Happy Friday DFSers! Unlike yesterday, when we had one clear-cut ace, we have a handful of choices on this 14 game slate. I’ll cover our cash game SPs in a minute, but I want to lead with Carlos Carrasco, who comes in at $10,500. Carlos has been more boom or busty (nice) than he has in previous years, but he seemed to have started putting things together with 10 and 11 K outings…..before he took a come-backer off the bat of Joe Mauer to the pitching arm. This will be Senor Carrasco’s first start back off the DL, but even in a seemingly juicy match-up with Oakland (active players are a combined 4/53 with 25 Ks vs him), I’m here to push you to fade. Carrasco will most likely be eased back in (phrasing), since he only threw 58 pitches in his rehab start, and history backs us up here. In 2016, he hit the DL for a similar amount of time, threw 53 pitches in his rehab start, and in his first start back was limited to 78 pitches over 5 innings. With the other aces on the slate, fading Carlos Carrasco, who will most likely have a limited upside, seems like an easy decision. With crossing off one of our higher priced pitchers, lets take a look at what we’re left with.
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Chris Sale, SP: $12,500 – He’s a stud and the Royals are dead last in wOBA vs LHPs in the last 30 days. Easy cash game play.
Jacob deGrom, SP: $12,000 – Stud numero dos. His opponent, Tampa Bay, has a bottom 5 wOBA vs RHPs and a bottom 5 K-rate vs RHPs over the last month. The only question is will the Mets’ bats ever put up runs for him to get a W?
Lance McCullers, SP: $11,300 – Lance comes with more risk. When he’s on, he’s studly. But if he’s missing his spots or getting squeezed, it can get ugly. This makes McCullers a GPP play. Facing the team that Ks the most in the White Sox, he has the upside to compete with Sale and DeGrom for the top scoring pitcher of the night.
Mike Foltynewicz, SP: $8,800 – Facing Milwaukee in Miller Park is not ideal. But the Brewcrew strike out at the 3rd highest clip over the last month. Couple that with Folty’s 29.5% K-rate, and we have another GPP play.
Yonder Alonso, C/1B: $2,900 – This area’s going to be all about finding value. Alonso bats 5th in a potent lineup and faces Paul Blackburn who sports a 6.46 ERA.
John Ryan Murphy, C/1B: $2,300 – Keep an eye on lineups for this one. Since Alex Avila hit the DL, Murphy has been playing more often and crushes the lefties (.298 ISO, .383 wOBA).
Max Stassi, C/1B: $2,200 – Stassi’s had some increased playing time since Brian McCann landed on the DL. Good lineup, cheap bat with a little pop, and you know playing a catcher is going to be relatively low owned in a GPP.
Eduardo Nunez, 2B: $2,500 – I’ll be honest, I don’t love it. His K-rate is up from last year, but this is a cheap 2B in a great lineup that has one of the highest projected run totals on the slate.
Alen Hanson, 2B: $2,200 – Another cheapy where you have to keep an eye on the lineups before lock. There’s a chance that Hanson leads off, at $2,200, vs a pitcher who gives up a 58% hard hit rate to left handed batters (league average is around 30%).
Xander Bogaerts, SS: $3,500 – I’m all about the cheap life, but this is a discount for a player of this caliber vs the anti-studly Jason Hammel.
Nick Ahmed, SS: $2,500 – Lefty masher (.241 ISO, .366 wOBA) at a premium position.
Rafael Devers, 3B: $2,700 – I miss 2017 Devers. He seemed to make a little progress in June, so if you need a cheap 3B, he, Bogaerts, and Devers makes a pretty cheap 3 man stack.
Josh Reddick, OF: $2,600 – Started off slow, but since June 1st he’s gone .346/.387/.418.
Mark Trumbo, OF: $3,300 – Lets combine two small samples and act like they confirm this pick, k? Since June 16th, .295/.348/.721 with a .426 ISO. ALSO, in 12 PAs vs Lance Lynn, he’s 5/10 with 3 HRs. Ride the streak!
Joey Gallo, OF: $2,700 – Double dong power upside for relatively cheap vs Jordan Zimmermann.
Nick Williams, OF: $2,500 – Usually bats 5th vs RHP and facing a minimal K guy in Trevor Williams.
Wil Myers, OF: $3,100 – Another small sample, but 7/15 with a HR in his plate appearances vs Zack Godley.
Jim Adduci, OF: $2,000 – A complete punt play. If you’re looking to get a decent bat in your lineup with Sale or DeGrom, you could do worse than Aducci vs BF Bartolo.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Clear skies across the country tonight. 15 miles per hour of wind blowing in from center field in Cleveland and a projected temperature of 101.6 in LA for the Dodgers/Angels (that there’s hitting weather). Finally, with a temperature of 110 degrees in Arizona, the dome will be closed……..activate humidor power!!
Doing Lines In Vegas
Big big favorites in Boston (-300) and Houston (-290), as well as Cleveland (-190) and the Nats (-200). On the low end of the totals, we have TB/Mets at 7 runs. Fun fact, Tampa Bay has a top 5 team ERA over the last month. With no Coors on the slate, there’s a tie for the high total at 9.5 runs; NYY/Tor and Tex/Det, however, both numbers are juiced on the under and may move to a 9 run total.
