There’s a lot of hate towards qualifiers out there. I get it, you feel like the odds are long when you have to spike two rosters to make it count. I also get the sentiment that people feel like they get raked twice when they play qualifiers. If you can win a qualifier however, and you do spike that second lineup, that my friends is bankroll changing. I’m not saying to stop playing you regular tournaments or anything, I’m just trying to make sure you aren’t ignoring what could be a great opportunity to drastically increase your fun money. I’ll lay it out for you using one of DraftKings upcoming featured contests, the Slugfest. This contest is a $33 buy-in, $300K total prize pool event with 10,300 total entrants. Buying straight into that bad boy might be a little out of your price range, and that’s fine. Perhaps the Moonshot tournament is more your style, at $3 buy-in and 30,600 entrants. You may want to consider passing on the Moonshot one or two nights and maybe playing a $3 Slugfest qualifier instead. These qualifiers are 758 entrants with the top 60 earning a spot in the Slugfest. Roughly 8% of entrants will win here. Low odds you say, and you’re right. If we compare these odds to the Moonshot odds however, you’ll see it’s not that bad. In order to win enough in the Moonshot to pay for your buy-in to the Slugfest you’d have to finish 130th or better (winning $40). Your odds there my good friend are a mere 0.4%. Them’s bad odds right thur. If you have a lineup that can get you in the top 8% on the night of the qualifier and then just min cash in the Slugfest (a top 20.1% lineup will get you there), you’d walk away with a cool $65. If you’d like to turn your $3 Moonshot into that kind of cash, you’d have to place in the top 60, in other words a top 0.2% lineup. The other great thing about these qualifiers is, since they have such a bad rap, there is often overlay. Overlay is your friend. Look for it, embrace it, play it often to great success. Look, I’m not saying playing these things is going to allow you to quit your job or anything, I just want you to be aware of them. Don’t let a good thing slip by just because you heard it was bad, try it for yourself and see what you think. Now, let’s cover some plays that might help you win yourself a ticket tonight.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
But wait, there’s more! Sticking with the program here, last Tuesday’s Razzball Friend’s and Family DraftKings contest was none other than your humble author. I feel a little awkward shouting myself out, but hey, at least you know the guy handing out advice isn’t finishing 23rd out of 25 every night, so there’s that. Now, back to regular scheduled programming.
Stephen Strasburg, SP: $10,200 – Today’s slate of pitchers is a real test of intestinal fortitude. Do you have the stomach to handle another WHIP-lashing from Stras? Are you going back to that well? I’m not scared. Strasburg has been getting terribly unlucky and has a full 2 point difference between his ERA and FIP at the moment. It’s still early. The K rate and walk rate are in line with career norms, it’s really just the hits that are out of whack. It seems like with Strasburg’s luck so far, I could get up there, put some bat on the ball and it would find a hole. I’m not going to bet on that over time though.
Zack Greinke, SP: $9,800 – Oh, gee whiz, I should play the top two SPs of the day you say? I told you, it’s not pretty out there today. This is the classic, “Don’t Overthink It” cash game ticket. There will be plenty of room to get cute with your tournament entries, but Greinke vs. the Brewers, who can’t hit the broadside of a barn right now, is hard to pass up.
Rick Porcello, SP: $6,600 – I’ve been readily giving Sawx brass and fans the business about the whole “Five Aces” thing. This pitching rotation is garbage. If anyone has a shot at putting lipstick on this pig and actually looking the part of an ace, it’s going to be Porcello. Rick got whammied by Baltimore and that awful outing is really making his numbers look bad and is driving his price down. I’m buying at this price tag. He’s coming off a great outing vs. the Blue Jays where he went 7 and struck out 6. Tampa Bay isn’t exactly a terrifying offense, in fact, they have the 6th worst OPS vs. RHP so far. Again, these are price plays, we’re not looking for miracles here, just hoping they don’t go ka-blooey.
James Paxton, SP: $7,000 – Paxton was a big target of mine going into this season and I got him hardly anywhere. Everyone was on this guy. After his mass exodus of ownership, he’s been a streaming option of late and is now relegated to the realm of “punt play” here in the world of DFS. These are the types of punt plays I look for, those with big upside. It’s early still and the 2.2 IP, 7 ER debacle vs. Texas looms large in Pax’s overall numbers. He’s got back to back 7 K games and despite only giving up 2 and 1 ER in those two starts, he was actually unlucky in both. Bloop singles, bad defense and all around bad luck contributed to those runs and hits. I’m not scared of the Angels lineup outside of Mike Trout. Kole Calhoun is good and all, but him batting clean-up is laughable. Purchase, save, and enjoy.
Nick Hundley, C: $3,800 – Hopefully the rains move out of Denver and we can get a game in at Coors tonight. If it plays, we’re always looking for as much cheap exposure to the thin air as we can handle. I’m not sure yet who will be pitching, but I’d have to guess it’ll be Collmenter. Hundley has some tasty numbers vs. Josh, 6/14 with a tater.
Evan Gattis, 1B/C: $4,600 – Feeling spendy? Texas pitching is in town and you know I love getting in on that action. Tonight brings Wandy Rodriguez to the bump, he of the 4.82 ERA. The Wandy man can’t and just like yesterday, the Astros stack is all systems go.
Adam LaRoche, 1B: $4,200 – Provided Adam is over his case of the stomach flu he’ll get a starter in Shane Greene that’s giving his owners a case of projectile vomit of late. Shane has been not so super and lefties are having their way with him. LHB are hitting at a hall of fame worthy .314 clip off Greene. That and the calendar turning to May are just the thing to bust LaRoche out his early season slump.
Lucas Duda, 1B: $4,000 – Cheaper still is the Duda who gets to tee off on one of my favorite punching bags, Bud Norris. Bud has looked even worse than Bud Light, maybe like one of those awful sounding Straw-Ber-Rita things. Either way, I’d love to throw a Mets stack out there and see where it takes me.
Neil Walker, 2B/3B: $3,800 – Walker is a guy I always like to check the price on when he’s facing a righty. Neil can be somewhat of a forgotten man at times. Probably because he’s boring as all get out. He’s about as near a lock for 15 HRs and a .270 average as you can get though. The odds are a bulk of those 15 HRs are coming off RHP. Of all qualified 2B last season, only Robinson Cano had a higher wOBA vs righties. For $3,800, he checks all the boxes tonight.
Yangervis Solarte, 2B/3B: $2,900 – Players like this open up so many options for the rest of your roster, it should hardly take any convincing to insert them. Solarte has all been taken over second base duties in a Whale’s Vagina and has been hitting either 2nd or 5th in what is a stacked lineup. Oh, and he’s been red hot, and he’s basically free. Plug and play.
Nolan Arenado, 3B: $4,800 – For yet another week, there’s not a ton to love at the hot corner. I’ll take Coors exposure all day though. If Robbie Ray ends up starting this game instead of Collmenter, Arenado becomes an absolute “must play” for me. Even with the R/R match-up with Collmenter, I’m still game.
Kris Bryant, 3B: $4,300 – Who has May 5th in the Bryant HR pool? It’s going to happen soon and I want to be there when it does.
Addison Russell, SS: $3,600 – As usual, I’m looking cheap at SS. In an ideal world, Russell would be hitting higher in the order, but when you start looking cheap, you don’t get ideal. Russell has hit in 7 straight games with a HR mixed in there. Definitely worth a shot at his price.
Stephen Drew, SS: $3,400 – My old, cheap SS standby. Drew draws Marco Estrada in TOR and yesterday was bumped up to the 5 hole. Yes please, thank you.
Joc Pederson, OF: $4,300 – I’m not sure there’s a hotter hitter right now and his price hasn’t caught up to his torrid 7 game stretch. That string of games has featured 5 HRs and a bump up to the leadoff spot. What a great success for Joc, despite Mattingly’s best efforts to thwart his value, he has overcome. Tonight he gets Matt Garza in Milwaukee and I’m all over that.
Matt Kemp, OF: $4,400 – BvP special of the evening (besides Stanton, who I hope Strasburg has the sense to unintentionally intentionally walk every AB). Kemp is 12/32 with a HR off Ryan Vogelsong. Vogelsong is always fun to pick on, so go nuts.
Odubel Herrera, 2B/OF: $3,100 – Now for a couple of cheap plays. These types are crucial if trying to employ the Coors stack, which is always fun. There’s no reason Herrera should be this cheap. He’s not sneaking up on anyone at this point, he’s been here all year and has been hitting like a pro. Well, he is a pro, so I would hope so. Shelby Miller has been getting by on pixie dust and unicorn blood, or some sort of black magic. He’s due to implode any second and if tonight is the night then the $3,100, professional hitter, hitting second in the order will more than recoup his price.
Billy Burns, OF: $2,700 – As the manager of an RCL team that is hard up for steals, I grabbed Sam Fuld about a week ago before Oakland was set to face approximately 30 RHP in a row. Over the span he was on my team he went 0/3 and then chipped in three straight 0/4s. Things haven’t gotten any better and it appears he’s played himself right out of the lead spot. Good riddance I say and I’ve happily welcomed Billy Burns with open arms. Burns has gone 2 for 5, 1 for 4 and 2 for 5 so far with no steals. Someone this fast won’t stay dormant long. Steals are coming and they may come in bunches. If Solarte is free, DraftKings is practically paying YOU to roster Burns. How can you turn that down?
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s plenty of weather to keep an eye on today. MIA @ WAS is hanging out in the coin flip range for wet weather and CIN @ PIT is a little worse, with a 60% chance of thunderstorms. I’d also watch ARI @ COL very closely. With the rain out yesterday I imagine they’ll try real hard to get this one in, but just watch out.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Of course, the night’s highest O/U is in Coors field. The Wandy vs. Feldman game has bumped up to a 9 run total and given Feldman is the night’s heaviest favorite at -170, I’d say Vegas has HOU teeing off on Wandy for around 6-7 of those 9 runs. There’s a handful of 7 run O/U games but the biggest favorite in the low scoring affairs is Strasburg who checks in with a -160.
