Good Afternoon MLB DFS’rs, and welcome today’s FanDuel analysis.
Before we dive into the today’s slate, I want to spend a few short moments talking about mental illness. With it being Suicide Awareness month and recent news about Dak Prescott I thought it would be good to share some personal info about myself. About a year ago my brother took his own life. He had everything you could ask for in life. Beautiful family, super successful business, married his high school sweetheart. But he suffered in silence. In the end it was just too much to bear. Please, if you’re ever feeling down, SEEK HELP. Talk to friends, talk to family. Just know, someone loves you. And someone will be beyond crushed if you’re gone.
If you’re still with me, let’s dive into today’s action. We have a small three game main slate that I’ll focus on. I’ll be honest, I’m not a huge fan of anything where there’s less than four games. The game that I’ll be focusing most of my attention on is the Braves/Orioles game. In this game you have two pitchers who are both below average. This should, in my and Vegas’ opinion, be the highest scoring game of the day. If you’re going to win all the money, tonight’s a night where you may need to get a a little crazy. Pick a batter opposing the pitcher you’re using, stack the bottom of the lineup. When it’s this small, go crazy! Let’s look at some individual plays!
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Dinelson Lamet, SP: $10,100 – The match-up is dreadful as he faces one of the top lineups in the game. That said, of the teams playing tonight the Dodgers have the highest K rate over the past week. Over the past week, Lamet is averaging 10.93 K/9, and most importantly a low Hard Hit % of 26.5%. HE’S NOT SAFE, but he probably has the most upside tonight.
Freddie Freeman, C/1B: $4,300 – Freeman is probably my top play of the night and will most likely be chalky. His numbers over the past week are 3 HR, 265 wRC+, 5 Barrels and a .577 wOBA. The only reason to not play him tonight would be to differentiate yourself from the crowd and hope that he forgets how to play baseball.
Edwin Encarnacion, C/1B: $2,900 – If you decide to not play Freeman, another option is good ole Edwin. His numbers have not been great this year, and he’s far from a safe play, but he has a good history against Berrios. In 22 PA he’s batting .318 with a .365 wOBA.
Dansby Swanson, 2B: $3,700 – This is more than I’d like to pay for Swanson, a lot more. But he’s in the best environment of the night. He’s also been putting up pretty good numbers. Over the past week he has a 50% hard hit rate and a .442 wOBA.
Yoan Moncada, 3B: $3,400 – Another White Sox player with good history against Berrios. Gonna go out on a limb and say that Moncada is my ‘non Freeman’ home run call of the night.
Chris Taylor, SS: $2,800 – Taylor is one of the hottest bats in the game right now. He’s homered in back to back games and has 9 hits in his past 6 games. This past week he had a wOBA of .382. Although the match-up is less than optimal, he’s cheap and should pay off his salary.
D.J. Stewart, OF: $2,900 – Stewart’s price should be in the mid 3k range, not less than 3k. Over the past week he has a .552 wOBA,3 homers, and a 258 wRC+. Really like the match-up tonight against Toussaint, who has given up a .401 wOBA to lefties in his career.
Eloy Jimenez, OF: $3,400 – Another player that is scorching hot. In his last 3 games he has 28.7, 21,7, 25.2 points. No reason he can’t do that again tonight.
Nelson Cruz, OF: $4,200 – Really like the Twins lineup tonight. Cease has not been good of late. He may actually be the worst pitcher throwing tonight. His only saving grace is that he’s been giving up more ground balls than fly balls. I don’t love playing FB hitters against GB pitchers, though, and Cruz is an extreme FB hitter.
From a stacking standpoint, really love the Braves/Orioles game. The White Sox/Twins game shouldn’t be far behind though.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There shouldn’t be any weather concerns tonight.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Braves so far are the biggest favorites on the board tonight.
Sorry to hear about your brother, be well.
Very sorry to hear about your brother, thanks for sharing…hopefully it helps someone out here.
Hey man, I been reading all your posts through the season and figured I’d pop in to say thank you. I always double check these and sometime re-think my batty calls based off of your info. Keep up the great work!
Thank you for the feedback! This has been an absolute wild season and hope it never happens again!
Would you start Caratini, Jeffers or Varsho this week in a points league?
I’d lean Varsho