Maybe You Should Fade Elite Starting Pitchers

Hello, again. Thanks for stopping by. I’m noticing talk ramping up around the fantasy baseball world on how to approach pitching with the short season coming up. It’s looking more and more like we’re going to get the shortest end of the stick the owners want us to get, if we get anything at all. I’m honestly not overly optimistic we get baseball in 2020, but I’m going to operate under the assumption we will get 48-ish games at least. So, if that’s the case, that sure ain’t a lotta starts per starting pitcher. I mean it’s like 10 tops, assuming the typical five-man rotation. So, what, 70-80 IP maximum? In a perfect world it’d be 90 with 10 complete games, so let’s shave a few off for safe measure.

It seems a bit counter-intuitive to suggest fading the top guys, at first glance. “But, like, JKJ, if there aren’t as many starts, don’t you want the best of the best to increase your chances of those being good starts?” you may ask. While I see the logic and merit in that mindset, I think you could get similar returns from non-top-tier guys in a drastically shortened season. It’s really their longevity and big innings that put them ahead of the pack.

Please understand that this entire premise I’m about to get into hinges on the assumption of a 48- or 50-something game season. If somehow the owners and players agree on something with more games very soon (and it would need to be super duper soon), then this kind of all goes up in smoke. Simply put, the longer the season, the more the big-name starters will rise to the top in fantasy baseball.

Here’s what I’m gonna do. I’m gonna take a look-see at the top-10 drafted SPs on NFBC since May 1st. I’m gonna compare how they started 2019 to how they finished, but in a very, very general sense. There will be no deep dives or airtight analysis. I’m not going to look at why things might have been this or that. Just results, cuz that’s all that matters in fantasy. You can pick apart change in repertoire, pitch usage, .BABIP, weather, what underwear they were wearing, how many beers they chugged the night before, what have you. I’m not considering much outside of the final numbers. This is just an experiment that I found interesting. A kind of putting-it-out-there discussion starter, if you will.

All I want to do right now is just get a broad feel for their respective 2019 seasons. I’ll do this by showing you simple split stats by month. In doing so, you’ll see that, more often than not, the season started off worse than it finished. Guess what, though? When you think about it, we’ll be getting just the first two months of these charts, more or less. This isn’t to say those early season numbers are bad, yet in some cases they aren’t mouth-watering. But I found it interesting these players almost always helped fantasy owners more in the later months after getting things ironed out throughout the season. Thing is, there’s just not time for that now.

The advantage these guys offer in a full season is lots of innings, probably lots of wins, lots of strikeouts, and good ratios. Basically, um, elite-ness. It’s why they get drafted so high. Duh. But we aren’t getting a full season. IP will not matter nearly as much in 2020. Guys who were looking at innings-limits aren’t anymore. Ratios could be ruined by just two or three outings. These workhorse types just aren’t as sexy to me this year. What’s 70-80 IP of Pitcher A compared to 50-60 IP of Pitcher B if they have similar results? That gap is enormous if we’re talking 200+ IP compared to 150-170 or something. That means significantly more strikeouts, probably more quality starts, and more points if you’re in a points league that counts IP (not to mention points for those extra Ks – that just seemed a little redundant to mention, but here it is anyway). But in this tiny season? I don’t think it’s worth it to pay for a top-end workhorse.

My stance is I’d much rather pay early for bats. They do play like four or fives times as many games as a starting pitcher does, after all. For me, I want that safer early investment as opposed to a pitcher who could start off poorly and really completely derail things from the get-go. Remember, there’s not much time at all for stats to normalize. There won’t be any bad stretches that are “just how it goes.” If it goes down like that, your fantasy team is screwed. A bat has way more chances to help you. I mean, listen y’all, I’m not saying fade pitching entirely and just scoop up the dregs at the end. I’m just saying maybe pass on that shiny starter and wait for someone else who will still give you good innings.

Okay, let’s take a brief look at the recent top 10.

NFBC Top-10 Drafted SPs Since May 1st

1). Gerrit Cole (Overall ADP 6.42)

2). Jacob deGrom (Overall ADP 8)

3). Walker Buehler (Overall ADP 14.50)

4). Max Scherzer (Overall ADP 16.42)

5). Justin Verlander (Overall ADP 20.42)

6). Jack Flaherty (Overall ADP 21.83)

7). Shane Bieber (Overall ADP 27.17)

8). Mike Clevinger (Overall ADP 27.92)

Going almost in the same spot is Bieber’s teammate Mike Clevinger. His case is a lot trickier for this experiment given we didn’t get regular Clevinger time until July really, and then he goes and gets gradually worse (still hella good) from July through September. So he’s totally backwards and not helping my case at all. But if we look at 2018, he more or less finished stronger than he started, especially in the strikeout department.

9). Stephen Strasburg (Overall ADP 30.25)

10). Clayton Kershaw (Overall ADP 39.92)