Well folks, we got one of the munniest Mondays so far this season and it looks like only 6 games are scheduled and the pitching looks to be pretty mediocre at best. Last week we had a Matz-o Monday which didn’t work out so well unfortunately but I did tout Maeda to a reader instead of Houser (Never Houser btw) so hopefully, he took the suggestion and played Maeda which turned out good if he did. Hopefully, you have been employing some different tactics this year as I have seen winners and have been doing some myself of some different stacks this year. So far since offense has been a little depressed this year full stacks are becoming dicier to play and you need to be diversifying your lineups a little more and entertaining playing a 3/2/2 stack and getting those key guys in your lineup.
Let’s start off another great week with a pitcher that has had quite the turnaround so far this year Alex Wood ($8,900). Wood has had quite the resurgence this season so far and has pitched really well allowing 2 runs or less in every start so far this season (4 starts). Wood relies on 3 pitches to keep hitters off balance a sinker slider combo and a changeup. The slider is a relatively new pitch for Wood and has been very effective striking out 18 of his 22 batters with his wipeout slider pitch. Wood commands all three pitches very nicely using them all fairly equally. Wood’s chase rate is top tier. Also, his barrel% indicates not a lot of hard hits are being hit off of Wood. In fact, there have been only 2 barreled-up hits out of 58 batted balls. Wood faces the Rangers today who fare much worse against left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching in all the major categories (.298 OBP, .380 SLG, .678 OPS) Look for Wood to go 7 INN 1 ER and have 7 K’s. You will certainly take that on this slate today.
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If you aren’t feeling Wood, you can look in the same game for an alternative and start Kyle Gibson ($9,500). Gibson isn’t the Gibson of old this season and has a deep 6 pitch arsenal which he commands very well. He throws a similar sinker slider combo like Wood from the right-hand side and aside from his stinker of an outing opening day he has performed outstandingly. His xERA and xwOBA are looking very good so far and batters have not been able to barrel many baseballs up allowing only 2 HR’s so far in 41 Innings which is outstanding. Both pitchers in this game have a workman-like approach to their starts pounding the zone and keeping the hitters guessing and off-balance. I expect both pitchers to work into the 6th inning at least with 6-7 k’s and I see a 1-0 game when both pitchers depart. I lean a little more towards Wood because I think he commands better with his slider and has that out pitch that has been working so well lately.
I’m targeting three teams for my hitters today facing very underwhelming pitchers today and some will probably be bullpen games which could lead to a lot of runs. The teams are Astros, Diamondbacks, and the Orioles. I would try and get as many players from these teams as I could and some of them I like are C- Carson Kelly ($3,700) 1B/OF- Ryan Mountcastle ($2,600) 1B- Yuli Gurriel ($3,400 ) 2B- Jose Altuve ($3,700) OF- Mullins ($3,300). C Kelly had the day off on Sunday so he should be in the lineup today. 1B/3B Mountcastle had 2 hits and 2 RBI yesterday against the Red Sox and I think he has been playing better of late. 1B Gurriel has been lights out so far and still relatively affordable to roster. Altuve hits at the top of the lineup and should get 5 at-bats today if scoring is what I think it will be. OF Mullins has been showing lots of power lately hitting his 6th HR already on Sunday and hits at the top of the lineup ensuring he will get plenty of at-bats. When you are doing your lineups target a couple of players that won’t be heavily owned to be different. Kyle Tucker who was slumping lately was not heavily owned (batting 6th in the lineup) and was the difference-maker in a lot of lineups that cashed on Sunday. If you took advantage of that good on you. Having guys lower in the order does not necessarily mean to fade them completely either. They often come up in key situations with men on base against a reliever towards the end of the game so target those teams that will be in that position and you will likely have that player in your lineup with a chance to come through for you. I also like as one-offs SS- Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,600) and OF Charlie Blackmon ($3,600). Tatis Jr. is well Tatis Jr. and all lineups are better with him in it and Blackmon is heating up after a slow start and you want to make sure you have him in your lineup when he has that 4-4 game with a HR that’s coming.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The forecast looks like it will be raining in Colorado for the game between the Rockies and Padres on Monday Night. Make sure you check updates to see what it looks like closer to game time and pivot from any Rockies/Padres players if so.
Doing Lines in Vegas
Under 7 runs +100 SF Giants vs. Texas Rangers is a play I like today. I’ve been talking up these starters enough I talked myself into this bet. I think it’s a 3-2 game when all said and done. Good luck today and the rest of the week!