Remember when Shane Greene was a thing? Those were the days, spring had just sprung and there was so much hope, so much optimism. Your team ERA was so pretty then. You had a shiny new toy fresh from the free agent pool and after his second of two 8 IP, 0 ER gems, you were feeling like the smartest guy your league. Then, April 24th happened. 4 IP, 8 ER vs. the lefty-heavy Indians lineup. Still you believed and then, 4.1 IP, 7 ER. You were wounded, beaten, bloodied and you team ERA was approaching the double digit mark. If this sounds familiar, it’s OK, we’ve all been there. Now is the time to act and seek a little revenge against the one who hurt you. It became apparent fairly early that Greene had some trouble with southpaws. In fact, his season splits read like a hall of famer to be, lefties are slashing .349/.401/.592. There are a handful of pitchers I adore stacking against and when Greene was optioned to AAA, I was sad to lose one of the best. Aaron Harang and Bud Norris can only do so much here. Greene is back now, though, and in his first start back in the majors proceeded to go 4.2 IP and give up 7 ERs. There’s the Shane we know and love. I really can’t dream up a more nightmarish match-up for Shane besides maybe the Yankees in the house that Jeter built. Seattle can go lefty-heavy with the best of ‘em and I could easily see another 3 IP, 8 ER outing here. There’s not a Seattle lefty I won’t be trying to squeeze into my lineup tonight and I’ll mention one or two below so you don’t forget. Just remember, left on Greene and you’ll be on the road to sweet redemption.
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Chris Heston, SP: $8,200 – DeGrom, Cole and Salazar are your big three tonight, but we’re going to dig a little bit deeper. Heston is a total bore, but makes a nice play for a “safe” cash game lineup. The reason he’s so boring is a complete lack of Ks. A 7.2 K-rate makes me start to nod off a bit. There is reason for hope, though. The Petco factor is obviously a big one, but also the Padres are third in the league in strikeouts. If you’re paying up for some bats and can’t afford two aces, the $1,700 discount to Heston isn’t bad at all.
Vincent Velasquez, SP: $6,400 – VV burned me bad the last time I recommended him, but I’m willing to double down on the kid. The Red Sox look completely lost right now and their lone All-Star, Brock Holt, which I can hardly say with a straight face, can’t even find consistent playing time. Napoli has turned into what we always knew he eventually would, Ortiz is playing the part of disgruntled diva and he and the other two amigos look to all but have stopped trying. The Halos just beat any last will they had to live out of them and the whole team could be liquidated sooner than later. That sounds like a squad that’s prime for the picking to me and Velasquez should be happy to pick away at what’s left of this garbage baseball team. Deploy and enjoy.
Aaron Nola, SP: $5,300 – It’s the night of the call-up tonight with two starters making their MLB debuts and 2 others fresh out of AAA, returning to the bigs. Nola is one debuting and draws the Rays at home. The Razzball crew has already covered Nola a bit, with Grey giving you his thoughts here and Maikel…I mean Mike, giving his completely unbiased thoughts here recently. If that’s not enough info, the SON likes Nola the best of all the young guns going tonight. If that’s not enough, well, I’d watch your back for flying toaster ovens because the SON doesn’t take kindly to haters.
Joe Ross, SP: $5,000 – Little Ross is actually my favorite of the youngins tonight. That has more to do with his opponent than anything though as Ross gets to face the Mets. The Mets are currently the owners of the second worst team OPS in all of baseball and look unable to hit their way out of a wet paper bag. Man, this team needs some offense in a bad way. I wouldn’t go expecting another 11 K performance, but for five grand and that kind of upside, I don’t see the harm in rostering Joe. In fact, it would be a lot of fun to roster two of the kids tonight for a combined $10,300 and see what kind of offense you could build. I could think of worse ideas.
Wilin Rosario, C/1B: $3,000 – I’ve only been picking on Rangers pitching all season long and now that pitching comes to Coors field. Boy oh boy, what a hit-fest this could be. Rosario even gets the ol’ “Walt Weiss never plays him” discount to 3K. Wilin, at home, facing a bad lefty, there’s only thing left to do. “Please don’t be dumb Walt, please don’t be dumb Walt, please don’t be dumb Walt”. If you need me, I’ll be over here repeating this until lineups are released.
Billy Butler, 1B: $3,800 – Fielder and Moreland are your “no dur” plays at first tonight, but there’s a couple other fellas that could have nice outings including big Billy Butler. Butler is your BvP play of the evening as he gets soft-tossing Mark Buehrle tonight. Billy actually has a somewhat significant sample size vs. Buehrle and has a lot to show for it. Career he is 22/67 with 3 HRs off the enigma that is Buehrle. Buehrle hasn’t given up more than 2 ERs since May. I don’t comprehend how this is possible and feel like an implosion is looming.
Logan Morrison, 1B/OF: $3,400 – I mentioned those lefty Seattle bats in my opening and here’s one to not forget.
Jose Altuve, 2B: $4,500 – I enjoy a discounted Altuve quite a bit. I enjoy it even more when he’s facing a kid making his MLB debut, on the road who has admitted already he’ll be nervous. I like Brian Johnson long term, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he got a bit roughed up tonight.
Rougned Odor, 2B: $4,000 – Odor will be my main man at the keystone tonight. The Rangers have been batting him second and he’s been making them look smart, hitting .333 in July. It’s hard to remember Odor is only 21, but he looks to be finding his groove and should be grooving at Coors in a big way.
Chris Davis, 1B/3B: $3,800 – Davis gets Eovaldi who, despite throwing 100 MPH, has been tossing BP this year. His FIP is a full run under his ERA (it was last year too) however, at some point you have to stop giving up 11 hits per 9. I like Davis to be part of that total tonight with a couple hits of his own and in Yankee stadium, the likelihood of one of those finding it’s way over the fence is high.
Jung Ho Kang, 3B/SS: $3,400 – I hate seeing guys get hurt, but there’s always a silver lining. When Carlos Gomez tried to put Jordy Mercer’s knee on backwards Kang got an immediate bump in value. I’ve felt like all season he needed consistent playing time and the rest would follow. We’re still yet to see a power surge from Kang but I think some regular ABs could remedy that. Jason Vargas could be the start of that run of power that we’ve been waiting for all season.
Brad Miller, SS: $3,300 – Another lefty Mariner, typically batting leadoff vs. RHP that I didn’t want you to forget.
Leonys Martin, OF: $3,400 – Speaking of lefties not to be forgotten, Leonys provides some cheap Coors exposure tonight, which we always are on the lookout for. The only rub is that Martin might be batting towards the bottom of the order, but if you’re stacking up some Rangers, that’s not a deal breaker.
Chris Young, OF: $2,900 – Young is a nice power upside punt play in the OF most nights he has the platoon advantage. Tonight is one of those nights as he gets to face Wei-Yin Chen at home. I’d go as far as to say you won’t find another sub $3,000 outfielder not named Drew Stubbs that has a higher probability for a HR tonight.
Seth Smith, OF: $3,300 – I have to end the column with one final reminder, get those lefties in there to tee off on Shane Greene.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
What’s a day without rain in the forecast? Perfect I say. Dare I say things look pretty good out there today. There’s a chance for a storm system in Washington DC to get pushed back into game territory but other than that and the constant threat of sprinkles in Denver, we’re looking good.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The best line of the night is in the TEX/COL game where we have an 11 o/u and a pick’em. Vegas is throwing their hands up and saying a boat load of runs will be scored and who knows who will score more, I love that. Besides Coors, the Seattle/Detroit game has the next highest o/u with 9 runs. I’d guess 8 of those are tagged onto Shane Greene’s line. Mets/Nationals and Giants/Padres both come in on the low end of the run scoring with 7 run o/u in those games. The biggest favorite on the night is none other than Matt Shoemaker facing off against the Twins at home. The Angels are a -155 favorite there. Do with that what you will.
