Not gonna lie to you guys. I started the weekend early. My father-in-law forced (nope) shots on me and we watched fireworks on the fourth and, so, of course I’m 100% drunk…….errrrrrr…….ready to talk about FanDuel’s 13-game slate. We’ll start with Zack Greinke ($9,400), who gets a match-up with the Rockies outside of Coors, as the pitcher I’m locking in as my cash pitcher on FanDuel today. Grienke’s been as solid as they come, sporting a 2.90 ERA with a career-best 3.4% walk rate. His opponent, the Rockies, struggles outside of Coors, but I bet you don’t know how bad they struggle. Guess where they rank in wRC+ against right-handed pitching when they’re on the road. DFL – Dead F Last – with a wRC+ of 69 (noice), which pairs nicely with a 26% strikeout rate. Now that you know my favorite pitcher on FanDuel, let’s take a look at the rest of the slate <takes another shot>. Let’s go!
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Jacob deGrom, SP: $10,700 – Am I a Phillies fan? Yes. Am I a realist and know deGrom’s a beast and will most likely dominate them? Yes I am. deGrom’s a beast, as noted by his 30.3% strikeout rate. If you can find the value bats, lock him in.
Dakota Hudson, SP: $8,500 – Welcome to your play against the Giants in Oracle Park play. Hudson gets on that struggle bus against left-handed batters, but luckily for him Oracle Park suppresses lefty power for days.
Martin Perez, SP: $6,900 – Yeah, okay, fine, you caught me. I’m only recommending Perez because of his price and I’m immature. I told you I’ve been drinking. Seriously though, the Rangers are 23rd in the league in wRC+ against lefties outside of Arlington and have a league-worst 32.9% strikeout rate.
Christian Vasquez, C/1B: $3,000 – Wanna get different? Play a catcher on FanDuel. Oh, and in case you were worried, Vasquez has a .239 ISO and .384 wOBA against left-handed pitchers.
Matt Adams, C/1B: $2,900 – Fly-ball hitter against a ground-ball pitcher is always my favorite sneaky match-up and Adams has a .278 ISO against righties this year.
Jesus Aguilar, C/1B: $2,500 – Aguilar has not been fantastic this year, but if cheap upside is what you’re looking for, this is your guy.
Ketel Marte, 2B: $3,800 – The Diamondbacks face Antonio Senzatela, who currently has a 12.7% strikeout rate to go with his 10.5% walk rate. Neither of these numbers is good and Marte should have his way today.
Keston Hiura, 2B: $2,800 – What a difference having Hiura in the lineup instead of Travis Shaw makes. Facing a lefty, this is just too cheap for the uber-prospect.
Matt Chapman, 3B: $3,800 – Chapman has been out of this world against left-handed pitchers, with a .354 ISO and .372 wOBA.
Vlad Guerrero, Jr., 3B: $3,200 – Dylan Bundy has allowed a .281 ISO to righties this year. Vlad just so happens to be a righty.
Justin Turner, 3B: $3,000 – I really want to attack Eric Lauer (goodness, this sounds personal) with Dodgers hitters. Lauer’s allowed a 44.2% hard-hit rate to righties this year and I like Turner to take advantage here.
Xander Bogaerts, SS: $4,200 – I’m going to try my best to stack the Red Sox today, but they’re priced up (as they should be), so I might be taking a couple one-offs or maybe a mini-stack.
Jonathan Villar, SS: $3,400 – Aaron Sanchez struggles with his control. Villar will be leading off today and has some pop to go along with his speed upside.
Chris Taylor, SS: $2,900 – Chris Taylor has been ridiculous against southpaws this year. How ridiculous you ask? He’s only behind Cody Bellinger on the team in ISO at .302, and has a .401 wOBA. Why is this guy $2,900?
JD Martinez, OF: $4,400 – My top bat on the slate, but can I fit him in?
Max Kepler, OF: $3,700 – Kepler’s enjoying a breakout season and will bat atop the potent Twins lineup against Adrian Sampson.
Michael Conforto, OF: $3,500 – Conforto’s been excellent, sporting a .263 ISO to go along with his .392 wOBA.
Khris Davis, OF: $3,300 – Davis crushes lefties and has double-dong upside every day.
Bryan Reynolds, OF: $3,100 – How disappointed am I to find out his name’s not actually Burt Reynolds. That doesn’t take away anything from his .402 wOBA against right-handed pitchers this year, but is super disappointing.
Jarrod Dyson, OF: $2,900 – Dyson sits atop one of my favorite lineups of the day and has all kids of stolen base upside.
Ryan Braun, OF: $2,900 – Make sure you check the lineup later, because Braun is currently questionable, but he mashes lefties.
Jose Martinez, OF: $2,700 – Sure this is in Oracle Park, but Jose Martinez absolute destroys left-handed pitching to the tune of a .333 ISO and .456 wOBA, while striking out just 10.4% of the time.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Despite all the humidity pretty much across the country, no dangerous precipitation in the forecast.
Doing Lines In Vegas
While there are no massive favorites on today’s slate, there are a hand-full in the -200 range. My man Zack Greinke and Arizona are on top as -200 favorites against the Rockies, followed by the Braves (-198), the Astros (-198), the Mets (-196), and the Dodgers (-190). Currently there are four games with totals in double digits. The Blue Jays/Orioles, Twins/Rangers, and Royals/Nationals games come in at 10.5 and the Braves/Marlins come in at 10. My favorite play is the Diamondbacks’ team total of 4.5 runs against Antonio “I Only Throw Fastballs” Senzatella.
