Well that’s a new one. No player. Nope. Not giving you a pitcher. Ok, I kinda am. Sale is da bomb dot gov. But you don’t need me to tell you that. Unless, of course, you haven’t paid attention to this sport we call baseball for the last three years, then maybe you need my insight on the guy that coulda been AL Cy Young if it weren’t for a DL stint. And heck, I’m not even giving you a specific hitter. I’m talking fat stacks…or phat stacks if I were Chris Tucker and it was 1997. Remember when he was funny? Yeah, I don’t either…anywho, this was a theory discussed with a good friend who’s into the DFS game and who had a great take on the psychology of a baseball game. So when you’re the pitcher opposing a certified ace and aren’t really ‘on your game’, you’re gonna get like your GF’s panties get during that certain time of the month: spotty. And when you get spotty, you get dicey. And when you get you know what, I just can’t do the Direct TV commercial. It’s been done to death. The key thing here is recognizing that the other team and their opposing pitcher can get a bit intimidated going up against an arm like Sale. These types of feelings are hard to get around. An error here, a booted double play there…the big thing is, Baltimore and Bud Norris are in a bad spot for today and I plan on taking advantage. And speaking of Bud…gross. That’s both about the beer and the pitcher splits. Norris isn’t great at all at this point but away from Baltimore, he has a 4.55 ERA and a near doubled HR/9 rate at 1.28 away from the ‘friendly confines’ of Camden Yards. In particular, lefties have given him the most trouble with 6 HRs in 33.1 IP and a .354 wOBA. So if you’re against a huge stack, keep in mind Adam Dunn, Alejandro De Aza, and Conor Gillaspie when you’re building your rosters for the day.
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Vance Worley, SP: $7,200 – For a short docket day, I’m pleasantly surprised to see Worley this far down the rabbit hole. The Braves have been a bad hitting team however you wanna slice it. They’re 0.2% off from being tied for the worst K% in the major leagues at 29% over the last 7 days. And even though their RC+ and wOBA are middle of the road over that same time, don’t think that makes them a good get. When Worley gets a matchup he can dominate, he has shown he can take full advantage; he has a 27.6 point game against the Padres and a 32.3 pointer against the Giants in his last 4 starts. And don’t forget about those sweet hipster baseball glasses. They should be worth 5 DK points alone at this point.
Jerome Williams, SP: $5,300 – I’ll let Sterling Archer handle this one. You better call Kenny Loggins, Jerome, cuz you’re in the…DAINGA ZONE. Mariners have been a hot group of late, ranking in the top 5 in team wOBA and Jerome is Americanese for ‘Pinata’ in baseball terms. Seriously, I can’t even quote you a good split, they’re all horrible. Needless to say, if you think my White Sox call is a bit crusty – and the ones behind my teenage bed were so you’re not that far off – take heart in the fact you could have a Mariners stack that’s just as mentally off-putting as the image I put in your head between the dashes.
Justin Masterson, SP: $5,800 – He’s hard to believe in, I’ll give you that. He ripped my heart out through my arsehole Country Song Style when I started him last time around. It’s hard to predict when a team trending badly will turn it around. Baltimore picked the wrong day…all that aside, the Reds as a team just aren’t offensively intimidating and they’ll be coming off the Rocky Mountain High back into a pitcher’s park. I think Masterson can match last week’s 24 point outing with reasonable ease and should be a great GPP play for today.
Trevor May, SP: $5,000 – I was gonna drop a Lorde/Royals lyrical ditty here but thought, nah, it’s been done to death. What I will say is Trevor might have to change his last name to Mayday after today’s outing. The Royals got to Milone yesterday and finished with 12 total earned. They are terrible against lefties. What will they do to the worst pitcher on the mound by salary standards, you ask? I’m scared to find out. Take your hot-hitting KC bats, namely Norichika Aoki, Josh Willingham, and Alex Gordon here if you’re intrigued. And before you ask, no Vargas and his home/road splits don’t get a pass either. Kurt Suzuki is my catcher crush for the day.
Ervin Santana, SP: $10, 000 – The Pirates are one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors right now with the 3rd best team wOBA and the highest ISO of any team over the last 7 games. Ervin is priced as the second best pitcher behind Sale on the day. These two things combined make Santana an easy fade target for me, especially in cash games. You don’t need this kind of danger on your roster, especially when you think you’re playing it safe.
Jon Jay, OF: $3,600 – Smoking Jay is what they’ve been calling him. I don’t know who ‘they’ are specifically, but when you rock a .631 wOBA over 7 days, you’re gonna get my attention, especially when you’re priced right and facing a struggling pitcher in Leake. He probably doesn’t dong but he doesn’t need to for you to cash on his price as he’s averaging 10 DK points per game over his last 10 and Leake just can’t get lefties out on the home or on the road as he sports a .362 wOBA against southies for the year. Consider this a Matt Adams, Matt Carpenter, and Kolten Wong tramp stamp of approval.
Ian Desmond, SS: $4,500 – Definitely not the cheapest option on the board but the Nationals are going through an offensive surge and Desmond is a big reason why, rocking a .300 ISO and a .516 wOBA over his last 7 while averaging 10.5 DK PPG over his last 10. Given that he also has a .357 wOBA against LHP on the year and Nuno is on the mound, I’d like to take those last 10 games and Spinal Tap them: let’s go to 11, friends.
Yoenis Cespedes, OF: $5,000 – At first I thought it was a gut call. Then I wandered over to the DFSBot and saw it was just a good call. Great minds think alike, I guess. Even if one mind is full of bad music and movie references and the other mind is actually just a cyborg.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Weather might just turn this into a 5 game slate tonight. Mother Nature gonna Mother, I guess, but there are threats of tinklage in the PITvsATL, CWSvsBAL, and MINvsKC games. Considering most of my analysis was based on these games, I’m questioning my will to live right now. Ok, that was overly dramatic. But I am questioning my will to even build a team which if you’re a junkie like me does equate to life or death sometimes.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The men and women of Vegas are putting the big game as BOSvsLAA and for the most part I can dig it and have no qualms. But CHWvsBAL at only 7? Puh-lease. I think the Sox score 8 themselves and don’t think Sale shuts the Orioles out entirely; and let’s not forget the shaky pen behind him. Give me the ‘o’ face for that game.