My biggest advice for tonight and in the coming days is to pay close attention to lineup updates by beat writers. Only a couple of days left until the trade deadline and I suspect it will be a very busy one. Fantasy, especially DFS is all about opportunity and maximizing PAs. We don’t want to lose a player by “setting and forgetting” and have someone scratched right before the first pitch. Personally, I use @fantasylabsmlb and turn on notifications. They post lineups as well as updates and trades. Could save you some time if you don’t feel like stalking multiple beat writer accounts.
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Zack Wheeler, SP: $10,600 – Currently the league leader in innings pitched, he is enjoying a true breakout season. Wheeler has the highest K-rate in his career and his swinging strike rate is almost 2 points higher than his career-best. Along with his excellent command and aptitude for creating ground balls has him sitting with a 2.37 ERA and a 2.49 FIP. Wheeler this season has a 3.86 ERA against Washington in 3 starts this season. Some of that appears to be bad luck as he has .375 BABIP against and a more familiar 2.54 FIP. This is a better matchup than people realize at first glance.
Andrew Heaney, SP: $7,600 – Heaney might be one of the most frustrating players from a fantasy perspective. This is his 4th straight season in which he has underperformed compared to his FIP. Heaney has also been able to strikeout guys but the inconsistent command has led to home run trouble at times. It’s no secret that the Rockies struggle away from Coors field, however this year they have been exceptionally bad. Their team wRC+ on the road is 64. They have the 6th highest k-rate and a league average walk rate. Playing Heaney isn’t for the faint of heart but you can’t ask for a better match-up.
Catcher/First Base
Jose Abreu, C/1B: $3,600 – His mound opponent, Kris Bubic, comes into this one with a 4.72 ERA and a 5.76 FIP. He has struggled with command, with a walk rate approaching 12%. He has also given up 14 homers in just 68.2 IP. It’s going to be very hot in KC tonight with a heat index of 106° at first pitch. I suspect Kauffman could play something like Coors tonight with the heat and giant outfield. Most of the White Sox are in play tonight.
Jared Walsh, C/1B: $3,100 – Chi Chi Gonzalez is arguably the worst pitcher in MLB. Since the start of 2019, he has had a 5.87 ERA over 173.1 IP. WOOF. Walsh on the other hand is loving life without Pujols, the slugger has .836 OPS with 22 dingers on the year.
Second Base
Jean Segura, 2B: $3,200 – Comes into this one carrying a 9-game hitting streak. He’ll get Patrick Corbin in this one. Corbin has given up 3 or more ERs in 4 of his last 5. Moreover, he has just been bad throughout. He is in the bottom 10 in just about every category with pitchers that have thrown at least 80 innings.
Eduardo Escobar, 2B: $3,100 – I suspect the Rangers will close the roof tonight as the heat index is forecasted north of 100°. Globe Life Field plays very much like a hitters park with the roof open and the added heat should make things interesting with a bad pitcher on the mound. Jordan Lyles has the 2nd highest HR/9 among qualified pitchers and has a FIP just north of 5.5.
Third Base
Brian Anderson, 3B: $2,800 – Injuries have derailed his season to this point. However, he has had a 3-game hitting streak since coming off the IL and finds himself in a good match-up against Jorge Lopez. His current 5.84 ERA is his lowest mark since 2018, where it was 5.03. Ouch.
Rougned Odor, 3B: $3,300 – Not a big fan of the price but his power combined with mediocre pitching should draw some consideration. It has not been much of a career renaissance with the Rays for Michael Wacha like many had hoped. His ERA and FIP are both north of 5 with a 1.9 HR/9 over 66.1 IP this season.
Short Stop
Willy Adames, SS: $2,900 – Adames has been nothing short of a godsend for the Brewers. Since the trade, he has .913 OPS and a 145 wRC+. The Brewers will face Max Kranick, who has performed better than his 5.73 ERA would indicate. However, he never pitched about High-A prior to 2021. He doesn’t have much of a prospect pedigree and projecting against him can be tough. Considering his experience (or lack thereof) and an organization known for not developing pitchers, I am going to attach until proven wrong.
Tim Anderson, SS: $3,700 – Price is a little steep for someone with only 9 homers. Despite his dip in power, he has still been a productive hitter with a 116 wRC+. Game conditions will be good tonight and I don’t mind paying up if you’re looking to stack.
Outfield
Shohei Ohtani, OF: $4,400 – Probably the chalk play of the night but for good reason. Shohei and Chi Chi are opposite ends MLBs talent spectrum at the moment. Also, since the Angels have modified their right-field wall, Angels Stadiums is the best in MLB for LHH home runs.
Joey Gallo, OF: $3,000 – This is my low ownership/sneak play of the slate. Gallo actually has better numbers in his career vs LHP. Most people will see the lefty/lefty matchup and move on. At $3k with his power, we shouldn’t overlook him though. Bonus that Madison Bumgarner is very much over the hill in his MLB career.
Eloy Jimenez, OF: $3,300 – The big man is back much earlier than we expected. A game vs a weak SP on a hot night is just what he needs to continue a strong start to his season.
Kole Calhoun, OF: $2,500 – Another player whose season has been derailed by injury. He just hasn’t been able to get it going, but he does have hits in 3 of his last 4. Jordan Lyles has really struggled in his career against LHH. His ERA is over a run higher (5.09) than against RHH (3.98).
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There isn’t a threat of rain for anyone tonight. The middle of the country finds itself in the middle of a disgusting heatwave. Texas will likely close their roof, but there is a game in Kansas City that should be prime for scoring runs.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Miami (Jordan Holloway) at Baltimore (Jorge Lopez) – Miami to win +110 – O/U 9.5 runs scored – take the over. Lopez is atrocious, he’s consistently been one of the league’s worst SP over the last 3 seasons. Holloway has decent surface numbers; however, he has consistently shown control issues across every level in his young career. His BABIP against is .213, which is unsustainable and I suspect an unpleasant game is coming his way soon.
