I hate it when the vagueness of an arm injury slams your roster and places the top closer on the DL. Andrew Miller hit it yesterday with a forearm strain. How could it be strained if there are fore of them? I mean aren’t the other three there, to be like, back-up dancers? The only good thing for you and the Yankees is that there is another top-5 relief pitcher in the mix. Dellin Betances will take over as the lead sled dog in the saves in the Bronx. After that, on the off chance you need a third option, there is Adam Warren, which is a deep shot in the dark. Crazy as that sounds, and I dig that he is still starting, but if this drags out for Miller, he could return to what was excellent form from out of the pen last year. If by all intents and purposes you are reaching this far down for saves or speculating that the Yankees are in trouble… then stick around for some extra tidbits, there are a quite few this week. Cheers!
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When life gives you lemons, you don’t make lemonade. Instead, you throw those fothermuckers back at life, because lemons by themselves suck.
That’s kind of how the DraftKings slate has been on Thursdays so far this season. The last two weeks aside, there weren’t many lineups that I made on a Thursday where I was actually happy with it. That trend continues today, as it’s not a who’s who of pitchers, but more like a who… the hell am I going to play today?
Let’s get straight to the (hopeful) cash, homie.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Member how I was saying yesterday that I owned Zack Cozart in multiple leagues, and he was a top five shortstop this year on our Player Rater, but I didn’t really appreciate him? Do I even need to tell you what happened next? Can you guess? If you hold your ear to the computer, does it help you guess? Cozart lunged for the 1st base bag as he was going down the line, hyperextended his knee and is headed to the DL. Einstein was right, “Absence does make the heart grow fonder.” Or maybe that was Peabo Bryson. I always confuse those two on attributing quotes. It’s usually one or the other. Was it Peabo Bryson who did the theory of relativity? Why can’t I spell genius without spellchecker? Questions for another day. One potential fill-in is Ivan De Jesus (1-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 2nd homer). De Jesus now has homers in two of three games, that’s twice as many homers as his dad had in his final 600 plate appearances. With Cozart out for who knows how long, De Jesus Jr., or as Christians and Nike marketers like to call him Lil’ Jesus, could be the shortstop, but so could Kris Negron (1-for-4). Negron, please! If it’s Lil’ Jesus, well, it’s worse than Negron, please! Lil’ Jesus doesn’t have much power or speed, while Negron, please, at least swiped 30+ bags one year in the minors. Neither are advisable outside of NL-Only leagues. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more?Yesterday, I shared the latest confidence-affirming test on the Razzball daily MLB projections. Today, I have some great news on how you will be able to make the most out of our projections.
We have partnered with Lineup Lab to create a fantastic lineup optimizer. It is FREE for all DFS Premium subscribers for at least the month of June. For the low price of $9.99/month (or FREE if you open up a new DFS account), you will get our projections and this lineup optimizer for this month).
The optimizers can be accessed via the below links or via the Tools Menu.
https://razzball.com/dfsbot-draftkings-optimizer
https://razzball.com/dfsbot-fanduel-optimizer
Like some of you, I have been using an Excel-based ‘Solver’ to optimize our DFS projections. After doing side-by-side comparisons, I can say with certainty that the Lineup Lab optimizer is superior. Here are some of the examples…
Please, blog, may I have some more?What if I told you that with just the click of a button you could have your fantasy lineup set for you. Would you find this idea interesting? If you are 1) sometimes lazy in setting your lineup or 2) interested in the what the logic behind choosing the optimal lineup should be, then hopefully you answered yes to this question. In typical Greysian fashion there is no 3), but I imagine there are people that would fall into a third category as well.
If you find yourself curious about the technical details of how this is done, scroll down because I’m going to save that for the end of the article. What I’d like to jump right into instead, is the algorithm that will determine what the optimal lineup is for a fantasy team, because I think that’s the most interesting and nuanced part of this whole process.
Please, blog, may I have some more?We’re entering the safe zone for the Super-Two cutoff, and with that comes the promotion of many top prospects. The Astros made a big splash on Monday when they called up Carlos Correa, but later tonight another solid prospect from the Houston farm will make his big league debut. Right-hander Vincent Velasquez ranked 5th on my Astros Top 10 entering the season, although I honestly didn’t expect him to make an impact until 2016. He’s forced his way into the bigs with his performance, however, and he’ll join fellow 2015 call-up Lance McCullers in the Houston rotation. Like McCullers, Velasquez will make the jump straight from Double-A to the majors. That might cause some fantasy owners to be shy about grabbing him, but as Grey mentioned yesterday in his Velasquez fantasy, the 23-year-old is worth a flyer in pretty much all leagues thanks to his nasty stuff. McCullers is already close to cracking JB’s Top 50 starters, and Velasquez was a higher-ranked prospect entering the season. Can Velasquez pull off a McCullers or even surpass him for the rest of 2015? Let’s take a closer look in this week’s profile…
Please, blog, may I have some more?Sometimes you think you know what a player is. He’s a stud. He’s a stiff. He’s hot. He’s not. And so on. Players get labels pretty quick as they come into our consciousness and it’s awfully hard to shake that.
The same goes for teams throughout a season. Oh, they aren’t hitting well or that’s a hitter’s park. These types of unwitting biases can keep you from rostering the exact players you need to win so it’s important that you keep investigating the trends that are going on throughout the season.
Those that though, prior to the 2014 season, that Anthony Rizzo can’t hit lefties were right…..prior to that season. In 2015, Rizzo broke out and it was, in a significant part, due to a much improved approach against LHP. Those that didn’t just accept the current track record were rewarded when they rostered Rizzo against lefties when few other people did.
This season, maybe it’s a guy like Tampa’s Erasmo Ramirez, who looks to be turning the corner as a pitcher and has put up some solid numbers so far this season. You might write him off as stinky based on prior track record or by him burning you when you did roster him, but a look at the most recent 30 days show a different story.
It’s a good idea to look at a player’s metrics over the last 30 days or so to get an idea which way the player it trending or if he’s been able to continue a trend that he hasn’t exhibited before. You’re likely to find some player emerging and give you an edge over your competitors who are still reading last month’s news.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Please, blog, may I have some more?When Chris Heston entered the 1st inning and said, “Keep your stupid bats off my pitches, you damn dirty Mets,” we should’ve known we were in for a historic night. Or at least a histrionic one. I was between Mike Foltynewicz (5 2/3 IP, 5 ER) and Heston to stream yesterday, and, well, you can imagine who I went with. What’s wrong with me, Dr. Zaius? Dr. Zaius, Dr. Zaius, Dr. Zaius, Dr. Zaius, Dr. Zaius, Dr. Zaius, ooooooooh, Dr. Zaius. Help me, Dr. Zaius! Yesterday, Heston pitched a no hitter against the Mets, striking out eleven, and just missed a perfect game, due to hitting three batters. Those batters Heston plunked likely critiqued his acting in Soylent Green or supported the Brady Handgun Bill. After this game, Heston’s numbers look like a fantasy #2 (8 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 3.21 xFIP), but, since he throws around 89 MPH, I’d limit his exposure against tougher hitting teams on the road. Obviously, he’s worth owning. On a concluding note, I hate every streamer I see, from streamer A to Chumpanzee. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more?Fantasy baseball brings out the competitive bastard in me. Expert leagues, NFBC, and DFS sites like DraftKings are the standard targets of my affliction but I also get obsessive about our daily projections. Short of maybe gambling and winning big bucks in DFS (not going to happen with my limited risk tolerance), it is hard to find ways to test the quality of our daily projections.
It is not for lack of trying. I compare our DFS hitter and pitcher point projections against DFS site salaries in our DFSBot on our Ombotsman page and – going back to May 2014 – there has yet to be a month where a DFS site’s salary has outperformed us. I did a 2 month test last year against ESPN Fantasy Forecaster that showed our starting pitcher projections were superior. I tested last year’s projections against hitter and pitcher recent game data to find areas that could use improvement (highlighted pitcher IP should leverage recent starts more).
As I was contemplating new targets to compare against, I was IM’ing with our lead DFS writer (Sky) and he noted that he looks at Vegas Over/Under estimates for Runs when considering teams to stack. That got me thinking…I could go for some pancakes. After eating those pancakes, I thought, “What if I test our projections against Vegas!”. Then I napped.
Yada yada yada, below are the (favorable) test results versus Las Vegas MLB lines. See bottom of post for some testing notes. As an added bonus (until someone pays me to take them down), DFS Premium subscribers can see these team run projections updated every day (for today + at least the next 6 days) on our Teamonator page.
Please visit our Subscription page for more information on our daily projection subscription packages. We offer daily, monthly, and season long packages – catering both to the Roto and DFS player (if you play both, even better).
Also, stay tuned tomorrow for an awesome addition to DFSBot!!!
Please, blog, may I have some more?Joey Gallo (+71.3%) was the most added player in fantasy baseball this past week. The 21-year-old top prospect was a bit of a surprise call-up by the Texas Rangers following the injury to Adrian Beltre, but fantasy owners don’t seem to be complaining. That’s because of what Gallo brings to the table. Power. Lots and lots of power. Since being drafted in 2012, he’s hit an incredible 113 homers in 330 minor league games, including 30 in 102 games at the Double-A level over the past two seasons. On the flip side, Gallo strikes out at a rate that makes Mark Reynolds look like a contact hitter. His 33.6% K% in Double-A this season was actually a substantial improvement over his 39.5% K% across nearly three months at that level in 2014. For the rest of this season, expect some tape measure shots with a few golden sombreros mixed in. Here were a couple of other big adds and drops in fantasy baseball from this past week:
Please, blog, may I have some more?Here we are again to talk about you, because who really wants to talk about fantasy baseball players all the time? Wouldn’t you rather talk about fantasy baseball playa’s? Tehol talks about dragons, bad actors, and himself every week and we all read that. When I thought about what to make from ten, I thought of Razzballs Missing Link, the Pacfic Northwest Skysquatch. Drunkest yeti ever! I assume because he is from the rainy part of the country that he must own Ten. I was never really a big fan of Pearl Jam but I have to assume Ten is owned like Frampton Comes Alive. Funny Pearl Jam story, back in like 98-99ish, my buddy Chuck got two tickets to a Pearl Jam concert at the Forum with a special guest. I wanted no part of it, but he needed a ride so I asked my girlfriend if she wanted to go so she could drive. Long story short, the special guest was “X” and for those that follow my music could understand the pain that caused me when I found out what I missed. Cool follow up though, I ended up seeing them at Street Scene in San Diego years later the same night I saw James Brown before he passed. Even funnier James Brown story, this one time … I had no James Brown story. What? A whole intro with no link, Jay can’t have that kind of satisfaction. Pearl Jam…X….James Brown!
Please, blog, may I have some more?If Friday, when I last wrote, was the worst pitching day I had ever seen, this one looks fantastic. Aces abound. Congrats if you recognize the reference from my title. One of my favorite movie scenes from a great movie, Rounders. Classic really, it could be a little overplayed and some may say overrated, but I’m a big fan. It’s an aces full day and so I’m going to skip to fellas I’ll be looking to pair with my aces. Some folks will pay up and pair two aces tonight, it’s a matter of your own personal strategy and risk assessment. Two aces will be more “safe”. Kluber/Syndergaard will probably be amazing. Scherzer/Gray, that would most likely be incredible. However, with a game in Coors and some high priced bats, I’m much more likely to take one lower tier ace (like Syndergaard for instance) and pair him with a cheap upside play, someone such as Mike Foltynewicz. Mike’s point totals throughout May are a bit of a mixed bag, but his strikeouts are not. Starting May 6th his K totals are: 7, 7, 7, 7, 8, 5. San Diego is willing to play along as they rank 3rd in MLB in Ks right now. They’re an all or nothing, HR or strikeout style team a’la the Astros. For $7,200, I’ll take my chances that tonight is a nothing night and the kid can rack up the Ks at home. Let’s look at a couple more value pitchers to pair with our aces.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Please, blog, may I have some more?