Hello again and welcome back to our 4th installment of DFS Sundays. Today we have a shizz-ton of games on the FanDuel slate. Which means we have a double shizz-ton of pitchers. Funny enough, there were more elite starting pitchers in yesterday’s Yankees vs. Indians (2) game then there are in 15 games today (none). With no pitcher over 10k we will have to spread the love. That also means ownership will be down and there probably wont be any one SP over 15% owned. I smell opportunity, or maybe that’s just me, I started showering at night instead of the morning recently. The list of probable starters is like a who’s who of 3rd starters and young guys trying to prove themselves. Luis Patino has his first start of the year for Tampa. Considering I have invested some money in his rookie cards, you’d think I have motivation to start him. Unfortunately, you can’t trust the Rays to let Blake Snell pitch 5 innings in the World Series during a dominate start, there is no way Patino is going to go deep. Well, no way we can bet on it at least. No worry, there are still many more intriguing options on todays slate. Since there are so many guys without there being any clear #1, I am going to give you a list of who I will be going with in my handful of GPP and cash game lineups.
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John Means, $8,400: (Cash & GPP) Means has looked great so far this year. With 23 Ks in 23 2/3 innings he is a good bet to rack up points. The A’s have won 13 in row so maybe you lay off. The problem there is so many games now are won in the last 3-4 innings off of the bullpen. Means can pitch a great game and the A’s can still continue their streak. Obviously, we don’t get the 3 points for a win but at Means’ price/skill I think its worth the risk.
Jake Arrieta, $8,200: (Cash only) I watched Arrieta start last week against the Mets, being the Mets fan that I am. Thank you for the condolences by the way. Jake looked great and his price has that baked in. His stuff was moving all over the place. He was getting swing and miss. Then his pitch count started to go up as the Mets took more pitches. The Mets are actually great on offense until its time to get, what are they called, oh yeah RBIs. I’m digressing hard though sorry, back to Jake. At his price against the team that strikeouts the most in baseball I think he is absolutely worth a cash game pivot. Fire him up in your head to heads, then diversify with other options I am giving you in 50/50s and double ups.
Taijuan Walker, $7,700: (GPP only) Walker has looked great in the first 3 innings in his 3 starts until he has struggled some later in games. One benefit to being a fan of the team is watching every pitch. I can tell you most of that regression later in games is bad defense and/or bad luck. Walker has looked very good. I won’t roster him thinking he is going to give us a deGrom’n type start but at his price point I will definitely have him in a good amount of GPP lineups (there are better options in his price range for cash games). The Nationals have been bad on offense and Taijuan is missing plenty of bats early in this year striking out 31% of batters faced while only allowing a .270 wOBA. I see a close 1 run type game that could be huge day for Walker if the Mets score 4 runs.
Dustin May or Joe Musgrove, $8,600/$10,500: This game is not in the Main Slate so use this info for the express, late slate or all day contests. It’s not a super scientific breakdown but I think its worth understanding if you aren’t producing your own algorithm backed projections. #narrativestreet* (GPP only) Most DFS pros will tell you narrative is bullshit to winning at DFS. Over the long haul I totally agree that it is. Yet, for one game I think narrative can be very important. A few of my biggest wins in DFS were made based on the game situation over the numbers. When Khwahi Leonard went back to San Antonio a few years back I had a feeling that he was going to press and the real top play was DeRozan. I was right and I won a couple low entry GPPs. At the time I was playing on Fantasy Draft because of the massive overlay so I didn’t become rich, which is my luck. Anyway to the pitchers in this game. So far the Padres vs Dodgers games have lived up to the billing. Tons of big moments, Tatis hitting home runs like his dad coming up with the bases loaded twice in the same inning. Depending on how you lean I can see one, if not both, of the talented starters having a season best type game. Which, for both, would amount to a ton of fantasy points. Fire up 1 of them in a single entry large field GPP or hedge by playing the same lineup twice with one pitcher then the other and see what happens. At the end of the day this is skill based gambling, but gambling nonetheless. *note to self, until they tell me to cut down on the word count imma keep pumping out that non-analytic high numbered novels ;)
I am going to give you one more. The guys at the top including Brandon Woodruff, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dylan Bundy and Danny Duffy are all intriguing. Each has either a great track record or is having a great start to the year, or both. At the price point though, with so many solid options, I think each one can be a fade. The Cubs may have figured out how to hit so Woodruff makes me nervous. While good pitching beats good hitting, hot steak hitting can beat the crap out of #2 type good pitching. Bundy had his first bad start last week and isn’t a sure thing by any stretch, plus that Astros offensive can score some runs. Ryu has looked not quite himself in the early year and Duffy is doing things this year that no one outside his wife and kids thought he could do. If I had to roster one guy at the top of the pricing food chain it would be Duffy. Mostly because his ownership will be the lowest of the 4 and he is facing the Tigers who strike out a lot and frankly speaking are not good at hitting baseballs, relatively speaking.
Let’s make a strong pivot from the top of the pitcher list (shout out to Nick Pollack) to the bottom. The biggest value, maybe in all of sports, is young unproven starting pitchers. If you can roster them in the game they stop shitting themselves and realize they are major leaguers it can set you up for a big day. There are a bunch today. We already discussed and passed on Patino (if you are playing 50+ lineups you could roster him in a couple on the off chance he dominates). I have a pretty big Triston McKenzie rookie card collection so obviously I’m high on him. I do not love the matchup though. The Yanks, even when they are struggling, take a ton of pitches which could get Triston out of the game early. Kopech is nasty and I’m a huge fan but I do not see him going deep at all, even with a fossil as his manager. That leads me to Jesus, all roads lead to Jesus GLORY TO GOD. Wait, wrong article. My WWJD.com one isn’t due until after church. I’m talking about Jesus Luzardo ($6,700). He finally put together a good start last time out with 6 Ks in 5.1 IP. His stuff is nasty, the A’s on winning like they are filming Moneyball part 2 and they are facing Baltimore. You want stats too? He has struck out 25% of batters faced even though he struggled in all but one start. A 3.44 SIERA compared to a 5.58 ERA shows he is a prime candidate for positive regression. Add in a perfectly manageable .13 HR/FB rate and I am rostering Luzardo over the other cheap options today.
Since we spent so much time talking about pitchers I am not going to get into hitters much. With so many games and not many shutdown type pitchers the plays on offense today are endless. Luck, and people playing 150 lineups, have the advantage on days like today. What I do is playing cash games and then a few single entry GPPs or some 3 max. That way it levels the playing field against some 20 year old that once hacked NASA and now has a program that will project players down to the barometric pressure at first pitch.
Will Crowe was just called up by the Pirates to pitch in todays game vs Minnesota. It’s safe to fire and forget 4 Twins in your lineup. I have seen recent data that shows the correlation between having guys 1-4 or 1, 3, 5, 7 isn’t as big as we all think. Meaning if the Twins have a big day it wont matter as much if we have the top 4 guys or any 4 guys. Obviously matchup, skill and price play huge factors but consecutive batters or only top 5 in the lineup guys isn’t as important as we think. I will share and get more into this data next week.
Finally the Red Sox have a .778 OPS vs lefties in this early season. Nick Margevicius is the lefty they will be facing. The Sox are playing great, are at home and are facing a subpar lefty… cha ching! Get as many Red Sox into your lineups as possible today along with one of the pitching options we talked about. Then send me some winnings via Paypal, my username…. my wife says its bad form to ask for money from my readers. ok shhh my PP is.. Good luck everyone. Let me know in the comments what you like and/or don’t. Do I talk too much with too little analysis? Should I give you more stats or is it just right? Help me help you be better at DFS. Cheers friends!
I’m Only Happy When it Rains
Shocking news! The Mets will probably be rained out again. This is getting ridiculous now with a 1/3 of their games postponed. The Giants game also has a good chance of a stoppage and/or postponement. I’ve also learned a valuable lesson just now. Do not tout a team or player without first checking the weather report. Its looks like the Red Sox game has very little chance of being played today. Since the only people wrong more then me are weather “people” I’ll leave up the info about Sox hitters. Just keep an eye on the report before lock. One risky but good way to gain an edge is to roster guys in games that look like they will be canceled. If they are not you get yourself a very healthy edge.
Doing Lines in Vegas
