Don’t you just love when baseball fate takes over? Or maybe it’s just the expanded rosters in September. Either way, we’re getting a glimpse of the New Kids On The Block. Jose De Leon is the one we’ve been waiting on – at least as far as pitchers are concerned. He’s got “The Right Stuff.” I mean, come on Jose…..”Baby I believe in you.” If you’ve had a chance to watch him in action this season in Triple A, you know he’s been “Hangin’ Tough.” Okay….that’s enough of the song titles. I mean…I wouldn’t want to waste what’s left of your “Summertime.” I’m done. I promise. Anyway, Jose has a very soft landing spot for his major league debut. He’ll face the Padres in a home tilt where the Dodgers are heavy favorites and for good reason. San Diego owns a 25% strikeout rate, which is second worst in baseball and they’re the proud owners of an 87 wRC+ which qualifies for third worst in the league. If that’s not bad enough, their OBP is a paltry .300 and they’re slugging .395. So what I’m trying to say is……this is a very favorable start. De Leon has produced a 33% strikeout rate in 86 innings (111 Ks) at Triple-A Oklahoma City this year, while registering a 2.61 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 2.71 FIP. More good news! His price tag today is a very reasonable $7,700 – that’s an insane value. Sounds good right? I thought so. Thank me later internet friends.
Here’s a look at the rest of my picks for Sunday’s slate:
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Chris Archer, SP $9,900: I feel like this is a trap. I mean the price is just too good to ignore, but he’s facing the Blue Jays. However, he allowed three or fewer runs in five of his six August starts so perhaps he’ll continue that trend. Toronto has also managed to run up a 23% strikeout rate vs RHP and they own a pedestrian .317 OBP over the last over the last 7 days.
Yu Darvish, SP $11,800: He’s the most expensive pitcher on the board today and for good reason: The Astros are striking out at a 23.5% clip, which ranks as 4th worst in baseball. Darvish has a safe floor today and is a good bet to tally at least 7-8 Ks.
Danny Salazar, SP $9,000: Fresh of the paternity list, Salazar will face a Marlins bunch tied for 23rd in MLB with a .400 slugging percentage. His value is purely the strikeout potential – he’s racked up 146 Ks in 127 2/3 innings. His 27% strikeout rate ranks 11th among starters with at least 120 innings this year.
Wellington Castillo, C $3,900: A hitter in Coors under $4K? We’ll take it! Over his last 7 games Castillo has hit .310 with a stout .382 OBP. Jon Gray has allowed 8 HR at Coors this year (7 to right-handers) along with a 4.66 ERA.
Chris Davis, 1B $4,400: As far as match ups go, they don’t get much better than this. Davis owns a .355 wOBA, .276 ISO and he’s launched 26 of his 33 home runs against right-handers this season. Considering Michael Pineda has allowed a ridiculous .384 wOBA to lefties this year and Davis’ owns a career .874 OPS against him – this is a sneaky play this afternoon.
Jason Kipnis, 2B $4,900: Over the last 7 days Kipnis has been hotter than Anthony Weiner on Twitter. He’s slashing .280/.424/.520 and he’s averaged 10.16 DK points per contest. He’ll face Tom Koehler who’s allowed 8 HR and a .270 BA to lefties this year.
JJ Hardy, SS $2,700: We’re going with a value play here and he carries some serious BvP appeal. Hardy is 9-of-18 with 3 HR and a 1.526 OPS in his career vs Michael Pineda. Pineda has had his share of trouble with right-handers as well, giving up 14 of his 22 HR and a .270 average this year.
Todd Frazier, 3B $4,900: He’s delivered multi-hit games in five of his last nine starts and he’s blasted 3HR in his last five games alone. Lefty Andrew Albers will take the hill for Minnesota and he’s allowing an absurd .548 wOBA to righties over 10 1/3 innings of big league action this year.
Carlos Gonzalez, OF $5,000: Archie Bradley gets the nod today in Coors and he’s been miserable against lefties this year, allowing a .408 wOBA, .322 BA and a 22.25 HR/FB rate. Fittingly enough, Gonzalez has demolished right-handers at Coors this season producing a .441 wOBA and .315 ISO.
AJ Pollock, OF $3,600: Usually I’m not the type to shove Coors Field in your face, but this is a ridiculous price for a hot bat. Over his last 7 games, Pollock has produced a .321/.406/.429 slash line with a home run and four stolen bases. Since the start of 2015, Pollock is batting .314 with a .865 OPS vs RHP.
Billy Hamilton, OF $3,500: Hamilton has been running himself right into our DFS hearts lately. Over his last 30 games, Hamilton has swiped 23 bags and reached base at a .380 clip. Again, at this price you can take the plunge and get into the Coors action with your savings.
Mike Trout, OF $5,500: Here’s the big fish (See what I did there?) we’ve been waiting for. Trout is obviously always at the top of every list, but over the last week he’s been otherworldly. In his last 7 games he’s 11-for-22 with 3 HR, a .607 OBP and an eye-popping 1.743 OPS.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The radar is clear and we’re good to go. As the extremely talented Leon Bridges would say – we have Smooth Sailin‘ for Sunday’s slate.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Danny Salazar (-215) and Jose De Leon (-210) are the biggest favorites on the board today and surprisingly Jon Gray (-175) is next on the list. I’m not one to go against the sharks very often, but I have no faith in Jon Gray. Proceed at your own risk my friends. If you’re looking for the highest run totals to build your line up, you might consider: ARI/COL 12, CHW/MIN 10.5, NYY/BAL 9 and HOU/TEX 9.
