Welcome to the Friday FanDuel writeup! We’re starting the weekend off with a full 15-game slate and there’s one pitcher that stands about the rest for me – Charlie Morton ($11,300). Somewhere out there Kate Upton’s reading this calling Morton a fake-stud – ala when she called Rick Porcello a fake-Cy Young – but hear me out, Kate. It really seems unfair (especially to a Phillies fan who only got four starts of studly Morton in 2016) that Charlie’s having a career-best season in terms of strikeout rate (30.5%) and walk rate (7.1%). The icing on the cake for Morton is the matchup against the Tigers. For the year, the Tigers have the second-worst wOBA against right-handed pitchers and the third-highest strikeout rate at 26.1%. Let’s take a look at the rest of today’s slate.
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Noah Syndergaard, SP: $9,800 – If you’re not quite willing to spend up to Charlie Morton, then Syndergaard’s my “Ace on a Budget” option.
Chris Paddack, SP: $8,500 – “Ace on a Budget” part deux. Paddack has some upside against the Phillies, but the Padres have been managing his innings, so he’s not likely to go deep into the game.
Peter Alonso, C/1B: $4,000 – Alonso might be my favorite non-Red Sox bat on today’s slate. He faces Mike Montgomery, who doesn’t strike anyone out and Alonso destroys lefties.
Daniel Murphy, C/1B: $3,000 – The value on this Coors bat is just too much, making Murphy a must-play.
Brandon Belt, C/1B: $2,800 – Belt gets out of Oracle Park and faces Mike Leake. Double upgrade, all the way.
Isan Diaz, 2B: $2,900 – I’m treating second base as a punt play today, so feel free to choose your level of punting. Here we have the “Coors Premium Punt”.
Luis Urias, 2B: $2,400 – Next we have the “Okay matchup, decent park” punt.
Marco Hernandez, 2B: $2,100 – Finally, you’re classic “In a really good lineup” punt.
Manny Machado, 3B: $3,700 – The Padres face Vince Velasquez today, who has struggled against both sides of the plate this year. In fact, his splits have him being a little worse against right-handed batters. Do you know what the Padres have? Good right-handed batters.
Jose Ramirez, 3B: $3,600 – Ramirez has been scorching hot since the All-Star Break, putting up a 166 wRC+.
Todd Frazier, 3B: $2,800 – If I’m looking to save some money at third-base, Frazier’s my guy. He has a .397 wOBA against lefties this year with a .270 ISO.
Xander Bogaerts, SS: $4,200 – The Red Sox are my favorite bats on today’s slate, so naturally, they’re super expensive.
Willy Adames, SS: $2,700 – Adames is batting close to .300 against lefties and the Rays face Daniel Norris and then the bad Tigers’ bullpen.
Amed Rosario, SS: $2,500 – Rosario is projected to lead-off for the Mets today against Mike Montgomery and as much as I like Bogaerts, this value might just be too much to pass up.
Mookie Betts, OF: $4,100 – The Red Sox take on Aaron Brooks and the Orioles and have a 7.3 implied run total. It’s not a question of “if” I’m getting some Red Sox in, it’s a question of “how many”.
Andrew Benintendi, OF: $3,800 – If we lock-in Morton with Bogaerts, Betts, and Benintendi, we’re only left with $2,350 per position to spend, so the “how many” answer may only be two.
Tommy Pham, OF: $3,600 – Pham has a .401 wOBA against left-handed pitching this year, while Daniel Norris has struggled. That’s all, he’s just struggled.
Anthony Santander, OF: $3,100 – The Orioles face Rick Porcello today, who’s ERA is north of 5.50, so I wanted to find a way to pick on him. Unfortunately, the Orioles lineup is super-meh. Santander is one of the lone bright spots, putting up a .227 ISO and .372 wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Ian Happ, OF: $3,100 – Happ looks like a decent major leaguer after a stint in the minors. He’s walking 15.4% against righties, with a .303 ISO.
J.D. Davis, OF: $3,100 – This completes our four-man Mets stack. Davis has put up a 176 wRC+ since the All-Star break.
Hunter Renfroe, OF: $3,000 – Too much power in this bat to ignore him against Velasquez who has a tendency to give up bombs.
Jesse Winker, OF: $3,000 – Winker is projected to lead-off against Adam Wainwright and has a .380 wOBA against righties this year.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s a chance of precipitation in Kansas City for the Royals/Mets game, but it doesn’t seem very threatening. Other than that, the only weather effect looks to be the hot, hot heat of Texas, where it’s forecasted to be in the upper 90s, so give a bump up to bats there.
Doing Lines In Vegas
My boy, Charlie Morton and the Rays lead the way as a -310 favorite, followed by the Red Sox (-250), the Rockies (-210), and the Astros (-200), so give bumps up to the pitchers in those games for the potential win. The highest total of the day is in Coors (12) for the Rockies/Marlins, followed by Red Sox/Orioles (11.5) and Yankees/Indians (10.5).
