What’s up degeneratti? If you’re here, it’s either because you love me or really want to hand over your money to Fanduel. I hope it’s because you love me! Did you know that a bunch of the Razzbois are in DFS Wars — a charity competition put on by RotoRanks to support the LostBoyz, Inc., and spread some good positivity among DFS touts? In the first week, yours truly finished 6th out of 15, just behind our good friend Son, and just ahead of my DFS co-captain MattTruss.
From a DFS strategy standpoint, I want to highlight that I’m building lineups for a single-entry, which is why I look for inefficient price points or my favorite hitters. I personally don’t have the capital to do Mega Multi Entry tournaments; I know people who put together 300 lineups per day! That’s an astounding feat. Regardless of whether you’re in the single-entry mold or the MME mold, here are my top plays for the day.
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Overall Slate: There are a lot of bad pitchers on the slate, which means it could be a hitter’s day. For a single-entry, I probably go with Sale and Kikuchi and then your favorite hitters to induce some leverage. For MME, try to find the cheaper hitter stacks because TOR and BOS are going to be owned everywhere.
Chris Sale: Sale takes the bump for the first time in ages, and that means you get the variance discount! Are people brave enough to roster Sale in a tournament or cash game? Probably. I mean, Cal Quantrill won our DFS Wars round 1 for the one guy brave enough to start a pitcher who can’t whiff anybody (yet still managed 10 strikeouts). Sale will probably have a 5IP limit (6 at the most for sure), and that’s not stellar for DFS. But what is stellar, is that Sale has been whiffing everybody in his rehab starts, and we’re talking about one of the K masters of the modern era. Variance be celebrated: Sale is here to save you.
Kenta Maeda: His baseball card numbers look kinda ugly recently, but his FIP is 3.87 and he’s K’ing over 10/9. Regression is gonna hit, and you’ll get some cash when it does.
Yusei Kikuchi: Here’s that brave pick like Cal Quantrill that will make you look like a genius. Kikuchi pitches against the Blue Jays (gasp) and he’s been allowing hits at a greater than 10/9 rate recently. But! He’s also K’ing 12 per 9. So, this is where you let variance take over. What if Kikuchi gets 8Ks over 6IP and allows a bunch of hard-hit balls, but gets that lucky BABIP turn? Then you’re celebrating. Because if he bombs, well, why were you playing him in a cash game against TOR anyway?
Jose Altuve / Yordan Alvarez / Kyle Tucker — The Astros play the Angels and Jaime Barria. Barria really can’t K anybody (4.6 K/9 on the season) so it’s time to let variance play its part here. Astros should make plenty of contact and that gives a nice upside.
Jose Ramirez / Franmil Reyes — Face off against Willy Peralta, who had one good start last week but otherwise has a FIP over 5 and a K/9 of about 5.5/9. The Guardians might be a bit low-owned in this one because they’re not exactly an offensive juggernaut anymore.
Salvador Perez / Whit Merrifield — Face off against Jon Lester, who bottomed out with 2Ks over 5 IP in his last outing and has an FIP of 5.50 on the year. Royals should make contact and will be another cheap team to stack.
I’m Only Happy When it Rains:
Rain likely in the northeast near PHI, WAS, BOS and the southeast near MIA. Watch out for these PPD if you’re submitting lineups early.
Doing Lines in Vegas:
OK, Chris Sale is back. But he and the Red Sox are -270 against the Baltimore Orioles (+225) at the time of writing. What if the Sox only let Sale go 4 innings? What if he’s tired early? Yes, I don’t think it’s probable, but much of that line hinges on Sale being 2019 Sale. Except, it’s 2021. If you’re worried about Sale in DFS, put a counter bet on the Orioles to help your cause.
