Groove with me, won’t you? Admittedly I’m not much of a dancer. I can Macarena with the best of them but that’s about it. In fact, if a song is in 4/4 time, that’s my go to dance move outside of the towel off. Never heard of the towel off? Well, grab a towel and pretend like you’re drying off but to the beat. Grab it and swipe it back and forth against the back of your neck. Good, now down to your shoulders. Alright, now down to your butt. The crescendo? Between the legs swipe! Now start from the top and repeat. Once you have that down, feel free to throw in a little variety. Maybe a ’tilt your head to the side and one hand shake dry your hair’ if you’re feeling frisky. You’ve got it! Now don’t forget who brought this dance craze to you cuz I don’t wanna have to sue you! Yeah, I patented that shizz, wouldn’t you? But enough about my sweet dance moves, lets talk some Jesse Chavez. Baltimore is a team that Ks no matter who they’re facing or where they’re at. That said, away from Camden Yards, their whiffiness takes a bit of a leap as it sits at 23.8% entering Sunday’s contests, placing them third worst road K% right behind the Rockies (24%) and Cubs (23.9%). Notice those numbers? They’re basically tied for first here, y’all, and I plan to take advantage of it with Jesse and his splits. Chavez enjoys the cavernous confines of O.Co just fine, thank you, doling out a 2.33 ERA to go with a drop in BB/9 by nearly one from his road starts. It’s all interpretation, but methinks he is willing to challenge hitters at home more because of the size of the stadium. This is one of those starts that could yield you 8 to 10 Ks and minimal damage. For the miniscule price of $6,800, you are gonna be hard pressed to find a better deal. So come out on a the dance floor and cha cha Chavez with me, won’t you? But enough rug cutting, let’s have at it. Here’s my Flamenco hot takes for this Monday DK slate…
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Garrett Richards, SP: $9,800 – I’m absolutely fine with Liriano today at home vs a Cubs team that may be without Kris Bryant but I figure I’d take this time to point out Richards averages more than double DK points at home vs on the road so far this year. Look, Lonnie Chisenhall has been batting leadoff for Cleveland. I think analysis kinda can stop there, don’t you?
Felix Hernandez, SP: $9,500 – The King is in Colorado, can’t start him like OH EM GEE. Days where you can get low ownership on a stud pitcher because of the good hitter’s environment are days I like. I will be rolling Felix and Jesse in a few tourney LUs today, that I can bet on…which I am…cuz like we’re all kinda betting here, ya know?
Wily Peralta, SP: $5,800 – The gambliest of gambles. Peralta is still getting himself together as he comes back from an early season injury but he gets to face a right-hand heavy lineup which his wOBA from last year suggests he can dominate. You’re hoping the Padres’ 5th worst K% against RHP shines through here but I wouldn’t overuse the Wily P.
Jason Castro, C: $3,200 – Colby Lewis vs a lefty? OK! Houston is probably going to load up on lefty bats today and for good reason. Colby borders on elite vs righties but is BP for lefties. An Astros stack is in full swing for me. Gimme some Luis Valbuena, Preston Tucker, and Colby Rasmus…and make it snappy!
Mike Zunino, C: $2,900 – If you can’t tell, I ain’t paying up for catcher today. Zunino has turned it around a little of late…I mean, he’s still hitting .181 but that’s an improvement for him and so is the park bump (Coors) and the opposing pitcher (Eddie Butler). As if you didn’t already know, stack your Mariners. Nelson Cruz, Brad Miller, Kyle Seager, Logan Morrison…the list goes on!
Jose Abreu, 1B: $5,400 – The White Sox have been one of the hottest offenses in baseball of late and a lot of that can be put on the shoulders of…Melky Cabrera but I’m out here suggesting Jose because Karns is allowed 1.64 HR/9 to right handers on the year and also has a poor K/9 rate vs them on the year. You say you don’t believe in reverse splits, I say I believe in power hitters taking advantage of stats like this. Grande Dolor is gonna HR, people.
Albert Pujols, 1B: $3,900 – Speaking of reverse splits…Pujols has hit 25 of his 30 HRs this year vs righties. If you’re looking for a cheaper HR shot, taking advantage of the Corey Kluber discount would be smart of ya.
Logan Forsythe, 1B/2B: $3,600 – He didn’t do what I expected Friday but I’m going back to the well: Logan against a lefty feels so right, especially at this price.
Yangervis Solarte, 1B/2B: $3,000 – As I mentioned, Wily is a scary proposition and my exposure will be limited for reasons like this. Miller Park is the 5th best park for lefties and so far this year has seemingly played even kinder. Solarte at this price and with the park bump borders on a punt. It’s hard to go wrong either way here.
Evan Longoria, 3B: $3,700 – It’s true that Longo hasn’t been the Longo we’ve known from before. He’s Trevor Plouffe, basically, which if you drafted him in season longs is frustrating but for us? DON’T CARE. Quintana has pitched well of late but a mini-Rays stack makes sense if you go Longo and Forsythe.
Jung-Ho Kang, 3B/SS: $3,400 – Kang has been raking of late and gets the platoon advantage vs Lester. Heck, he could hit a single and swipe a base with Lester’s yips. I’m not overly in love with Lester on the day but I also don’t plan on going in full attack mode. Overall, getting some Pirates speed into your LU if you can afford it isn’t crazy. I get what you’re thinking if you look Starling Marte or Andrew McCutchen’s way.
Miguel Rojas, 3B/SS: $2,000 – Total punt play if he’s in. Bartolo Colon has begun to pitch like he’s 40+ and overweight which means he’s pitching softball to a buncha major leaguers. I know, I know, calling Marlins major leaguers is a stretch but Miami could easily be the sneaky stack on the day. At the very least, I’d consider Dee Gordon and Christian Yelich.
Dexter Fowler, OF: $4,200 – Dexter hits nearly .300 against southpaws for his career and has the potential to stuff all categories all while batting leadoff. Sign me up.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Of course the one place we want our pitching from today has a weather problem…of course. PITvsCHC is looking dangerous for pitchers as of right now with 50% chance of showers hanging over the games head and into the night. Outside that, it’s looks to be smooth sailing.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Oh those trendlines be movin. CHWvsTB has seen a full run shaved off its initial open and has been relegated to a borderline pick’em with the White Sox only a -121 favorite at home with a 7.5 O/U. My picks up above could be underowned if this is how the world sees the game. Overall, there aren’t many heavy favorites on the night slate minus Seattle at -170 but as the game has a 9.5 O/U, I can understand why we are hesitant going with the King. It looks like they expect a pitcher’s duel out in Los Angeles as LAAvsCLE has a 6.5 O/U and Richards sitting at a mere -118 favorite. I still stand by Richards but could see some shares of Kluber sneak in along the way. Meanwhile, MILvsSD has seen a .5 increase in the runline up to 8. Wasn’t on Ross before, definitely not seeing a reason now. We also see a drop in TEXvsHOU from 9.5 to 9 but that is the second highest run line of the day behind Coors so expose yourself here (but not in that way) or you might be sad come evening.
