DFS is a mental grind sometimes, right? Sometimes you feel you have it all figured out then you have a bad week and you are questioning everything you are doing. Well, you are not alone my friends. It happens to just about everybody unless you are somehow from the future and already know all the mysteries of the world and then you probably wouldn’t be wasting your time with us DFS degenerates now, would you? Yea up and down week for myself, there were some weird games and calls this week as I just finished watching the Phillies and Mets Sunday Night and oh boy did the Phillies look terrible and somehow almost pulled it out. I mean having a three-run home run taken away on a replay call that’s got to be about the worst but then again some of their defensive plays and not paying attention to runners running home really served them right didn’t it. Anyway, it’s a loooooong season guys take a day or two off if you need for mental health, and sometimes that helps in getting things back on track. Stay the course and keep grinding it out. You put the work in you will get results. You will find your rhythm and get back on the winning side of things in no time.
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10 game slate today all starting later in the day and what do we have here…It’s a pitcher who nobody knows what to do with.
Steven Matz ($9,300) Good Ole Stevie has blessed us with greatness and pretty scary outings right. You either believe in him and will ride or die with him or you will stay away from him like he has genital warts or something. Digging into him and finally getting on board with him for today’s slate I’m a little nervous to be honest, but I’m willing to get behind him because I believe in him and what he has to offer. He is throwing a nifty sinker around 95 mph and locating it in the upper part of the zone and mixing in a changeup and curveball down and away to keep the hitters off-balance. Hitters are not making hard contact against him generating lots of groundballs. Matz faces an Oakland A’s team who barely managed to avoid a sweep against the Orioles on Sunday and were baffled by another lefty John Means during that series. Virtually all of Matz’s statcast metrics are a vast improvement from last year’s and he looks to be locked in so far this year. You will be different from most of the slate out there who will be throwing Glasnow and Buehler most likely and can lock in some great hitters today and won’t be hurt by playing Matz. Matz still is striking out batters at a 1-1 clip with 27 K’s in 27 Innings and although he had a stinker of an outing his last outing against the Nationals he still likes pitching on the road where he is 3-0 so far this season with a 2.60 ERA and only 1 HR allowed in 17 innings. (3 starts) I like Matz a lot here in this matchup and won’t be highly owned.
If you can’t stomach using Matz today eat the chalk and go to Walker Buehler ($10,200) against the Cubbies. Walker has been very good and consistent so far this year going at least 6 innings in all of his starts and in his last two outings he has struck out 9 and 10 respectively. Walker is a safe bet to do what you want him to do today go deep in the game strikeout close to double digits if not reach that since the Cubs do strike out a ton. He will most likely be in line for the win when he departs in the 7th inning or so and you will take that with a smile and hope you picked some good hitters. Your hitter pool will be a bit more challenged but they are out there so Buehler is a very good play today on this slate. No need to overthink it.
I’m targeting all West Coast teams today. I think the matchups look good for the Padres, Mariners, and Rockies, so I will do some 3/2/2 stacks with a one-off on some Twins batters against the Rangers. Here are some I like the best.
C/1B- Alex Kiriloff ($2,400) Mmmmm… great young lefty masher who is on a hot streak against a mediocre righty. Sign me up! Kiriloff has looked great lately and Dunning has not. Dunning’s sinker tops out at 90 mph and I think Kiriloff is up to the task of driving one of those out today.
2B- Jake Cronenworth ($2,800 ) Something about this guy you always want to root for and him to be in your lineup. He steals bases doesn’t strike out and when he plays he seems to always be involved in some exciting play. He’s a guy that out-produces his value constantly and I always like getting him in my lineups. He faces off against a middling starter today Tyler Anderson who hasn’t blown up yet but only goes 5 innings, then its a bullpen game. Jake hits lefties well anyway and I’m sure will see a righty out of the bullpen eventually to get that nice matchup. I’m feeling good about Cronenworth giving one of Anderson’s pitches a ride out of the ole ballpark today.
3B- Manny Machado ($3,600) Manny has been hitting the ball too well and has not much to show for it to have this last much longer. His hard-hit % and max exit velocity are very good and he is overdue. He’s limiting his k’s and when he makes contact it sounds so good you expect it to be a home run every time. It’s a matter of time before the market corrects itself and starts to pay dividends for Machado. You want to be at the forefront of this hot streak and couldn’t come at a better time against a soft throwing pitcher like Anderson.
SS-Trevor Story ($3,800) Story has been definitely heating up of late after a slow start. Story got hit by a pitch in the hand in Sunday’s game so check the lineup to see if he is in but x-rays are negative so hopefully, he doesn’t miss anytime. Trevor has hit HR’s in back to back games and faces Aaron Sanchez who has only been able to go 4 or 5 innings in his starts so far and has had control issues walking 5 batters which can lead to a nice hanging curveball offering from Sanchez that Story is able to drive into the seats for a home run.
OF- Mitch Haniger ($3,300) Mitch has been seeing the ball well so far this season. He is barreling up the ball and driving it to all fields. He has 7 HR’s all ready to go with 21 RBIs. Mitch faces Dean Kremer today so Mitch should be rearing to go and hopefully hits one out.
OF- Trent Grisham ($3,700) Trent has been great this season. Trent is not afraid to steal bases (5 SB) doesn’t swing at pitches out of the zone (92 rating) and hits at the top of a powerful Padre lineup. A lot to like here against Tyler Anderson and his soft throwing pitch mix.
OF- Byron Buxton ($4,500 ) What a great sight to behold. Buxton is finally paying off for those season-long owners who picked him knowing he has a better than average shot of being on the dreaded injured list. Buxton is hitting a robust .408 with 8 HR and chipped in 3 stolen bases so far and is this finally the year?
UTL- Fernando Tatis Jr. ( $4,400) How can you not take Tatis Jr. in a great spot like this. He has come back from his injury with style and popped a HR in his first AB back from an injury; that’s saying something for sure. Tatis looks ready to carry this playoff-contending team on his back even if he’s less than 10o%. Ride those west coast teams today if you can and finish strong!
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The weather looks great no issues around MLB parks today.
Doing Lines in Vegas
LA Angels +100
I think this might be a shifting line but if you can get plus money on a home team underdog with Ohtani on the mound that looks juicy to me,