Happy unofficial start to the weekend DFSers. Richardo has started his weekend extra early (Wednesday) so I’m filling in this week. I love playing the Friday night slates on FanDuel, they are usually jam packed with games and the more games, the more advantage I think I have on the field. We’re getting a little short-changed tonight with only 12 games instead of the usual 15, but we’ll make due. For our cash game lineups tonight, you can’t help but build around Lance Lynn ($10,500). If you had told me I’d be typing that sentence back in March, I’d have called you crumby with crackers. There’s no denying Lynn has been phenomenal though, his 10 K/9 and 2 BB/9 is ace-like and his 2.94 FIP suggests his 3.83 ERA could even come down lower. The Tigers on the other hand have been the opposite of phenomenal, they’ve been un-phenomenal. They rank ahead of only the Marlins in team OPS as well as team OPS vs. righties. It’s ugly folks and Lynn is far and away your safest bet tonight.
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James Paxton, SP: $7,600 – I get that he’s facing one of the top offenses in the majors and that they just crushed his soul in Fenway Park, but this is a really cheap price for an ace. It’s a gamble for sure, but I kinda love this type of gamble for a GPP.
Martin Perez, SP: $7,000 – If you’d prefer a less risky gamble, we have Martin Perez who is cheap but also not ace-like. He does happen to be facing the Royals however, who are a bottom five team in the majors in team OPS. Perez is the cheaper play if you don’t like so much risk in your lineups.
Steven Matz, SP: $7,800 – Don’t fall for the fools gold with Matz tonight. He just shut Pittsburgh down hard at home, but this one’s on the road and I don’t love it. Call it a hunch but I don’t see Matz repeating his last performance against the same team just five days later. I imagine he’ll be popular given his price and that performance, even more reason to avoid.
Dustin May, SP: $5,800 – May is the ultimate in high risk/high reward. His price is tiny, but so could his innings. The Dodgers are saying he’s ready to go a full workload but you never know how these things might work out in the first go-round. I would definitely make a GPP lineup or two with May just for funsies and see what kind of big bats it gets you. Just don’t blow your bankroll because of FOMO.
Jose Abreu, C/1B: $2,900 – I’m going to be right up front with you, I love picking on Jason Vargas tonight in his first start in the bandbox for the Phils. I’ll beat up on a 36 year old with a 4.70 FIP just about any day and I think the White Sox will too.
Welington Castillo, C/1B: $2,100 – For the ultimate power move in GPPs, I love sliding a catcher into my C/1B slot to differentiate myself. Castillo fits the bill nicely and is a big savings to get in some bigger bats later on. The Beef is out tonight due to a family emergency. If you still want to sneak in a catcher here, Posey ($3,500) and Vogt ($3,000) are decent options at Coors or you can look at Brandon Belt ($3,600).
Jonathan Schoop, 2B: $2,600 – Schoop has been frustrating this year and seems to be homerun or nothing of late. That’s fine by me as homers pay the bills in DFS.
Wilmer Flores, 2B: $2,100 – If you can’t hit homers, at least get yourself a prime match-up. Flores and the rest of the D-Backs certainly have that tonight. I had to do a double take at Joe Ross’ ERA today…9.85! Holy smokes that’s bad. Cram in D-Backs wherever you can tonight!
Nolan Arenado, 3B: $4,200 – Did I mentioned there’s a Coors field game tonight? If not, consider yourself informed. Arenado and Story are my biggest priority bats tonight and I will do whatever I can to squeeze them in.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B: $3,400 – If you’re feeling the fade or don’t have enough monies, Vlad is a suitable fill-in at 3B as well. He’s in Baltimore which we know plays like Coors Light this season thanks to O’s pitching.
Trevor Story, SS: $4,100 – See Arenado blurb, this game should be bonkers.
David Dahl, OF: $3,500 – One more Coors bat, this one a little more affordable and with the platoon advantage.
Randal Grichuk, OF: $2,800 – You’ll have to watch the lineup for this one, Grichuk took a ball to the schnoz last night and could sit today. Apparently, he was walking around fine last night but today could be a different manner. If he’s in there, I like him tonight.
Corey Dickerson, OF: $2,600 – Alright, we’ve picked on the Phils enough, let’s go with one the other way and say Corey Dickerson has a nice night against Ivan Nova and his 5.23 ERA/5.22 FIP. Lefties and Righties have been clobbering him equally this year, so any Phillie should be a good bet tonight.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No news is good news and it looks like a perfect day for baseball!
Doing Lines In Vegas
The highest over/under is obviously in Coors where we’re looking at a 13 spot. I like the over there with Peter Lambert facing Shaun Anderson. Call me crazy. I’ll also take the over in Philly with 9.5. The lowest over/under tonight is in LA with Dustin May taking on Eric Lauer and the Padres. Even Vegas likes May’s start tonight I guess. They are decent favorites at -180. The biggest favorite though is Wade Miley and the Astros at -275 followed closely by Lynn and the Rangers at -265.