start was last Wednesday at the Red Sox. I know I usually pick a pitcher who started over the weekend, but I’m selfish and I’m using this week’s post for my own add/drop evaluation needs! Here’s how May looked:
Please, blog, may I have some more?
SAGNOF Special, Week 9: Forecasting Speed and Saves
June 8, 2015 | Closers, Steals | 27 Commentsby: RotoLance
Last week I implored you to consider your options in selling Steven Souza, a player who seemed to be at his peak at that time. Yes, I told you to consider moving a player that has been stellar so far. The thing is, what a player’s done doesn’t really move me. All I care about is what a player is going to do. That means past stats are only important insofar as they predict future stats. So when I see that a player has hit 15 home runs so far, or stolen 12 bases so far, all I really care about is to what degree is that level of production sustainable. I came to the “sell” conclusion for Steven Souza by using peripheral statstics, primarily his HR/FB% (unsustainable) and K% (too high and likely to not go down much). Going back to a May 4th post, I mentioned offhand that Jake Marisnick was a sell high. His AVG/SLG at the time it was published: .382/.632. His AVG/SLG since that time: .172/.242. That’s not to say I’m a soothsayer. Or to say that’s precisely how regression to the mean works. So why did that happen? Because baseball. But I do think it’s an example of why we, excepting those times when peripheral stats suggest otherwise, should trust the projections and use the peripheral stats they are based on.
Please, blog, may I have some more?The Razzball Pod is back! On today’s show we talk about Mark Trumbo‘s trade to Seattle and the possible opening for Peter O’Brien in Zona, Anthony Rendon‘s return from the DL, and a big week for young pitchers hurling big games. JB & Grey love the Trevor May! Working on my ebb & flow right there! We also catch your Twitter questions and take a look at the RCL leaderboard. Hint! I’m nowhere near the top in either of my RCL leagues… Here’s the newest edition of the Razzball Baseball Podcast:
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Yeah, yeah, normally I open with something about a player but today I just ain’t doing it. Instead, I’m going to point out something I enjoy personally about the DFS world that, oddly, hasn’t happened much for my day of the week this year: the short slate. Today we have eight games on the docket which is a healthy amount and yet not one that requires an overload of breakdown or information. If you’re a novice or are still cutting your teeth on this silly little game we play, I strongly encourage you to take advantage of days like this or to sign up for games built around the ‘turbo’, ‘early’, or ‘late’ sets. These tend to be slates catering to smaller amounts of games played. They’re good for cash games, which in turn are good for your wallet, which in turn is good for your spinning of the wheel on the bigger slates and some tourney goodness. Anywhere from a five game to up to an eight or even nine is a nice place to be in my book. But enough about my weird novella, let us break it down. Here’s my flaming hot takes for the Monday DK slate…
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Please, blog, may I have some more?The title comes from Rudyard Gamble’s novel about a young Astros prospect named Carlos Correa that is saved by a non-Portuguese man named Jeff. Jeff Luhnow is his full name, and he’s the only straight man named Jeff in the northern hemisphere. A point that Rudyard only alludes to in the 4th chapter, when he says, “As he read the Doppler radar outputs that track the ball in three dimensions, Jeff chewed corn from the cob, careful to not disturb his mustache that still had the fragrance of a dame.” The adventure novel is full of twists and turns. Correa is signed as a 17-year-old in 2012 and hits, then is called up to Single-A and hits, then is called up to High-A and hits, then is called up to Double-A–Now that I think about it, it’s pretty straightforward. Not too many twists. Correa hits everywhere he goes. According to the novel, Correa even succeeds when he comes upon a fellmonger on the Appalachian plain. Rudyard’s adventure novel first appeared in serialisation form in SABReader’s Digest underneath the horoscope. A fact that once disturbed Rudyard, but when his horoscope read, “The two-plus months of waiting are over, Correa’s being called up,” even he took pause. Any the hoo! I already went over my Carlos Correa fantasy about two weeks ago. I told everyone to grab him then, so the same holds true now. If you don’t think you have room, think of the trouble Jeff, Rudyard and Correa went through to make this possible. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more?
I hope you don’t think I’m doing a BTO theme today with that title. I’m not Homer. When it comes to Canadian rock they are not my cup of tea, I’m a Guess Who fan. You know, the band where the “B” in BTO came from. The band loved in Almost Famous by Lester Bangs (played by Phillip Seymour Hoffman). Seriously, Live at the Paramount is one of my favorite live albums. From Pain Train to Sour Suite, the album hits it on lots of levels for me. Speaking of sour/sweet, I made a trade for Howie Kendrick this week by giving up Jason Grilli. Sweet! Now Howie’s got uncertain knee issue… Sour! Which leads me to my creeper pick, Justin Turner, and the opportunities that Mattingly can’t ignore. His usage patterns leave me very sour while the production of these “part-time players” is sweet! He said he doesn’t want to run Turner into the ground, unlike his bullpen, which Donny feels a need to regularly run into the ground. Yimi was such a beautiful creature of K/9. So please, take his usage with a bit of caution this week as I tell you to own him and get him in your line-up. But be careful of the sour/sweet.
Please, blog, may I have some more?I ate a ton of asparagus yesterday and my pee stinks. I also spent most of the day drinking tall boys in a kiddie pool. I spent about 3 hours trying to make a YouTube video of me blowing up chipmunks with bottle rockets. Didn’t work out, and I still found time to checkout the DFS happenings for today. If you’ve looked at the pitching roster then you know it’s arms on arms today. Cole, Archer, deGrom, Greinke, Cueto, Carrasco, Zimmermann, and there’s still more. The long and the short there’s a ton of options. So let’s just get something out of the way I’m not going to suggest you play Cole, Archer, or deGrom. I assume you’re well aware of how good they are. You should also recognize that starting one of those three as your SP1 is a necessity in all cash games. The question then becomes do you go double aces or do you pair one with the second level of starters. Today’s a great day for the second tier. Lets talk about a few of the options I like.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Every other week Razzball ranks the prospects closest to contributing to your fantasy roster. The list is limited to players who still have rookie eligibility (less than 130 at bats or 50 innings pitched) and who are currently in the minor leagues. It’s not a list based on talent alone, but rather it’s a mixture of talent and opportunity. It will change frequently over the course of the season as prospects graduate to the majors, injuries occur, or service time roadblocks are passed. Here are the top 15 prospects on the cusp of the major leagues for 2015 fantasy baseball…
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Two Start Pitchers, Week 10: Momma Said Punch You Out
June 6, 2015 | Two Start Fantasy Starters | 52 Commentsby: Geoff
In my never ending quest to blend two start pitchers and nostalgia, I stumbled upon a even better spin-off of last week’s premise. In Week 9’s post we dove head first into a little Nintendo nostalgia (awesome band name BTW) and a cornucopia of rad games were discussed. Seemed like everyone had opinions on Battletoads. Interesting because I always thought that hands down Battletoads held the record for most frustrated controller throws induced. Frustration City Beeyatch! The most discussed game by a large measure was the classic pastime of the pugilistic arts “Mike Tyson’s Punchout”. Some of you claim to have defeated Tyson with Little Mac, to which I say “You’re a bunch of stinkin’ Liars”. Seriously lasting one round with Tyson in and of it self was a victory. Then again maybe King Of Kong Billy Mitchell is reading the Razz, I suppose one never knows. I mean all of you could actually be productive and upstanding members of society! Feel like I might be giving our readers a bit too much credit. Go ahead take it for what it’s worth. Regardless Mike Tyson’s Punchout is this week’s theme. So the tiers will be listed by character and we can discuss everyone’s exploits with “Little Mac” in the comments. I wonder if that’s what Mark McGuire calls his junk?
Chi Chi Dancing Cha Cha After Shutout
June 6, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 96 Commentsby: Dan Pants
After beginning his career almost no-hitting the Red Sox through six innings last Saturday, the legend of Chi Chi Gonzalez, whether I mean that ironically or not, continued Friday night with a complete game 3-hit shutout of the Kansas City Royals for his second win. He allowed just five base runners in all, striking out two. Oh, hello there. I am now intrigued. *Raises eyebrow, googles stats* Err. O…k. Despite my intriguement, in 43.1 innings at AAA, Chi Chi posted a 4.15 ERA with a 26/19 K/BB rate. Hmm. Well, that’s not very good at all. Still, I am not one to stare a gift horse in the butt. That’s how you get kicked in the teeth. Gonzalez has now pitched 14.2 scoreless innings to start his MLB career, allowing just five hits. Let’s focus on that. So maybe he’s almost walked twice as many batters as he’s struck out. Fair enough. I’m not saying he’s here to save your team, but he gets the Oakland A’s next week and should certainly be worthy of a ping on your fantasy radar at this point.
Here’s what else happened Friday night in fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Today is the first Saturday in June, and the first day that it really feels like summertime. At least in Southern California it does. Warm weather and baseball just go hand-in-hand. So if you’re not at a game today, fulfill your Saturday baseball with some Razzball picks on DraftKings. Starting Pitchers are your most important position. Are you going to spend your money on a young unproven rookie pitcher, or a pricey proven pitcher that “should” run up your score? It’s a hard decision sometimes, but when you have choices like today, you should feel good about your chances. My strategies usually consist a little of both. Play it safer in 50/50’s. For example, if you’re in a 100 person entry, you can pretty much count on pitchers like Kershaw and King Felix to be owned around two-thirds to three-quarters of the league. You aren’t going to want to gamble and pick Lorenzen and another low to mid-tier pitcher and stack heavy on hitting. You’ll usually get the most points out of you pitchers, so my strategy is to play it safe and stick with the heavy priced pitchers. However, if I’m playing a big ‘Guaranteed’ entry where there are thousands of entries and thousands of dollars to be won in a top five finish, I’m gambling a lot more, and not spending my money on Kershaw and King Felix. It’s all or nothing for me in those type of entries. I’m not saying I’d start Lorenzen and a low-tier pitcher, but I’m certainly not picking the two pitchers which I think will be owned the most. What has worked for you? Have you had a really big win on DraftKings? Share you success in the comments below and tweet at me using #RazzballReader. Enjoy the games!
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
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