Making Mountains Out Of Molehills: Overreacting To The First Seven Days Of Baseball

With a rankings list, the most important thing (at least in my view) is not to overreact to small data sets. It’s hard to really move anyone up or down much unless something is really notable in the first week of the season. For most of the list, there really isn’t much that is all that notable after 7 days of baseball. But I’m still going to run through some data just to see where players stand, and maybe we can glean a bit moving forward.

I am using NFBC for position eligibility, so it’s possible that other players may be eligible at SS in other sites (Yahoo, anyone?).

My original rank (as of my 3/20/25 middle infield ranks article) is in parentheses.

 

Biggest Riser: Zach Neto

Biggest Faller: Masyn Winn

 

1. Bobby Witt Jr. (1)

No HRs?!? That’s it – I’m off Bobby Witt. What happened to this guy?

If this is your current response for Witt’s season, step back from the ledge. Call someone. Eat some chocolate.

Everything looks fine so far, and he’s even running with a 6.1% SBA. He also has a 50% HH% and has corrected his elevated K% from the first couple of games of the season. His Barrel% is only 6.3%, and that worries me 0%. All good.

2. Gunnar Henderson (2)

Gunnar Henderson hasn’t played yet, so nothing to report here. He is eligible to return from the IL the day this article drops, and according to his manager, he’s on track to join the Orioles by this weekend. If the date is pushed back, maybe I’ll start to worry, but we’re good for now.

3. Elly De La Cruz (3)

Man, the torpedo bat has arrived. Elly De La Cruz used one in BP for the first time on Monday, and then used it to hit 2 HRs that night. Not too shabby.

This just in… Elly was already good before he changed his bat! My one real pre-season concern was his K%, which currently sits at a lovely 19% – and means absolutely nothing to this point. I’ll check back to see how the K-rate looks in late April. Until then, just enjoy Elly being Elly.

4. Francisco Lindor (4)

Franciso Lindor is currently rocking a .067 AVG and zero HRs. Oh yeah, he’s a slow starter. Every. Single. Year. Wake me up in May.

5. Mookie Betts (5)

Well, Mookie Betts has assuaged all concerns folks had about his weight loss (and by folks, I mean me…). 

Honestly, I’m very surprised how he’s looked so far considering how much his virus took out of him (literally?), but good for him. His 3 HRs in 18 PAs is nice, indeed, but his matching 5.6% K% & BB% tell us that this is probably just a nice hot streak to start the year. Both his Barrel% and HH% are within 1% of last year’s, and his EV (86.1) and maxEV (100.8) suggest he’s really not hitting the ball hard yet. 

Mookie also started fast last year, so I’m going to wait for a month before I start really considering his underlying stats. So far, so good though, but I’m still kind of waiting for the other shoe to drop.

6. Oneil Cruz (6)

Oneil Cruz has two standout stats so far: 5 SB on 12.1% SBA%. Wow. Maybe that’s a sign of something to come? The Pirates do lead all teams in both SBAs (21) and SBs (19). The willingness to run says something (I hope), and if Cruz is able to maintain even a 5-6% SBA%, my dreams of his 30/30 potential might end up looking more like 30/50. This is certainly something I’ll be paying attention to.

7. Trea Turner (7)

The most notable issue for Trea Turner is his back spasms over the first weekend, costing him games 2 and 3 of the young season and limiting him to 1 PA in game 4. Tonight (4/2), he led off and tallied 3 Hs and 1 RBI, so it looks like everything is ok. But since I was already concerned about Turner’s body starting to break down with soft tissue injuries, I’m a little nervous about him already having to miss some time. I hope I’m overreacting.

8. CJ Abrams (8)

CJ Abrams is getting close to moving up to the elite range. After 6 games, he already has 2 HRs and 2 SBs, and his HH% (40+%) and Barrel% (10+%) both are looking strong. I think we’re about to see a monster season.

9. Matt McLain (9)

Ditto everything I said for CJ Abrams. Matt McLain is off to a fast start with 3 HRs in 6 games. His K% is around 30% and his BB% is well below 5%, so he will need to get those numbers in order. But his power metrics are through the roof. Now, if he can re-focus on plate discipline, the ceiling is nosebleed high.

10. Corey Seager (10)

Corey Seager is off to a slow start and is already nursing a calf injury. As long as he’s on the field, he’s on my rankings list, but the eternal state of nagging injury is worrisome. If he can hold up physically, I love what he can provide. I didn’t draft him because I don’t really believe his body will hold up that well.

11. Bo Bichette (14)

He may be missing the Bo flo’, but Bo Bichette has looked fabulous (at least with the bat) so far. He is hitting the ball with the authority we had come to expect from him (571% HH%, EV of 93.5). The ball sounds great coming off the bat.

He also has only 3 Ks in 27 PAs and a .429 BABIP, so I’m not going to get too excited yet. He has 1 CS, which means he attempted to run in week 1. So can we take that as a good sign? 

I would love for my preseason rank to be way off – baseball is better when Bo is good, but I’m still waiting to see if he runs.

12. Willy Adames (11)

Willy Adames is unsurprisingly off to a putrid start, but his elevated K% and HH% suggest he’s pressing. With a big new contract in a new city, we had to expect as much. I am confident that Oracle Park will suppress his numbers (especially coming off last year’s career year), but I’m not concerned he will suddenly be a bad player. Let’s allow him to settle in and check back later.

13. Zach Neto (20)

Zach Neto has begun his rehab assignment at AAA Salt Lake as of Tuesday night. That’s pretty much all I needed to move him back up my list. 

14. Xander Bogaerts (12)

Xander Bogaerts’s surface numbers so far look a lot like what Xander usually does. His underlying metrics suggest he’s pressing a bit and trying to murder every pitch. He’s a vet who has been getting off to yearly slow starts, so I’m willing to be patient and see how the next month develops.

15. Jeremy Pena (13)

Jeremy Pena is off to a slow start, but he isn’t striking out at a concerning rate, and his xBA is over .150 higher than his BABIP. Looks like an unlucky start and not one I’m concerned about in the least.

16. Dansby Swanson (16)

Dansby Swanson, so far, looks like a healthy Dansby Swanson. That player isn’t a great player, but he’s a good one that will quietly provide stats that will help your team.

17. Anthony Volpe (17)

How likely is it for a player to have 40 HRs in just 40 Hs for a season? We may find out. Anthony Volpe has 4 hits this season, all HRs. He’s also added 2 BBs. He is on pace for 194 Ks.

I don’t think he’s going to end up with just 40 Hs, but he is a legit 40 HR threat. But the Ks are part of who he is as well. Enjoy the ride, I guess?

18. Ezequiel Tovar (18)

The bad news: Ezequiel Tovar has 3 hits in his first 20 PAs. The good news: his xBA says he’s a .276 hitter, and his K% is markedly down from last year. So far, his slow start seems to be a mix of bad luck and a 0.0% Barrel%. Ouch. He can only go up from here? Since his career Barrel% is closer to 10%, his start tells us nothing. Tovar, like Volpe, is going to be a streaky player due to his less than ideal plate discipline. This is part of the Tovar experience, so my expectations of him are the same as a week ago.

19. Trevor Story (N/R)

Trevor Story is healthy and has played 5 of Boston’s 6 games. That’s it – that’s my reasoning. His K% is too high, and his HH% isn’t where it needs to be yet. But he’s playing, hitting 5th, and still has a ton of speed. I put him here based on what he’s done in his career – and what I hope he still has left in the tank after all of his injuries. With 1 HR and 2 SBs in his first 5 games, he’s providing stats. Maybe he can pull a healthy season and give us a glimpse of what he was in Colorado?

20. Masyn Winn (15)

Um, we have a problem. Masyn Winn has been the #9 hitter every Cardinals game so far. Ollie Marmol is known for making inexplicable decisions, but I can actually see his reasoning of Winn’s speed being useful as the “2nd leadoff hitter” from the 9-hole. And you have to give Marmol credit for putting Nootbaar at leadoff – Noot has been studly so far.

But if Winn is going to stick at 9 in the batting order all year, all of the preseason hype he received is going to fall flat. Very flat. He also hasn’t attempted to run yet, but then, he hasn’t exactly been on base (2 Hs, 3 BBs in 25 PAs as of 4/2 – and, oof, 12 Ks). I’m not too worried about the slow start, but the batting order drop means roughly 100+ fewer PAs than if he spends the season in the 1-hole. I’m going to hope that once Winn locks in a bit more, Marmol will at least put him in the top half of the lineup. But things don’t look great at this point.

 

That’s the list for now. I’ll be back for another rankings extravaganza, this time with the top 20 at 2B, in two weeks. By then, there will be some trends that we can get our arms around a bit more and draw clearer conclusions. But, to me, this is the fun of the grind – trying to make sense of the blob of numbers in front of us. I hope you enjoy it as much as I do.

Until next week. – ADHamley