Tilting At The ADP Windmills OR Maybe I Just Don’t Understand How ADP Works?

For those of you who aren’t fantasy baseball degenerates like I am, you’re probably right in the middle of your main drafting season. I, on the other hand, am finishing up 6 months of drafting… The first step is acknowledging I have a problem.

I’m hopeful my obsession at least can benefit Razzball readers. All baseball season long, I’ll be offering up middle infield rankings and deep dives on players to give you any advantage we can find for you. Let’s get started. 

A couple of notes worth considering before I begin:

The ADP I reference in my player blurbs is based on NFBC Online Championships for the first half of March. I have also included Yahoo, CBS, and Fantrax ADPs in parentheses, but I’m not referring to them in the article itself. All references to draft rounds are based on a 15-team league.

This rankings list started as a top 20 list. But as I worked on the list, I realized my favorite drafting pocket ran into the mid-20s. I couldn’t resist – I had to add a few more names to my list. Should I apologize to my editors for giving them MORE than they asked for?

If any abbreviations in this article are confusing, scroll to the end of the article where most will be defined in case needed.

TIER 1 – The Monsters:

1.  Bobby Witt Jr. (ADP: NFBC 1.67, Yahoo 3, Fantrax 2.34, CBS [roto] 1.86)

Witt is far and away the easiest person on this list to rank – he’s #1 with a bullet. Besides his obvious stud-level performance, his underlying stats say this is going to be a long, fun ride for many years to come. He gives the most well-rounded stability and some of the best upside still to be tapped. 

The good, maybe great: His HH% isn’t massive, but it’s progressing. As a rookie, he had a 30% HH%. In years 2 and 3, he jumped up to 37.6% and 35.3%. I expect that number to keep going up. His .SLG progression over 3 seasons (.428, .495, .588) makes his growth look consistent. I don’t expect .588 SLG this year, but I would expect mid-.500s. He also has a high enough FB% (43.5-46.4) to hit HRs but has a high enough GB% (36-38) to help maintain his average. To add to his steady improvement, his BB% has gone up each year (4.7%, 5.8%, 8%) while his K% has gone down each year (21.4%, 17.4%, 15%). His plate discipline looks real.

The potential warts: His SBA% dropped significantly from 2023 to 2024: 5.5% to 2.7%, so that bears watching. Also, expect his AVG to regress this year. Last year’s BABIP (.354) was well above the .295 of his first 2 seasons and will probably come back to earth a bit. All projection systems bake that in anyway. Razzball’s hitter projections put Witt at a .293 AVG, 28 HR, 96 R, 88 RBI, and 32 SB. It’s hard to go wrong there.

The only real question is should you pick him ahead of Shohei and his dog.

2.  Gunnar Henderson (ADP: NFBC 9.69, Yahoo 9.3, Fantrax 7.14, CBS [roto] 10.13)

I have Gunnar above his ADP, even after sustaining the side injury in Spring Training. True to form with ball clubs, Baltimore claims Gunnar’s injury is no big deal though their word admittedly means absolutely nothing. It is promising that as of March 12th, Gunnar resumed baseball activities. So he should be ok for the beginning of the season? If not opening day, then soon thereafter? Please?

Assuming he’s ok, he looks like a budding monster to me. To be fair, Elly also looks like a budding monster, so why do I rank Gunnar ahead? Elly’s upside, after all, is probably higher. The difference is Gunnar’s upside seems more projectable, and I prefer the safety and AVG he can offer.

Gunnar controls the plate well. His BB% each of his first 3 seasons has hovered around 10% (10.8 in 2024), while his K% dipped from an already manageable 25.6% to 22.1%. For a hitter who can mash 30 HR, I’ll take those numbers. Based on his plate discipline, I buy last year’s AVG of .281 as closer to his true talent level as opposed to the .250s of his first 2 seasons.

His HH% has been in the low 50s all 3 seasons. This kid smashes the ball (Avg. EV of 92.8 mph). His LA hanging out around 10 degrees maybe could be higher, and his GB% is too high (45-46%). Will that hold him back, or are those areas where he can continue to improve? My money is on the improvement. I’m in.

3.  Elly De La Cruz (ADP: NFBC 3.81, Yahoo 5.5, Fantrax 5.52, CBS [roto] 4.87)

It’s not like I don’t LIKE Elly. In fact, I love watching him play. I think he’s the most exciting player in the game. I won’t be surprised by any season he is the #1 overall player at the end of the year, but I also won’t be surprised by a season where his plate discipline wrecks his AVG and his aggression wrecks his body.

The good: This guy is a joy to watch. 60 SBs aren’t a big deal to him. And his HH% of around 46% is impressive to say the least. He’s a potential firework going off every time he is up to bat or on the bases. The BB% at 9+% doesn’t hurt my feelings either.

Some reasons for concern: His GB% was at 46% last year. As with Gunnar, that high rate dampens his HR potential. But the GB% added to his speed does make it seem like last year’s .359 BABIP is somewhat repeatable, so maybe it’ll turn out I was too concerned about his potential AVG floor. But the 30%+ K% doesn’t give me much confidence there (neither does the 32.4% CSW%). And the potential HR cap is concerning if I’m going to pay a top 5 pick for him. If he’s able to bring his GB% and FB% closer together this year, then I will likely change my tune.

According to the “Best Shape of My Life” chatter coming out of camp, Elly is working on a new batting stance to cut down on K%. His spring stats look promising for sure (especially his 21.9% K% along with his 15.6% BB%), but spring stats don’t exactly mean much. If his new batting stance helps him keep those changes in season, he’s likely to be next year’s #1 with a bullet. I’m all for that happening, but at his current cost, I’m probably waiting one more year to find out.

4.  Francisco Lindor (ADP: NFBC 15.31, Yahoo 13, Fantrax 13.01, CBS [roto] 10.19)

It took me too long to be convinced by Lindor’s Mets renaissance, but I’m in – finally. The thing that stands out to me is his K% increase immediately upon going to NY. 15% to 18% isn’t extraordinary by any means. But the fact he was consistently around 15 in his last 3 years in Cleveland but has been 18+ all 4 years with Mets suggests an intentional change. I think the change was to be more aggressive in a simple way: swinging harder. 

His Swing%, Z-Swing%, and O-Swing% haven’t really changed, so it seems like he’s mostly swinging at the same types of pitches. His SwSt% has increased by 1% or so, and his CStr% has increased by around 1.5%. Is he just being slightly more patient and looking more often for a pitch to drive? His lowest HH% as a Met is equal to his highest percentage with Cleveland, and he’s now about 5+% above his HH% in his Cleveland days. His LA has even tracked up with the Mets (17° last year compared to 13.5-14.5 in his Cleveland days). 

Give me more of this Lindor! I see no reason to think his HRs will dip anytime soon. Add that to his SBA% the last 2 years being equivalent to his younger Cleveland days, and this new version of Lindor looks completely intentional. I think he’s undervalued and have no problem drafting him in RD 1.

TIER 2 – Very Good, Maybe Great, But…:

5.  Mookie Betts (ADP: NFBC 12.81, Yahoo 8.2, Fantrax 10.65, CBS [roto] 9.47)

I’m not much for who is Hall of Fame caliber and who isn’t, but it makes sense to admit that Mookie has been a really good, maybe great, player for years. In our fantasy game, he’s certainly a help with AVG and Rs, both extremely important categories. They are the two categories that I am usually most concerned about, even before HRs and SBs. At his cost, I agree he makes sense.

But I just can’t seem to click on his name because of some concerning markers from last season. I realize that he was injured with the June broken hand. But what explains his decline in May? His HH% dipped by nearly 9% last year, and the dip began before the hand injury. Add that to his Barrel% being cut in half (12.4 to 6). It also seems notable that his K% dropped from a plenty respectable 15.4% (in line with his previous seasons) to 11% (a low # he hasn’t had since 2017). He looks less aggressive with his swing, which I’m not a fan of. Is that all from last year’s injury? More concerning, is it age-related decline? Also, news of his Spring Training illness and weight loss gives me bad memories of the Keibert Ruiz illness last year which seemed to affect his physical ability the rest of the season.

Despite my concerns, I would absolutely be willing to bet on Mookie in the mid-to late-2nd round. But others are much more convinced that Betts will bounce back, so he’s always gone before I would pick him.

6.  Ketel Marte (ADP: NFBC 29.81, Yahoo 30.2, Fantrax 25.51, CBS [roto] 23.66)

I think the projection systems are right on the mark for Marte: mid-20s HRs, 7ish SBs, 80s for Rs & RBIs, .270s for AVG. Marte’s health has largely held up for 3 seasons in a row, as he has tallied 550+ PAs each of those years. I’ll take that. Considering the drop in projected value between him and the next 2B in ADP, his ADP seems completely reasonable.

That said, banking on 550+ PAs for a 4th straight year feels risky. Maybe I’m imagining this, but Marte always seems to be nursing one injury or another. Most importantly as far as draft value goes, even if he hits his projections, I’m not sure that’s a 2-3 turn pick. IF Marte is what he was last year completely AND can repeat his massive HH% and HR production, sign me up. But I’m not sure I believe that’s repeatable. Drop the cost, and I’m in.

Still, if I’m looking for a MI that offers HRs + AVG, and he is somehow still there at the end of the 3rd, easy pick.

7.  Oneil Cruz (ADP: NFBC 34.14, Yahoo 49.2, Fantrax 55.27, CBS [roto] 42.44)

Cruz is the riskiest of this tier by far, but he’s also the one who makes me dream the biggest. I find myself falling into the IF game with him: IF he cuts his K%… IF he stays healthy… IF he can raise his LA by just a couple of degrees… IF he can hit lefties.

A couple of numbers that will lead to a double take: 54.9% HH%, 95.5 mph EV, 121.5 mph maxEV. Whoa. This guy murders the baseball. But he can also murder his own AB: 30.2% K%, 47.8% GB%, 33.8% FB%, 67.3% contact%, 32.9% CSW%. Oof. 

I don’t usually take the riskiest option, and Cruz carries risk. But if we’re going to compare Cruz to Elly De La Cruz (which I certainly do – similar build, HH%, maxEV, excitement factor), then I think we need to recognize that mixed with Cruz’s risk is a massive ceiling. And, honestly, I feel like a .255 AVG, 30 HR, 30 SB, 80 R, 85 RBI season is a legit possibility even with plate discipline metrics that don’t leave me all warm and fuzzy. At his price, I find myself going for it. He’s my pick if I’m not in huge need for AVG and want to look for upside impact from MI (or OF!).

8.  Trea Turner (ADP: NFBC 24.86, Yahoo 22.4, Fantrax 27.67, CBS [roto] 20.03)

Trea Turner has been a perennial 1st or 2nd round pick for over 5 years now. There is no doubt he’s still a high-end player who can provide a reasonable number of HRs, and he has been a virtual lock to provide 30+ SBs. His plate metrics indicate no real decline in skills, so it feels safe to say we know who Turner is.

But here’s the thing: Do I believe Trea Turner is still a 25 HR / 30 SB guy like he was in 2023? No, I actually don’t. Do I believe he’s still a consistent 20 / 20 guy? Yes. But something has me spooked about his leg health. Soft tissue injuries seem to have become part of his reality, and I foresee these soft tissue problems becoming more frequent as he ages. As he enters his age 32 season, Turner isn’t old by any means, but he isn’t young in baseball years either. If he can stay completely healthy, maybe he’s worth his cost at the 2-3 turn. But I worry that he won’t stay healthy and that his SBs will suffer. 

Even if Turner’s SBs decline, he’ll still provide AVG, Rs, and enough HRs to be interesting. So I’d definitely be willing to take the bet in the middle of the 3rd (if he ever falls to that point), especially if I’m in need of a MI with AVG.

9.  CJ Abrams (ADP: NFBC 44.97, Yahoo 56.4, Fantrax 70.92, CBS [roto] 49.85)

Immaturity aside, this kid has some serious tools. His HH% jumped from 35.7% in his breakout 2023 to 40.4% in 2024. His steals were “down” to 31 from his 47 in 2023, but his SBA% was still a reasonable 4%. We can’t expect much in the AVG category, especially if he has bad BABIP luck. Fortunately, his speed and HH% might protect his BABIP. His contact% isn’t terrible at just under 80%, and his Z-contact% is fairly decent, consistently in the mid-80s. If he can add just a little plate discipline and stop swinging so often on pitches outside the zone (his O-swing% is around 34-35%, and his BB% is anemic at around 6%), that would be a mark of significant growth. He is certainly at an age where growth seems likely.

Despite some of the warts, he seems like a gamble worth taking. Place your wagers now while he’s priced at a discount relative to his skills.

10.  Matt McLain (ADP: NFBC 80.33, Yahoo 77.9, Fantrax 120.91, CBS [roto] 100.32)

I know, I know… This ranking is HIGH. Way high. But you know you remember his tasty run in 2023. Call me naive, but I am fully on board with thinking Matt McLain is largely who he looked like during that massive half season. 

Do I think he’ll stay on pace to go 30 HR / 25 SB? No, not really. Do I think he’ll repeat his .290 .AVG? Again, not so much – that .385 BABIP is going to be tough to get to again, and his 28.5% K% with a 7.7% BB% doesn’t scream “plate discipline.”

But his HH% looks legit: in the low- to mid-40s, and his LA is conducive to getting the ball over the fence. His sprint speed (29 ft/s – that is Elly De La Cruz range) makes it look like he could steal bases at a better rate than 2023 when his SBA% was a whopping 2%. Could he put together a 20 HR / 40 SB season? I think so. 

I drafted him confidently at his fairly expensive price in early draft season last year – and then disaster struck with the shoulder injury. And shoulder injuries scare me like no other, so before Spring Training, I was pretty much out on him. Spring Training doesn’t really offer us much when it comes to player analysis, but it’s at least made him look healthy. I don’t even care that his results have been reasonably decent. Right now, he looks healthy, so I’m all in.

TIER 3 – Proven Stars With Questions:

11.  Corey Seager (ADP: NFBC 43.53, Yahoo 39.9, Fantrax 42.97, CBS [roto] 29.73)

The good: This guy can flat-out hit. And he has strong plate discipline, so we can be sure he’s not going to give away too many ABs. The problem is… we never know if he’ll get enough ABs to matter. Seager has reached 600 PAs one time since the 2018 season. In that period of 7 years, he’s hit 500 PAs a total of three times (notice that number refers to total plate appearances, not at bats). And with his BB% consistently around 10%, his AB total during those 7 years drops to roughly half of Marcus Semien’s ABs during the same years. Iron Man, meet Tin Man. 

If Seager’s healthy, think .280 AVG, 30 HR, 90 R, 100 RBI. But when has health been a thing for Seager? If you want to take the risk, his numbers justify the spot, but also understand that he isn’t getting any younger. Our durability doesn’t tend to improve as we age. I’m out unless the price dips significantly.

12.  Ozzie Albies (ADP: NFBC 64.19, Yahoo 46.7, Fantrax 51.32, CBS [roto] 46.83)

I’m buying the dip on Albies’s price. I realize that the odd year = good Ozzie / bad year = bad Ozzie is just coincidence. But the odd-even thing comes out also in his HH% (mid- to upper-30s in odd years, closer to upper-20s to low-30s in even years). The odd-even pattern continues with higher PAs (odd years) to lower PAs (even years). SBs drop dramatically in even years. Despite those Good Ozzie vs. Bad Ozzie numbers, his BB% and K% are essentially the same each year, as is his LA. 

This seems pretty simple: Albies is consistent in his plate-discipline metrics, but his numbers that would be affected by injury clearly drop. Sounds like injuries to me, and some of them are flukey. In fact, pretty much all of his even-year injuries involve broken bones or bone bruises. It’s not like the guy’s hamstrings are going bad every year. Buy. The. Dip.

13.  Jose Altuve (ADP: NFBC 59.19, Yahoo 45.3, Fantrax 42.13, CBS [roto] 43.53)

Full Disclosure: I will never forgive certain players for “Signgate,” and Jose Altuve is at the top of that list of players. But I am a mature fantasy baseball player (Can I say those two things, at the same time, with a straight face?). So I try not to let my personal feelings about a player affect my analysis. I will admit that I plan to enjoy watching Altuve enter the decline phase of his career. And his OF experiment is fun too. On that note: Here is my favorite Spring Training video. Here also is my favorite Spring Training social media post. (Do I have to say “Skeet”? That word sounds like what someone might find in his boxers after eating too much chili…) 

My personal feelings aside, Altuve is still a valuable asset on a fantasy team even if I wonder when the bottom is going to fall out (he will turn 35 this season). He is a perennial 20 HR / 20 SB contributor when he is able to play a full, healthy season. His metrics that I care most about (HH%, K%, BB%, Barrel%, maxEV) have all remained fairly consistent. Last year, he dipped to a 6.5% Barrel% (down from 8.3 and 7.7 the seasons before), so maybe there’s a slight beginning of a problem there. But he had a similar Barrel% in 2021 when he delivered 31 HR and 5 SB. His HRs have tracked down since then, but his SBs have gone up significantly. As much as it pains me to say it, he’s smart and good.

But for how much longer? Father Time wins. We lose. Every. Single. Time. The decline has to be coming soon, and I’m not really willing to invest a 4th or 5th round pick on someone that I feel this unsure about. If I see him in the 8th round, I will get over my aversion to him as a player and jump right in. But the folks I draft with aren’t letting him drop that far.

14.  Willy Adames (ADP: NFBC 94.89, Yahoo 80.1, Fantrax 57.2, CBS [roto] 82.46)

This drafting season has been really frustrating for me with Willy Adames because people? him this year. In previous seasons, it seems like he has been perennially underrated, allowing me to swoop in and draft him at surplus. But, no, this year we are overdrafting him? 

I love the player. He consistently has a HH% around 40%, an 11%+ Barrel%, a maxEV of 110+, and his BB% is usually around 10%. That’s the kind of guy I usually want to draft.

But here’s the cold water blast – simple surface numbers. Here are three representative years: .262 / 25 / 77 / 73 / 5, .238 / 31 / 83 / 98 / 8, .217 / 24 / 73 / 80 / 5. Those are his AVG, HR, R, RBI, and SB numbers for 2021-2023. He certainly has 30 HR potential in his bat as 2022 showed us, but he’s mostly a 25 / 6 kind of guy. He’s also probably going to be a slight AVG drain even if he makes up for it with his R and RBI totals. When he’s being drafted around ADP 150, that’s a steal. When he’s being drafted in the 7th round or 8th round, not so much. 

Drafters are dreaming based on last season’s contract year numbers (.251 / 32 / 93 / 112 / 21), but c’mon, guys, his counting stats were all career bests. Doesn’t regression seem like an obvious outcome for this year? Virtually every projection system bakes in that expected regression. Our Razzball hitter projections are probably the most conservative – .237 AVG, 21 HR, 72 R, 71 RBI, 13 SB – but the other systems are basically the same with just a few more HRs tacked on. Adames comes in at #135 on the Razzball Player Rater. In other auction calculators: the #84 overall player for BatX, the #99 overall player for OOPSY, and the #125 overall player for Steamer. Long story short, we’re currently drafting him around his max projected value from the two most bullish of the projection systems. And I really don’t think the projections of mid-teens steals are necessarily all that probable when he’s consistently been around 6 or 7 per year until last year’s outlier.

I’ll pass on his current price. If he falls into the 10th round though, I’ll be there to scoop him up.

15.  Marcus Semien (ADP: NFBC 102.47, Yahoo 72.3, Fantrax 55.83, CBS [roto] 59.74)

Marcus Semien is in a similar position to Altuve in terms of age and possible decline. It may have even started last season – .237 with 23 HR and 8 SB wasn’t really what I was hoping for. But his HH% stayed relatively the same, and his maxEV actually went up. His BB% and K% were virtually identical to the previous year. And he still provided 101 R, a hugely important and underrated fantasy stat. These numbers plus last year’s paltry .237 BABIP (when he’s usually at around .250+) make me think part of his problem was just bad luck. A bounceback seems like a pretty reasonable bet.

But he admittedly is just a few months younger than Altuve, so the same age-related concerns apply. And his Iron Man status (700+ PAs since 2018, not counting 2020’s shortened season) has to catch up to his body eventually, right? Maybe. But as long as he’s going in the 8th or 9th round as he has this draft season, I’m often happy to take the chance.

TIER 4 – Do We Know Who These Guys Are?:

16.  Jordan Westburg (ADP: NFBC 80.31, Yahoo 82.8, Fantrax 110.41, CBS [roto] 74.59)

The more I dig into Westburg’s stats, the more I like him. He looks like he might be something special, but I find myself hesitating to click on his name at his ADP. At that point, I can usually wait a couple more rounds to find Semien and Adames still there. While I’m not sure about the price on Adames, I feel like I know who those guys are and mostly what to expect from their season. I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if Westburg outperforms everyone I have in tier 3, but I would be equally unsurprised if he regressed significantly from last year’s second half hot streak. I’d still like to wait one more year before I commit to him this early in the draft.

But his HH% (nearly 45%) and reasonable K% (21.7% last year, which is right in line with his numbers the last few years in the minors) might make me change my mind. Like McLain, Westburg’s speed is real (29 ft/s), so I have to think that his anemic SBA% (1.1%) will go up. He has tools that make me think he’s real, but I think I’ll wait one more year to see.

17.  Luis Garcia Jr. (ADP: NFBC 124.06, Yahoo 146.6, Fantrax 133.01, CBS [roto] 122.02)

Here are a few numbers: 1, 0, 3, 9, 22. Those are Garcia’s stolen base numbers the last 5 seasons. Does anyone notice the outlier?

Here are a few more numbers: 11, 12, 11. Those are his minors stolen bases in 2017-2019. The 2024 total of 22 SBs still looks like an outlier. Can he steal? Sure. His in-game sprint speed clocks in at around 27 ft/s, which is ok, certainly fast enough to steal. But let’s consider one more set of numbers: 5 of 27 (18.5%), 4 of 13 (30.8%), 4 of 7 (57.1%), 2 of 2 (100%), 1 of 2 (50%). Those are his caught stealing numbers in the majors: 51 SBA, 16 CS. He has been caught on 31.4% of his attempts since getting to the Show. Those aren’t numbers that have managers excited to give the green light.

The good news is he’s getting better – 2024’s 81.5% success rate plays at the MLB level. And Washington certainly gave him the freedom to run last year. But I wonder if he had the green light because the team was growing but not yet competitive. This year, I think there is a reasonable shot the Nats compete for a Wild Card spot, so I wonder if Dave Martinez is going to keep the green light going for him. According to Spring Training, SBA% isn’t looking all that promising: he has currently attempted 2 SB in Spring Training with a success rate of 50%. You might say, well, it’s Spring Training, so the stats don’t really matter! True, but SBA% does tend to be somewhat sticky in Spring Training.

I agree Garcia looks like a promising player, but he looks like a promising player that would make more sense being drafted closer to 200 than 100. How different is Gleyber Torres than Garcia while Gleyber is going roughly 100 picks later? Yes, I think Garcia has more upside and will probably outperform Torres this year. But by 100 picks? Maybe Garcia has turned a corner, and he’s now a 15 HR / 20 SB guy. If he does it again, I’m in. Until then, I’m going to sit this one out at his current price. If his price drops to more like 160-170, sign me up!

TIER 5 – The Value Pocket: Give me all of these guys at their price.

18.  Xander Bogaerts (ADP: NFBC 158.36, Yahoo 147.2, Fantrax 150.14, CBS [roto] 144.35)

You might reasonably say that Bogaerts is vanilla. You might also reasonably say he has entered his decline phase. But I’m usually happy to call him my MI.

Despite any onset of decline, his plate discipline metrics are still overall solid. His CSW% isn’t awesome, but to be fair, he’s always had a bad CSW%. Despite that, his K% is good at around 17%. I’d love for his BB% to go up, and his steady decline in that area over the years does concern me. But every year he isn’t injured, he gives 15-20 HR and a respectable number of bags. His AVG is perennially a help and still was last year even in a down season in which he clearly struggled with injury. I’ll take his pretty solid expectation of 18 HR / 12 SB with a .270 AVG and between 70-80 R & RBI. That kind of player is a benefit at a 150+ pick.

19.  Jeremy Pena (ADP: NFBC 167.22, Yahoo 200.9, Fantrax 188.56, CBS [roto] 209.32)

After Pena’s semi-breakout in 2022, drafters decided that he had an upside of more power and more speed. His HH% of 36.2% and Barrel% of 9.6% maybe suggested the power jump was possible but not necessarily a given – his LA and EV didn’t exactly scream power potential. His speed metrics, though (29.4 ft/s) made more bags look like a real possibility. 

Then Pena made the mistake of having a sophomore slump in which he became essentially the same player as the year before except the power dip happened – which, BTW, his power metrics from the year before suggested might also be a possibility. So drafters decided they were OUT. I miss those days of getting Pena cheap.

And in 2024, Pena was exactly the same player with a little more HR luck and R and RBI totals that reflected his move to the top of the Houston batting order. This time, drafters seem to have figured out what Pena offers: decent AVG in the .250-.265 range, double-double in steals and HRs (think 10-15 HR / 15-20 SB), and enough Rs and RBIs to be helpful. So Pena rightfully moved up in ADP, but not to a crazy range. 

In RD 11-12, what he offers – dependability of 5-category contributions – seems like such a solid floor that I wouldn’t mind having him every time I drafted.

20.  Bo Bichette (ADP: NFBC 120.83, Yahoo 102.7, Fantrax 148.07, CBS [roto] 93.38)

We have convinced ourselves for YEARS that this will be the year Bo is finally going to run. This year, the narrative is, “Well, it’s a walk year. He’ll run to get a bigger contract.” I actually sort of buy that reasoning, but not enough to overcome this: 

His SBs for the last 6 years: 4, 4, 25, 13, 5, 5. That 2-year run of 25 and 13 look pretty strong, but the other 4 years of averaging 4.5 SB per year don’t seem to promise that SBs are a big part of his game (to be fair, last year’s SB total was in only 336 PA, so maybe there’s more hope than I think). I’ll draft him for his solid AVG especially, and he offers plenty of other counting stat goodness. I’m happy to buy the dip if it pushes him to at least the 150s. But I think we need to come to terms with who Bichette is – and who he just might not be.

BONUS List:

21.  Luis Rengifo (ADP: NFBC 173.75, Yahoo 215.5, Fantrax 220.93, CBS [roto] 188.31)

It’s hard to say that we know exactly who Rengifo is since he’s given us such different stats the last few years. In 2022 and 2023, he was a fill-in contributor who could play multiple positions. His notable numbers were 17 HR / 6 SB and then 16 HR / 6 SB, K% well under 20%, and exactly a .264 AVG both years. Otherwise, his R and RBI total were 40s or 50s, nothing super impressive but useful.

In 2024, Ron Washington said, “Run, young man, run” or some other magic Wash-type saying, and Rengifo responded with 24 SB in only 304 PA – though he had only 6 HR, he was on pace for 50s or 60s in R and RBI if he got around 500 PA. Again, his K% was well below 20% (14.5!), and his AVG jumped up to .300. I’ll take that in 300 PA.

Projection systems all pretty much agree that this year he’ll go somewhere in the range of 10-15 HR / 10-20 SB. I buy the HR projection (I bet closer to 10-11 with his underlying power metrics). But I don’t see why Wash won’t have Rengifo running again. In 9 PA in Spring Training, Rengifo already has a SB, coming on March 16th in only his second game back from a leg injury. Good grief, that’s commitment to the run. I would imagine Rengifo’s 3.8% SBA% from last season is probably going to be close to this season’s rate. 

While his projections don’t blow me away, getting .265 / 11 / 65 / 60 / 30 in RD 12 seems like value. I’ll take it.

22.  Masyn Winn (ADP: NFBC 146.61, Yahoo 188.4, Fantrax 195.92, CBS [roto] 176.75)

One of the darlings of draft season, early on, Winn was being picked in the 160-170 range but is now under 150. I’m a little less enthused at a RD 10 price as opposed to the early RD 12 price. But I do see the appeal.

In Winn’s full rookie season, he supplied a double-double while hitting a respectable .267. The 85 R were a real help at the point of the draft when he was going last year. Those numbers still have value at Winn’s early-season draft position, but to justify his new, more expensive cost, he’s going to need to progress this year. I think he can. 

His plate discipline metrics suggest his AVG is repeatable and maybe gives him room for growth in that area. His CStr% of 18.9% is higher than I’d like to see. Maybe someone in St. Louis will tell him to take the bat off his shoulder more often. If so, more balls in play with his speed (28.8 ft/s in 2024, 29.2 in 2023) give him the chance to bring that AVG up. There’s definitely room for more speed in his game. His 1.4% SBA% has lots of room to grow, and in the spirit of “best shape of my life” season, he says he wants to steal 30-40 this year. YES! Be more aggressive, man! His HH% and Barrel% certainly won’t turn any heads, so 15-16 HR might be as much as we can really hope for. At the top of a not-terrible St. Louis lineup, though, another 600 PAs will give Winn plenty of opportunity to reach 80-90+ R. As long as you can absorb the lack of RBI and low ceiling on HR, Winn seems like a pick with solid floor and some ceiling in AVG, SB, and R. I’ve mostly been willing to click on his name so far.

23.  Dansby Swanson (ADP: NFBC 182.33, Yahoo 186, Fantrax 167.46, CBS [roto] 178.46)

As a man nearing age 50, I appreciate a good bowl of oatmeal. Dansby is oatmeal, but every once in a while, his oatmeal comes with sprinkles of cinnamon on top. 

We know who this guy is: a .240-.250 hitter (who tosses in a .270 season from time to time – you know, cinnamon…) and someone who will bring in 20ish HR, 80s for both R & RBI, and somewhere between 10-20 SB. He came awfully close to that last year despite being injured and having core surgery immediately after the season ended. If folks want to give me Dansby in RD 12 or 13, I’m happy to accept that gift.

24.  Nico Hoerner (ADP: NFBC 218.78, Yahoo 162, Fantrax 190.07, CBS [roto] 169.79)

Nico Hoerner was overdrafted last year, and he’s being underdrafted this year. I’ll take the discount, one that has been made bigger by his off-season injury news. His combination of AVG, SB, and R upside makes his current price a steal, and I find myself clicking on his name more and more often. I keep hearing the Cubs lineup is going to be good this year – as a longtime Cubs fan, I have my doubts… Doubts about the lineup aside, I am confident in what Hoerner provides. And what he doesn’t provide is more than baked into his price. Though his price is moving up in the last week or so, so you may want to click on his name right around 195-200 to be sure you get him.

TIER 6 – Market-Perceived Values, But with Downsides:

25.  Anthony Volpe (ADP: NFBC 147.97, Yahoo 159.3, Fantrax 118.34, CBS [roto] 171.74)

26.  Ezequiel Tovar (ADP: NFBC 134.78, Yahoo 132.6, Fantrax 139.42, CBS [roto] 161.64)

Anthony Volpe and Ezequiel Tovar offer power with speed, but seem like potential AVG liabilities. It looks like I won’t be ending up with any shares of either player.

Can someone explain to me what I’m not seeing with Volpe? His ADP has finally dropped closer to 150 after coming in for much of draft season closer to 125, but I can’t pay the 150 either. He’s not someone I would expect to give an AVG help as it looks like last year’s .243 might be right around what we might continue to expect. While there was some growth from 2023 to 2024,  his plate discipline metrics aren’t super impressive. His Contact% has climbed up to just under 80%, and his K% dropped 5% to 22.6%. Neither of those is a deal breaker, but his near-30% CSW% doesn’t make me think the growth he’s made is necessarily here to stay. His BB% isn’t great, so his K-BB% was 16.5% last year (hey, better than the 20.1% the season before!). He has some power potential, but his HH% doesn’t blow me away. 2023’s rate of 42.7% is more promising than last year’s and is certainly enough to hit with power if he’s making good contact. I do like that he’s more committed than Tovar to stealing: SBA% of 3.2% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024. Overall, I do like his tools and am willing to bet on him around 175, but he never gets even close to that in my drafts.

Ezequiel Tovar had a nice season last year, but the underlying numbers won’t let me get too excited. His HH% is fine, in a similar range to Volpe’s. His Barrel% is under 10%, so not extraordinary but ok. But his K% at 28.8% last year while his BB% was at 3.3%? Oof. His BABIP of .344 doesn’t seem sustainable to me based on his HH% and speed (28.1 ft/s in both 2023 and 2024 – good but not amazing). He also doesn’t use his speed to his advantage: his SBA% was a massive 1% last year. His Contact% of 69% isn’t anything even close to nice. Tovar has tools, but I’m not interested anywhere near his price until he shows some plate discipline.

27.  Brice Turang (ADP: NFBC 136.33, Yahoo 130.7, Fantrax 96.11, CBS [roto] 113.74)

Turang offers the highest upside in SBs, but he doesn’t have the AVG help to fall back on. Also, he can be reasonably expected to provide only 6-8 HR. I don’t understand why SBs and maybe Rs have him going in RD 9 or 10 when players like Stott and Gimenez are going in RD 11 or 12. I haven’t picked him yet and probably won’t unless he drops closer to pick 175. If you’re desperate for steals, though, I can see a reason to jump early… sort of.

28.  Andres Gimenez (ADP: NFBC 163.28, Yahoo 193.4, Fantrax 166.34, CBS [roto] 193.53)

29.  Bryson Stott (ADP: NFBC 164.64, Yahoo 177.8, Fantrax 222.04, CBS [roto] 188.12)

Bryson Stott and Andres Gimenez seem like essentially the same player, and their matching ADPs suggest the market agrees. I prefer Gimenez at his cost because I feel like his PAs are more secure.

Last year, Stott struggled so much against lefties that Philly often sat him when a lefty was pitching. But when Stott is in the game, his speed impacts the game. He also can be expected to add around 8-10 HR, and he has the potential to score runs in a powerful lineup. Theoretically, his PAs could become more consistent at any time since his glove is so good, but Philly is deep and can find other good players in that lineup (and have so far). 

Gimenez isn’t the greatest hitter ever, but I don’t expect Toronto to take his glove out of the lineup. The question is: will Toronto let him run? If the answer is yes, Gimenez likely returns top 150 value at the very least. If not, Gimenez may not return top 250 value.

30.  Xavier Edwards (ADP: NFBC 139.08, Yahoo 115.3, Fantrax 176.07, CBS [roto] 130.94)

There is certainly value to be had with Edwards’s profile. His SB upside is a virtual lock, and there’s at least a reasonable shot at a good AVG. That’s about it. Zero power does not begin to explain his profile. And a bad Marlins lineup doesn’t scream R upside. If he were going around pick 200, I’d be interested. Pre-150, not so much.

HONORABLE MENTION. Zach Neto (ADP: NFBC 198.17, Yahoo 208.4, Fantrax 233.82, CBS [roto] 199.65)

How injured is Neto? Shoulder injuries worry me. The Angels aren’t a good organization, and they do weird things with players. That worries me more. They’ve been cagey about Neto’s injury. That really worries me. Now, Ron Washington says Neto won’t be ready for opening day, but that he “may be ready soon after.” Yeah, whatever there, Wash.

If I get ANY inkling Neto is ready to go, he will move WAY UP my list. I was on him last year (my one stroke of semi-genius) and think he’s the real deal. To this point in drafting season, though, I just haven’t been able to click on his name when I’m up to draft. If he’s healthy, though, move him up to the end of Tier 2.

 

Terms used:

HH%: Hard Hit %

Barrel%: % of batted balls where the ball is hit with the barrel of the bat (sweet spot of the bat)

EV and maxEV: average exit velocity or season high exit velocity after the ball makes contact with the bat

BB%: % of plate appearance that end in a walk

K%: % of PAs that end in a strikeout

CStr%: % of pitches faced that were called strikes (batter didn’t swing)

CSW%: % of pitches faced that were either called strikes or ended as swinging strikes

SwSt%: % of strikes when swinging

Swing%: % of pitches the batter swings at

Z-Swing%: % of pitches in the strike zone the batter swings at

O-Swing%: % of pitches outside the zone the batter swings at

Z-Contact%: % of pitches in the strike zone that the batter makes contact with when swinging

BABIP: batting average on balls in play

LA: launch angle – the degree of loft put on the trajectory or the ball. Positive LA means the ball is going up (to line drive or flyball). Negative LA means the ball is going down (to a ground ball).

GB%: percentage of batted balls that are hit on the ground (in infield)

FB%: percentage of batted balls not qualified as GB or line drive – hit in the air with loft (all stats above according to Fangraphs.com)

SBA%: Stolen Base Attempt percentage (according to BaseballSavant.mlb.com)