Chase Anderson is starting in Coors Field tonight and all I can think about is Agent Smith chasing Neo through the Matrix.
Except this time Agent Smith is Jorge Soler (OF: $5,300), who is coming off a 4 for 5 game that included his 12th homer. Mr. Anderson has thus far eluded capture (0.00 ERA in 10 IP), but I’m not buying that he’s suddenly The One. The end of his clean sheet is inevitable.
Let’s take a look at more plays for tonight’s 7-game DraftKings slate that begins at 7:20 p.m. ET:
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The Core (Players who will appear in most of my lineups):
Cristian Javier, P: $10,000 – His velocity has been down a tick, but it hasn’t mattered. He’ll be highly-owned, and he should be.
Luis Castillo, P: $9,200 – He should be able to roll over the A’s. You can get away with paying up for two pitchers today, and I think many will.
Ty France, 1B: $3,900 – BuT hE cAn’T hIt LeFtIeS …remember when they used to say that about Justin Turner? Reverse-splits hitters aren’t a thing.
Edouard Julien, 2B: $2,700 – A pay-down opportunity. Julien has pop and he’ll be batting in the middle of the Twins’ order with the platoon advantage.
Eugenio Suarez, 3B: $4,000 – The Mariners are simply too cheap for this matchup against weak lefty Kyle Muller and the Oakland Awfuls’ bullpen. Here we go again.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF: $3,600 – Teoscar hasn’t been great but his .333 ISO vs. left-handed pitching is right in line with his career norms. Best played in a Mariners’ stack.
The Fades (Highly-owned players I will mostly avoid):
Bailey Ober, P: $8,100 – People are going to see his 1.78 ERA, but the underlying numbers tell a different story (4.55 xFIP). He’s facing the seventh-best offense against right-handed pitching in the slate’s best hitting weather. Nah.
Gavin Stone, P: $5,400 – I get it, he’s talented, and his price tag allows you to get all the bats. Unfortunately, he has one of the worst possible matchups, and he doesn’t have overpowering stuff. There’s a path where he dances around the Braves for five innings and earns 20 DraftKings points, but it feels like we’d be chasing these kind of odds:
The Pivots (low-owned plays I’ll take a chance on):
Jacob Stallings, C: $2,300 – also known as, “whoever happens to be the catcher for the team you’re stacking.”
This brings us to today’s strategy point: the weaker a position is on a given slate, the more you want to incorporate that position into your stack.
On most slates, there won’t be more than a few solid options at catcher, and ownership congregates heavily on these guys. Thankfully, this also means there are only a few guys who could bury you if you pivot elsewhere.
Remember what we hope to get out of our stacks: we’re looking to capture a huge score from our offense as a whole. If that happens, our catcher will get more at bats and more opportunities to join in on the hits, walks, runs, and RBI.
J.P. Crawford, SS: $3,300 – Shortstop is another thin spot tonight. Ownership is likely to land on Garrett Hampson, who isn’t very good, and Bobby Witt, who has struggled much of the season. Don’t be afraid to include Crawford in your Mariners’ stacks, despite the lefty-lefty matchup.
Corbin Burnes, P: $9,000 – The Astros/Brewers game is currently a pick’em. Burnes hasn’t been as good this season as the pitcher who opposes him tonight, but he has the same strikeout prop as Javier, and faces the offense that has been the weaker of the two against right-handed pitching. He’s $1,000 less and will likely carry a third of Javier’s ownership.
Michael Lorenzen, P: $7,800 – The Royals are now the weakest offense against right-handed pitching, and Lorenzen has been very good of late. A warning, however: this is not a guy you want to play as chalk. If he picks up steam across the industry, it might be best to look elsewhere for your second starter.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Keep an eye on Atlanta, which has a chance to see some rain.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I’m looking at the Red Sox/Angels game tonight. In Tanner Houck and Jaime Barria, we have two starters who have been better than their ERA’s suggest. The Red Sox aren’t the same offense on the road, and the Angels should have the bullpen advantage. I’ll take the game to go under 9.5 runs and the Angels to win.
