Welcome back my fellow Razzies. We have a near-full slate on the docket tonight and we’re going to have to sift through the games to find the arms, stacks, and value we need to make this Tuesday our most profitable to date. It’s Wander Franco night in Tampa! Tune in to watch him crush his first MLB home run off Eduardo Rodriguez.
Last week we had almost no aces on the board and the pitcher who ended up winning tournaments for people is back in action tonight. It’s not Wheeler, Cole, Scherzer, Kershaw or Giolito. It’s the almighty bringer of rain; the golden god of the mound; you all know who I’m talking about… It’s Mr. CHRIS FLEXEN! That’s right, last Tuesday, Flexen fired 8 scoreless vs the Twins and racked up 56 FanDuel points on a full slate where he cost just $1,000 more than the most expensive hitter. Sadly, his price has gone up and now he’s $1,300 more than Vladdy, the priciest hitter. Seriously though, his matchup is great and you’ll see why down below.
On a 14 game slate like we have tonight, it’s going to be fairly easy to differentiate your lineups even if you choose to stack the chalky spots like the Astros vs Lopez. Houston was a part of many winning lineups last night and they were the extreme chalk on such a small slate. Tonight, they’ll be chalk again, but we have 27 other places to go for stacks as opposed to 11 last night.
Good luck tonight, and remember to stay positive and visualize that bankroll spiking like Bitcoin in April. Visualize your success! You HAVE to believe it to be true before it can happen. Go with your gut and do it with confidence. Let’s go!
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Starting Pitcher Targets
Zack Wheeler, SP: ($11,400) – One of the biggest mysteries for me was how Zack Wheeler didn’t strike guys out at even a league-average rate. I’ve always liked him and would draft him each year hoping the strikeouts would come. Welp. They’re here. Wheeler has been mesmerizing to this point in the season as his swinging strikes have gone up 3%, his contact percentage down 6%, and his K% up 8.3% from his career average. He’s had a quality outing each of his last 8 times out and has racked up 10 or more Ks in 4 of 8. When a guy is going this good, I’m not too concerned with the matchup. His ownership will be way down due to his price and the other options below him. I’m tempted to go with either pitcher from this game as long as Scherzer is good to go.
Freddy Peralta, SP: ($9,500) – Peralta has gone 7 or more innings in 3 of his last 4. One of those was at home vs these same DBacks, a game in which Peralta took a no-hit bid into the 8th with 9 Ks and came away with 56 FanDuel points. Peralta has been fantastic all season, generating top 10 swings and misses (14.8%) and limiting contact better than almost anyone in baseball. This play also has as much to do with the matchup as it does his dominance. The Diamondbacks are last in the league in slugging, OPS, weighted runs above average (wRAA), and weighted runs created (wRC) vs RHP. Basically, they’re the worst team in baseball vs righties. Peralta is $1,000 cheaper than Giolito, and $1,500+ cheaper than Wheeler and Cole. The price is too cheap regardless of ownership which should be high.
Dart Throw
Chris Flexen, SP: ($6,900) –
Line A: 41.2 innings, 2.16 ERA, .242 BA, .263 wOBA.
Line B: 26 innings, 7.27 ERA, .355 BA, .405 wOBA.
Line A is Chris Flexen at home and B is on the road. Now, the Ks are a problem overall, but over his last two outings vs DET and MIN, Flexen has 12 and 13 percent swinging strikes. That’s at and above league average. Here’s the kicker; Flexen gets the Rockies coming off a homestand in a pitcher-friendly environment. Away from home vs righties, the Rockies are dead last in runs above average (-45.1%), average, slugging, OPS, wRC, and wOBA. They also strike out at a 27.3% clip. They are downright terrible vs RHP away from Coors. If Flexen can continue missing bats at the rate he’s done the past 2 starts, he could be the best value amongst all players tonight.
First Base
Matt Olson, C/1B: ($4,000) – Olson crushes righties and lefties. He should see Hearn (lefty) his first time through and it seems Jordan Lyles will be the ‘long relief’ guy today. Either way, it’s a good spot and Olson is a monster who shouldn’t be too highly owned.
Jose Abreu, C/1B: ($3,200) – Historically crushes lefties and that hasn’t changed this season. Anderson gets hit hard by righties and Abreu’s 42.6% fly ball / 40.4% hard contact vs Lefties is a great look at how he approaches these at-bats. His price is low and his matchup is solid. The only negative is the park, but the Sox should score some runs.
Luke Voit, C/1B: ($2,500) – I know it’s AAA, but Voit looks healthy and has his confidence back. In 37 rehab ABs, Voit mashed 4 doubles and 5 bombs. He should be back in the lineup if everything goes to plan and at this price he could be a fantastic value.
Second Base
Jose Altuve, 2B: ($4,100) – In Baltimore vs Jorge Lopez.
Ian Happ, 2B (OF): ($2,700) – Should be back in the lineup vs a righty. He’s bound to start running into some homers. If nothing else, the Cubs should be a nice stack today.
Dylan Moore, 2B (OF): ($2,400) – He looked to have found his stroke prior to landing on the IL, and has seemed to have picked up where he left off since returning. Great matchup at a great price.
Third Base
Matt Chapman, 3B: ($3,000) – Turned things around in a big way since the start of June. I’m hoping the As go overlooked tonight in Texas.
Abraham Toro, 3B: ($2,100) – See Jose Altuve.
Short Stop
Fernando Tatis Jr., SS: ($4,500) – Don’t care about the matchup or the price. The dude is healthy which means he’ll probably do some stuff. .357 with 2 homers lifetime vs Kershaw. Also, the price/matchup should allow you to get him below 10%ish ownership.
Wander Franco, SS ($2,500) – Let’s see if the shiny new prospect can’t make his name known right out of the gate. Eduardo Rodriguez has been really bad and the hype is real. How sweet would a first AB bop be? Oh, man, I can feel it.
Outfield
Yordan Alvarez, OF: ($3,800) – See Altuve / Toro.
Joc Pederson, OF: ($3,300) – Gets a righty with the wind blowing out in Wrigley.
Mitch Haniger, OF: ($3,300) – Great matchup for Haniger and the Mariners. I don’t usually advise others to stack the Ms, but tonight… just sayin.
- Remember to differentiate your stacks with the Astros as they’ll be highly owned but don’t be afraid to fire them up with a lower owned stack like the Rangers or As. Or just make a bunch of them with all different parts of the lineup. I’d be astonished if they scored less than 6 runs.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Temps are down in most places relative to normal. There’s a slight chance of rain in Philadelphia and New York (Yankees & Mets both at home), but it doesn’t seem too worrisome at this point. We should be good to go as long as nothing changes. Check the radars in the Northeast leading up to game time.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Astros @ Orioles: o/u 9.5 – OVER
Indians @ Cubs: o/u 9 – OVER
Brewers @ DBacks: o/u 8 – UNDER
Dodgers @ Padres: o/u 7.5 – OVER
Favorite Stacks (Not Including Houston): Mariners, Cubs, A’s, Dodgers
